Extreme and Freak Waves: Results of Measurements and Simulation

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid J. Lopatoukhin ◽  
Alexander V. Boukhanovsky
Keyword(s):  
Wind Waves ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Offshore Structure ◽  
Freak Wave ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Wave Measurements

Main statistical characteristics of wave climate are considered in respect of offshore and ship design. Sophistication of ships and marine platforms and expansion of offshore activities to non-investigated regions means increasing of probability of being damaged by high waves. Hindcasting of wave fields, using the hydrodynamic models is main approach to wave climate investigation. Offshore wave measurements are used, mainly, for model verification. In compliance with existent regulatory documents and accepted practice applied statistical characteristics of wind waves are prescribed to operational and extreme. Operational statistics describe wind and wave conditions for the life span of a ship or an offshore structure. Extreme characteristics determine the so-called “structure survival regime”. There are a lot of approaches to calculations of extreme wave heights at a point (classical unconditional extremes). Their comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. Freak (rogue) waves have some principal difference from extreme wave, mainly due to their form and asymmetry. In this sense freak wave is a multidimensional extreme. Contaminated distribution may be used for probability density approximation of joint extreme and freak wave. The example of recent freak wave event is the loss of ship “Aurelia” (Class of Russian Register of shipping) in February 2005 in the North Pacific. “Aurelia” sunk during passing of atmospheric front with veering wind, changing wind waves. Any wave has at least three dimensions: height, length, and crest length. The last parameter in mean is 3 times greater than wave length. Any information about three dimensional waves is of interest, as such measurements are unique. Some results of unique stereo wave measurements in the South Pacific where the wave as high as 24.9m was fixed (probably still almost the highest measured in the World Ocean), is presented and discussed.

scholarly journals CASPIAN SEA WIND AND WAVE CLIMATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Keyword(s):  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Different Depths ◽  
Sea Wind

The modern approach for wind wave climate estimation is presented. The input for wave calculation by numerical models is reanalysis data. For extreme wave estimation in severe storms the reanalysis data has to be corrected (by regression model as an example). For calculations of wind waves in Caspian Sea SWAN model was used. 40 years continues calculations were made. At the first stage calculations performed for whole the sea, and then these data were used as the first input for detailed calculations for shallow the Northern Caspian Sea. The estimates of extreme wave heights were presented for different depths.

scholarly journals Swell hindcast statistics for the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1815-1829
Author(s):  
Jan-Victor Björkqvist ◽  
Siim Pärt ◽  
Victor Alari ◽  
Sander Rikka ◽  
Elisa Lindgren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Local Wind ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Open Sea ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis

Abstract. The classic characterisation of swell as regular, almost monochromatic, wave trains does not necessarily accurately describe swell in water bodies shielded from the oceanic wave climate. In such enclosed areas the locally generated swell waves still contribute to processes at the air and seabed interfaces, and their presence can be quantified by partitioning wave components based on their speed relative to the wind. We present swell statistics for the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea using 20 years of swell-partitioned model data. The swell significant wave height was mostly under 2 m, and in the winter (DJF) the mean significant swell height was typically less than 0.4 m; higher swell was found in limited nearshore areas. Swell waves were typically short (under 5 s), with mean periods over 8 s being rare. In open-sea areas the average ratio of swell energy (to total energy) was mostly below 0.4 – significantly less than in the World Ocean. Certain coastal areas were swell dominated over half the time, mostly because of weak winds (U<5 m s−1) rather than high swell heights. Swell-dominated events with a swell height over 1 m typically lasted under 10 h. A cross-correlation analysis indicates that swell in the open sea is mostly generated from local wind sea when wind decays (dominant time lag roughly 15 h). Near the coast, however, the results suggest that the swell is partially detached from the local wind waves, although not necessarily from the weather system that generates them because the highest swell typically arrives with a roughly 10 h delay after the low-pressure system has already passed.

Statistics of Extreme and Freak Waves

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonid J. Lopatoukhin ◽  
Alexander V. Boukhanovsky
Keyword(s):  
Wind Waves ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Freak Waves ◽  
Facilities Planning ◽  
Freak Wave ◽  
Port Operation ◽  
Near Shore ◽  
External Reasons

Wind waves are of the main hazards, affecting the human activity and needed for shipbuilding design, near shore facilities, planning and management of coastal and port operation, etc. Wave climate investigations, based on continuous 30-year hindcasting are performed. One of the main results of hindcasting is a set of two-dimensional spectra S(ω,θ) on selected grids and synoptic terms t, in particularly. For statistical generalization as the tools, multivariate statistical analysis is used. Special attention is drawn to point and field extremes. Specific and difference between these two statistics is crucial for solution of some applied problems. Adjusted approaches do not allow investigating phenomena known as freak (or rogue) waves. The main difference between extreme and freak waves is in their unusual form. Probability of freak wave depends from a lot of internal and external reasons. Some approaches are proposed and described in this paper.

scholarly journals Future behavior of wind wave extremes due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hector Lobeto ◽  
Melisa Menendez ◽  
Iñigo J. Losada
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
Ne Pacific ◽  
Change In Mean

AbstractExtreme waves will undergo changes in the future when exposed to different climate change scenarios. These changes are evaluated through the analysis of significant wave height (Hs) return values and are also compared with annual mean Hs projections. Hourly time series are analyzed through a seven-member ensemble of wave climate simulations and changes are estimated in Hs for return periods from 5 to 100 years by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Despite the underlying uncertainty that characterizes extremes, we obtain robust changes in extreme Hs over more than approximately 25% of the ocean surface. The results obtained conclude that increases cover wider areas and are larger in magnitude than decreases for higher return periods. The Southern Ocean is the region where the most robust increase in extreme Hs is projected, showing local increases of over 2 m regardless the analyzed return period under RCP8.5 scenario. On the contrary, the tropical north Pacific shows the most robust decrease in extreme Hs, with local decreases of over 1.5 m. Relevant divergences are found in several ocean regions between the projected behavior of mean and extreme wave conditions. For example, an increase in Hs return values and a decrease in annual mean Hs is found in the SE Indian, NW Atlantic and NE Pacific. Therefore, an extrapolation of the expected change in mean wave conditions to extremes in regions presenting such divergences should be adopted with caution, since it may lead to misinterpretation when used for the design of marine structures or in the evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion.

Downtime Analysis Techniques for Complex Offshore and Dredging Operations

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remmelt J. van der Wal ◽  
Gerrit de Boer
Keyword(s):  
Wind Waves ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Operational Mode ◽  
Offshore Structure ◽  
Hydrodynamic Models ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Made In

Offshore operations in open seas may be seriously affected by the weather. This can lead to a downtime during these operations. The question whether an offshore structure or dredger is able to operate in wind, waves and current is defined as “workability”. In recent decades improvements have been made in the hydrodynamic modelling of offshore structures and dredgers. However, the coupling of these hydrodynamic models with methods to analyse the actual workability for a given offshore operation is less developed. The present paper focuses on techniques to determine the workability (or downtime) in an accurate manner. Two different methods of determining the downtime are described in the paper. The first method is widely used in the industry: prediction of downtime on basis of wave scatter diagrams. The second method is less common but results in a much more reliable downtime estimate: determination of the ‘job duration’ on basis of scenario simulations. The analysis using wave scatter diagrams is simple: the downtime is expressed as a percentage of the time (occurrences) that a certain operation can not be carried out. This method can also be used for a combination of operations however using this approach does not take into account critical events. This can lead to a significant underprediction of the downtime. For the determination of the downtime on basis of scenario simulations long term seastate time records are used. By checking for each subsequent time step which operational mode is applicable and if this mode can be carried out the workability is determined. Past events and weather forecast are taken into account. The two different methods are compared and discussed for a simplified offloading operation from a Catenary Anchor Leg Mooring (CALM) buoy. The differences between the methods will be presented and recommendations for further applications are given.

Hydrodynamic Сonditions of the Bakalskaya Spit Degradation (Western Crimea) over the Past 30 Years

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. V. Divinsky ◽  
R. D. Kosyan ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Wave Impact ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. The paper is aimed at studying the morphodynamic features of the Bakalskaya Spit evolution being influenced by the sea wind waves and swell, namely assessment of inter-annual variations in the alluvial (erosion) areas of the Bakalskaya Spit coastline, analysis of inter-annual variability of the wind wave parameters, determination of the surface wave characteristics (or a combination of a few ones) responsible for the processes of the bottom material erosion or accumulation in the coastal zone. Methods and Results. Based on the analysis of satellite images for 1984–2016, the areas of the bottom material accumulation or erosion of the Bakalskaya Spit coastline were determined. Application of the spectral wave model permitted to obtain time series of the main parameters of wind waves and swell (significant wave heights and propagation directions) in the Bakalskaya Spit coastal zone with the 1 hr time resolution for the period from 1984 to 2016. The characteristics of surface waves responsible for the coastline deformation were revealed using the discriminant analysis. Conclusions. Analysis of satellite images of the spit made it possible to distinguish three periods in the history of the Bakalskaya Spit evolution: 1985–1997, 1998–2007 and 2007–2016. The first period was characterized by relative stability. The strongest erosion took place in 1998; after that the alluvial and erosion cases alternated for 10 years weakly tending to general erosion that constituted the second period. The third one that began in 2007 can be defined as the period of spit degradation accompanied by the irreversible loss of beach material. The basic parameters conditioning hydrodynamics of the Bakalskaya Spit water area are: total duration of storms; average and maximum values of significant heights of wind waves and swell. Statistical characteristics of the wind waves’ parameters are of a fairly strong inter-annual variability. According to the average and maximum indices, the wind waves directed close to the normal to the coastline (WSW and WNW) are the most developed. The applied discriminant analysis permitted to draw a statistically reliable conclusion that the direction of the final (average annual) wave impact on the coastal zone, conditioning the processes of sand accumulation or erosion was set by the waves directed to NNW, at that the swell contribution was dominant. The impact degree is conditioned by strong storms with the directions close to the normal to the coastline, namely, the WSW ones

scholarly journals Automated classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns that drive regional wave climates

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2145-2155 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Pringle ◽  
D. D. Stretch ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Automated Classification ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Wave Heights

Abstract. Wave climates are fundamental drivers of coastal vulnerability; changing trends in wave heights, periods and directions can severely impact a coastline. In a diverse storm environment, the changes in these parameters are difficult to detect and quantify. Since wave climates are linked to atmospheric circulation patterns, an automated and objective classification scheme was developed to explore links between synoptic-scale circulation patterns and wave climate variables, specifically wave heights. The algorithm uses a set of objective functions based on wave heights to guide the classification and find atmospheric classes with strong links to wave behaviour. Spatially distributed fuzzy numbers define the classes and are used to detect locally high- and low-pressure anomalies. Classes are derived through a process of simulated annealing. The optimized classification focuses on extreme wave events. The east coast of South Africa was used as a case study. The results show that three dominant patterns drive extreme wave events. The circulation patterns exhibit some seasonality with one pattern present throughout the year. Some 50–80% of the extreme wave events are explained by these three patterns. It is evident that strong low-pressure anomalies east of the country drive a wind towards the KwaZulu-Natal coastline which results in extreme wave conditions. We conclude that the methodology can be used to link circulation patterns to wave heights within a diverse storm environment. The circulation patterns agree with qualitative observations of wave climate drivers. There are applications to the assessment of coastal vulnerability and the management of coastlines worldwide.

scholarly journals Automated classification of the atmospheric circulation patterns that drive regional wave climates

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1127-1151
Author(s):  
J. Pringle ◽  
D. D. Stretch ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Automated Classification ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Extreme Wave ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Objective Classification

Abstract. Wave climates are fundamental drivers of coastal vulnerability and changing trends in wave height, period and direction can severely impact coastlines. In a diverse storm environment, the changes in these parameters are difficult to detect and quantify. Since wave climates are linked to atmospheric circulation patterns an automated and objective classification scheme was developed to explore links between synoptic scale circulation patterns and wave climate variables, specifically wave heights. The algorithm uses a set of objective functions based on wave heights to guide the classification. Fuzzy rules define classification types that are used to detect locally high and low pressure anomalies through a process of simulated annealing. The optimized classification focuses on extreme wave events. The east coast of South Africa was used as a case study. The results show that three dominant patterns drive extreme wave events. The circulation patterns exhibit some seasonality with one pattern present throughout the year. Some 50–80% of the extreme wave events are explained by these three patterns. It is evident that strong low pressure anomalies east of the country drive a wind towards the KwaZulu-Natal coastline which results in extreme wave conditions. We conclude that the methodology can be used to link circulation patterns to wave heights within a diverse storm environment. The circulation patterns agree with qualitative observations of wave climate drivers. There are applications to the assessment of coastal vulnerability and the management of coastlines worldwide.

scholarly journals MECHANICAL STRENGTH OF COAL: METHODS OF DETERMINATION AND FACTORS OF INFLUENCE (REVIEW)

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 4-17
Author(s):  
V.V Koval ◽  
D.V. Miroshnichenko ◽  
O.V. Bogoyavlenska
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Strength ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Physical And Mechanical Properties ◽  
Mechanical Tests ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Measuring Instruments ◽  
Industrial Processing ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages

The article substantiates the importance and problems of determining of such an indicator of the quality of solid fossil fuels, as mechanical strength. The strength of coal depends on a large number of factors (viscosity, brittleness, properties of structural bonds, etc.), the change of which is impossible to take into account. Therefore, the strength of coal in the sample, piece, pack and formation must be represented by some integral index, which inevitably fluctuates around a certain average value and can be determined only approximately. The evaluation of the strength properties of coal should be carried out on the basis of mass tests using statistical methods that allow to calculate the average value and coefficient of variation. Since the strength dispersion is mainly due to the natural inhomogeneity of the coal, the excessive accuracy of the measuring instruments has almost no effect on the statistical characteristics. Laboratory methods of mechanical tests of mine samples, in comparison with full-scale, as a rule, are very accessible and, at qualitative performance of tests, are highly reliable. The properties of coal as an object of enrichment and use are largely related to its physical properties. The physical properties of coal and mineral impurities significantly affect the formation of the main parameters that characterize the particle size distribution and fractional composition, it`s changes during the mining, transportation and enrichment processes. The basic physical and mechanical properties of solid fuels from the point of view of their industrial processing have been listed, the review has been made of the most widespread methods of study of coals mechanical durability and the equipment used for these purposes. The main advantages and disadvantages have been summarized of these methods, as well as their relationship. The factors have been Indicated tinfluencing the mechanical strength of coal. The expediency of using existing methods from the point of view of informativeness for thesphere of its application has been estimated. The methods common in the coal processing industry are considered in more detail. Keywords: coal, solid fuel mining, mechanical strength, determination methods, influencing factors, grinding strength, crushing index. Corresponding author V.V. Koval, e-mail: [email protected]

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