scholarly journals Geomagnetic field declination: from decadal to centennial scales

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venera Dobrica ◽  
Crisan Demetrescu ◽  
Mioara Mandea
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Secular Variation ◽  
Time Derivative ◽  
Major Constituent ◽  
Decadal Time Scale ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Geomagnetic Jerks ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
Reconstructed Time Series

Abstract. Declination annual means time-series longer than a century provided by 24 geomagnetic observatories world-wide, together with 5 Western European reconstructed declination series over the last four centuries have been analyzed in terms of frequency constituents of the secular variation at inter-decadal and sub-centennial time-scales of 20–35 and, respectively, 70–90 years. Observatory and reconstructed time-series have been processed by several types of filtering, namely Hodrick-Prescott, running averages, and Butterworth. The Hodrick-Prescott filtering allows to separate a quasi-oscillation at decadal time scale, supposed to be related to external variations and called ’11-year constituent’, from a long-term trend. The latter has been decomposed in two other oscillations, called ‘inter-decadal’ and ‘sub-centennial’ constituents by applying a Butterworth filtering with cutoffs at 30 and 73 years, respectively. The analysis shows that the generally accepted geomagnetic jerks occur around extrema in the time derivative of the trend and coincide with extrema in the time derivative of the 11-year constituent. The sub-centennial constituent is traced back to 1600, in the five 400-year long time-series, and shows to be a major constituent of the secular variation, geomagnetic jerks included.

scholarly journals Geomagnetic field declination: from decadal to centennial scales

Solid Earth ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Venera Dobrica ◽  
Crisan Demetrescu ◽  
Mioara Mandea
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Secular Variation ◽  
Time Derivative ◽  
Major Constituent ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Geomagnetic Jerks ◽  
Reconstructed Time Series ◽  
Mean Time ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Declination annual mean time series longer than 1 century provided by 24 geomagnetic observatories worldwide, together with 5 Western European reconstructed declination series over the last 4 centuries, have been analyzed in terms of the frequency constituents of the secular variation at inter-decadal and sub-centennial timescales of 20–35 and 70–90 years. Observatory and reconstructed time series have been processed by several types of filtering, namely Hodrick–Prescott, running averages, and Butterworth. The Hodrick–Prescott filtering allows us to separate a quasi-oscillation at a decadal timescale, which is assumed to be related to external variations and called the 11-year constituent, from a long-term trend. The latter has been decomposed into two other oscillations called inter-decadal and sub-centennial constituents by applying a Butterworth filtering with cutoffs at 30 and 73 years, respectively. The analysis shows that the generally accepted geomagnetic jerks occur around extrema in the time derivative of the trend and coincide with extrema in the time derivative of the 11-year constituent. The sub-centennial constituent is traced back to 1600 in the five 400-year-long time series and seems to be a major constituent of the secular variation, geomagnetic jerks included.

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

scholarly journals The sdB pulsating star V391 Peg and its putative giant planet revisited after 13 years of time-series photometric data

2018 ◽  
Vol 611 ◽  
pp. A85 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Silvotti ◽  
S. Schuh ◽  
S.-L. Kim ◽  
R. Lutz ◽  
M. Reed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Previous Analysis ◽  
Time Derivative ◽  
Giant Planet ◽  
Sine Wave ◽  
Pulsation Period ◽  
Pulsation Frequency ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Term Variation

V391 Peg (alias HS 2201+2610) is a subdwarf B (sdB) pulsating star that shows both p- and g-modes. By studying the arrival times of the p-mode maxima and minima through the O–C method, in a previous article the presence of a planet was inferred with an orbital period of 3.2 years and a minimum mass of 3.2 MJup. Here we present an updated O–C analysis using a larger data set of 1066 h of photometric time series (~2.5× larger in terms of the number of data points), which covers the period between 1999 and 2012 (compared with 1999–2006 of the previous analysis). Up to the end of 2008, the new O–C diagram of the main pulsation frequency (f1) is compatible with (and improves) the previous two-component solution representing the long-term variation of the pulsation period (parabolic component) and the giant planet (sine wave component). Since 2009, the O–C trend of f1 changes, and the time derivative of the pulsation period (p.) passes from positive to negative; the reason of this change of regime is not clear and could be related to nonlinear interactions between different pulsation modes. With the new data, the O–C diagram of the secondary pulsation frequency (f2) continues to show two components (parabola and sine wave), like in the previous analysis. Various solutions are proposed to fit the O–C diagrams of f1 and f2, but in all of them, the sinusoidal components of f1 and f2 differ or at least agree less well than before. The nice agreement found previously was a coincidence due to various small effects that are carefully analyzed. Now, with a larger dataset, the presence of a planet is more uncertain and would require confirmation with an independent method. The new data allow us to improve the measurement of p. for f1 and f2: using only the data up to the end of 2008, we obtain p.1 = (1.34 ± 0.04) × 10−12 and p.2 = (1.62 ± 0.22) × 10−12. The long-term variation of the two main pulsation periods (and the change of sign of p.1) is visible also in direct measurements made over several years. The absence of peaks near f1 in the Fourier transform and the secondary peak close to f2 confirm a previous identification as l = 0 and l = 1, respectively, and suggest a stellar rotation period of about 40 days. The new data allow constraining the main g-mode pulsation periods of the star.

scholarly journals Aerosol decadal trends – Part 2: In-situ aerosol particle number concentrations at GAW and ACTRIS stations

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 895-916 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Asmi ◽  
M. Collaud Coen ◽  
J. A. Ogren ◽  
E. Andrews ◽  
P. Sheridan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Aerosol Particle ◽  
Particle Number ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Infrastructure Project

Abstract. We have analysed the trends of total aerosol particle number concentrations (N) measured at long-term measurement stations involved either in the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and/or EU infrastructure project ACTRIS. The sites are located in Europe, North America, Antarctica, and on Pacific Ocean islands. The majority of the sites showed clear decreasing trends both in the full-length time series, and in the intra-site comparison period of 2001–2010, especially during the winter months. Several potential driving processes for the observed trends were studied, and even though there are some similarities between N trends and air temperature changes, the most likely cause of many northern hemisphere trends was found to be decreases in the anthropogenic emissions of primary particles, SO2 or some co-emitted species. We could not find a consistent agreement between the trends of N and particle optical properties in the few stations with long time series of all of these properties. The trends of N and the proxies for cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) were generally consistent in the few European stations where the measurements were available. This work provides a useful comparison analysis for modelling studies of trends in aerosol number concentrations.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Assessment of Performances of Long Time-Series LAI, FVC and GPP Products over Mountainous Areas: A Case Study in the Three-River Source Region, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Wenqi Zhang ◽  
Huaan Jin ◽  
Ainong Li ◽  
Huaiyong Shao ◽  
Xinyao Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Vegetation Activity ◽  
Long Time

Vegetation biophysical products offer unique opportunities to examine long-term vegetation dynamics and land surface phenology (LSP). It is important to understand the time-series performances of various global biophysical products for global change research. However, few endeavors have been dedicated to assessing the performances of long-term change characteristics or LSP extraction derived from different satellite products, especially in mountainous areas with highly fragmented and rugged surfaces. In this paper, we assessed the time-series characteristics and LSP detections of Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) leaf area index (LAI), fractional vegetation cover (FVC), and gross primary production (GPP) products across the Three-River Source Region (TRSR). The performances of products’ temporal agreements and their statistical relationship as a function of topographic indices and heterogeneous pixels, respectively, were investigated through intercomparison among three products during the period 2000 to 2018. The results show that the phenological differences between FVC and two other products are beyond 10 days over more than 35% of the pixels in TRSR. The long-term trend of FVC diverges significantly from GPP and LAI for 13.96% of the total pixels, and the percentages of mismatched pixels between FVC and two other products are 33.24% in the correlation comparison. Moreover, good agreements are observed between GPP and LAI, both in terms of LSP and interannual variations. Finally, the LSP and long-term dynamics of the three products exhibit poor performances on heterogeneous surfaces and complex topographic areas, which reflects the potential impacts of environmental factors and algorithmic imperfections on the quality and performances of different products. Our study highlights the spatiotemporal disparities in detections of surface vegetation activity in mountainous areas by using different biophysical products. Future global change studies may require multiple high-quality satellite products with long-term stability as data support.

scholarly journals Potential and Challenges of Harmonizing 40 Years of AVHRR Data: The TIMELINE Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 3618
Author(s):  
Stefan Dech ◽  
Stefanie Holzwarth ◽  
Sarah Asam ◽  
Thorsten Andresen ◽  
Martin Bachmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Medium Resolution ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Earth Observation Satellite

Earth Observation satellite data allows for the monitoring of the surface of our planet at predefined intervals covering large areas. However, there is only one medium resolution sensor family in orbit that enables an observation time span of 40 and more years at a daily repeat interval. This is the AVHRR sensor family. If we want to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on our environment, we can only do so based on data that remains available for several decades. If we then want to investigate processes with respect to climate change, we need very high temporal resolution enabling the generation of long-term time series and the derivation of related statistical parameters such as mean, variability, anomalies, and trends. The challenges to generating a well calibrated and harmonized 40-year-long time series based on AVHRR sensor data flown on 14 different platforms are enormous. However, only extremely thorough pre-processing and harmonization ensures that trends found in the data are real trends and not sensor-related (or other) artefacts. The generation of European-wide time series as a basis for the derivation of a multitude of parameters is therefore an extremely challenging task, the details of which are presented in this paper.

scholarly journals Mediterranean Sea climatic indices: monitoring long-term variability and climate changes

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1829-1842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasia Iona ◽  
Athanasios Theodorou ◽  
Sarantis Sofianos ◽  
Sylvain Watelet ◽  
Charles Troupin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Salt Content ◽  
Climatic Indices ◽  
Long Time ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. We present a new product composed of a set of thermohaline climatic indices from 1950 to 2015 for the Mediterranean Sea such as decadal temperature and salinity anomalies, their mean values over selected depths, decadal ocean heat and salt content anomalies at selected depth layers as well as their long time series. It is produced from a new high-resolution climatology of temperature and salinity on a 1∕8∘ regular grid based on historical high-quality in situ observations. Ocean heat and salt content differences between 1980–2015 and 1950–1979 are compared for evaluation of the climate shift in the Mediterranean Sea. The two successive periods are chosen according to the standard WMO climate normals. The spatial patterns of heat and salt content shifts demonstrate that the climate changes differently in the several regions of the basin. Long time series of heat and salt content for the period 1950 to 2015 are also provided which indicate that in the Mediterranean Sea there is a net mean volume warming and salinification since 1950 that has accelerated during the last two decades. The time series also show that the ocean heat content seems to fluctuate on a cycle of about 40 years and seems to follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate cycle, indicating that the natural large-scale atmospheric variability could be superimposed onto the warming trend. This product is an observation-based estimation of the Mediterranean climatic indices. It relies solely on spatially interpolated data produced from in situ observations averaged over decades in order to smooth the decadal variability and reveal the long-term trends. It can provide a valuable contribution to the modellers' community, next to the satellite-based products, and serve as a baseline for the evaluation of climate-change model simulations, thus contributing to a better understanding of the complex response of the Mediterranean Sea to the ongoing global climate change. The product is available in netCDF at the following sources: annual and seasonal T∕S anomalies (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1408832), annual and seasonal T∕S vertical averaged anomalies (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1408929), annual and seasonal areal density of OHC/OSC anomalies (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1408877), annual and seasonal linear trends of T∕S, OHC/OSC anomalies (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1408917), annual and seasonal time series of T∕S, OHC/OSC anomalies (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1411398), and differences of two 30-year averages of annual and seasonal T∕S, OHC/OSC anomalies (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1408903).

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends in 20-Day Cumulative Precipitation for Residential Rainwater Harvesting in Poland

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1932 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fausto A. Canales ◽  
Joanna Gwoździej-Mazur ◽  
Piotr Jadwiszczak ◽  
Joanna Struk-Sokołowska ◽  
Katarzyna Wartalska ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Integrated Water Management ◽  
Operation Conditions ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Availability Index

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) for domestic uses is widely regarded as an economic and ecological solution in water conservation and storm management programs. This paper aims at evaluating long-term trends in 20-day cumulative rainfall periods per year in Poland, for assessing its impact on the design and operation conditions for RWH systems and resource availability. The time-series employed corresponds to a set of 50-year long time-series of rainfall (from 1970 to 2019) recorded at 19 synoptic meteorological stations scattered across Poland, one of the European countries with the lowest water availability index. The methods employed for assessing trends were the Mann–Kendall test (M–K) and the Sen’s slope estimator. Most of the datasets exhibit stationary behaviour during the 50-year long period, however, statistically significant downward trends were detected for precipitations in Wrocław and Opole. The findings of this study are valuable assets for integrated water management and sustainable planning in Poland.

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