scholarly journals Grey Forecasting of Inbound Tourism to Bali and Financial Loses from the COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-57
Author(s):  
Irsyad Yoga ◽  
I Gede Agus Yudiarta
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Statistical Agency

Management and planning in the Indonesian tourism industry is an important matter. It involves responding to changes and uncertain conditions, especially in the tourism industry sector in Bali, Indonesia. Bali is a tourist spot that relies on foreign tourists. When a situation is not conducive, such as the COVID-19 outbreak that befell unexpectedly, proper management and planning are challenging without accurate forecasts. The current study used the Even Grey Forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ) to forecast the number of tourists to Bali, a famous tourist spot in Indonesia, and the approximate financial loss incurred from the pandemic in 2020 is quantified. These objectives are achieved through the data collected from the Bali statistical agency and analyzed through the grey model and some mathematical computations. The results indicated that the pandemic's impact on inbound tourism was severe, and the economy needs some time to recover. The study reported a loss of more than $7.3 billion to Bali due to the COVID-19 outbreak. It is possibly the first study of its kind, and its findings are important for the policy-makers, Tour & Travel service providers, and tourism-related businesses.  

scholarly journals Earthquake forecasting model for Nepal to improve prevention

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 700-701
Author(s):  
Brijesh Sathian ◽  
Edwin R Van Teijlingen
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Governmental Organizations ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
Per Se

There is an urgent need of earthquake forecasting model for Nepal in this current scenario. It can be developed by the scientists of Nepal with the help of experienced international scientists. This will help the Nepalese to take timely and necessary precautions. We would argue that above all we need to use earthquake prediction knowledge to improve the disaster prepardness in local communities, service providers (hospitals, Non-Governmental Organizations, police, etc.), government policy-makers and international agencies. On the whole, both seismology and public health are most successful when focusing on  prevention not on prediction per se. J Epidemiol. 2017;7(4); 700-701.

Grey Forecasting of the Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil to India

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-68
Author(s):  
Ferta Monamaulisa Septyari
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Error Measurement ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Increasing Trend

Palm oil is one of the leading export commodities of Indonesia. Knowing demand in advance can help policy-makers better prepare for the situation. India is one of the major importers of Indonesian palm oil. The study forecasted the Indonesian palm oil's exports to India from till 2025 using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analyses with Linear regression and exponential regression showed that the grey forecasting technique is relatively more accurate to forecast palm oil exports despite huge uncertainty in the data trend. The secondary data on Indonesian palm oil exports to India from 2011-2018 was obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Mean absolute percentage error was used for error measurement. Despite uncertainty in data, the results show an increasing trend in palm oil exports.  

The Analysis and Forecast about the Supply and Demand of China's Rubber Raw Materials Based on Grey Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 404 ◽  
pp. 796-801
Author(s):  
Zhao Jun Wang ◽  
Zhou Lin ◽  
Shuai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Rubber Industry ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Synthetic Rubber ◽  
The Status

The rubber industry is an important sector in the national economy. The article took the natural rubber and synthetic rubber as the main studying objects to analyze and forecast the amount of supply and demand of Chinas rubber raw materials. Analyzed the status of supply and demand of Chinas rubber raw materials from 2006 to 2011, and established the Grey Forecasting Model to forecast the supply and demand from 2012 to 2017 in China, and concluded that the prosperous supply and demand of rubber raw materials would be continued in the future.

Destination Marketing: Optimizing Resource Allocation Using Modern Portfolio Theory

2021 ◽  
pp. 004728752110250
Author(s):  
Khairil Johar ◽  
David Tan ◽  
Yun Maung ◽  
Ian Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Demand Elasticity ◽  
Destination Marketing ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Direct Guidance ◽  
Visitor Survey ◽  
Tourism Flows ◽  
Marketing Budget

Despite the significant contribution that tourism generates for national economic health, the tourism industry is challenged by seasonal and periodic volatility in arrivals. This volatility causes inefficiencies in the allocation of a destination’s resources. Policy makers and operators prefer a steady and constant inflow of tourists. Though prior studies have applied a portfolio optimization approach to inbound tourism flows, this study is the first to consider the destination’s marketing budget and each tourism markets’ heterogeneous marketing expenditure–demand elasticity. Our model provides destination marketing organizations with direct guidance as to how to allocate their marketing budget to facilitate portfolio profiles that are efficient from a risk-reward perspective, and that are attainable given budget constraints and known marketing expenditure–demand elasticity patterns. Using Tourism Research Australia International Visitor Survey data, we find that variability in tourism fluctuations can be reduced and inbound tourism numbers/spending significantly increased by implementing smarter (data-driven) marketing budget allocations.

scholarly journals Using a Novel Grey System Model to Forecast Natural Gas Consumption in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lifeng Wu ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Haijun Chen ◽  
Na Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
New Information ◽  
Gas Consumption

Accurate prediction of the future energy needs is crucial for energy management. This work presents a novel grey forecasting model that integrates the principle of new information priority into accumulated generation. This grey model can better reflect the priority of the new information theoretically. The results of two practical examples demonstrate that this grey model provides very remarkable short-term predication performance compared with traditional grey forecasting model for limited data set forecasting. It is applied to Chinese gas consumption forecasting to show its superiority and applicability.

scholarly journals Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Singapore using Grey Model with Cramer’s Rule

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-445
Author(s):  
Assif Shamim Mustaffa Sulaiman ◽  
Ani Shabri
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Fossil Carbon ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Cramer’S Rule

This article analyses and forecasts carbon dioxide () emissions in Singapore for the 2012 to 2016 period. The study analysed the data using grey forecasting model with Cramer’s rule to calculate the best SOGM(2,1) model with the highest accuracy of precision compared to conventional grey forecasting model. According to the forecasted result, the fitted values using SOGM(2,1) model has a higher accuracy precision with better capability in handling information to fit larger scale of uncertain feature compared to other conventional grey forecasting models. This article offers insightful information to policymakers in Singapore to develop better renewable energy instruments to combat the greater issues of global warming and reducing the fossil carbon dioxide emissions into the environment.

Service Providers’ Behaviour in Light of Developing the Medical Tourism Industry in Malaysia: At the Expense of Local Patients?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 101
Author(s):  
Herwina Rosnan ◽  
Norzayana Yusof
Keyword(s):  
Medical Tourism ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
International Publishing ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Depth Interviews

Despite the concern that medical tourism causes local patients to be neglected, this article attempts to prove the otherwise. Ten in-depth interviews were conducted with doctors and private hospitals that serve medical tourists. Through Atlas.ti version 8, our interviews found that the locals are still the primary focus as medical tourists only take about 10% on average of the total patients in these hospitals. Further, hospitals are bound to Act 586 by the central government. This research suggests for the policy-makers to take the necessary proactive actions in developing the medical tourism industry while simultaneously catering for the locals’ needs.Keywords: Medical Tourism; Local Patients; Public Healthcare; Healthcare EquityeISSN: 2398-4287© 2019. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA cE-Bsby e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BYNC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, UniversitiTeknologi MARA, Malaysia.DOI: https://doi.org/10.21834/e-bpj.v4i11.1714

scholarly journals Demand Forecasting of Toyota Avanza Cars in Indonesia: Grey Systems Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Fitrah Amalia Arsy
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Developing Strategy ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Car Sales ◽  
The Mean

Toyota Avanza car is a popular four-wheeler among Indonesia middle-class customers. The current study aims to forecast the demand for Toyota Avanza cars in Indonesia in the next six years using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analysis of the results obtained from the grey model with those of Linear Regression, Exponential Regression, and Exponential Triple Smoothing techniques revealed the superiority of the grey model as it produced most accurate forecasts. The accuracy was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results revealed, the car sales are likely to decline in the future. Although forecasts are never completely accurate, forecasting can provide a reference for developing strategy to meet future demand. The results are important for Toyota Avanza car manufacturers in Indonesia.  

Prioritizing Strategic Factors of Creative Tourism Industry in Iran by Analytic Network Process (ANP)

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 553-565
Author(s):  
Reza Kiani Mavi ◽  
Hamed Gheibdoust ◽  
Ahmad A. Khanfar
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Business Support ◽  
Network Process ◽  
Strategic Factors ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
Strategic Policies

Nowadays, it is obvious that creative tourism industry has become very essential for countries and societies; therefore, governments work on constituting policies in order to develop this industry. To be successful in improving creative tourism industry, governments should identify the influential factors and focus on ones that are more important rather than investing a bit on many different factors. Because of the interrelations among factors, this research is aiming to prioritize factors that influence strategic policies of creative tourism industry in Iran using analytic network process (ANP). Data were collected during the period of May 2017 to February 2018. Participants in this research are 13 tourism experts with more than 10 years' experience in the field. Results show that the most influential criterion is "business support" and the most influential subcriterion is "supporting midsize businesses." This study helps policy makers to improve creative tourism by emphasizing on those factors that have high priority from the viewpoint of strategic policy-making.

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