Grey Forecasting of the Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil to India

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-68
Author(s):  
Ferta Monamaulisa Septyari
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Error Measurement ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Increasing Trend

Palm oil is one of the leading export commodities of Indonesia. Knowing demand in advance can help policy-makers better prepare for the situation. India is one of the major importers of Indonesian palm oil. The study forecasted the Indonesian palm oil's exports to India from till 2025 using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analyses with Linear regression and exponential regression showed that the grey forecasting technique is relatively more accurate to forecast palm oil exports despite huge uncertainty in the data trend. The secondary data on Indonesian palm oil exports to India from 2011-2018 was obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Mean absolute percentage error was used for error measurement. Despite uncertainty in data, the results show an increasing trend in palm oil exports.  

scholarly journals Demand Forecasting of Toyota Avanza Cars in Indonesia: Grey Systems Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Fitrah Amalia Arsy
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Developing Strategy ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Car Sales ◽  
The Mean

Toyota Avanza car is a popular four-wheeler among Indonesia middle-class customers. The current study aims to forecast the demand for Toyota Avanza cars in Indonesia in the next six years using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analysis of the results obtained from the grey model with those of Linear Regression, Exponential Regression, and Exponential Triple Smoothing techniques revealed the superiority of the grey model as it produced most accurate forecasts. The accuracy was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results revealed, the car sales are likely to decline in the future. Although forecasts are never completely accurate, forecasting can provide a reference for developing strategy to meet future demand. The results are important for Toyota Avanza car manufacturers in Indonesia.  

scholarly journals Grey Forecasting of Inbound Tourism to Bali and Financial Loses from the COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-57
Author(s):  
Irsyad Yoga ◽  
I Gede Agus Yudiarta
Keyword(s):  
Service Providers ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
Statistical Agency

Management and planning in the Indonesian tourism industry is an important matter. It involves responding to changes and uncertain conditions, especially in the tourism industry sector in Bali, Indonesia. Bali is a tourist spot that relies on foreign tourists. When a situation is not conducive, such as the COVID-19 outbreak that befell unexpectedly, proper management and planning are challenging without accurate forecasts. The current study used the Even Grey Forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ) to forecast the number of tourists to Bali, a famous tourist spot in Indonesia, and the approximate financial loss incurred from the pandemic in 2020 is quantified. These objectives are achieved through the data collected from the Bali statistical agency and analyzed through the grey model and some mathematical computations. The results indicated that the pandemic's impact on inbound tourism was severe, and the economy needs some time to recover. The study reported a loss of more than $7.3 billion to Bali due to the COVID-19 outbreak. It is possibly the first study of its kind, and its findings are important for the policy-makers, Tour & Travel service providers, and tourism-related businesses.  

Improved Grey Forecasting Model for Taiwans Green Accounting

2013 ◽  
Vol 404 ◽  
pp. 398-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching I Lin ◽  
Shin Li Lu ◽  
Shih Hung Tai
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Environmental Costs ◽  
Green Accounting ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
A Value ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
The Mean

This paper applies the grey forecasting model to forecast the green accounting of Taiwan from 2002 to 2010. Green accounting is an effective economic indicator of human environmental and natural resources protection. Generally, Green accounting is a type of accounting that attempts to factor environmental costs into the financial results of operations. This paper modifies the original GM(1,1) model to improve prediction accuracy in green accounting and also provide a value reference for government in drafting relevant economic and environmental policies. Empirical study shows that the mean absolute percentage error of RGM(1,1) model is 2.05% lower than GM(1,1) and AGM(1,1), respectively. Results are very encouraging as the RGM(1,1) forecasting model clearly enhances the prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Indonesian Trade Deficit with China: Background and Grey Forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-46
Author(s):  
Cliford Septian Candra ◽  
Jason Adrian ◽  
Varren Christian Lim
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Exponential Regression ◽  
The Past ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model ◽  
Internal And External Factors

Indonesia's trade balance with China has remained negative since 2010. The current study forecasts Indonesia's trade deficit with China for five years using the Even Grey Forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ). The sample was conducted by collecting the data of traded deficits for the past ten years. Data were collected from the official websites of Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics of (BPS), Ministry of Trade, among others. By building upon the literature, the study argues that trade deficits might have occurred from internal and external factors, such as the lack of infrastructure, the depreciation of the Rupiah (Indonesian currency) against the U.S. dollar, and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Comparative analysis with Linear Regression (LR), Exponential Regression (ER), and Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) revealed the superiority of the grey forecasting model for trade deficit prediction. The study found that the trade deficit was minimum during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also showed an increasing trade deficit in the post-COVID period. The study concludes with some recommendations for Indonesia to minimize the trade deficit.  

Study on Causes of Female Infertility at National Ayurveda Teaching Hospital, Borella, Sri Lanka: A Survey Based Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 249-252
Author(s):  
Farzana MUZN ◽  
Arshiya Sultana
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Married Women ◽  
Female Infertility ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Complex Disorder ◽  
Anovulatory Cycle ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
One Year

Background: Infertility is defined as the inability to conceive after at least one year of unprotected intercourse. It is a complex disorder with significant medical, psychosocial, and economic problems. In about one third of couples are infertile. Approximately 167 million married women aged 15-49 years in developing countries were infertility. The present study aimed to determine the most common causes of female infertility in patients who visiting the National Ayuvedic Teaching Hospital, Borella, Sri Lanka. Methods: In this study 635 infertile (primary and secondary) women were selected to determine the causes of infertility. The subjects were selected from the gynecology clinic, between the periods of February 2015 to March 2016. The data were gathered using a questionnaire; and after that proper statistical method was applied to analyze the data. Results: From the results age between 28-37 years (37.16%) are more prevalent to infertility and the causes of infertility are mainly due to anovulatory cycle (31.18%) and menstrual irregularities (19.21%). BMI also one of the significant cause for infertility. Conclusion: Therefore, identifying the risk factors and proper treatment on time along with policy makers providing facilities to resolve the infertility could possible diverse this alarming increasing trend of infertility.

Penguatan Wilayah Perbatasan: Studi Kasus Pulau Sebatik Kabupaten Nunukan Provinsi Kalimantan Timur

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Baskoro Wicaksono
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Research Strategy ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
East Kalimantan ◽  
Border Policy

This study describes the border management policy conducted by the central government, provinceof East Kalimantan and Nunukan. Policies such as the establishment of regulatory, institutionalstrengthening, programs and infrastructure development. The policy is getting good responsefrom the elite and the masses. On the other hand policy makers have expectations of localcommunities border synergism Sebatik Island in order to build and develop the border areas so asto break the chain of dependence on Malaysia. The research was conducted in Sebatik Island,East Kalimantan province Nunukan with the formulation of the problem (a) what policies areoriented to maintain borders, (b) How is the public response to government policy, (c) What areyour expectations of policy makers in local communities to regional border. This study usedqualitative methods to phenomenological research strategy. Techniques of data collection in thisstudy using two ways, namely in-depth interviews and secondary data view Results indicate thatthe existing policy of both the central and provincial to district borders do not solve the problembecause it is made on the island of Sebatik with other border regions. The policy does not includelocal knowledge, where it is desperately needed by the people Sebatik. In addition to policies onprograms and infrastructure development of the center, the district adopted a policy of inactionagainst the illegal cross-border trade, which on the one hand against the rules but if enforced thenpeople can not perform economic activities that impact well-being. Policies like this gets a positiveresponse from the public. Expectations for the future border policy is to load local content orlocal knowledge.Keyword: border policy, local knowledge, dependent relationship

An Analysis of the Link between Water Infrastructure Financing and Water Provision South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 74-83
Author(s):  
Lerato C. Bapela ◽  
Collins C. Ngwakwe ◽  
Mokoko P. Sebola
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Water Infrastructure ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Infrastructure Finance ◽  
Water Provision

This paper evaluated the relationship between water infrastructure financing and water provision in South Africa. The research followed a quantitative research design; secondary data for water infrastructure financing and water provision in South Africa was obtained from the Trans - Caledon Tunneling Agency (TCTA) and the World Bank for the period 1994 - 2014 . The regression results indicated two separate findings which offers unique contribution to the current literature; results from water asset finance as a single independent variable on water provision showed a significant relationship. However, an addition of two control variables , corruption and violence, neutralised the effectiveness of water asset finance on water provision to the extent that water asset finance became less significant with a P value of 0.05. The paper makes a nuance contribution from the findings, which specifically is that finance alone may not deliver target water provision if corruption and violence is left unbridled. The paper thus recommends the need for public policy makers to control the rate of corruption and violence to enable effective application of water infrastructure finance in water provision. The paper also recommends the need for further research on other government departments to integrate corruption and violence as control variables. 

Study of a discrete grey forecasting model based on the quality cost characteristic curve

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Sifeng Liu ◽  
Zhigeng Fang ◽  
Xiaoyu Yang ◽  
Qian Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Cost Models ◽  
Quality Cost ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grey Forecasting ◽  
Grey Forecasting Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to clarify several commonly used quality cost models based on Juran’s characteristic curve. Through mathematical deduction, the lowest point of quality cost and the lowest level of quality level (often depicted by qualification rate) can be obtained. This paper also aims to introduce a new prediction model, namely discrete grey model (DGM), to forecast the changing trend of quality cost. Design/methodology/approach This paper comes to the conclusion by means of mathematical deduction. To make it more clear, the authors get the lowest quality level and the lowest quality cost by taking the derivative of the equation of quality cost and quality level. By introducing the weakening buffer operator, the authors can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of DGM. Findings This paper demonstrates that DGM can be used to forecast quality cost based on Juran’s cost characteristic curve, especially when the authors do not have much information or the sample capacity is rather small. When operated by practical weakening buffer operator, the randomness of time series can be obviously weakened and the prediction accuracy can be significantly improved. Practical implications This paper uses a real case from a literature to verify the validity of discrete grey forecasting model, getting the conclusion that there is a certain degree of feasibility and rationality of DGM to forecast the variation tendency of quality cost. Originality/value This paper perfects the theory of quality cost based on Juran’s characteristic curve and expands the scope of application of grey system theory.

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