Grey Forecasting of the Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil to India

Palm oil is one of the leading export commodities of Indonesia. Knowing demand in advance can help policy-makers better prepare for the situation. India is one of the major importers of Indonesian palm oil. The study forecasted the Indonesian palm oil's exports to India from till 2025 using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analyses with Linear regression and exponential regression showed that the grey forecasting technique is relatively more accurate to forecast palm oil exports despite huge uncertainty in the data trend. The secondary data on Indonesian palm oil exports to India from 2011-2018 was obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Mean absolute percentage error was used for error measurement. Despite uncertainty in data, the results show an increasing trend in palm oil exports.

A New Information Priority Accumulated Grey Model with Hyperbolic Sinusoidal Term and its Application

Compared to fossil fuels, natural gas is cleaner energy, which has developed rapidly in recent years. Studying the urban supply of natural gas has implications for the development of natural gas. In this paper, the new information priority accumulation method is integrated into the grey forecasting model with the hyperbolic sinusoidal driving term, and then the new grey model is used to predict the urban natural gas supply. The system's linear parameters are calculated by the least square estimation method, and the optimal parameter of the new information accumulated priority is determined by the Whale Optimization Algorithm. Finally, the supply of urban gas is forecasted using the proposed model, and comparative analyses with the four other forecasting models are presented.

Taguchi Grey Relational Optimization of the Multi-mechanical Characteristics of Kaolin Reinforced Hydroxyapatite: Effect of Fabrication Parameters

Comparative study of kaolin reinforced hydroxyapatite (KHAp) and pure HAp using different production parameters has been done through traditional experimentation. However, the quantitative effect, optimization of kaolin reinforcement and fabrication parameters have not been investigated. Hence, this study examines the effect of kaolin reinforcement, compaction pressure and sintering temperature on the experimental mechanical properties of HAp. Taguchi design assisted by grey relational analysis was employed with L36 (2**2 3**1) orthogonal array. The Minitab 16 software was used to analyze the Taguchi design. The result showed a disparity in kaolin reinforcement as the optimum condition for individual mechanical properties, but the grey relational analysis showed better mechanical properties with kaolin reinforcement, 500 Pa compaction pressure and 1100 oC sintering temperature. The obtained result further revealed kaolin reinforcement as a strong and promising reinforcing material for high strength clinical application, having a contribution of 93.16% on compressive strength of HAp. Therefore, future studies can be conducted in the use of different wt% of kaolin on the multi-response mechanical characteristics of HAp.

Grey Relational Evaluation of the Supplier Selection Criteria in Indonesian Hospitality Industry

The study aims to identify and evaluate the key criteria for food supplier selection in the Indonesian hospitality industry. A survey was sent to experts in Indonesia and based on their opinions the supplier selection criteria were evaluated using the Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). The study found that price is the most important supplier selection criteria, followed by food quality, and return-ability of problematic food. The study also reports that the variation in the distinguishing coefficient of the GRA influences the ranking.

Indonesian Trade Deficit with China: Background and Grey Forecasting

Indonesia's trade balance with China has remained negative since 2010. The current study forecasts Indonesia's trade deficit with China for five years using the Even Grey Forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ). The sample was conducted by collecting the data of traded deficits for the past ten years. Data were collected from the official websites of Indonesia's Central Bureau of Statistics of (BPS), Ministry of Trade, among others. By building upon the literature, the study argues that trade deficits might have occurred from internal and external factors, such as the lack of infrastructure, the depreciation of the Rupiah (Indonesian currency) against the U.S. dollar, and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. Comparative analysis with Linear Regression (LR), Exponential Regression (ER), and Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) revealed the superiority of the grey forecasting model for trade deficit prediction. The study found that the trade deficit was minimum during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also showed an increasing trade deficit in the post-COVID period. The study concludes with some recommendations for Indonesia to minimize the trade deficit.

Critical Factors in Process Quality of Engineering Construction Projects during Building Design Phase

Quality in construction is an important topic in the design phase due to the quick change in technological advancement. The current study focuses on the identification, measurement, and analysis of the critical elements which impact the process quality of building construction projects during the design stage in Pakistan. Elements were graded using the conservative Relative Importance Index (RII) and Grey Absolute Decision Analysis (GADA). The findings indicate that during the design phase, the critical element impacting process quality is the quality of codes and standards and was facilitated using a questionnaire survey. Similarly, the teamwork of parties in design firms and constructability analysis of the design are key factors during the design phase in Pakistan. Measures for the improvement of process quality in Pakistan were suggested. The building construction projects need to be modified to cover the important aspects of constructability analysis, continuous working on training programs, and many other related activities. These are performed through a proper commitment to continuous quality improvement in building construction projects. The results are important for improving process quality during the construction projects' design phase.

Grey Forecasting of Inbound Tourism to Bali and Financial Loses from the COVID-19

Management and planning in the Indonesian tourism industry is an important matter. It involves responding to changes and uncertain conditions, especially in the tourism industry sector in Bali, Indonesia. Bali is a tourist spot that relies on foreign tourists. When a situation is not conducive, such as the COVID-19 outbreak that befell unexpectedly, proper management and planning are challenging without accurate forecasts. The current study used the Even Grey Forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ) to forecast the number of tourists to Bali, a famous tourist spot in Indonesia, and the approximate financial loss incurred from the pandemic in 2020 is quantified. These objectives are achieved through the data collected from the Bali statistical agency and analyzed through the grey model and some mathematical computations. The results indicated that the pandemic's impact on inbound tourism was severe, and the economy needs some time to recover. The study reported a loss of more than $7.3 billion to Bali due to the COVID-19 outbreak. It is possibly the first study of its kind, and its findings are important for the policy-makers, Tour & Travel service providers, and tourism-related businesses.

Evaluation of Low-Carbon Sustainable Technologies in Agriculture Sector through Grey Ordinal Priority Approach

The agriculture sector plays a vital role in the economy, society, and environment, the three dimensions of sustainability. The agriculture sector contributes 12% to 14% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere, negatively impacting climate change. Using low-carbon and sustainable agricultural technologies can help mitigate climate change and global food security issues. But selecting and prioritizing the best technologies among all alternatives has always been an issue for decision-makers because of various uncertainty related to the agricultural sector. Therefore, the current study intends to identify and prioritize the key low-carbon and sustainable agricultural technologies. The current study makes a pioneering attempt in employing the Grey Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA-G), a modern multi-attribute decision-making technique, for the evaluation of low-carbon and sustainable technologies for the agricultural sector.

Evaluating Site Selection Criteria for Marine Cultivation in North Lombok Regency of Indonesia through GADA model

Identifying the requirements for selecting water locations for marine cultivation requires identifying and objectively selecting cultivation locations. The study aims to identify site selection criteria to develop marine cultivation in Indonesia’s North Lombok Regency, followed by their prioritization based on perceived significance. The selection criteria are through extensive review of literature, and are evaluated based on primary data. Grey Absolute Decision Analysis (GADA) model was used to evaluate the criteria. Comparative analysis with the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and TOPSIS methods confirmed the soundness of the results obtained through GADA. It was found that oceanographic conditions are most essential criterion for site selection for marine cultivation development. The results are important for marine cultivation businesses looking for suitable site in North Lombok Regency.

Demand Forecasting of Toyota Avanza Cars in Indonesia: Grey Systems Approach

Toyota Avanza car is a popular four-wheeler among Indonesia middle-class customers. The current study aims to forecast the demand for Toyota Avanza cars in Indonesia in the next six years using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analysis of the results obtained from the grey model with those of Linear Regression, Exponential Regression, and Exponential Triple Smoothing techniques revealed the superiority of the grey model as it produced most accurate forecasts. The accuracy was measured through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results revealed, the car sales are likely to decline in the future. Although forecasts are never completely accurate, forecasting can provide a reference for developing strategy to meet future demand. The results are important for Toyota Avanza car manufacturers in Indonesia.