scholarly journals Analysis of Impact of Aral Sea Catastrophe on Anomaly Climate Variables and Hydrological Processes

2021 ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
T. Berdimbetov ◽  
S. Nietullaeva ◽  
A. Yegizbayeva
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ambient Temperatures ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Normal Trend ◽  
The Impact

Since 1960, water level began to decline considerably due to anthropogenic impact of the Aral Sea (AS), and it is continued to this day, which has led to dramatic changes in the climate around the AS, including ambient temperatures and sharp increases in evapotranspiration. Although, it isn't possible to see normal trend in this precipitation. Time series analysis of the FTI (First Time Interval 1901-1960) and STI (Second Time Interval, 1960-2015), highlighting climate change around the AS, based on Global Climate Data, suggests that there is a significant negative difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the drying of the AS. It is possible to see the logical compatibility of the air temperature and difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration observed around the AS, i.e. the temperature fluctuation trend is positive and contrary to the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration negative trend, which means that the annual hydrological budget was reduced according to the time scale. In this article, determining the AS as the central point, we analyze the changes in the thermal and hydrological processes observed on the AS, as well as the impact to the environment of anomalous climate change observed on and around the sea like the drying out of the AS.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on the Season of Botanical Tourism: A Case Study in Beijing

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Yaqiong Zang ◽  
Junhu Dai ◽  
Zexing Tao ◽  
Huanjiong Wang ◽  
Quansheng Ge
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Comfort Index ◽  
Suitability Index ◽  
Physical Comfort ◽  
The Impact

Climate change could affect botanical tourism by altering the plant phenology (e.g., flowering and leaf coloring date) and the physical comfort of tourists. To date, few studies have simultaneously considered the influence of plant phenology and physical comfort on the travel suitability of botanical tourism. Taking Beijing as an example, this study used phenological data of 73 species from 1963 to 2017 to construct a phenological ornamental index (POI) according to the flowering and leaf coloring date of ornamental plant. The climate comfort index (CCI) of tourism was calculated by using meteorological data of the corresponding periods. Finally, the travel suitability index (TSI) was constructed by integrating the two indices (POI and CCI). The POI showed that the best period for spring flower viewing was from April 4 to May 10, while the best period for autumn leaves viewing was from October 11 to November 6 on average. According to the variation of the CCI within the year, the most comfortable period for spring tourism was matched with the best period for spring flower viewing (April 4 to June 1), but the most comfortable period for autumn tourism (September 4 to October 19) was earlier than the best period for autumn leaves viewing. The TSI indicated that the best periods for spring and autumn botanical tourism were April 7 to May 10 and October 10 to November 7, respectively. Based on the climate data under different scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we simulated the climate and phenological suitability for botanical tourism in the next thirty years. The results showed that the best period for spring botanical tourism during 2040–2050 was earlier and the period for autumn botanical tourism was later than that in the past 55 years. Meanwhile, the duration would shorten by 2–7 days for both seasons. This study provided a reference for assessing the impact of global climate change on the best season of botanical tourism.

scholarly journals The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
R. McGrath ◽  
T. Semmler ◽  
C. Sweeney ◽  
P. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For the past climate (1961–2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models (GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021–2060), the model is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about 15–20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data. However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge generally increases – most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario.

scholarly journals Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Lu-yu Liu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Man Zhang ◽  
Cheng-bang An
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Altitudinal Belts ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals Dynamic Downscaling of the Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Circulation in the Galápagos Archipelago

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyun Liu ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Daniel Kamykowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
Galapagos Archipelago ◽  
The Impact

The regional impact of global climate change on the ocean circulation around the Galápagos Archipelago is studied using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for a four-level nested domain system. The modeling system is validated and calibrated using daily atmospheric forcing derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2007. The potential impact of future anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the Galápagos region is examined using the calibrated HYCOM with forcing derived from the IPCC-AR4 climate model. Results show that although the oceanic variability in the entire Galápagos region is significantly affected by global climate change, the degree of such effects is inhomogeneous across the region. The upwelling region to the west of the Isabella Island shows relatively slower warming trends compared to the eastern Galápagos region. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the variability in the western Galápagos upwelling region is affected mainly by equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and Panama currents, while the central/east Galápagos is predominantly affected by both Peru and EUC currents. The inhomogeneous responses in different regions of the Galápagos Archipelago to future AGW can be explained by the incoherent changes of the various current systems in the Galápagos region as a result of global climate change.

scholarly journals Analysis of livestock breeders’ perceptions and their adaptation measures to climate change in Morocco‘s arid rangelands

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Wadii Snaibi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Eastern Morocco ◽  
Climate Analysis

AbstractThe high plateaus of eastern Morocco are already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate change (CC), as the local populations’ livelihoods depend mainly on extensive sheep farming and therefore on natural resources. This research identifies breeders’ perceptions about CC, examines whether they correspond to the recorded climate data and analyses endogenous adaptation practices taking into account the agroecological characteristics of the studied sites and the difference between breeders’ categories based on the size of owned sheep herd. Data on perceptions and adaptation were analyzed using the Chi-square independence and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Climate data were investigated through Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Buishand tests.Herders’ perceptions are in line with the climate analysis in term of nature and direction of observed climate variations (downward trend in rainfall and upward in temperature). In addition, there is a significant difference in the adoption frequency of adaptive strategies between the studied agroecological sub-zones (χ2 = 14.525, p <.05) due to their contrasting biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, as well as among breeders’ categories (χ2 = 10.568, p < .05) which attributed mainly to the size of sheep flock. Policy options aimed to enhance local-level adaptation should formulate site-specific adaptation programs and prioritise the small-scale herders.

CLIMATE REFUGEES AS A NATURAL RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktoriia Sydorenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Natural Result ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Refugees

This article is devoted to an overview of such a category of migrants as climate refugees. The author pays attention to the general characteristics of the impact of global climate change on migrants. Particular attention is paid to the disclosure of the term “climate refugee”, the reasons for the emergence of this category of people, as well as the problems of counting climate refugees. The author also provides examples for solving these problems.

Advances in the data rescue and digitization of historical wind speed observations in Sweden: the WINDGUST project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Engström ◽  
Cesar Azorin-Molina ◽  
Lennart Wern ◽  
Sverker Hellström ◽  
Christophe Sturm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
The 1960S

&lt;p&gt;Here we present the progress of the first work package (WP1) of the project &amp;#8220;Assessing centennial wind speed variability from a historical weather data rescue project in Sweden&amp;#8221; (WINDGUST), funded by FORMAS &amp;#8211; A Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (ref. 2019-00509); previously introduced in EGU2019-17792-1 and EGU2020-3491. In a global climate change, one of the major uncertainties on the causes driving the climate variability of winds (i.e., the &amp;#8220;stilling&amp;#8221; phenomenon and the recent &amp;#8220;recovery&amp;#8221; since the 2010s) is mainly due to short availability (i.e., since the 1960s) and low quality of observed wind records as stated by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The WINDGUST is a joint initiative between the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the University of Gothenburg aimed at filling the key gap of short availability and low quality of wind datasets, and improve the limited knowledge on the causes driving wind speed variability in a changing climate across Sweden.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;During 2020, we worked in WP1 to rescue historical wind speed series available in the old weather archives at SMHI for the 1920s-1930s. In the process we followed the &amp;#8220;Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue&amp;#8221; of the World Meteorological Organization. Our protocol consisted on: (i) designing a template for digitization; (ii) digitizing papers by an imaging process based on scanning and photographs; and (iii) typing numbers of wind speed data into the template. We will report the advances and current status, challenges and experiences learned during the development of WP1. Until new year 2020/2021 eight out of thirteen selected stations spanning over the years 1925 to 1948 have been scanned and digitized by three staff members of SMHI during 1,660 manhours.&lt;/p&gt;

Impact of extreme hydrological perturbation on sediment distribution from source to sink, PETM, Spain.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marine Prieur ◽  
Alexander C. Whittaker ◽  
Fritz Schlunegger ◽  
Tor O. Sømme ◽  
Jean Braun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Depositional Environments ◽  
Lead Author ◽  
Current Increase ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Source To Sink ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Sedimentary dynamics and fluxes are influenced by both autogenic and allogenic forcings. A better understanding of the evolution of sedimentary systems through time and space requires us to decipher, and therefore to characterise, the impact of each of these on the Earth&amp;#8217;s landscape. Given the current increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon, studying the impact of rapid and global climate changes is of particular importance at the present time. Such events have been clearly defined in the geologic record. Among them, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has been extensively studied worldwide and represents a possible analogue of the rapid current climate warming.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The present project focuses on the Southern Pyrenees (Spain) where excellent exposures of the Paleocene-Eocene interval span a large range of depositional environments from continental to deep-marine. These conditions allow us to collect data along the whole depositional system in order to document changes in sediment fluxes and paleohydraulic conditions. Because hydrological conditions have an impact on sediment transport through hydrodynamics, paleoflow reconstructions can shed light on changes in sediment dynamics. This information is reconstructed from the statistical distributions of channel morphologies, characteristic system dimensions including bankfull channel depth and width, and grain-sizes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With this approach, our aim is to provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments of the magnitude and extent of the perturbation of sedimentary fluxes along an entire source-to-sink system during an episode of extreme climate change. This will lead to a better understanding of the impact of abrupt climate change on earth surface systems in mid-latitudinal areas, with possible implications for current climate adaptation policy.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This research is carried out in the scope of the lead author&amp;#8217;s PhD project and is part of the S2S-FUTURE European Marie Sk&amp;#322;odowska-Curie ITN (Grant Agreement No 860383).&lt;/p&gt;

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