scholarly journals Tropical cyclones - Synoptic methods of forecasting

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-256
Author(s):  
A.V.R. KRISHNA RAO
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Heavy Rains

The tropical cyclone is one of the most destructive natural disasters which is capable of causing loss of life and damage to the property. Strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges associated with the cyclones, are the phenomena which are responsible for causing the damage. The issue of warnings about the impending cyclones in time help to reduce the loss of lives that the cyclone causes. To forecast its formation, structure and movement, the processes involved in its evolution and subsequent movement, are to be understood well. In this article an attempt has been made to review the literature about the cyclone characteristics and its structure. Synoptic methods of forecasting its formation and movement are also reviewed. Existing literature on their association with QBO and ENSO is also summarized. Some forecasting rules that may be of help to an operational forecaster are mentioned.  

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone risk assessment with special reference to Bangladesh

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 305-322
Author(s):  
ANWAR ALI ◽  
JAHIR UDDIN CHOWDHURY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Special Reference ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Vulnerability Analysis ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Greenhouse Effects ◽  
Future Loss

Tropical cyclones are regarded as the most deadly among all natural disasters. They bring catastrophic ravages to life and property as well as to environment. Among all the areas in the world affected by tropical cyclones, the countries along the rim of the Bay of Bengal suffer most and Bangladesh is the worst sufferer. In order to minimise the future loss of life and property, proper cyclone disaster management action is an absolute necessity. This, in turn, requires a better assessment of risks associated with a cyclone. The present paper discusses the major components of risk assessment, viz., (i) inventory of cyclones with associated causes of hazards, (ii) analysis of damages and inventory of elements at risk and (iii) vulnerability analysis with special reference to Bangladesh. Inventory of cyclones deals with the cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal region over the period 1881-1990. Discussions on causes of hazards cover strong winds. storm surges, rainfall. socio-economic factors, greenhouse effects, etc. An idea about the degree of cyclone damages and the elements at risks in Bangladesh is given. Some discussions on vulnerability analysis and risk reduction/mitigation with a few case studies in Bangladesh are made. Finally few recommendations are put forward.  

Compound impact of rainfall, tidal level and storm surge on flood risk from tropical cyclones in the coastal area of shanghai

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanqing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Tidal Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

<p>Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme tropical cyclones has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms surge. In coastal areas, floods caused by rainstorms and storm surges have been one of the most costly and devastating natural hazards in coastal regions. Extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. Usually, extreme events such as tidal level, storm surges, precipitation occur jointly, leading to compound flood events with significantly higher hazards compared to the sum of the single extreme events. The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of multiple drivers to compound flooding in shanghai. The Wind Enhance Scheme (WES) model characterized by Holland model is devised to generate wind "spiderweb" both for historical (1949-2018) and future (2031-2060, 2069-2098) tropical cyclones. The tidal level and storm surge model based on Delft3D-FLOW is employed with an unstructured grid to simulate the change of water level. For precipitation, maximum value between tropical cyclone events is selected. Following this, multivariate Copula model would be employed to compare the change of joint probability between tidal level, storm surge and heavy precipitation under climate change, taking into account sea-level rise and land subsidence. Finally, the impact of tropical cyclone on the joint risk of tidal, storm surge and heavy precipitation is investigated. </p>

scholarly journals Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (41) ◽  
pp. 12610-12615 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andra J. Reed ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Kerry A. Emanuel ◽  
Ning Lin ◽  
Benjamin P. Horton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
York City ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Badai Tropis Cempaka Terhadap Kejadian Tanah Longsor di Kabupaten Bantul Yogyakarta

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Aminatun ◽  
Dinia Anggraheni
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Landslide Mitigation ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
Landslide Disaster ◽  
Research Show

Siklon tropis Cempaka yang terjadi pada 28 dan 29 November 2017 menyebabkan bencana di semua kabupaten dan kota di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Kabupaten Bantul adalah kabupaten yang paling selatan dan berdekatan dengan Samudra Indonesia ini menjadi daerah yang paling banyak terkena dampak bencana ini. Siklon tropis tersebut menimbulkan dampak yang sangat besar pada daerah-daerah yang dilaluinya, seperti angin kencang, hujan lebat, tanah longsor, banjir, gelombang tinggi, dan gelombang badai. Kejadian tanah longsor sebagian besar disebabkan oleh curah hujan yang meninggi ditambah dengan stabilitas tanah yang rendah. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui pengaruh curah hujan selama terjadi siklon Cempaka terhadap kejadian bencana tanah longsor di Kabupaten Bantul agar dapat dipergunakan untuk melakukan mitigasi bencana badai sklon tropis apabila terjadi lagi di waktu yang akan datang. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode deskriptif dengan pendekatan kualitatif yang digunakan untuk memberikan gambaran jelas tentang pengaruh curah hujan selama terjadi Siklon Tropis Cempaka terhadap kejadian tanah longsor. Sumber data yang digunakan adalah sumber data primer dan sekunder melalui wawancara dan dokumentasi. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kejadian bencana tanah longsor selama Siklon Tropis Cempaka mengalami peningkatan. Selain itu, penelitian ini menghasilkan basis data yang akan dipergunakan untuk melakukan rencana mitigasi bencana.Kata kunci: siklon tropis, curah hujan, tanah longsor, mitigasi Tropical Cempaka syclones that occurred on 28 and 29 November 2017 caused disasters in all districts and cities in the Special Region of Yogyakarta. The district of Bantul is the southernmost district and adjacent to Indonesia's oceans is the area most affected by this disaster. The tropical cyclon has a huge impact on the areas they go through, such as strong winds, heavy rain, landslides, floods, high waves, and storm surges. The occurrence of landslides is mostly caused by increased rainfall and also low soil stability. The purpose of this research is to know the effect of rainfall during Cempaka cyclone to the occurrence of landslide disaster in Bantul district so that it can be used to mitigate the disaster of tropical storm when it happens again in the future. The method used in this research is descriptive method with qualitative approach used to give a clear data about the influence of rainfall during Cempaka Tropical Cyclone to the occurrence of landslide. Sources of data used are primary and secondary data sources through interviews and documentation. The results of the research show that the number of occurrences of landslide disaster during Cempaka Tropical Cyclone has increased. In addition, this research produces a database that will be used to conduct disaster mitigation plans.Keywords: tropical cyclone, rainfall, landslide, mitigation 

scholarly journals Machine Learning in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Modeling: A Review

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 676
Author(s):  
Rui Chen ◽  
Weimin Zhang ◽  
Xiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Mechanisms ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Strong Winds ◽  
The Many ◽  
Axisymmetric Structures

Tropical cyclones have always been a concern of meteorologists, and there are many studies regarding the axisymmetric structures, dynamic mechanisms, and forecasting techniques from the past 100 years. This research demonstrates the ongoing progress as well as the many remaining problems. Machine learning, as a means of artificial intelligence, has been certified by many researchers as being able to provide a new way to solve the bottlenecks of tropical cyclone forecasts, whether using a pure data-driven model or improving numerical models by incorporating machine learning. Through summarizing and analyzing the challenges of tropical cyclone forecasts in recent years and successful cases of machine learning methods in these aspects, this review introduces progress based on machine learning in genesis forecasts, track forecasts, intensity forecasts, extreme weather forecasts associated with tropical cyclones (such as strong winds and rainstorms, and their disastrous impacts), and storm surge forecasts, as well as in improving numerical forecast models. All of these can be regarded as both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that at present, the potential of machine learning has not been completely exploited, and a large amount of multi-source data have also not been fully utilized to improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting. The challenge is that the predictable period and stability of tropical cyclone prediction can be difficult to guarantee, because tropical cyclones are different from normal weather phenomena and oceanographic processes and they have complex dynamic mechanisms and are easily influenced by many factors.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclones surges events (1975-2007)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lakshmi Seewsagur
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
Data Platform

This layer provides a compilation of estimated storm surges triggered by tropical cyclones of Saffir-Simpson category (Don't forget to zoom on the coasts!). The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale classifies hurricanes into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds. To be classified as a hurricane, a tropical cyclone must have maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (Category 1), to winds exceeding 156 mph (Category 5). For more information, visit the Global Risk Data Platform: http://preview.grid.unep.ch Disaster Exposure Flood Risk

scholarly journals KARAKTERISTIK DAN DAMPAK SIKLON TROPIS YANG TUMBUH DI SEKITAR WILAYAH INDONESIA

OSEANA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Dewi Surinati ◽  
Dwi Ayu Kusuma
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
It Impacts ◽  
Strong Winds

CHARACTERISTICS AND IMPACTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES GROWING AROUND INDONESIAN TERRITORY. Tropical cyclone is a cyclonic originates from tropical oceans and driven principally by heat transfer from the ocean. Tropical cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon characterized by the emergence of low air pressure that triggers the occurrence of strong winds due to the process of heat transfer from the equator to the latitude. This phenomenon can not be prevented, so that it has great potential to impact on the damage in the area it through. Tropical cyclones can be characterized through their life cycle, scale of power and how it impacts in the area it through. The Cempaka and Dahlia tropical cyclone occuring in 2017 greatly influenced territory of Indonesia. The effect of the cyclone causes extreme weather in Indonesia, especially in areas close to where cyclones are formed.

scholarly journals Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea : The problem and its prediction

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-304
Author(s):  
S.K. DUBE ◽  
A. D. RAO ◽  
P. C. SINHA ◽  
T. S. MURTY ◽  
N. BAHULAYAN
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Coastal Structures ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Factors Affecting

India and its neighbourhood is threatened by the possibility of storm surge floods whenever a tropical cyclone approaches. Storm surge disasters cause heavy loss of life and property, damage to the coastal structures and agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. Thus, the real time monitoring and warning of storm surge is of great concern for this region. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of major aspects of the storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, the factors affecting the generation of storm surges and the present state-of-the-art in the numerical storm surge prediction.    

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