scholarly journals Climate change impact : Regional scenario

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 201-212
Author(s):  
U. S. DE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Crop Simulation Models ◽  
The Face ◽  
Major Shift ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and global warming are going to be the major issues for the 21st  century. Their impacts on agriculture, water availability and other natural resources are of serious concern. The paper briefly summarizes the existing information on global warming, past climatic anomalies and occurrence of extreme events vis-a-vis their impact on south Asia in general and Indian in particular. Use of GCM models in conjunction with crop simulation models for impact assessment in agriculture are briefly touched upon. The impact on hydrosphere in terms of water availability and on the forests in India are also discussed. A major shift in our policy makers paradigm is needed to make development sustainable in the face of climate change, global warming and sea level rise.

scholarly journals The impact of elite frames and motivated reasoning on beliefs in a global warming conspiracy: The promise and limits of trust

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316801771760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle L Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Anthropogenic Global Warming ◽  
The Face ◽  
Conspiracy Beliefs ◽  
Original Question ◽  
Behavioral Impact ◽  
The Impact

Given the potential attitudinal and behavioral impact of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) conspiracy beliefs, it is important to understand their causes and moderators. Here, two explanations for the variation in these beliefs are engaged: the first is the choice among elites to frame AGW using the phrase ‘global warming’ (GW) as opposed to ‘climate change’ (CC); the second is partisan motivated reasoning. A theory is then developed about the role of trust in moderating the impact of the two frames on AGW conspiracy beliefs. In the case of CC, which is perceived as less severe than GW (and is therefore less identity threatening among Republicans), it is hypothesized that trust will moderate hoax beliefs among Republicans. In the case of GW, where the implications of existence beliefs have policy consequences that are more unpleasant, motivated reasoning will ‘win out’, and trust will not moderate conspiracy endorsement among Republicans. The results from an original question framing experiment are consistent with the author’s hypotheses. Whilst trust is a welcome commodity to those looking to persuade citizens to support AGW-ameliorating policies, it is not a cure-all, especially in the face of elite partisan cues that edify pre-existing attitudes/identities and arouse a strong desire to engage in motivated reasoning.

scholarly journals Climate change impact assessment as function of model inaccuracy

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 2875-2899
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. van Loon ◽  
W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. More extreme climate change scenarios and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

scholarly journals Threats of Global Climate Change: A Review of the Driver to Multiples Environmental Degradation, Human Right Injustice and Unsustainable Development

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Ayuk Macbert Nkongho ◽  
Cherabe Nchomba George
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Right ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Combat Climate Change ◽  
Management And Conservation

As we embrace the new millennium of the 21st century, the threats to the environment are unprecedented. However, none of these threats is as immense as global warming. Environmental management and conservation actions are floundering in the face of climate change as the latter poses a complex, bewildering array of impacts to the environment particularly on the state, individuals, communities, and cultures, as well as on natural resources (land, water, and air). Because of this, there is the need for the protection and promotion of climate change justice. The problem facing policy-makers and environmental stakeholders is how to plan within the context of global warming and to implement strategies for increasing the resistance and resilience of the environment to climate change impacts. This is because climate change is an issue of reality and is seemingly difficult to understand and to be plan for. It is, therefore, vital that a justice-centered approach is adopted to combat climate change. This article, therefore, seeks to analyze the causes and impacts of climate change, designs strategies and recommendations which is hope to address the adverse effects of climate change on human rights and the environment.

Comparison of five wheat simulation models In southern Alberta

1995 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Touré ◽  
D. J. Major ◽  
C. W. Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Epic Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Long Term Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global warming which will affect crop production. Crop modelling is a useful tool for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The objective of this study was to select an appropriate model for climate change studies. Five simulation models, EPIC, CERES, Century, Sinclair and Stewart, were assessed using data from a long-term experiment begun in 1911 on a clay loam (Dark Brown Chernozem) soil at Lethbridge, AB. Yields predicted by the five models were compared with actual spring wheat yields in continuous wheat, fallow-wheat and fallow-wheat-wheat rotations. The EPIC model gave the best simulation results over all rotations and the most accurate predictions of mean yields during droughts. It was concluded that the EPIC model had the greatest potential for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield. The Stewart model was the most accurate for unfertilized continuous wheat and fallow-wheat. The Sinclair model was most accurate for fertilized fallow-wheat and CERES was the most accurate model for fertilized continuous wheat. The Century model simulated average yield accurately but did not account for year-to-year variability. Key words: Global warming, crop simulation, spring wheat yields

scholarly journals Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Saedi ◽  
Azadeh Ahmadi ◽  
Karim C. Abbaspour
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The climate change impact on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on supplying water and water availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the Basin. The model then was calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 669-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Droogers ◽  
A. Van Loon ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Climate Change Impact Assessment ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Reference Situation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

London Housing and Climate Change: Impact on Comfort and Health - Preliminary Results of a Summer Overheating Study

2010 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mavrogianni ◽  
M. Davies ◽  
P. Wilkinson ◽  
A. Pathan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Night Time ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Preliminary Results ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Building Characteristics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Potential Use

Climate change presents potential increased threats to the comfort and health of urban populations as a result of higher summer temperatures. This paper reviews recent research on the climate change adaptation potential of urban environments and focuses on a major conurbation, London. Recent work relating to the impact of exposure to heat on population health is also noted. Data obtained from a pilot monitoring study carried out in a subset of 36 dwellings (from a total of 110 dwellings in the overall study) across London during the summer of 2009 is then discussed. Preliminary results illustrate the need to quantify the net impacts of individual building characteristics and the location of each dwelling within the London heat island. During a hot period, more than 40% of the monitored bedrooms failed the recommended overheating criteria during the night time. There was some indication of purpose built flats being more prone to overheating. The potential use of such data as the basis of a heat-related health risk epidemiological model for London is discussed. Such a tool would help health policy makers to target the most vulnerable building types and areas.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Recharge in Groundwater Regions in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1153
Author(s):  
Shih-Jung Wang ◽  
Cheng-Haw Lee ◽  
Chen-Feng Yeh ◽  
Yong Fern Choo ◽  
Hung-Wei Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Systems ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assessment Results

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

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