scholarly journals The Impact of Oil Prices on Economic Activity: The Case of Azerbaijan

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Shahin V. B. ◽  
Jamila G. M. ◽  
Fargana G. M. ◽  
Nazim Hajiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Market ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The strategic purpose of the economic policy of Azerbaijan is to ensure sustainable growth. The external factors including oil prices in the world market and investments have a significant influence on economic activity in Azerbaijan. The relationship between oil prices and gross domestic product has been scrutinized and the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators to oil prices has been investigated. The dependence of investment activity, including foreign investments on oil prices has been determined. In the research, econometric models have been constructed in the purpose of studying the impact of oil prices on key macroeconomic indicators from the qualitative and quantitative point of view. At the same time, a comparative analysis of oil reserves of Azerbaijan with other oil countries has been conducted. According to the results, the government should determine new and sustainable growth pillars based on risks emerged from oil price, improve economic policy and accelerate the transition to innovative high-tech models of economic development.

Investment activity in the Ural Federal District in the context of import substitution

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 2678-2701
Author(s):  
N.V. Krivenko ◽  
A.V. Trynov ◽  
D.S. Epaneshnikova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Federal District ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Commodity Group ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Substitution Policy ◽  
Investment In Fixed Assets ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The article considers the investment activity in the regions of the Ural Federal District. Objectives. We analyze the impact of import substitution policy on investment activity by type of economic activity, using the regions of the Ural Federal District case. Methods. We employed methods of logic, statistical, and structural analysis. Results. We offer our own approach to the study of the impact of import substitution policy on the investment activity of regions. It rests on comparing the dynamics of Russian imports by major commodity group and the dynamics of investment in fixed assets by type of economic activity. The study revealed two trends. First, the development of substitute goods production. Second, the commodity sector development. It was found that in 2013–2019, investments in the sectors of mining and processing of mineral resources demonstrated faster growth. At the same time, investments in the production of import substituting goods did not show a stable positive dynamics. Thus, the enterprises of the Ural Federal District are more focused on the production of traditional export goods; the orientation of the import substitution policy to the domestic market and high-tech exports currently does not give the expected results and is local in nature. Conclusions. The results of the study can be used by Federal and regional authorities to assess the impact of import substitution policies on the investment activity of enterprises.

scholarly journals Relationship between Oil Price and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Mikhailov ◽  
D. B. Burakov ◽  
V. Yu. Didenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate

One of the most important external factors affecting the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian rouble has been the global oil price. Russia, whose economy is mainly associated with oil production, is one of the world’s largest oil suppliers. Therefore, the slightest fluctuations in oil prices can have a significant effect on its economy. The aim of the article is to study the relationship between macroeconomic parameters and oil prices. The objectives of the study are to identify factors having a long-term positive relationship with oil prices based on a mathematical approach, as well as to propose improvements for Russian macroeconomic indicators. The authors use modern mathematical methods of vector autoregression (VAR-model), the Granger method and the Dickey-Fuller test to study the long-term and shortterm relationships between the relevant time series for the period from 2014 to 2016. On this basis, it was calculated that a 1% increase in GDP leads to a strengthening of the national currency by 1.47%. This fact can be explained by the overall growth of the national economy. The Granger test results for the model show that global oil price (and Russian GDP) has the greatest impact on the exchange rate in the short term. The following actions are proposed for improving macroeconomic indicators: stabilisation of foreign economic policy; diversification of exports (although oil revenues can serve as a tool for improving the quality of Russian economic development and public life in general); development of the Russian ‘Urals’ benchmark and increasing its trading volumes on the world market; transition to rubles for settlements of Russian oil and gas; use of a ruble indicator (ruble barrel) of the ‘Urals’ oil price to support the development of Russia’s financial and economic policy.

scholarly journals Analysis of financial development and industrial structure transformation

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 02080
Author(s):  
Shuwei Harold Sun ◽  
Allen Wang ◽  
Huan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Industrial Structure ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Moment Estimation ◽  
Investment Structure ◽  
The Government ◽  
Role Of The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses the relevant data from 2008 to 2017 to construct a multiple linear regression equation, and uses the generalized moment estimation model to explore the impact of financial development on industrial structure adjustment from the perspective of financial scale and efficiency. The results show that financial efficiency can promote the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure, but the impact of financial scale on industrial structure is two-sided. Increasing financial scale can increase the amount of industrial financing and accelerate the process of industrial structure upgrading. However, blindly increasing the supply of loans will lead to the birth of bad investment, thus failing to promote the rationalization of industrial structure. Based on this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as promoting the diversified development of the financial industry, improving the imbalance of financial development in various provinces, promoting the reasonable investment structure and the development of high-tech industry, and giving full play to the role of the government.

scholarly journals RUSSIAN ECONOMY: WHAT IS NOT ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIES AND ENTERPRISES

2021 ◽  
pp. 125-133
Author(s):  
A. V. Yaschenko
Keyword(s):  
Theory Of The Firm ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
High Tech ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Main Thing

The article attempts to assess the results of the development of the Russian economy from the moment of privatization to the present. The urgency of the problem lies in the fact that, despite significant resources, including human capital, the economy is stagnating, there are no structural reforms, and high-tech companies do not appear. The main thing is not creating conditions for business development on the principles of self-organization: entrepreneurship, initiative, personal competence and investment. Reforming the socio-economic system of the USSR has no historical analogue, and is perceived as a unique practice of testing some theoretical positions and hypotheses that guided researchers and entrepreneurs in the framework of a market economy, for example, the theory of market equilibrium, theory of the firm, theory of preferences, and others. Russia has demonstrated a kind of phenomenon, both from the point of view of theory and practice of market transformations, when it is not entrepreneurship, not the investment activity of business and the population, but the narrowly selfish interests of persons affiliated with the government, began to determine market processes, such an economy was called the «economy of individuals», And in the case of a direct focus on the state budget,» the economy of the distribution». The transformations could be based on the market experience of a large number of countries, both developed and developing (China), this has not been done. Time was lost on the creation of new jobs; in the industrial orientation of the state, there were no priorities for the development of important industries for national competitiveness. As a result, the economic growth was lost.

Integration of Manufacturing, Science and Education as a Basis for the Re-Industrialization of Russia

2015 ◽  
pp. 94-104
Author(s):  
S. Bodrunov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Domestic Industry ◽  
Technological Basis ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Science And Education ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Manufacturing Science

The article investigates the problems that Russian industry has encountered during the period of economic reforms. The author explores the reasons for the competitiveness decrease and contradictions that hinder the modernization of the domestic industry. Based on the analysis the principal concept is posed of the need in the implementation of the strategy of re-industrialization in Russia on a new technological basis. The basic directions of re-industrialization, the mechanisms of its implementation, as well as the impact on import substitution are considered. Substantial attention is paid to the risks inherent in a re-industrialization of Russia and the ways to overcome them. In recent years, geo-political and geo-economic challenges to the Russian economy and society greatly exacerbated the contradictions that emerged in the previous decades of economic evolution. During a long period of time the country tried to implement an economic policy intended, in principle, at achieving the strategic goal of creating a modern socially-oriented market economy on the base of modernization. However, the practical tools for implementation of this course – first of all, the ideology of “market fundamentalism” combined with the remaining powerful black market and “hand steering” by the government – caused stagnation and further de-industrialization of the country with inevitably negative implications for the manufacturing, science, education, human capital. Most recently, the Russian economy faced additional problems, namely, the Western sanctions, world economic slump and decline in world oil prices. That is why significant changes in the objectives and tools of economic policy are so urgent.

scholarly journals Destructive Creation at Work: How Financial Distress Spurs Entrepreneurship

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 4061-4101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tania Babina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Web Site ◽  
High Tech ◽  
High Wage ◽  
New Firms ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
Service Sectors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Published Paper

Abstract Using U.S. Census firm-worker data, I document that firms’ financial distress has an economically important effect on employee departures to entrepreneurship. The impact is amplified in the high-tech and service sectors, where employees are key assets. In states with enforceable noncompete contracts, the effect is mitigated. Compared to typical entrepreneurs, distress-driven entrepreneurs are high-wage workers who found better firms, as measured by jobs, pay, and survival. Startup jobs compensate for 33% of job losses at the constrained incumbents. Overall, the financial inability of incumbent firms to pursue productive opportunities increases the reallocation of economic activity into new firms. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Epidemic may shake Chad's government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mission Operation

Subject COVID-19 impact on Chad. Significance Chad has a relatively low number of confirmed COVID-19 cases but appears quite vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic, especially the economic impact. The country’s highly rural and youthful demography may help to slow the spread and keep the death rate low. Yet low oil prices, a return to recession and a new wave of sector-specific protests could pose major challenges for the government. Impacts Chad's epidemic appears unlikely to affect France’s Sahel counterterrorism mission Operation Barkhane, headquartered in Chad. A bottom-up revolution appears unlikely, and no major rebel challengers appear poised to take advantage of COVID-19 and associated crises. President Idriss Deby's government appears unlikely to fall in the short term -- French backing will continue to ensure his survival.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF TRANSFERING ISRAEL CAPITAL CITY TO JERUSALEM TOWARD INDONESIA MACRO ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 260-282
Author(s):  
Liliek Nur Sulistiyowati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

United States President Donald Trump has just issued a controversial policy by giving Jerusalem recognition as the capital of Israel. This controversial policy triggered a strong reaction from a number of countries, especially Islamic countries including Indonesia. Indonesia through President Jokowidodo strongly condemned the policy of moving the Israeli capital to Jerusalem because it would disrupt political and security stability in the Middle East region. In the midst of the political impact caused by President Donald Trump's policies also affected the global economy. The world stock exchanges reacted immediately with the existence of these policies, one of which was the fall of the stock market index in Japan and South Korea due to investor concerns. The impact of the policies implemented by President Donald Trump also affected the Indonesian economy. This policy will affect the financial markets and capital markets in Indonesia. Trump's policy triggered an increase in the US $ exchange rate against the currencies of other countries including the Indonesian currency. Some of the negative effects on the Indonesian economy were the increase in world crude oil prices. Indonesia is currently no longer an oil exporting country, so that with the increase in world crude oil prices it will provide a fiscal burden in the State Budget (APBN). Fuel subsidies in the state budget will increase along with the increase in world crude oil prices that occur. In addition to the impact on the rupiah exchange rate against the US $, Donald Trump's policy also affects the inflation rate and the SBI interest rate. Through 2018, Bank Indonesia has raised the SBI interest rate by 150 basis points (bps) or 1.5%. The BI Governor explained that one reason for changing the benchmark interest rate was US monetary policy. The determination of high SBI interest rates also had an effect on reducing inflationary pressures. This study aims to look at the influence of President Donald Trump's policies regarding the transfer of the Israeli capital to Jerusalem against Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators. Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators are seen from 3 variables, such as the inflation rate, SBI interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate against US $ Key words :  Donald Trump, inflation, SBI interest rates, exchange rates / exchange rates  

scholarly journals Changes in Crude Oil Prices and the Flow of Government Revenue

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Chukwunweike Stella ◽  
Achu Tonia Chinedu ◽  
Awa Kalu Idika
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This work is set out as an investigation into the impact of change in oil prices on government revenue broken into oil and nonoil component. Drawing data from the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin and covering the period 1981 to 2018. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used because of its advantages over other regression techniques. It was found that changes in oil price affected oil revenue within the studied period leaving no significant impact on nonoil revenue. The result obviously reflects the Nigerian economy and its mono-product characteristic. It is therefore recommended that a conscious policy effort should be made to diversify the economy in a manner that makes revenue to the government multifarious functions.

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