Justification and belief as the basis for proof in criminal trial

2019 ◽  
Vol specjalny (XIX) ◽  
pp. 123-137
Author(s):  
Jerzy Konieczny
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Belief Function ◽  
Criminal Trial ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Inductive Character ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

The aim of the article is to present the role of justification and belief in the course of proving guilt in a criminal trial. The starting point is the indication of the inductive character of evidentiary reasoning and the acceptance of its conclusions on the basis of the decision making by trial authority. These decisions appear after the process in which this authority reaches the level of aspirations to make them; the second basis may be their expected usefulness. The requirements for proof are contrasted with the concept of knowledge. If one assumes that the attribution of knowledge to a particular subject consists in the possession of a justified, accurate belief by that subject, then one can assume that the possession of such knowledge is tantamount to proving in a trial sense. The tools supporting the pursuit of correctness of command are the Shafer-Dempster belief function and the Bayesian approach in making decisions about factual findings.

Intervals of Intervention : Micro-Decisions and the Temporal Autonomy of Self-Driving Cars

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Sprenger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Media Archaeology ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
New Meanings ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
Self Driving Cars

Self-driving vehicles do not simply translate algorithmic definitions of their interaction with the environment into material actions. In the implementation of microdecisions, temporality itself becomes an element of the success of operations. Taking the fascination for a non-human and distributed capability of decision-making as a starting point, the paper explores how the temporality of microdecisions is integrated into technical systems that interact with their surroundings. On the basis of a media archaeology of these temporalities, it develops a heuristic of autonomous technologies that explores the role of micro-decisions. With self-driving cars, terms such as agency (based on algorithms), temporality (in different intervals of intervention), decision (in reference to alternative scenarios), and autonomy achieve new meanings worthy of a re-interpretation.

The Problem of the Prior in Criminal Trials

2021 ◽  
pp. 287-300
Author(s):  
Christian Dahlman ◽  
Eivind Kolflaath
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Prior Probability ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Criminal Trial ◽  
Presumption Of Innocence ◽  
Criminal Trials ◽  
Standard Of Proof ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

This chapter addresses a classical challenge to the Bayesian approach. It examines different ways of setting the prior probability of the prosecutor’s hypothesis in a criminal trial, in particular, the classical Bayesian solution of setting the prior at 1/N, where N is the number of possible perpetrators in the geographical area where the crime was committed. The authors argue that this solution is at odds with the presumption of innocence, and that other proposals are also problematic, either theoretically or in practice. According to the authors, a presumed prior determined ex lege is less problematic than other solutions, and the problem of the prior can be avoided by a reconceptualization of the standard of proof.

DEMPSTER BELIEF FUNCTIONS ARE BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF COMPLETE IGNORANCE

2000 ◽  
Vol 08 (03) ◽  
pp. 271-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER P. WAKKER
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Belief Function ◽  
Belief Functions ◽  
Strict Adherence ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Subjective Information ◽  
State Of Nature ◽  
Complete Ignorance ◽  
True State ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

This paper shows that a "principle of complete ignorance" plays a central role in decisions based on Dempster belief functions. Such belief functions occur when, in a first stage, a random message is received and then, in a second stage, a true state of nature obtains. The uncertainty about the random message in the first stage is assumed to be probabilized, in agreement with the Bayesian principles. For the uncertainty in the second stage no probabilities are given. The Bayesian and belief function approaches part ways in the processing of the uncertainty in the second stage. The Bayesian approach requires that this uncertainty also be probabilized, which may require a resort to subjective information. Belief functions follow the principle of complete ignorance in the second stage, which permits strict adherence to objective inputs.

A Predictive Bayesian Approach to Multistate Reliability Analysis

2003 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 221-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Aven ◽  
A. Hjorteland
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Bayesian Paradigm ◽  
Bayesian Procedures ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

In this paper we discuss how to implement a Bayesian thinking for multistate reliability analysis. The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analysing and expressing reliability, but in our view the standard Bayesian procedures gives too much emphasis on probability models and inference on fictional parameters. We believe that there is a need for a rethinking on how to implement the Bayesian approach, and in this paper we present and discuss such a rethinking for multistate reliability analysis. The starting point of the analysis should be observable quantities, expressing states of the world, not fictional parameters.

Likelihood Ratio in Evidential Evaluation of Polygraph Examination

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-112
Author(s):  
Jerzy Konieczny ◽  
Paulina Wolańska-Nowak
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Forensic Identification ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Evaluation Practice ◽  
Examination Result ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Polygraph Examination ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

The starting point of the paper is the observation that the likelihood ratio (LR) is not used in the evaluation practice of — so important in the field of internal security — polygraph examinations. Meanwhile, LR is the only scientifically justifiable parameter that shows the evidential weight of particular evidence. The authors present theoretical attempts to use LR for evidential assessment of the polygraph examinations value and subject them to criticism. The main objective of the paper is to present the LR calculation procedure in the context of interpretation of a polygraph examination result treated as evaluative expertise. The following assumptions are made: the analysis includes only comparison question techniques; examination results enable to include a relevant subject only in one of the three categories: deception indicated, no deception indicated, inconclusive; there are various ways to assign LR; in the course of LR assignment, the arbitrary adoption of the values of some variables is admissible. Several examples of LR calculations are presented in different tactical configurations of polygraph examinations. The significance of including the inconclusive results in the examination technique characteristics is analysed. The possibility of applying the cumulative LR is indicated, however, leaving this question open. Consequences of the LR application in the interpretation of polygraph examinations are also presented as an argument in the criminal analysis. Conclusions show that treating polygraph examinations as evaluative expertise opens a new perspective on this method of forensic identification and deserves to be continued; however, the issue of the evidential use of polygraph examination results, in the light of the evaluation made with the use of the Bayesian approach, requires a number of further discussions among lawyers and scientists.

The Role of Organizational Culture to the Management of Telecommunication Companies

2011 ◽  
pp. 295-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonios D. Kargas ◽  
Dimitris Varoutas
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Culture ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Organizational Climate ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Employee Behavior ◽  
Leadership Quality ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Telecommunication Companies

This chapter explains what organizational culture is and analyzes its importance for the management of any company. Organizational culture must not be ignored during the decision-making process and managers must understand the existing culture of their organization in order to achieve their targets and to meet their goals. This chapter presents the theoretical link between organizational culture and a variety of variables, which affect organizational performance and efficiency, directly and indirectly. Such variables are knowledge management, organizational climate, leadership, quality, innovation and entrepreneurship, human resource management, and employee behavior. This chapter creates the starting point to study the link between culture and organizational strategy, enterprising practices and change management.

scholarly journals Demonstrating the Impact of Prior Knowledge in Risky Choice

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Hardy ◽  
Tom Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prior Knowledge ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Risky Choice ◽  
Human Cognition ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
Congressional Districts ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Bayesian models that optimally integrate prior probabilities with observations have successfully explained many aspects of human cognition. Research on decision-making under risk, however, is usually done through laboratory tasks that attempt to remove the effect of prior knowledge on choice. We ran a large online experiment in which risky options paid out according to the distribution of Democratic and Republican voters in US congressional districts to test the effects of manipulating prior probabilities on participants’ choices. We find evidence that people’s risk preferences are appropriately influenced by prior probabilities, and discuss how the study of risky choice can be integrated into the Bayesian approach to studying cognition.

The Governance of Transportation and Urban Design in Bahrain According to the Fourth Generation Industrial Revolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 18-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad F. AlNuaimi ◽  
Wasan M. Mohammed ◽  
Nabil T. Ismael
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Fourth Generation ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Starting Point

One of the most important pillars of transportation design is the surrounded urban design. The transport sector in Bahrain needs more efficiency in its performance. It is considered the biggest source of environmental pollution and the deterioration of the local and regional climate of Bahrain, because of traditional transport and traffic plans. The need for adopting the role of governance and decision-making in the Bahraini transport sector and buildings rules sector to develop it according to the new industrial revolution. The research concluded that governance and decision-making should be activated in all sectors; the transport and urban sectors are very important parts of the overall system. The research recommended that the proposed framework be adopted (as the starting point for a new transport system which will be widely affected on the urban design) to be applied in all Bahraini cities.

scholarly journals Using Bayesian Updating to Improve Decisions under Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-40
Author(s):  
Brian T. McCann
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
New Information ◽  
Accurate Probability ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

Decision making requires managers to constantly estimate the probability of uncertain outcomes and update those estimates in light of new information. This article provides guidance to managers on how they can improve that process by more explicitly adopting a Bayesian approach. Clear understanding and application of the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate probability estimates, resulting in better informed decisions. More importantly, adopting a Bayesian approach, even informally, promises to improve the quality of managerial thinking, analysis, and decisions in a variety of additional ways.

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