scholarly journals MODELOS DE PREDICCIÓN PARA EL SECTOR TURÍSTICO ANDALUZ MEDIANTE MÉTODOS ESTADÍSTICOS AVANZADOS

2021 ◽  
pp. 183-208
Author(s):  
Francisca J. Sánchez Sánchez ◽  
Ana M. Sánchez Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Component ◽  
The Real ◽  
The One ◽  
Combined Methods

En el trabajo se modeliza la serie temporal “turistas que visitan Andalucía”, variable que presenta una fuerte componente estacional. Se plantea y analiza la capacidad predictiva de tres modelos diferentes, aplicando distintas metodologías de modelización (Box-Jenkins, Holt-Winters y métodos combinados). Se comparan los resultados obtenidos de las predicciones con los valores reales de la serie de turismo, valorándose la buena capacidad predictiva de las tres metodologías empleadas. Se comprueba que el procedimiento clásico de Holt-Winters es el que ofrece mejores resultados predictivos. In the work, the time series "tourists were visiting Andalusia" is modeled, a variable that has a strong seasonal component. The forecasting capacity of three different models is considered and analyzed, applying different modeling methodologies (Box-Jenkins, Holt-Winters and combined methods). The results obtained from the predictions are compared with the real values of the tourism series, assessing the good forecasting capacity of the three methodologies used. It is verified that the classic Holt-Winters procedure is the one that offers the best predictive results.

Hidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Capital Management ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The One

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

scholarly journals A novel approach to the computation of one-loop three- and four-point functions: I. The real mass case

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
J Ph Guillet ◽  
E Pilon ◽  
Y Shimizu ◽  
M S Zidi
Keyword(s):  
Building Blocks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Alternative Method ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Reduction Methods ◽  
Real Mass ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Algebraic Reduction ◽  
The One ◽  
Mass Case

Abstract This article is the first of a series of three presenting an alternative method of computing the one-loop scalar integrals. This novel method enjoys a couple of interesting features as compared with the method closely following ’t Hooft and Veltman adopted previously. It directly proceeds in terms of the quantities driving algebraic reduction methods. It applies to the three-point functions and, in a similar way, to the four-point functions. It also extends to complex masses without much complication. Lastly, it extends to kinematics more general than that of the physical, e.g., collider processes relevant at one loop. This last feature may be useful when considering the application of this method beyond one loop using generalized one-loop integrals as building blocks.

PP469 From Theory To Practice: Which Value Framework Is Applied For Onco-Hematology Therapies In Italy? A 5-year Retrospective Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (S1) ◽  
pp. 37-37
Author(s):  
Americo Cicchetti ◽  
Rossella Di Bidino ◽  
Entela Xoxi ◽  
Irene Luccarini ◽  
Alessia Brigido
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
National Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
European Medicines Agency ◽  
The Real ◽  
R Process ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionDifferent value frameworks (VFs) have been proposed in order to translate available evidence on risk-benefit profiles of new treatments into Pricing & Reimbursement (P&R) decisions. However limited evidence is available on the impact of their implementation. It's relevant to distinguish among VFs proposed by scientific societies and providers, which usually are applicable to all treatments, and VFs elaborated by regulatory agencies and health technology assessment (HTA), which focused on specific therapeutic areas. Such heterogeneity in VFs has significant implications in terms of value dimension considered and criteria adopted to define or support a price decision.MethodsA literature research was conducted to identify already proposed or adopted VF for onco-hematology treatments. Both scientific and grey literature were investigated. Then, an ad hoc data collection was conducted for multiple myeloma; breast, prostate and urothelial cancer; and Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) therapies. Pharmaceutical products authorized by European Medicines Agency from January 2014 till December 2019 were identified. Primary sources of data were European Public Assessment Reports and P&R decision taken by the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) till September 2019.ResultsThe analysis allowed to define a taxonomy to distinguish categories of VF relevant to onco-hematological treatments. We identified the “real-world” VF that emerged given past P&R decisions taken at the Italian level. Data was collected both for clinical and economical outcomes/indicators, as well as decisions taken on innovativeness of therapies. Relevant differences emerge between the real world value framework and the one that should be applied given the normative framework of the Italian Health System.ConclusionsThe value framework that emerged from the analysis addressed issues of specific aspects of onco-hematological treatments which emerged during an ad hoc analysis conducted on treatment authorized in the last 5 years. The perspective adopted to elaborate the VF was the one of an HTA agency responsible for P&R decisions at a national level. Furthermore, comparing a real-world value framework with the one based on the general criteria defined by the national legislation, our analysis allowed identification of the most critical point of the current national P&R process in terms ofsustainability of current and future therapies as advance therapies and agnostic-tumor therapies.

DISTRIBUTIONS OF LOCAL MANDELBROT-HURST EXPONENTS: MOTOR ACTIVITY IN FETAL RATS OF COCAINIZED MOTHERS AND MANIC-DEPRESSIVE PATIENTS

Fractals ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 03 (04) ◽  
pp. 893-904 ◽  
Author(s):  
KAREN A. SELZ ◽  
ARNOLD J. MANDELL ◽  
CARL M. ANDERSON ◽  
WILLIAM P. SMOTHERMAN ◽  
MARTIN H. TEICHER
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Motor Activity ◽  
Motor Behavior ◽  
Pregnant Rats ◽  
Behavioral Systems ◽  
Statistical Indices ◽  
Manic Depressive ◽  
The One ◽  
Depressive Patients ◽  
Hurst Exponents

Intermittency, in which the normalized weight of large fluctuations grows for increasingly longer statistical samples, is seen as irregular bursting activity in time and is characteristic of the behavior of many brain and behavioral systems. This pattern has been related to the brain-stabilizing interplay of the general mechanisms of silence-evoked sensitization and activity-evoked desensitization, which can be found at most levels of neurobiological function and which vary more smoothly and at much longer times than the phasic observables. We use both the global Mandelbrot-Hurst exponent and the distribution of local Mandelbrot-Hurst exponents, in combination with dynamical entropies, to quantitate the property of nonuniform persistence which we treat as both deterministically expansive and statistically diffusive. For example, varying the parameter of the one-dimensional, Manneville-Pomeau intermittency map generated time series which demonstrated systematic changes in these statistical indices of persistence. Relatively small doses of cocaine administered to pregnant rats increased statistical indices of expansiveness and persistence in fetal motor behavior. These techniques also model and characterize a breakdown of statistical scaling in 72-hour time series of the amount of motor activity in some hospitalized manic-depressive patients.

La fotografia live istant come dispositivo costruttivo di booty Looting di Wim Vanderkeybus.

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arianna Novaga
Keyword(s):  
False Memories ◽  
Art World ◽  
The Real ◽  
Photographic Image ◽  
Dance Company ◽  
Susan Sontag ◽  
Live Music ◽  
The One ◽  
Venice Biennale

The Belgian theatre-dance company Ultima Vez – founded by the director and choreographer Wim Vandekeybus – presented Booty Looting in 2012, at the Venice Biennale Danza. On the stage, a complex and apparently disordered narrative rhapsody, brings into play complementary diegetic coefficients: while a story straddles the real and the imaginary, the dancers become consumed actors, the actors dance and live music fills the empty spaces. But the real beating heart of the show is the photographer, who is entrusted with the delicate task of deciphering the feverish dynamism of the scene to move the public's attention elsewhere, as if to give them a relaxing break from the chaos. The photographic image, taken and reported in real time on the screen at the bottom of the stage, freezes some salient moments of that convulsive movement, almost to break it down anatomically into parts of a 'muybridgian' conception. The photographer, always active during the representation, is an integral part of the story, becoming a performer himself so that his intervention determines the dramaturgical development of the plot. The visual quality of the scene is strongly enhanced by live photographic images, which are often attributable to known visual models. Booty looting literally means stealing what has already been the object of theft, exactly as it happens in the art world, according to the perspective of Vandekeybus. Photography is seen here as an instrument that on the one hand makes it useful to prove the reality of facts, but at the same time declares its ability to lie, to deform memory, to create false memories, to become misleading echoes of experiences actually lived. Between truth and deceit, the photographic image plunders the world and gives us the feeling of being able to know and know it in depth - as Susan Sontag teaches - but it is only a distorted memory that confuses and falsifies the real.

The Ultimate Sophistication of Special Theory of Relativity

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 43-49
Author(s):  
Hamdoon A. Khan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Special Relativity ◽  
Special Theory ◽  
Mathematical Approach ◽  
Theory Of Relativity ◽  
Special Theory Of Relativity ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Past ◽  
The One ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Faster Than Light

With the consideration of the light which carries the photon particles, the Lorentz transformation was constructed with an impressive mathematical approach. But the generalization of that equation for all the velocities of the universe is direct enforcement on other things not to travel faster than light. It has created serious issues in every scientific research that was done in the last century based on the special theory of relativity. This paper replaces the velocity of light with some other velocities and shows us the possible consequences and highlights the issues of special relativity. If I travel through my past or future and was able to see another me there, who would be the real Hamdoon I or the one I see there in the past or future! If the real one is only me, the one I saw, is not me, so, I could not travel through my or someone else's past or future. Therefore, no one can travel through time. If both of us are the same, can the key of personal identity be duplicated or be separated into two or more parts? These are some of the fundamental philosophical arguments that annihilate the concept of time travel which is one of the sequels of special relativity.

On indirect Methods of acquiring Knowledge - The Method of History. - The First Table of Mortality

1851 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-46
Author(s):  
Edwin James Farren
Keyword(s):  
Real Line ◽  
English Language ◽  
The Other ◽  
Adult Student ◽  
Indirect Methods ◽  
The Real ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Point To Point ◽  
The One

The term scholar, as current in the English language, has two extreme acceptations, tyro and proficient; or what the later Greeks fancifully termed the alpha and omega of acquirement. If we attempt to trace the steps by which even the adult student of any especial branch of professional or literary knowledge has fairly passed the boundary defined by the one meaning in passing on to that position denoted by the other, it will commonly be found, that in place of that lucid order, that straight line from point to point, which theory and resolve generally premise, the real order of acquirement has been desultory—the real line of progression, circuitous and uncertain.

scholarly journals The “Establishment”, the “Élites”, and the “People”

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 551-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Wodak
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
The Real ◽  
The People ◽  
Politics Of Fear ◽  
The One ◽  
Disenchantment With Politics

Abstract In this paper, I discuss the attempt by all right-wing populist parties to create, on the one hand, the ‘real’ and ‘true’ people; and on the other, the ‘élites’ or ‘the establishment’ who are excluded from the true demos. Such divisions, as will be elaborated in detail, have emerged in many societies over centuries and decades. A brief example of the arbitrary construction of opposing groups illustrates the intricacies of such populist reasoning. Furthermore, I pose the question why such divisions resonate so well in many countries? I argue that – apart from a politics of fear (Wodak 2015) – much resentment is evoked which could be viewed as both accompanying as well as a reaction to the disenchantment with politics and the growing inequalities in globalized capitalist societies.

scholarly journals A novel deseasonalized time series model with an improved seasonal estimate for groundwater level predictions

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mohanasundaram ◽  
G. Suresh Kumar ◽  
Balaji Narasimhan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Seasonal Component ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Interval Approach ◽  
Prediction And Forecasting ◽  
Observation Wells

Abstract Groundwater level prediction and forecasting using univariate time series models are useful for effective groundwater management under data limiting conditions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models are widely used for modeling groundwater level data as the groundwater level signals possess the seasonality pattern. Alternatively, deseasonalized autoregressive and moving average models (Ds-ARMA) can be modeled with deseasonalized groundwater level signals in which the seasonal component is estimated and removed from the raw groundwater level signals. The seasonal component is traditionally estimated by calculating long-term averaging values of the corresponding months in the year. This traditional way of estimating seasonal component may not be appropriate for non-stationary groundwater level signals. Thus, in this study, an improved way of estimating the seasonal component by adopting a 13-month moving average trend and corresponding confidence interval approach has been attempted. To test the proposed approach, two representative observation wells from Adyar basin, India were modeled by both traditional and proposed methods. It was observed from this study that the proposed model prediction performance was better than the traditional model's performance with R2 values of 0.82 and 0.93 for the corresponding wells' groundwater level data.

scholarly journals MEMBANGUN SEMANGAT KERASULAN REMAJA KATOLIK DALAM KONTEKS MASYARAKAT PLURALIS DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3-14
Author(s):  
Agustinus Supriyadi
Keyword(s):  
Logical Consequence ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Form ◽  
Pluralistic Society ◽  
The Real ◽  
Self Discovery ◽  
The One ◽  
The Church

Catholic teens Indonesia is part of the Church in Indonesia and the Indonesian people. Indonesia consists of thousands of islands that stretched from Sabang to Merauke. This fact opens the possibility of a fairly wide occurrence of the encounter between cultures and simultaneous cross-cultural. This diversity is certainly a logical consequence to an enrichment of civilizations and diversity (plurality), although also contains elements of the loss. Plurality of Indonesian society on the one hand can make the Catholic teens swept away in the swift currents of the community to lose our identity or conflict. However Plurality can also awaken in the Catholic teen award nature between one race to the other races, between ethnic or tribal one with the other tribes, between groups with one another. In a pluralistic society such as this, the Catholic teens called to the apostolate. Through the act of self-discovery, live in love and have a sense of tolerance of differences is the real form of the apostolate.

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