scholarly journals Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions

2005 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 67-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Himmelberg ◽  
Christopher Mayer ◽  
Todd Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
The State ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Time Pattern ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
The Cost

How does one tell when rapid growth in house prices is caused by fundamental factors of supply and demand and when it is an unsustainable bubble? In this paper, we explain how to assess the state of house prices—both whether there is a bubble and what underlying factors support housing demand—in a way that is grounded in economic theory. In doing so, we correct four common fallacies about the costliness of the housing market. For a number of reasons, conventional metrics for assessing pricing in the housing market such as price-to-rent ratios or price-to-income ratios generally fail to reflect accurately the state of housing costs. To the eyes of analysts employing such measures, housing markets can appear “exuberant” even when houses are in fact reasonably priced. We construct a measure for evaluating the cost of home owning that is standard for economists—the imputed annual rental cost of owning a home, a variant of the user cost of housing—and apply it to 25 years of history across a wide variety of housing markets. This calculation enables us to estimate the time pattern of housing costs within a market. As of the end of 2004, our analysis reveals little evidence of a housing bubble.

scholarly journals Housing Price Forecasting in Selected Polish Cities During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 59-80
Author(s):  
Mirosław Bełej
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Housing Price Dynamics ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Negative Shock

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a combined supply and demand shock to the financial and housing market but also an unusual negative shock in terms of the health of society (households) and national economy. The fall in housing demand was initially assumed together with price decreases as a consequence of the uncertainty of the health of society, significant falls in stock markets and corporate solvency. However, the results of research in selected Polish cities do not indicate such a significant market recession. This article examines the housing price dynamics and forecasting in Polish cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The TRAMO/SEATS and ARIMA models were used for the decomposition and forecasting of dwelling time series. The Polish housing market, represented by selected local housing markets, still shows a growing trend despite the COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020. The housing market may slow down in 2021, but the strong forecasted growth trends in Warszawa and Poznań suggest that there will be no significant price decline in Poland in the near future.

A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-301
Author(s):  
Jan R. Kim ◽  
Gieyoung Lim
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Present Value Model ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Steep Rise ◽  
Value Model ◽  
German Housing Market

The steep rise in German house prices in recent years raises the question of whether a speculative bubble has already emerged. Using a modified present-value model, we estimate the size of speculative house price bubbles in the German housing market. We do not find evidence for positive bubble accumulation in recent years, and interpret the current bullish run as reflecting the correction of house prices that have been undervalued for more than 10 years. With house prices close to their fair values as of 2018:Q1, our answer to the question is, ‘Not yet, but it is likely soon’.

scholarly journals Is there a bubble in the Swedish housing market?

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maher Asal
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Test Procedure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
User Cost ◽  
Return To Equilibrium ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the presence of a housing bubble using Swedish data from 1986Q1-2016Q4 by using various methods. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors use affordability indicators and asset-pricing approaches, including the price-to-income ratio, price-to-rent ratio and user cost, supplemented by a qualitative discussion of other factors affecting house prices. Second, the authors use cointegration techniques to compute the fundamental (or long-run) price, which is then compared with the actual price to test the degree of Sweden’s housing price bubble during the studied period. Third, they apply the univariate right-tailed unit root test procedure to capture bursting bubbles and to date-stamp bubbles. Findings The authors find evidence for rational housing bubbles with explosive behavioral components beginning in 2004. These bubbles do not continuously diverge but instead periodically revert to their fundamental value. However, the deviation is persistent, and without any policy correction, it takes decades for real house prices to return to equilibrium. Originality/value The policy implication is that monetary policy designed to contain mortgage demand and thereby prevent burst episodes in the housing market must address external imbalances, as revealed in real exchange rate undervaluation. It is unlikely that current policies will stop the rise of house prices, as the growth of mortgage credit, improvement in Sweden’s international competitiveness and the path of interest rates are much more important factors.

Research about the Disequilibrium Degree of Supplying and Demanding Market for Newly-Built Commodity-Housing from 1998 to 2011 in Xian

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 3115-3118
Author(s):  
Jian Ping Yang ◽  
Fan Ming Meng
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
The State ◽  
Land Supply ◽  
Equilibrium Degree ◽  
Load Rate ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Spss Software ◽  
Disequilibrium Theory

Basing on the disequilibrium theory, taking use of SPSS software, taking advantaging of multiple linear regression methodology, this article analyzed the state of supply and demand of newly built commodity-housing market from1998 to 2011 in Xian, constructed the equation about land supply, housing price, load rate and housing-supply, and constructed the equation about per capita disposable income, and housing-demand. Basing on the supply-equation and demand-equation, this article obtained the state of supply and demand of new-built commodity- housing in Xian, at last, calculated the non-equilibrium degree and drew a conclusion.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE HOUSING MARKET IN LITHUANIA

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 271-280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feliksas Ivanauskas ◽  
Rimantas Eidukevičius ◽  
Albinas Marčinskas ◽  
Birutė Galinienė
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Given ◽  
The Relationship

Cointegration and Granger causality tests were used for the statistical analyses of the housing market in Lithuania. The relationship between the cost of housing and afford‐ability on the one hand, and interest rates, GDP and average incomes on the other was not proven to exist using the given statistical methods. The period of increase in the cost of housing in Lithuania over the last five years is exceptional and difficult to explain using fundamental economic factors and their fluctuation trends alone. The cost of housing has made a clear departure from the economic (business) cycle; the economy has grown, however at a much slower rate than rising costs in the housing market. The reasons for this situation are record lows in interest rates, good conditions to gain financing, the liberalisation of financial markets, speculative attitudes in expectation of the introduction of the Euro, and a divide between the supply and demand of housing that is available. It should be noted that the evaluation of the influence of these factors on fluctuations in costs in the housing market is more hypothetical in nature. Santrauka Nekilnojamojo turto rinkos Lietuvoje statistinei analizei buvo naudojami kointegravimo ir Grangerio priežastingumo testai. Taikant esamus statistinius metodus nebuvo įrodyta, kad egzistavo ryšys tarp nekilnojamojo turto kainos ir įperkamumo, viena vertus, ir palūkanų normų, BVP bei vidutinių pajamų, kita vertus. Nekilnojamojo turto kainos Lietuvoje didėjimo per pastaruosius penketą metų laikotarpis yra išskirtinis ir sunkiai paaiškinamas remiantis vien pagrindiniais ekonominiais veiksniais ir jų svyravimų tendencijomis. Nekilnojamojo turto kaina aiškiai nukrypo nuo ekonomikos (verslo) ciklo; ekonomika išaugo, tačiau gerokai lėtesniu tempu nei augančios kainos nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje. Šios situacijos priežastys – rekordiškai mažos palūkanų normos, geros sąlygos gauti fi nansavimą, fi nansų rinkos liberalizavimas, spekuliaciniai požiūriai tikintis įsivesti eurą ir takoskyra tarp esamo nekilnojamojo turto pasiūlos ir paklausos. Pažymėtina, kad šių veiksnių įtakos kainų svyravimo nekilnojamojo turto rinkoje įvertinimas yra labiau hipotetinis.

scholarly journals HOUSING POLICIES IN SINGAPORE: EVALUATION OF RECENT PROPOSALS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REFORM

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (03) ◽  
pp. 1450025 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOCK-YONG PHANG ◽  
DAVID LEE ◽  
ALAN CHEONG ◽  
KOK-FAI PHOON ◽  
KAROL WEE
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Property Taxes ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Housing Policies ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
The Government

The Singapore housing market is unusual in its high homeownership rate, the dominance of HDB housing, and the extensive intervention of the government in regulating housing supply and demand in both the HDB and private housing sectors. Recent rapid population increases in a low interest rate and high global liquidity environment has resulted in accelerated house prices increases in Singapore. Earlier this year, the government launched "Our Singapore Conversation" of which discussion on housing policies constitutes one major component. This "conversation" comes in the wake of several consecutive rounds of measures to stabilize housing prices using various instruments. This paper evaluates the main policy changes proposed and makes recommendations for housing market reforms: (i) the government need to clarify goals of housing policies and make available more detailed data on the foreign component of our population for better analysis of housing markets; (ii) the housing supply regime should target an overall effective vacancy rate that encompasses both the Housing and Development Board (HDB) and private sector; (iii) policy makers need to monitor carefully excess demand indicators for housing in addition to housing affordability indicators over the entire spectrum of incomes and household types; (iv) housing REITs should be established to provide an alternative investment option as well as to develop an efficient and affordable rental sector; and (v) in addition to macroprudential measures, owner-occupancy requirements and fiscal measures such as stamp duties and property taxes could be further utilized to reduce the foreign demand for Singapore housing and real estate.

scholarly journals Club convergence of house prices: Evidence from China’s ten key cities

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 1550181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Meng ◽  
Wen-Jie Xie ◽  
Wei-Xing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Chinese Housing Market

The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a marked fall during the global financial tsunami and China’s economy has also slowed down by about 2%–3% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than 10 years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here, we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing 10 representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The 10 key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices among different cities.

Time-frequency linkages of international housing markets and macroeconomic drivers

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik Marfatia
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Direction Of Causation ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The studies on international housing markets have not modeled frequency domain and focused only on the time domain. The purpose of the present research is to fill this gap by using the state-of-the-art econometric technique of wavelets to understand how differences in the horizon of analysis across time impact international housing markets’ relationship with some of the key macroeconomic variables. The purpose is to also analyze the direction of causation in the relationships. Design/methodology/approach The author uses the novel time–frequency analysis of international housing markets’ linkages to the macroeconomic drivers. Unlike conventional approaches that do not distinguish between time and frequency domain, the author uses wavelets to study house prices’ relationship with its drivers in the time–frequency space. The novelty of the approach also allows gaining insights into the debates that deal with the direction of causation between house price changes and macroeconomic variables. Findings Results show that the relationship between house prices and key macroeconomic indicators varies significantly across countries, time, frequencies and the direction of causation. House prices are most related to interest rates at the higher frequencies (short-run) and per capita income growth at the lower frequencies (long-run). The role of industrial production and income growth has switched over time at lower frequencies, particularly, in Finland, France, Sweden and Japan. The stock market’s nexus with the housing market is significant mainly at high to medium frequencies around the recent financial crisis. Research limitations/implications The present research implies that in contrast to the existing approaches that are limited to the only time domain, the frequency considerations are equally, if not more, important. Practical implications Results show that interested researchers and analysts of international housing markets need to account for the both horizon and time under consideration. Because the factors that drive high-frequency movements in housing market are very different from low-frequency movements. Furthermore, these roles vary over time. Social implications The insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing social change in the housing markets need to account for the time–frequency dynamics found in this study. Originality/value The paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to propose the use of a time–frequency approach in modeling international housing market dynamics. Second, unlike present studies, it is the first to uncover the direction of causation between house prices and economic variables for each frequency at every point of time.

The Yorkshire Registries of Deeds

Urban History ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 40-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Archer ◽  
R. K. Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Precise Information ◽  
Urban Economic ◽  
Urban Economic Development

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the process of urban economic development and the role of housing markets in this process is as essential as it is obvious. In order to make progress towards providing answers to some of the important questions relating to the development of towns, it is necessary to try to obtain more precise information on trends in house prices, the level and structure of housing demand and the character of the supply side of the markets. Studies of local housing markets, however, have been constrained by the lack of reliable data on the most important variables and are, therefore, characteristically qualitative and descriptive. Our main objective, therefore, when embarking on the study described below, was to obtain reliable data on which to base analyses of local housing markets.

scholarly journals PRICING OF REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS, THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ASPECTS

2017 ◽  
pp. 138-146
Author(s):  
V. Zapototska
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
The State ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Market Process ◽  
Economic Theories ◽  
Regional Housing Market

The article covers the theoretical and applied principles of price formation for housing within regional markets. In research process was found that the development of the regional housing market is subordinated to the action of regional development theories and general economic theories (cost and price). Among the spatial theories the influence of theories of agriculture placing and industry, central places, geographical location of economy, the theories of “growth poles”, “diffusion of innovations”, “center-periphery theory”, “city-centrality”. Economic theories are theories which actually are based on market process, formation of free market and theories of market`s processes regulation. It is proved that such theories do joint influence on pricing and the pricing mechanisms. It is proved that such theories do common influence on price formation and the pricing mechanisms. It was found, that pricing is an objective process, for determining and establishing prices within the region, which occurs primarily at regional and local level, touching individual regional market and is subjected to regulation by the state. It was established, that the formation of regional housing markets are too difficult process and are indicated by a large number of factors influencing to the processes of its formation. Through theoretical generalization, we identified six groups of factors that have a direct and indirect impact on supply and demand on the regional housing market. To the first group of factors attributed territorial housing market factors, among which are selected location of the property, infrastructure providing of this territory and ecological situation. The second group of factors includes quality characteristics of housing, among which are: construction materials; working characteristics and wearing out; architectural and planning features of the property. The third group is represented by economic factors, which include income of population, income of developers or property developers; the overall level of development of a region or settlement; investment factor; mortgage factor speculative factor and construction industry development in general. Group of demographic-settlement factors include an assessment of the demographic situation, labor market in the region, migration processes, the system of settlement and security of this area. Legislative and legal factors manifested through the state and regional policy in the housing market, housing programs, taxation processes, lending insurance and in the housing market. Social and psychological factors include behavior and preferences of consumers, price expectations, seasonality, ethnic or religious characteristics of the region. Here are presented the dynamics and confirmed differentiation in housing prices within the largest cities in Ukraine and in the city of Kyiv.

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