Predicting Detached Housing Vacancy: A Multilevel Analysis

Urban shrinkage is a critical issue in local small- and medium-sized cities in Korea. While there have been several studies to analyze the causes and consequences of vacancy increases, most have only focused on socioeconomic associations at larger scale and failed to consider individual housing level characteristics, primarily due to a lack of appropriate data. Based on data including 52,400 individual parcels, this study analyzes the primary contributors to vacant properties and their spatial distribution through a multilevel model design based on data for each parcel. Then, we identify areas at high risk of vacancy in the future to provide evidence to establish policies for improving the local environment. Results indicate that construction year, building structure, and road access conditions have a significant effect on vacant properties at the individual parcel level, and the presence of schools and hypermarket within 500 m are found to decrease vacant properties. Further, prediction outcomes show that the aged city center and areas with strict regulations on land use are expected to have a higher vacancy rate. These findings are used to provide a set of data-based revitalization strategies through the development of a vacancy prediction model.

THE IMPACT OF LABOUR MARKET ON MIGRATION PROCESS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE

The article presents the results of the study of the main trends of the labor market in Central and Eastern Europe during 2010-2021; it also investigates selected labour market outcomes affecting migration processes in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Hungary. Using econometric modeling, the impact of GDP per capita, annual net earnings per employee, job vacancy rate, unemployment rate on the number of emigrants from these CEE countries was estimated. It is followed by the analysis which controls for dependence of the number of immigrants to CEE countries on labor market outcomes and GDP per capita. The simulation results demonstrate a direct impact of the indicators of net earnings per worker, the level of unemployment and quantity of emigrants from CEE countries. At the same time, there is a direct relationship between job vacancy rate, net earnings and immigration into Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Hungary.

GIS Based Multi-Criteria Land Suitability Assessment for Future Urban Development in The Country Park Peripheries of Hong Kong

In recent years, land supply in Hong Kong has fallen sharply and fails to keep pace with the growth of population and number of households. Land shortage becomes urgent and dire. With the inadequate provision of residential land, housing supply is also adversely affected.Insufficient housing supply leads to surging property and rental price in the private market. According to the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD), the overall private domestic price index peaked in June 2017 at 336.1. Keen housing demand is also observed in the private rental market. RVD statistics showed that the domestic rental index also reached the peak at 183.6 in June 2017 and the vacancy rate of about 3.8% as at the end-2016, which is much lower than the average vacancy rate of 5% from 1996 to 2015 (Development Bureau, 2017).In addition, there is soaring housing demand in public housing. As at the end-December 2021, the average waiting time for general applicants was 5.7 years, which is nearly double of the Housing Authority’s target for providing the first flat offer to general applicants at around three years on average (Housing Authority, 2021). Identifying and securing sufficient land to meet both current and anticipated pressing housing demand becomes a key challenge of the government. In the light of this, the government has established a dedicated task force (Task Force on Land Supply) in September 2017 and appointed 30 professionals from different disciplines, such as planning, engineering, academia and think tank, to take a Marco-review on the land supply sources, look for feasible options as well as consider the pros and cons of various options. 18 land supply options were worked out for the public to make choices in the public engagement exercise. Among the 18 choices, the development area on the Periphery of Country Parks was regarded as one of the land supplies sources. This option does not only include the Hong Kong Housing Society’s studies on developing Two Pilot Areas on the Periphery of Tai Lam and Man On Shan Country Parks, but also include developing more areas on the periphery of Country Parks. The proposed option received overwhelming attention from the public and aroused debates in various perspectives. Its ecological value, recreational value, financial viability and even legitimacy were discussed. However, spatial analysis on the suitability of having residential development in Country Parks has not been conducted. Therefore, in this study, multi criteria GIS analysis is conducted to evaluate the geographic suitability of Hong Kong Country Parks for residential purpose with the consideration of various criteria.

Stimulating the rental market : federal and provincial housing policy from 1935-2019

[Para. 1 of Introduction] The Canadian Rental Housing Index outlines that in 2018, Ontario’s rental market is as unhealthy as it has ever been (Canadian Rental Housing Index, n.d.). This is due to the fact that the supply of rental housing has not kept up with the growing demand for this tenure type. From 2011-2016, the average rate of renter formation1 was approximately 34,000 renter households per year (Urbanation, 2019). During this same period approximately 5,000 purpose-built rental units were completed CMHC, 2018). This misalignment between the supply and demand of rental housing has resulted in extremely low vacancy rates. In 2017, the vacancy rate in Ontario hit 1.6%, the lowest it has been since 2000 (CMHC, 2017). It is important to recognize that the roots of this problem in Ontario reach back further than the last ten years, but the problems have become increasingly acute during this time frame.

Stimulating the rental market : federal and provincial housing policy from 1935-2019

[Para. 1 of Introduction] The Canadian Rental Housing Index outlines that in 2018, Ontario’s rental market is as unhealthy as it has ever been (Canadian Rental Housing Index, n.d.). This is due to the fact that the supply of rental housing has not kept up with the growing demand for this tenure type. From 2011-2016, the average rate of renter formation1 was approximately 34,000 renter households per year (Urbanation, 2019). During this same period approximately 5,000 purpose-built rental units were completed CMHC, 2018). This misalignment between the supply and demand of rental housing has resulted in extremely low vacancy rates. In 2017, the vacancy rate in Ontario hit 1.6%, the lowest it has been since 2000 (CMHC, 2017). It is important to recognize that the roots of this problem in Ontario reach back further than the last ten years, but the problems have become increasingly acute during this time frame.

Dynamics of commercial real estate market segments in the post-pandemic period

Research background: Commercial real estate segments have reacted differently to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, announced early last year. Thus, the greatest interest is represented by commercial, service and warehouse real estate. The retail segment seriously felt the restrictions in the work of retail and service enterprises from March to July 2020 – due to the rotation of operators, the departure of many players from the market, the vacancy rate of space increased, the average rental rate decreased due to the revision of lease agreements. Warehouse real estate, on the contrary, has received incentives for development due to a twofold increase in online trade in Russia – the vacancy rate in the most high-quality areas tends to 0-2%, the average rental rate is growing rapidly. Purpose of the article: to analyze the commercial real estate market in the context of retail and warehouse real estate in the regions of Russia and St. Petersburg, to develop mechanisms to increase their competitiveness in the postcovid period. Methods: description, comparison, analogy, generalization and correlation and regression analysis. Findings & Value added: there is a high dependence of the current state of retail and warehouse real estate on the growing volumes of online trade, which causes certain trends: the growth of the shortage of warehouse space and the increase in the vacancy rate of retail space-mechanisms have been developed to increase the competitiveness of commercial real estate operators in St. Petersburg and the regions