scholarly journals Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei V Tkachenko ◽  
Sergei Maslov ◽  
Tong Wang ◽  
Ahmed Elbana ◽  
George N Wong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Dynamic Heterogeneity ◽  
Multiple Features ◽  
Individual Variations ◽  
Endemic State

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our Stochastic Social Activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.

scholarly journals Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus and an endemic state

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei V. Tkachenko ◽  
Sergei Maslov ◽  
Tong Wang ◽  
Ahmed Elbanna ◽  
George N. Wong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Dynamic Heterogeneity ◽  
Multiple Features ◽  
Individual Variations ◽  
Endemic State

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic in broad agreement with empirical data. Our model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of the long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to the endemic state.

scholarly journals Coupling Epidemiological Models with Social Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Giambiagi Ferrari ◽  
Juan Pablo Pinasco ◽  
Nicolas Saintier
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Epidemiological Models

scholarly journals The power of place: Trauma recovery and memorialization

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Arel
Keyword(s):  
Life Events ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Emotional Availability ◽  
Symbolic Meaning ◽  
Potential Space ◽  
Trauma Recovery ◽  
Working Through ◽  
Memorial Museums

In this paper, places of trauma, physical locations that reflect the Celtic spiritual concept of “thin places,” simultaneously represent real life events, possess symbolic meaning, and become places for active, engaged social activity related to memorialization. I explore how these places create a potential space for working through trauma, drawing on Judith Herman’s fundamental stages of recovery which she articulates as “establishing safety, reconstructing the trauma story, and restoring the connection between survivors and their communities.” I argue that memorial museums attending to trauma can guide the process of working through suffering to growth and transformation, thus benefiting witnesses, survivors and family members, and employees who immerse themselves in the stories they memorialize in order to facilitate empathy and emotional availability to visitors of all types. This community commemorating communal

Conclusions from Social Dynamics in Collaborative Environmental Didactics

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-92
Author(s):  
Gilbert Ahamer
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Team Work ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Social Self ◽  
Sustainable Solutions ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Independent Expert ◽  
Future Society ◽  
The Individual

The social and didactic dynamics produced in implementations of the negotiation-oriented and partly web-based game “Surfing Global Change” (SGC) was analyzed by independent experts after their observations in advanced interdisciplinary university courses. It could be empirically demonstrated that the intended didactics of SGC were successful; namely that they were grounded on “active, self-organized learning”, training of “competence to act” and on responsibility for both practicable and sustainable solutions for the future society. The outlay of SGC succeeds in equilibrating competition vs. consensus, self-study vs. team work, sharpening the individual standpoint vs. readiness to compromise, differentiation into details vs. integration into a whole and hence mirrors professional realities. In this spirit, the architecture of SGC gives a framework for “game based learning” along its five interactive game levels. The conclusion is made that the set of game rules acts as a boundary condition for expected processes of social self-organization. The independent expert opinions express the importance of self-responsibility, for example when defining team size (ideally 3-5), during the identification of students with a project relevant to real life, and with the trainer staying on the meta level without entering into student discussions. Hence, self-organization in SGC allows for self-responsibility.

scholarly journals Disentangling the behavioural variability of confined cell migration

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (163) ◽  
pp. 20190689 ◽  
Author(s):  
David B. Brückner ◽  
Alexandra Fink ◽  
Joachim O. Rädler ◽  
Chase P. Broedersz
Keyword(s):  
Cell Migration ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Biological Processes ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Cell To Cell Variability ◽  
Additional Variance

Cell-to-cell variability is inherent to numerous biological processes, including cell migration. Quantifying and characterizing the variability of migrating cells is challenging, as it requires monitoring many cells for long time windows under identical conditions. Here, we observe the migration of single human breast cancer cells (MDA-MB-231) in confining two-state micropatterns. To describe the stochastic dynamics of this confined migration, we employ a dynamical systems approach. We identify statistics to measure the behavioural variance of the migration, which significantly exceeds that predicted by a population-averaged stochastic model. This additional variance can be explained by the combination of an ‘ageing’ process and population heterogeneity. To quantify population heterogeneity, we decompose the cells into subpopulations of slow and fast cells, revealing the presence of distinct classes of dynamical systems describing the migration, ranging from bistable to limit cycle behaviour. Our findings highlight the breadth of migration behaviours present in cell populations.

scholarly journals Co-Designing an Intervention to Prevent Overweight and Obesity among Young Children and Their Families in a Disadvantaged Municipality: Methodological Barriers and Potentials

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (24) ◽  
pp. 5110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didde Hoeeg ◽  
Ulla Christensen ◽  
Dan Grabowski
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Process Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Intervention Context ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Family Based

Design-based research (DBR) is an innovative methodology for co-creation, but potentials, challenges, and differences between methodological ideals and the real-life intervention context are under-researched. This study analyzes the DBR process in which researchers, professionals, and families co-design a family-based intervention to prevent childhood overweight and obesity in a rural municipality. It involves interviews with six key stakeholders in the co-design process. Data were coded and analyzed using systematic text condensation, while the theory of the “social effectiveness of interventions” developed by Rod et al. (2014) was used as an analytical tool for unpacking the co-creation process and exploring methodological barriers and potentials. The DBR approach contributed with a feeling that everyone’s perspective was important, and the professionals got a new perspective on the families’ experiences with healthy living they did not previously consider. We also found that the iterative design process did not fully align with the organizational structures in the municipality or with the needs of stakeholders, leading to friction in the partnership. This study emphasizes the complexity of using an anti-hierarchical approach within a hierarchical context, and the importance of being aware of how the DBR approach shapes the partnership, as well as of how the social dynamics within the partnership shape the design process.

scholarly journals Estimating Epidemic Incidence and Prevalence from Genomic Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 1804-1816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy G Vaughan ◽  
Gabriel E Leventhal ◽  
David A Rasmussen ◽  
Alexei J Drummond ◽  
David Welch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Particle Filtering ◽  
Phylogenetic Trees ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Birth Death

Abstract Modern phylodynamic methods interpret an inferred phylogenetic tree as a partial transmission chain providing information about the dynamic process of transmission and removal (where removal may be due to recovery, death, or behavior change). Birth–death and coalescent processes have been introduced to model the stochastic dynamics of epidemic spread under common epidemiological models such as the SIS and SIR models and are successfully used to infer phylogenetic trees together with transmission (birth) and removal (death) rates. These methods either integrate analytically over past incidence and prevalence to infer rate parameters, and thus cannot explicitly infer past incidence or prevalence, or allow such inference only in the coalescent limit of large population size. Here, we introduce a particle filtering framework to explicitly infer prevalence and incidence trajectories along with phylogenies and epidemiological model parameters from genomic sequences and case count data in a manner consistent with the underlying birth–death model. After demonstrating the accuracy of this method on simulated data, we use it to assess the prevalence through time of the early 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone.

Keeping Warm in a Changing Place

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 344-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-hye Shin
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Popular Media ◽  
Symbolic Meanings ◽  
The Rich ◽  
C 30

This study examines the Korean ondol, the major residential heating method in Korea, and its related house features, particularly the rich symbolic meanings and associated lifestyles. By doing so, this study strives to understand the social aspects of Korean life that are embedded in the structure of Korean residential buildings. The study collected data from (a) scholarly articles on the ondol, (b) popular media, and (c) 30 interviews with elderly Koreans. Qualitative content analysis of these data reveals several contested meanings associated with the Korean ondol: thermal contrast, social dynamics, incubation, practice of everyday life, rootedness, healing/well-being, ethnic identity, modernization, and labor. While the narratives from the interviewees were firmly anchored in real-life situations, the narratives of popular media and scholarly articles showed departures from everyday experiences when discussing the ondol, often romanticizing and associating this building feature with Korean ethnic identity.

The Use of Broad Conversational Targets in Social Skills Training to Promote Generalization of Gains to Real Life: A Case Study

1984 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-67
Author(s):  
Ariel Stravynski
Keyword(s):  
Social Skills ◽  
Social Skills Training ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Baseline Design ◽  
General Improvement ◽  
Opposite Sex

Social dysfunction in a 45-year-old man was treated by a combination of exposure in vivo, social skills training and cognitive modification. Social skills training utilized broad conversational targets designed to help the patient to engage flexibly in social interactions and to be able to generate them in order to achieve his personal goals: to expand and increase his social contacts and meet the opposite sex.Change was assessed on the basis of the patient's records of daily frequency of performance of targeted behaviours and associated anxiety within a single-case multiple baseline design. Change occurred only with the introduction of treatment and not before it, ruling out effects of time or mere contact.The intervention resulted in an increased performance of social targets in real life, general social activity, and a related decrease in associated anxiety. The outcome was maintained for an available 1 year follow-up; systematic data collection was stopped after 6 months. A general improvement in the patient's personal, social and vocational life has also occurred.

scholarly journals Modeling latent infection transmissions through biosocial stochastic dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bosiljka Tadic ◽  
Roderick Melnik
Keyword(s):  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Latent Infection ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Hospital Environment ◽  
Medical Emergency ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
New Host ◽  
Infection Transmission

The events of the recent SARS-CoV-02 epidemics have shown the importance of social factors, especially given the large number of asymptomatic cases that effectively spread the virus, which can cause a medical emergency to very susceptible individuals. Besides, the SARS-CoV-02 virus survives for several hours on different surfaces, where a new host can contract it with a delay. These passive modes of infection transmission remain an unexplored area for traditional mean-field epidemic models. Here, we design an agent-based model for simulations of infection transmission in an open system driven by the dynamics of social activity; the model takes into account the personal characteristics of individuals, as well as the survival time of the virus and its potential mutations. A growing bipartite graph embodies this biosocial process, consisting of active carriers (host) nodes that produce viral nodes during their infectious period. With its directed edges passing through viral nodes between two successive hosts, this graph contains complete information about the routes leading to each infected individual. We determine temporal fluctuations of the number of exposed and the number of infected individuals, the number of active carriers and active viruses at hourly resolution. The simulated processes underpin the latent infection transmissions, contributing significantly to the spread of the virus within a large time window. More precisely, being brought by social dynamics and exposed to the currently existing infection, an individual passes through the infectious state until eventually spontaneously recovers or otherwise is moves to a controlled hospital environment. Our results reveal complex feedback mechanisms that shape the dependence of the infection curve on the intensity of social dynamics and other sociobiological factors. In particular, the results show how the lockdown effectively reduces the spread of infection and how it increases again after the lockdown is removed. Furthermore, a reduced level of social activity but prolonged exposure of susceptible individuals have adverse effects. On the other hand, virus mutations that can gradually reduce the transmission rate by hopping to each new host along the infection path can significantly reduce the extent of the infection, but can not stop the spreading without additional social strategies. Our stochastic processes, based on graphs at the interface of biology and social dynamics, provide a new mathematical framework for simulations of various epidemic control strategies with high temporal resolution and virus traceability.

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