Ground Fictions

2021 ◽  
pp. 86-103
Author(s):  
Meghan L. Morris

This chapter analyzes a context where the material fixity of land has been repeatedly called into question, examining how stories about soil's materiality become key factors in bringing new forms of property into being in post-conflict Colombia. The chapter demonstrates how soil's actual fluidity makes what it calls “ground fictions” central to many land claims. Building on long-term fieldwork in both rural Urabá and urban Medellín, it reveals that legal moves, such as land titling and the establishment of protected land reserves, are only part of market making. Surface water flows expand and dry up seasonally, making fictions of soil's dryness via alluvial accession central to encroaching claims to “new land” on Urabá's floodplains. Similarly, fictions about land's physical instability and landslide risk first became central to squatters' ability to access peripheral, nonmarket land in Medellín but subsequently undermined their ownership claims once the state sought to protect these long-neglected urban residents from their own risky soils. Ultimately, the juxtaposition of these two sites in the chapter sheds light on the ways that the soil becomes a crucial player in war and peace through its foundational role in the property rules that come to redefine both rural and urban land markets in the unfolding of the conflict and attempts to bring it to a close.

2018 ◽  
pp. 125-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Drobyshevsky ◽  
P. V. Trunin ◽  
A. V. Bozhechkova

The paper studies the factors of secular stagnation. Key factors of long-term slowdown in economic growth include the slowdown of technological development, aging population, human capital accumulation limits, high public debt, creative destruction process violation etc. The authors analyze key theoretical aspects of long-term stagnation and study the impact of these factors on Japanies economy. The authors conclude that most of the factors have significant influence on the Japanese economy for recent decades, but they cannot explain all dynamics. For Russia, on the contrary, we do not see any grounds for considering the decline in the economy since 2013 as an episode of secular stagnation.


Author(s):  
L.V. Vetchinnikova ◽  
◽  
A.F. Titov ◽  
◽  

The article reports on the application of the best known principles for mapping natural populations of curly (Karelian) birch Betula pendula Roth var. carelica (Mercklin) Hämet-Ahti – one of the most appealing representatives of the forest tree flora. Relying on the synthesis and analysis of the published data amassed over nearly 100 years and the data from own full-scale studies done in the past few decades almost throughout the area where curly birch has grown naturally, it is concluded that its range outlined in the middle of the 20th century and since then hardly revised is outdated. The key factors and reasons necessitating its revision are specified. Herewith it is suggested that the range is delineated using the population approach, and the key element will be the critical population size below which the population is no longer viable in the long term. This approach implies that the boundaries of the taxon range depend on the boundaries of local populations (rather than the locations of individual trees or small clumps of trees), the size of which should not be lower than the critical value, which is supposed to be around 100–500 trees for curly birch. A schematic map of the curly birch range delineated using this approach is provided. We specially address the problem of determining the minimum population size to secure genetic diversity maintenance. The advantages of the population approach to delineating the distribution range of curly birch with regard to its biological features are highlighted. The authors argue that it enables a more accurate delineation of the range; shows the natural evolutionary history of the taxon (although it is not yet officially recognized as a species) and its range; can be relatively easily updated (e.g. depending on the scope of reintroduction); should be taken into account when working on the strategy of conservation and other actions designed to maintain and regenerate this unique representative of the forest tree flora.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 315-328
Author(s):  
Sergey Aleksandrovich Mikhailov

This article deals with the issue of North-Eastern India, its current social and economic problems in the context of long-term demonstrations of the ethnic separatism. The main aim of the research implies systematic analysis and identification of key factors and reasons perpetuating separatism in NER as well as resource search which determines Indian strategy in solving this problem. The first part of the article is devoted to separatism peculiarities in the region which remains withdrawn and underexplored in many respects. Apart from this, the author provides a quite detailed analysis of negative mentality of the certain part of NER population which justifiably reproaches New Delhi for “discrimination” and inability to solve many problems of the region. Then the author paid the detailed attention to these problems of NER modern society (ethnic, demographic, economic, transport, social etc.) as well as measures undertaken by the Indian government for its settlement.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Michał Burzyński ◽  
Frédéric Docquier ◽  
Hendrik Scheewel

Abstract In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Nicholas B. Link ◽  
Karuna Lamarca ◽  
Mauricio Santillana

Abstract Background Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. Methods We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions. Results We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Andrew Hazelton ◽  
Ghassan J. Alaka ◽  
Levi Cowan ◽  
Michael Fischer ◽  
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan

The early stages of a tropical cyclone can be a challenge to forecast, as a storm consolidates and begins to grow based on the local and environmental conditions. A high-resolution ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is used to study the early intensification of Hurricane Dorian, a catastrophic 2019 storm in which the early period proved challenging for forecasters. There was a clear connection in the ensemble between early storm track and intensity: stronger members moved more northeast initially, although this result did not have much impact on the long-term track. The ensemble results show several key factors determining the early evolution of Dorian. Large-scale divergence northeast of the tropical cyclone (TC) appeared to favor intensification, and this structure was present at model initialization. There was also greater moisture northeast of the TC for stronger members at initialization, favoring more intensification and downshear development of the circulation as these members evolved. This study highlights the complex interplay between synoptic and storm scale processes in the development and intensification of early-stage tropical cyclones.


2022 ◽  
Vol 805 ◽  
pp. 149778
Author(s):  
André-Marie Dendievel ◽  
Cécile Grosbois ◽  
Sophie Ayrault ◽  
Olivier Evrard ◽  
Alexandra Coynel ◽  
...  

1995 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond T. Coward ◽  
Tiffany L. Hogan ◽  
R. Paul Duncan ◽  
Claydell H. Horne ◽  
Mary Anne Hilker ◽  
...  

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