scholarly journals Reproducing country-wide COVID-19 dynamics can require the usage of a set of SIR systems

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10679
Author(s):  
Eugene B. Postnikov
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Processing Data ◽  
Cumulative Amount

This work shows that simple compartmental epidemiological models may not reproduce actually reported country-wide statistics since the latter reflects the cumulative amount of infected persons, which in fact is a sum of outbreaks within different patched. It the same time, the multilogistic decomposition of such epidemiological curves reveals components, which are quite close to the solutions of the SIR model in logistic approximations characterised by different sets of parameters including time shifts. This line of reasoning is confirmed by processing data for Spain and Russia in details and, additionally, is illustrated for several other countries.

scholarly journals Calibrating an SIR model for South Korea COVID-19 infections and predicting vaccination impact

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Pae
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Policy Decisions

In the span of 1.5 years, COVID-19 has caused more than 4 million deaths worldwide. To prevent such a catastrophe from reoccurring, it is necessary to test and refine current epidemiological models that impact policy decisions. Thus, we developed a deterministic SIR model to examine the long-term transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Korea. Using this model, we analyzed how vaccines would affect the number of cases. We found that a 70% vaccination coverage with a 100% effective vaccine would effectively eliminate the number of cases and herd immunity would have been obtained approximately 85 days after February 15 had there not been a reintroduction of cases.

scholarly journals The SIR and SEIR Epidemiological Models Revisited

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P. Maassen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulations ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing

We review and assess the classic SIR and SEIR epidemiological models regarding possible applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. In spite of numerous more complicated models, we show how the qualitative features of the solution to the SIR and SEIR models continue to provide valuable public health insights in some scenarios. Using estimated COVID-19 data as of this date, the SEIR model shows that if it were possible to reduce R0 from 2.5 to 1.25 through social distancing and other measures, the maximum fraction of the population that would become infected at any particular time would drop from 17% to 4%, provided that all of the model assumptions are satisfied. Finally, we compare the classic SIR model with a recent stochastic model with favorable results. Since this comparison underscores the importance of underlying connectivity assumptions, we conclude with Monte-Carlo simulations with specific connectivity that reproduce the classical SIR model with standard incidence.

scholarly journals Predicting the propagation of COVID-19 at an international scale: extension of an SIR model

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e041472
Author(s):  
Marc Lavielle ◽  
Matthieu Faron ◽  
Jérémie H Lefevre ◽  
Jean-David Zeitoun
Keyword(s):  
Web Application ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Early Performance ◽  
High Level ◽  
Novel Model

ObjectivesSeveral epidemiological models have been published to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, yet many of them have proven inaccurate for reasons that remain to be fully determined. We aimed to develop a novel model and implement it in a freely accessible web application.DesignWe built an SIR-type compartmental model with two additional compartments: D (deceased patients); L (individuals who will die but who will not infect anybody due to social or medical isolation) and integration of a time-dependent transmission rate and a periodical weekly component linked to the way in which cases and deaths are reported.ResultsThe model was implemented in a web application (as of 2 June 2020). It was shown to be able to accurately capture the changes in the dynamics of the pandemic for 20 countries whatever the type of pandemic spread or containment measures: for instance, the model explains 97% of the variance of US data (daily cases) and predicts the number of deaths at a 2-week horizon with an error of 1%.ConclusionsIn early performance evaluation, our model showed a high level of accuracy between prediction and observed data. Such a tool might be used by the global community to follow the spread of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Evaluating Short-term Forecast among Different Epidemiological Models under a Bayesian Framework

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiwei Li ◽  
Tejasv Bedi ◽  
Guanghua Xiao ◽  
Yang Xie
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Bayesian Framework ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Term Forecast

AbstractForecasting of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases has been one of the several challenges posed on the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decisions, the concerned parties rely on short-term daily projections generated via predictive modeling. We calibrate stochastic variants of growth models and the standard SIR model into one Bayesian framework to evaluate their short-term forecasts. In summary, it was noted that none of the models proved to be golden standards across all the regions in their entirety, while all outperformed ARIMA in a predictive capacity as well as in terms of interpretability.

Calibrating an SIR model for South Korea COVID-19 infections and predicting vaccination impact (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon Pae
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Policy Decisions

UNSTRUCTURED In the span of 1.5 years, COVID-19 has caused more than 4 million deaths worldwide. To prevent such a catastrophe from reoccurring, it is necessary to test and refine current epidemiological models that impact policy decisions. Thus, we developed a deterministic SIR model to examine the long-term transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Korea. Using this model, we analyzed how vaccines would affect the number of cases. We found that a 70% vaccination coverage with a 100% effective vaccine would effectively eliminate the number of cases and herd immunity would have been obtained approximately 85 days after February 15 had there not been a reintroduction of cases.

scholarly journals Inference on COVID-19 Epidemiological Parameters Using Bayesian Survival Analysis

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (10) ◽  
pp. 1262
Author(s):  
Chiara Bardelli
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Age Factor ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

The need to provide accurate predictions in the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has motivated the development of different epidemiological models. These models require a careful calibration of their parameters to capture the dynamics of the phenomena and the uncertainty in the data. This work analyzes different parameters related to the personal evolution of COVID-19 (i.e., time of recovery, length of stay in hospital and delay in hospitalization). A Bayesian Survival Analysis is performed considering the age factor and period of the epidemic as fixed predictors to understand how these features influence the evolution of the epidemic. These results can be easily included in the epidemiological SIR model to make prediction results more stable.

Processing of Histopathological Data

1971 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 142-147
Author(s):  
M. RENAUD ◽  
M. AQARQ ◽  
R. GERARD-MARCHANT ◽  
M. WOLFF-TERROINE
Keyword(s):  
Integrated System ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Identification Number ◽  
Processing Data ◽  
Cancer Hospital

A method is presented for processing data from the histopathological laboratory of a cancer hospital. Emphasis is laid on the ease of use, the connection of medical, administrative and financial data, and the strictness of control of patient’s identification number. The system can be used separately; it is also a module for a large integrated system covering all the activities of the hospital.

Natural Language and a Computer System in Medical Research*)

1979 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 15-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ileana C. Johnson ◽  
S. L. Tsao ◽  
I. D. J. Bross ◽  
D. P. Shedd
Keyword(s):  
Head And Neck Cancer ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Roswell Park Memorial Institute ◽  
Basic Form ◽  
Specialized Knowledge ◽  
Complete Control ◽  
Processing Data ◽  
Remote Terminal ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Cancer Project

A series of computer programs are now available for processing data whose basic form is narrative (natural language), numerical or a combination of the two. This system was developed in the Department of Biostatistics of Roswell Park Memorial Institute, to enable an investigator to have complete control of the data — from the initial stage of entering the data to the final stage of analysis. Specialized knowledge of computers is not necessary in order to implement the different procedures. By following the instructions specified in various manuals and by basically just pushing a button of a remote terminal the procedures are activated and executed. This system is actually used for maintaining the data of a head and neck cancer project.

Power Query: The formation of professional competencies of a business analyst

2020 ◽  
pp. 30-40
Author(s):  
D. M. Nazarov ◽  
A. D. Nazarov
Keyword(s):  
Professional Standards ◽  
Professional Competencies ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Key Technology ◽  
Educational Standard ◽  
Training Methodology ◽  
Processing Data ◽  
Business Analyst ◽  
Business Informatics ◽  
State Educational

The article is a description of the Power Query technology training methodology implemented within the framework of the Federal State Educational Standard for Higher Education 3++ taking into account professional standards in the direction of the bachelor’s program “Business Informatics”. The authors propose a set of laboratory works in the form of situational tasks and cases that allow to create professional competencies and labor functions of a future specialist (business analyst) as part of the development of the ETL process for processing data using Power Query technology. The use of situational tasks and cases allows to effectively implement the development of a set of professional competencies, which are elements of generalized labor functions, without tying the material in question specifically to any discipline. As part of the implementation of situational tasks and cases described in the article, bachelors not only learn to use the basic elements of Power Query technology, but also gain the skills and abilities associated with the application of the studied technology in performing standard professional tasks stipulated by a professional standard. The format for describing the methodology is presented in the form of the traditional “Key-by-Key” technology, widely used in obtaining professional IT competencies.

PENERAPAN METODE WATERFALL PADA SISTEM INFORMASI MANAJEMEN BUKU PERPUSTAKAAN BERBASIS WEB

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Yuni Eka Achyani ◽  
Sela Saumi
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Information System ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Management Information Systems ◽  
Conventional System ◽  
Management Information ◽  
Computer Data ◽  
Processing Data ◽  
Library Book ◽  
Advanced Information Technology

The development of increasingly advanced information technology can provide many benefits for completing work quickly and accurately. One example that requires the delivery of information quickly and accurately is the field of library, this is in accordance with the function of the library which is the heart of education. Most libraries are still many who adhere to a conventional system, of course this will result in disruption of the continuity of the process of managing books in the library. Therefore, the author takes the theme of this study regarding Library Book Management Information Systems Based on Websites by using the waterfall method on software development as well as methods of observation and literature on data collection. This Information System is the best solution for problem solving in managing library books. With the use of managed computer data technology becomes faster, reducing inefficient time and reducing the occurrence of errors in processing data.

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