scholarly journals CoViD-19: an automatic, semiparametric estimation method for the population infected in Italy

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e10819
Author(s):  
Livio Fenga
Keyword(s):  
Representative Sample ◽  
Semiparametric Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Reliable Estimation ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
The Future ◽  
Official Data

To date, official data on the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2—responsible for the Covid-19—have been released by the Italian Government just on the basis of a non-representative sample of population which tested positive for the swab. However a reliable estimation of the number of infected, including asymptomatic people, turns out to be crucial in the preparation of operational schemes and to estimate the future number of people, who will require, to different extents, medical attentions. In order to overcome the current data shortcoming, this article proposes a bootstrap-driven, estimation procedure for the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2. This method is designed to be robust, automatic and suitable to generate estimations at regional level. Obtained results show that, while official data at March the 12th report 12.839 cases in Italy, people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 could be as high as 105.789.

scholarly journals CoViD–19: An Automatic, Semiparametric Estimation Method for the Population Infected in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livio Fenga
Keyword(s):  
Representative Sample ◽  
Semiparametric Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Reliable Estimation ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
The Future ◽  
Official Data

AbstractTo date, official data on the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 - responsible for the CoViD–19 - have been released by the Italian Government just on the basis of a non representative sample of population which tested positive for the swab. However a reliable estimation of the number of infected, including asymptomatic people, turns out to be crucial in the preparation of operational schemes and to estimate the future number of people, who will require, to different extents, medical attentions. In order to overcome the current data shortcoming, this paper proposes a bootstrap–driven, estimation procedure for the number of people infected with the SARS-CoV-2. This method is designed to be robust, automatic and suitable to generate estimations at regional level. Obtained results show that, while official data at March the 12th report 12.839 cases in Italy, people infected wiyh the SARS-CoV-2 could be as high as 105.789.

scholarly journals SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF RANDOM COEFFICIENTS IN STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC MODELS

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 1265-1305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hoderlein ◽  
Lars Nesheim ◽  
Anna Simoni
Keyword(s):  
General Framework ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Asymptotic Properties ◽  
Semiparametric Estimation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Random Coefficients ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiments

This paper discusses nonparametric estimation of the distribution of random coefficients in a structural model that is nonlinear in the random coefficients. We establish that the problem of recovering the probability density function (pdf) of random parameters falls into the class of convexly-constrained inverse problems. The framework offers an estimation method that separates computational solution of the structural model from estimation. We first discuss nonparametric identification. Then, we propose two alternative estimation procedures to estimate the density and derive their asymptotic properties. Our general framework allows us to deal with unobservable nuisance variables, e.g., measurement error, but also covers the case when there are no such nuisance variables. Finally, Monte Carlo experiments for several structural models are provided which illustrate the performance of our estimation procedure.

ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTIVATOR OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 27-34
Author(s):  
Liana E. Kabisova ◽  
◽  
Noemi A. Mardeyan ◽  
Zarina E. Tarkhanova ◽  
Batraz E. Bagaev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Direction Vector ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Future ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency

The article identifies the key factors influencing the activity of the socio-economic development of the region. The dynamics of this factor is analyzed. The indicator is investigated for the sufficiency and validity of the application, as well as for the effectiveness and efficiency with the designation of the direction vector, forecast, assessment for the future use of this leverage, to improve the economic situation at the regional level.

Estimation of the Shape Evolution and the Growth History of an Embedded Crack by Fatigue Loading

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koji Gotoh ◽  
Keisuke Harada ◽  
Yosuke Anai
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Fatigue Crack Growth ◽  
Crack Growth ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Fatigue Loading ◽  
Shape Evolution ◽  
Crack Growth Behaviour ◽  
Embedded Crack

Fatigue life estimation for planar cracks, e.g. part-through surface cracks or embedded cracks is very important because most of fatigue cracks found in welded built-up structures show planar crack morphologies. Fatigue crack growth behaviour of an embedded crack in welded joints is investigated in this study. The estimation procedure of crack shape evolution for an embedded crack is introduced and validation of the estimation procedure of fatigue crack growth based on the numerical simulation of fatigue crack growth with EDS concept for an embedded crack is performed. The validity of the proposed shape evolution estimation method and the fatigue crack growth simulation based on the fracture mechanics approach with EDS concept are confirmed.

scholarly journals Combination Therapy in Moderate to Severe Alzheimer’s Disease - Overview and Discussion Points for the Future

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
José L Molinuevo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Combination Therapy ◽  
Receptor Antagonist ◽  
Cholinesterase Inhibitors ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Aspartate Receptor ◽  
The Future

Two effective symptomatic therapies are available for Alzheimer’s disease: the cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) and memantine, an N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist. Current data demonstrate that combination therapy with memantine and a ChEI produces symptomatic benefits in all domains of AD. The benefits of combination therapy are greater than those of ChEI monotherapy, are sustained long term and appear to increase with time.

scholarly journals Fiscal deficits and executive planning horizons

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Seiferling
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Executive Control ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
The Future ◽  
Fiscal Behavior ◽  
Planning Horizons

AbstractExecutive control of government is generally not a long-term job. In such cases, relatively short executive tenure should be expected to play an important role in determining the degree to which policymakers internalize the future costs associated with their current fiscal behavior. The effects of policymaker's expected planning horizons on macroeconomic outcomes, however, have been difficult to model outside of a fixed term limit context due to the unobserved likelihood of remaining in office, along with potential endogeneity problems where re-election campaigns can be enhanced with generous, deficit-financed expenditures in election years. From a globally representative sample of 79 countries over a 32-year period (1980–2012), this paper provides empirical evidence suggesting that incumbent governments who know that will not be in office in the following period with a probability of one, are found to generate significantly higher deficits in a linear discounting model, and are found to produce the least responsible fiscal outcomes where the likelihood of re-election is around fifty percent in quadratic discounting models.

scholarly journals A Methodology for Reconstructing DSET Pulses from Heavy-Ion Broad-Beam Measurements

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Takahiro Makino ◽  
Shinobu Onoda ◽  
Takeshi Ohshima ◽  
Daisuke Kobayashi ◽  
Hirokazu Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulse Width ◽  
Ion Irradiation ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Heavy Ion ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Oxide Semiconductor ◽  
Single Event Transient ◽  
Flip Flop ◽  
Irradiation Test ◽  
Width Distribution

A table-based method for the estimation of heavy-ion-induced Digital Single Event Transient (DSET) voltage pulse-width in a single logic cell has been developed. The estimation method is based on the actual heavy-ion-induced transient current data in a single metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) used in the logic cell. The DSET pulse waveform in an inverter is obtained from which the pulse-width was estimated to be 420 ps. This DSET pulse-width value (420 ps) falls within the reasonable range of the DSET pulse-width distribution measured by the self-triggering flip-flop latch chain under heavy-ion irradiation test conditions.

scholarly journals Robust Regression with Density Power Divergence: Theory, Comparisons, and Data Analysis

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Riani ◽  
Anthony C. Atkinson ◽  
Aldo Corbellini ◽  
Domenico Perrotta
Keyword(s):  
Robust Regression ◽  
Robust Statistics ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Breakdown Point ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Normal Density ◽  
Density Power Divergence ◽  
Numerical Minimization ◽  
Power Divergence

Minimum density power divergence estimation provides a general framework for robust statistics, depending on a parameter α , which determines the robustness properties of the method. The usual estimation method is numerical minimization of the power divergence. The paper considers the special case of linear regression. We developed an alternative estimation procedure using the methods of S-estimation. The rho function so obtained is proportional to one minus a suitably scaled normal density raised to the power α . We used the theory of S-estimation to determine the asymptotic efficiency and breakdown point for this new form of S-estimation. Two sets of comparisons were made. In one, S power divergence is compared with other S-estimators using four distinct rho functions. Plots of efficiency against breakdown point show that the properties of S power divergence are close to those of Tukey’s biweight. The second set of comparisons is between S power divergence estimation and numerical minimization. Monitoring these two procedures in terms of breakdown point shows that the numerical minimization yields a procedure with larger robust residuals and a lower empirical breakdown point, thus providing an estimate of α leading to more efficient parameter estimates.

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