scholarly journals A VECM Analysis of the Relations the CPI, PPI, GDP Per Capita, Exchange Rate in the Republic of Azerbaijan

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-46
Author(s):  
Revana I. Davudova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
National Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic

Aims:  The study focuses on an empirical analysis of a macroeconomic indicators system,  that reflect the level and pace of a country's socio-economic development, such as CPI, PPI, GDP per capita, exchange rate, taking into account the consequences of the COVID19 pandemic and oil prices  on the example Republic of Azerbaijan. Study Design:  The study consists of four sections. It includes Introduction, Literature Review, Methodology, Results and Discussion and Conclusion. Place and Duration of Study: The study was conducted for 4 months of 2020 in the department of "Mathematical support of economic research" of the Institute of Economics of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences. Methodology: Within the dynamic VEC model, taking into account the COVID19 pandemic and oil prices, the long-run and short-run effects of macro indicators system on each other were studied by means of causality, impulse responses and variance decomposition on the monthly statistics covering the period 2015M01-2020M07 for the Republic of Azerbaijan. Results: Calculations based on the established stable VEC (5) model revealed that there is a long-term causal relationship from the triad (CPI, PPI, Ex_Rate) to all endogenous variables. There are a short-term bi-directional causal relationship between CPI and GDP_Per_Capita and between PPI and Ex_Rate. From PPI and Ex_Rate to GDP_Per_Capita; from Ex_Rate to CPI, there are a unidirectional short-term causal relationship. Conclusion: Summarizing the results, we can write the following long-term expressions: the change   a) in the GDP_per_Cap is influenced by the PPI and CPI variables negatively, and Ex_Rate – positively; b) in the CPI is influenced by the GDP_per_Cap and PPI variables negatively, and Ex_Rate – positively; c) in the PPI is influenced by the Ex_Rate and CPI variables negatively, and GDP_per_Cap – positively, so that the negative influence of the CPI is greater; d) in the Ex_Rate is influenced by the PPI and CPI variables negatively, and GDP_per_Cap – positively. Has been also identified that the indicator PPI has a more negative effect on changes in GDP_per_Cap, CPI and Ex_Rate.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM IN GEORGIA AS AN INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF THE COUNTRY

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-289
Author(s):  
L.V. Detochenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Transport Component ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic

The role and place of the tourism industry in the economic complex of Georgia are considered; the conclusion is made about the “tourist miracle” taking place in the country, which is a factor of the economic growth of the republic. The differences between the concepts of “foreign visitors” and “foreign tourists” are presented. The increase in the contribution of the tourism industry and related industries involved in the tourism industry in the creation of the gross domestic product of the country, its impact on the growth of the Georgian budget and GDP per capita, the average monthly wage is shown. The conclusion about the need to increase the share of medium and long-term tourists among foreign visitors and tourists in the country is justified. The problems of the return of tourists, the long-term stay in Georgia, the differences of the countries-generators of tourist flows by these indicators have been studied. The changes in work and the prospects of various types of transport for the delivery of tourists to Georgia are analyzed, the measures to improve the tourist transport component are proposed. The correlation between the number of tourist arrivals and the average cost of tourists visiting Georgia from different countries is shown and the economic profitability of attracting Russian tourists, capable of filling all the tourist destinations of the country, contributing to the “tourist miracle” of Georgia is considered.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

scholarly journals The effect of macro factors on bank credit activity in the Republic of Serbia

Skola biznisa ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 39-54
Author(s):  
Dejan Živkov ◽  
Simo Poparić ◽  
Miloš Ilić
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Civil Sector

This paper investigates whether and how key macro-fundamentals in Serbia affect the volumes of issued loans of Erste bank to public and business sector in Serbia. We made an effort to determine which particular macro factor has the highest influence on issued credits of Erste bank, and to measure the exact average magnitude of these influences. The main idea is to find out how GDP, inflation, central bank referent interest rate, exchange rate changes and Euribor affect short-term and long-term credit activity of Erste bank in Serbia. The computations are done by applying several multivariate regression models in which dependant variables are the volume of issued credits towards civil sector and enterprises. Based on the results, we can report that Euribor is the most important factor of all scrutinized macro-aggregates, since it affects most of the analysed bank loans. Besides Euribor, we find that other macro fundamentals influence the issued loans only sporadically. In other words, the level of GDP and inflation affect only long-term loans for businesses, while referent interest rate influences only short-term loans for public. We find that exchange rate changes have no effect on any loan of Erste bank, whatsoever, which clearly indicates that the bank protects itself very successfully against this type of macro risk.

scholarly journals Economic policy and security of Australia in the short term until 2025

2015 ◽  
pp. 137-147
Author(s):  
Mieczysław Sprengel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
21St Century ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Economic Future

According to the predictions, the scale and rate of economic processes that are aboutto come in the next decades of the 21st century will be substantial. A further growth ofAustralia’s importance is to be expected in the long term. The whole region of Asia, including Australia, has become interesting for politicians, entrepreneurs and researchers.In the 21st century, Australia has grown to be a significant player in the global economicpolicy. It seems that the economic future of the world will depend on the developmentof the countries in Asia. The economic situation in Australia will arguably change assome countries in that region have reached a satisfactory level of production and sharein their developed economy. Economic presumptions delineate an optimistic view ofthe income’s growth in the next decade in Australia. The statistics published by reliableboth national and international institutions are helpful in unraveling economic issues,which allow to portray the bright future of Australia until 2025. It seems that the regionaleconomic development will lead to a significant economic revival. The following issuesconcerning the economic policy and its results have been chosen in order to conductan analysis: GDP per capita, economic growth, demography, the input of nations andregions in the world’s production and the contribution of Australia in the world’s trade.The substantial number of inhabitants (over a half of the globe’s population) in this region is at the same time a serious proportion of consumers. The ongoing transformationin the life of those countries is the effect of education, communication and technologydevelopment. Thereupon, due to the economic and social development of the region,Australia will become its beneficiary and solidify its economic position.

scholarly journals VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP INDEKS SAHAM SYARIAH INDONESIA (PERIODE MEI 2011-SEPTEMBER 2015 DENGAN MODEL ECM)

Media Trend ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Yudhistira Ardana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate

<em>This study aimed to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on Indonesian Islamic stock index. Macroeconomic variables used is the interest rate of Bank Indonesia (BI-rate), inflation, exchange rate, Bank Indonesia Certificates Sharia (SBIS) and world oil prices. The data used in this research is secondary data during the period May 2011 until September 2015 using a model error correction model (ECM) where the end result is going to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables on Indonesian Sharia Stock Index in the short term and long term.</em>

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERMINTAAN DEPOSITO DALAM VALUTA ASING PADA BANK SWASTA NASIONAL DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Siti Fatimah Nurhayati ◽  
Kurniawati Niladewi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Test Result

High demand for foreign currency deposit is the background of this research with purpose to analyze influence Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, Rupiah deposit interest rate, exchange rate Rupiah to America Dollar, and London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) international interest rate for deposit demand in foreign currency in National Private Bank in Indonesia. To analyze that influence quadratic linear regression analysis used with Partial Adjustment Methods (PAM). From classic assumption test, there's no multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. From statistical test resulted (test-t) that foreign currency savings from previous period, Rupiah deposit interest rate and LIBOR international interest rate have effect to deposit demand in foreign currency, with different validity rate such as: a = 1%, a ~ 5% and a = 10%, meanwhile GDP per capita and exchange rate have no affect to deposit demand in foreign currency. F-Test result that with validity level 99%, independent variables concurrently have effect to dependent variable. R2 result shows that 98% variance foreign currency deposit effect can be explained by variance in model, the other 2% explained by other variable excluded from applied model. However, long term adjustment value (d) amount

scholarly journals Fiscal policy and oil factor: Evaluation of the effects in global economic development

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 07023
Author(s):  
Tapdig Guluzada ◽  
Esmira Guluzada
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Research background: Today, the acceptance of fiscal policy decisions necessitates the analysis of policy efficiency with the help of optimization issues, the study of cause-and-effect relationships between budget expenditures and macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, revenues, and the evaluation of a number of econometric models among all. The need for these areas makes it important to study and analyze the effects of fiscal policy on the economy, which allows to justify the relevance of the topic of the article. Purpose of the article: The article is devoted to the assessment of the fiscal and economic consequences of changes in oil prices in the world market, as well as the study of the relationship between state budget revenues and government expenditure in Azerbaijan. It was revealed that a 1% increase in oil prices, in the long run, increased Azerbaijan’s GDP by 0.52% and state budget expenditures by 0.88%. The calculations allow to conclude that there is a high correlation between government spending and state budget revenues in Azerbaijan. The obtained result indicates a positive relationship between the aforementioned economic variables. Methods: The most common method of analyzing the possible causal relationship between macroeconomic indicators is the causality test proposed by Granger in 1969. However, from a methodological point of view, the application of this test to study the causal relationship between economic indicators requires these indicators to be stationary. This statistical feature can be violated in the case of the economic indicator having the single root elements. To do this, we tested the Unit root problem of the variable using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Simultaneously, a number of other important features of the evaluated models were tested and the adequacy of the models was confirmed. Findings & Value added: As a result of the research, it was determined that there is a short-term and long-term causal relationship between world oil prices and Azerbaijan’s GDP and state budget expenditures. According to the results, a 1 percent increase in oil prices leads to the increase of the current level of GDP growth in Azerbaijan by 0.20 percent in the short term, and by 0.52 percent in the long term. Parallelly, it was revealed that a 1 percent increase in world oil prices leads to a 0.88 percent increase in Azerbaijan’s state budget expenditures in the long run. The correlation between Azerbaijan’s government expenditures and state budget revenues was analyzed, and a high correlation between these two macroeconomic indicators was identified.

scholarly journals The Importance of Capital Controls in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 215 ◽  
pp. 32-46
Author(s):  
Vu Tam Bang
Keyword(s):  
Capital Controls ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Short Term Investment ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper provides a simple theoretical framework on the restriction of short-term investments such as stocks, bonds, and other indirect investments while encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI) as a long-term investment. The theoretical results show that a developing country like Vietnam should maintain certain level of capital controls on short-term investments. The paper then provides an empirical study of the five ASEAN countries that are either in the negotiating process or willing to join the Trans-Pacific Economic Partnership with an emphasis on Vietnam. The empirical results show that FDI has positive effect on GDP per capita in these five countries as a group and as individual economies. In contrast, short-term investment has negative effect on GDP per capita in four economies with Singapore as the only exception.

The Reproduction Vector of the Russian Economy: 1999-2007

2008 ◽  
pp. 94-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Sorokin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Developed Countries

The problem of the Russian economy’s growth rates is considered in the article in the context of Russia’s backwardness regarding GDP per capita in comparison with the developed countries. The author stresses the urgency of modernization of the real sector of the economy and the recovery of the country’s human capital. For reaching these goals short- or mid-term programs are not sufficient. Economic policy needs a long-term (15-20 years) strategy, otherwise Russia will be condemned to economic inertia and multiplying structural disproportions.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

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