scholarly journals FUTURE CLIMATE EXPERIMENTS ON INTENSITY AND STORM SURGE OF TYPHOON SANBA (2012)

2018 ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Masaya Toyoda ◽  
Jun Yoshino ◽  
Tomonao Kobayashi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Typhoon Intensity ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The recent progress of the global warming raise concerns the future changes of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone) and their associated coastal disasters. It is thought that the increases of both the sea surface temperature and ocean heat contents by the global warming could increase the intensity of future tropical cyclones. As a method of quantitative assessment for the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones and their storm surges, “pseudo-global warming downscaling” is generally adopted using a regional climate model and a storm surge model (Takayabu et al., 2015). Estimating the differences of experiments between present and future climate, we can quantify the future changes of typhoon intensity and storm surge by the global warming. Using the high-resolution typhoon model, we carry out a present climate experiment and pseudo-global warming experiments on typhoon intensity and its storm surge of Typhoon Sanba (2012) in this study. Sanba went northward on the west coast of Kyushu Island and caused a storm surge in Ariake Sea, Japan. Sanba had a minimum central pressure of 900 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 55 m/s. The observed maximum sea level anomaly was 104 cm at Oura, Saga Prefecture. To evaluate the impacts of global warming differences (GWDs) on typhoon intensity and storm surge, sensitivity experiments on different months (August, September, and October) in future typhoon season are also made.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

scholarly journals Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0 °C Global Warming on Water Balance Components over Senegal in West Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Mamadou Lamine Mbaye ◽  
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla ◽  
Moustapha Tall
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
The Future ◽  
Annual Water

This study assesses the changes in precipitation (P) and in evapotranspiration (ET) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming levels (GWLs) over Senegal in West Africa. A set of twenty Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario is used. Annual and seasonal changes are computed between climate simulations under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, with respect to 0.5 °C warming, compared to pre-industrial levels. The results show that annual precipitation is likely to decrease under both magnitudes of warming; this decrease is also found during the main rainy season (July, August, September) only and is more pronounced under 2 °C warming. All reference evapotranspiration calculations, from Penman, Hamon, and Hargreaves formulations, show an increase in the future under the two GWLs, except annual Penman evapotranspiration under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. Furthermore, seasonal and annual water balances (P-ET) generally exhibit a water deficit. This water deficit (up to 180 mm) is more substantial with Penman and Hamon under 2 °C. In addition, analyses of changes in extreme precipitation reveal an increase in dry spells and a decrease in the number of wet days. However, Senegal may face a slight increase in very wet days (95th percentile), extremely wet days (99th), and rainfall intensity in the coming decades. Therefore, in the future, Senegal may experience a decline in precipitation, an increase of evapotranspiration, and a slight increase in heavy rainfall. Such changes could have serious consequences (e.g., drought, flood, etc.) for socioeconomic activities. Thus, strong governmental politics are needed to restrict the global mean temperature to avoid irreversible negative climate change impacts over the country. The findings of this study have contributed to a better understanding of local patterns of the Senegal hydroclimate under the two considered global warming scenarios.

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

Tropical cyclone eyewall thunderstorms as a driver of upper tropospheric water vapor increases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Price ◽  
Tair Plotnik ◽  
Anirban Guha ◽  
Joydeb Saha`
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Lightning Activity ◽  
Maximum Enhancement ◽  
The Earth ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Tropical cyclones have been observed in recent years to be increasing in intensity due to global warming, and projections for the future are for further shifts to stronger tropical cyclones, while the changes in the number of storms is less certain in the future.  These storms have been shown to exhibit strong lightning activity in the eyewall and rainbands, and some studies (Price et al., 2009) showed that the lightning activity peaks before the maximum intensity of the tropical cyclones.  Now we have investigated the impact of these tropical storms on the upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) content.  Using the ERA5 reanalysis product from the ECMWF center, together with lightning data from the ENTLN network, we show that the lightning activity in tropical cyclones is closely linked to the increase in UTWV above these storms.  We find the maximum enhancement in UTWV occurs between the 100-300 mb pressure levels, with a lag of 0-2 days after the peak of the storm intensity (measured by the maximum sustained winds in the eyewall).  The lightning activity peaks before the storm reaches its maximum intensity, as found in previous studies.  The interest in UTWV concentrations is due to the strong positive feedback that exists between the amounts of UTWV and surface global warming.  Water Vapor is a strong greenhouse gas which is most efficient in trapping in longwave radiation emitted from the Earth in the upper troposphere.  Small changes in UTWV over time can result in strong surface warming.  If tropical cyclones increase in intensity in the future, this will likely result in increases in UTWV, reducing the natural cooling ability of the Earth.  Lightning may be a useful tool to monitor these changes.</p>

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclones in the UPSCALE Ensemble of High-Resolution Global Climate Models*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 574-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Matthew S. Mizielinski ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Reinhard Schiemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The U.K. on Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE) Weather-Resolving Simulations of Climate for Global Environmental Risk (UPSCALE) project, using PRACE resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3 (GA3) configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km), and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high-impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African easterly waves and the African easterly jet. However, the intensity of the modeled tropical cyclones as measured by 10-m wind speed remains weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more strong storms.

scholarly journals Simulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: case study of Pingyang County, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2777-2790
Author(s):  
Xianwu Shi ◽  
Pubing Yu ◽  
Zhixing Guo ◽  
Zhilin Sun ◽  
Fuyuan Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Typhoon Intensity ◽  
Typhoon Tracks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. China is one of the countries that is most seriously affected by storm surges. In recent years, storm surges in coastal areas of China have caused huge economic losses and a large number of human casualties. Knowledge of the inundation range and water depth of storm surges under different typhoon intensities could assist predisaster risk assessment and making evacuation plans, as well as provide decision support for responding to storm surges. Taking Pingyang County in Zhejiang Province as a case study area, parameters including typhoon tracks, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream flood runoff were determined for different typhoon intensities. Numerical simulations were conducted using these parameters to investigate the inundation range and water depth distribution of storm surges in Pingyang County considering the impact of seawall collapse under five different intensity scenarios (corresponding to minimum central pressure values equal to 915, 925, 935, 945, and 965 hPa). The inundated area ranged from 103.51 to 233.16 km2 for the most intense typhoon. The proposed method could be easily adopted in various coastal counties and serves as an effective tool for decision-making in storm surge disaster risk reduction practices.

Different approaches of finding European climate analogue regions for the Steigerwald forest (Germany) in the future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrin Ziegler ◽  
Felix Pohl ◽  
Felix Pollinger ◽  
Heiko Paeth
Keyword(s):  
Tree Species ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Preparation Methods ◽  
European Climate ◽  
Forest Region ◽  
The Future

<p>Adapting the impacts of climate change is a great challenge. To facilitate forest adaptation long-term and forward-looking decisions must be made today since they have to be valid for several decades. Therefore, fundamental knowledge of the future climate and of tree species which are more resilient to the future climate than trees growing in the forests today is necessary.</p><p>To give local foresters a basis for their decisions, we use the so-called analogue region method. With this method we aim to find regions in Europe which currently have the same climate as it is projected in a specific reference region for different future scenarios. For the projections, the model runs of the regional climate model REMO are used. As an example of finding analogue regions, we selected the forest region Steigerwald in North Bavaria. We use different climatic and forest specific indices and data preparation methods to test the influence of varying indices and methods on the resulting regions. After identifying the respective analogue regions, we analyze which tree species are growing currently in these regions by using the EU-Forest data set.</p>

Compound impact of rainfall, tidal level and storm surge on flood risk from tropical cyclones in the coastal area of shanghai

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanqing Xu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Tidal Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

<p>Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme tropical cyclones has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms surge. In coastal areas, floods caused by rainstorms and storm surges have been one of the most costly and devastating natural hazards in coastal regions. Extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. Usually, extreme events such as tidal level, storm surges, precipitation occur jointly, leading to compound flood events with significantly higher hazards compared to the sum of the single extreme events. The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of multiple drivers to compound flooding in shanghai. The Wind Enhance Scheme (WES) model characterized by Holland model is devised to generate wind "spiderweb" both for historical (1949-2018) and future (2031-2060, 2069-2098) tropical cyclones. The tidal level and storm surge model based on Delft3D-FLOW is employed with an unstructured grid to simulate the change of water level. For precipitation, maximum value between tropical cyclone events is selected. Following this, multivariate Copula model would be employed to compare the change of joint probability between tidal level, storm surge and heavy precipitation under climate change, taking into account sea-level rise and land subsidence. Finally, the impact of tropical cyclone on the joint risk of tidal, storm surge and heavy precipitation is investigated. </p>

scholarly journals Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Woo Lee ◽  
Suryun Ham ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Kei Yoshimura ◽  
Minsu Joh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

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