scholarly journals Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty of Heat Wave Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 301-310
Author(s):  
Jiyu Seo ◽  
Jeongeun Won ◽  
Jeonghyeon Choi ◽  
Okjeong Lee ◽  
Sangdan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Energy Management ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Return Periods

Due to global warming, there is an increasing concern regarding persistent and severe heat waves. The maximum daily surface air temperature observations show strong non-stationary features, and the increased intensity and persistence of heat wave events have been observed in many regions. The heat wave persistence day frequency (HPF) curve, which correlates the intensity of a heat wave persistence event for days with return periods, can be a useful tool to analyze the frequency of heat wave events. In this study, non-stationary HPF curves are developed to explain the trend in the increase of the surface air temperature due to climate change, and their uncertainty is analyzed. The non-stationary HPF model can be used in climate change adaptation management such as public health, public safety, and energy management.

Can climate adaptation solutions fix the urban heat island? An assessment of the thermal conditions during heat waves in Vienna impacted by climate change and urban development scenarios for the mid-21st-century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hamer ◽  
Heidelinde Trimmel ◽  
Philipp Weihs ◽  
Stéphanie Faroux ◽  
Herbert Formayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Heat Island ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Human Thermal Comfort ◽  
Urban Heat

<p>Climate change threatens to exacerbate existing problems in urban areas arising from the urban heat island. Furthermore, expansion of urban areas and rising urban populations will increase the numbers of people exposed to hazards in these vulnerable areas. We therefore urgently need study of these environments and in-depth assessment of potential climate adaptation measures.</p><p>We present a study of heat wave impacts across the urban landscape of Vienna for different future development pathways and for both present and future climatic conditions. We have created two different urban development scenarios that estimate potential urban sprawl and optimized development concerning future building construction in Vienna and have built a digital representation of each within the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface model. In addition, we select two heat waves of similar frequency of return representative for present and future conditions (following the RCP8.5 scenario) of the mid 21<sup>st</sup> century and use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate both heat wave events. We then couple the two representations urban Vienna in TEB with the WRF heat wave simulations to estimate air temperature, surface temperatures and human thermal comfort during the heat waves. We then identify and apply a set of adaptation measures within TEB to try to identify potential solutions to the problems associated with the urban heat island.</p><p>Global and regional climate change under the RCP8.5 scenario causes the future heat wave to be more severe showing an increase of daily maximum air temperature in Vienna by 7 K; the daily minimum air temperature will increase by 2-4 K. We find that changes caused by urban growth or densification mainly affect air temperature and human thermal comfort local to where new urbanisation takes place and does not occur significantly in the existing central districts.</p><p>Exploring adaptation solutions, we find that a combination of near zero-energy standards and increasing albedo of building materials on the city scale accomplishes a maximum reduction of urban canyon temperature of 0.9 K for the minima and 0.2 K for the maxima. Local scale changes of different adaption measures show that insulation of buildings alone increases the maximum wall surface temperatures by more than 10 K or the maximum mean radiant temperature (MRT) in the canyon by 5 K.  Therefore, additional adaptation to reduce MRT within the urban canyons like tree shade are needed to complement the proposed measures.</p><p>This study concludes that the rising air temperatures expected by climate change puts an unprecedented heat burden on Viennese inhabitants, which cannot easily be reduced by measures concerning buildings within the city itself. Additionally, measures such as planting trees to provide shade, regional water sensitive planning and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to reduce temperature extremes are required.</p><p>We are now actively seeking to apply this set of tools to a wider set of cases in order to try to find effective solutions to projected warming resulting from climate change in urban areas.</p>

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Diaz, MD, MPH-TM, DrPH
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Stroke ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Cascading Effects

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6ºC since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

scholarly journals Global Heat Wave Hazard Considering Humidity Effects during the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Jiawei Liu ◽  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Yuan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Humidity Effects ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Heat Hazard

Humidity is a significant factor contributing to heat stress, but without enough consideration in studies of quantifying heat hazard or heat risk assessment. Here, the simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) considering joint effects of temperature and humidity was utilized as a heat index and the number of annual total heat wave days (HWDs) was employed to quantify heat hazard. In order to evaluate the humidity effects on heat waves, we quantified the difference in the number of HWDs over global land based on air temperature and WBGT. Spatial and temporal changes in surface air temperature, relative humidity, WBGT, and the difference in HWDs were analyzed using multi-model simulations for the reference period (1986–2005) and different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Our analysis suggests that annual mean WBGT has been increasing since 1986, which is consistent with the rising trend in surface air temperature despite a slight decrease in relative humidity. Additionally, changes in annual mean WBGT are smaller and more spatially uniform than those in annual mean air temperature as a cancelation effect between temperature and water vapor. Results show that there is an underestimation of around 40–140 days in the number of HWDs per year in most regions within 15° latitude of the equator (the humid and warm tropics) during 2076–2095 without considering humidity effects. However, the estimation of HWDs has limited distinction between using WBGT and temperature alone in arid or cold regions.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE THERMAL REGIME IN THE RYBINSK RESERVOIR

2021 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
A. Zakonnova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Rybinsk Reservoir ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Average Water Temperature ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Modern Period ◽  
The Rybinsk Reservoir

According to the data of the Rybinsk Hydrometeorological Observatory (HMO) and archival data of the Laboratory of Hydrology, Papanin Institute for Biology of Inland Waters, Russian Academy of Sciences, the seasonal variability of the main climate parameters, air temperature (Rybinsk HMO) and water temperature in the Rybinsk Reservoir have been studied at the modern stage of global warming (2001–2019). Over the period of 1976–2019, the rate of an increase in the average annual air temperature was 0.50°C /10 years in the littoral zone of the Rybinsk Reservoir. Changes in the timing of the onset and end of the climatic seasons of the year and an increase in their duration have been determined. It is found that during the modern period the average surface air temperature was higher than the climatic norm in all months of the year (1960–1990). During the growing season (conventionally May–October), its maximum increase was recorded in July, 1.5°C, May and September, 1.2°C. It is shown during the modern period of intensive global warming the average decadal water temperature in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons increased compared to the norm. The maximum positive anomalies were recorded in the second-third decade of May, 2.8–2.3°C and July, 2.0°C. According to observations at the standard stations, significant differences were recorded in water mass heating: in July in anomalously warm summer of 2010 the average water temperature was 27°C in the surface layer and 18.5°C in the near bottom layer; in the cold summer of 2017, the temperature was 18.5 and 16.0°C, respectively. The monitoring data on the water temperature in the reservoir indicate an increase in the number of years with anomalous thermal conditions as a result of climate change. The earlier temperature stratification of water masses (the end of May) and decrease in the difference in the temperature between the surface and near-bottom water layers have been observed.

scholarly journals Climatic Parameters and Outdoor Workers Safety and Health: A Case Study of Sabzevar City (2011-2017)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danial Mohammadi ◽  
Mohammad Javad Mohammad Javad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Climatic Parameters ◽  
Outdoor Workers ◽  
North East ◽  
Safety And Health

Background: Climate change and global warming present a significant threat to outdoor workers. Climatic parameters change has increased the risk of outdoor workers' safety and health. The objective of this paper was to examine the hypothesis of an association between six years data of climatic parameters and outdoor workers' safety and health. Methods: A variety of approaches have been produced to assess and measure workers' occupational heat exposure and the risk of heat-related disorders. In this study, maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures were used in the heat wave models to compare the sensitivity of predictions according to different climatic parameters in the case study of Sabzevar, settled in the north east of Iran, Khorasan Razavi Province. In this perusal, we used a 6-year data (from March 2011 to June 2017) on medical attendance because of outdoor workers disorders and also daily values of different climatically parameters to investigate the hypothesis of an association between heat indices and outdoor workers disorders. Results: Mean temperature in the case study period was 18.95(0.21) °C. The minimum and maximum recorded temperature in the perusal period was -11.2 °C and 45.4 °C, respectively. The highest and lowest number of outdoor workers disorders was observed for the 11th (max daily air temperature > 35°C for ≥ 1 day) and 4th (mean daily air temperature > 99th percentile for ≥ 2 sequential days) definition of the heat wave in 16 definitions (17.75(4.80) and 0, respectively). Conclusion: This study found that extreme temperature was associated with outdoor worker disorders in Sabzevar. Research into the future likelihood, existence and magnitude of safety and health consequences of global warming and climate change represent an important input to national policy debates.

scholarly journals Global warming and Australian public health: reasons to be concerned

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Bi ◽  
Arthur Saniotis
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Marked Effect ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Public Health Perspective ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
The Future

Studies in global warming and climate change indicate that human populations will be deleteriously affected in the future. Studies forecast that Australia will experience increasing heat waves and droughts. Heat stress caused by frequent heat waves will have a marked effect on older Australians due to physiological and pharmacological factors. In this paper we present an overview of some of the foreseeable issues which older Australians will face from a public health perspective.

scholarly journals Tropopause height at 78° N 16° E: average seasonal variation 2007–2010

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
C. M. Hall ◽  
G. Hansen ◽  
F. Sigernes ◽  
K. M. Kuyeng Ruiz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Column Density ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Tropopause Height ◽  
Vhf Radar ◽  
Ozone Column

Abstract. We present a seasonal climatology of tropopause altitude for 78° N 16° E derived from observations 2007–2010 by the SOUSY VHF radar on Svalbard. The spring minimum occurs one month later than that of surface air temperature and instead coincides with the maximum in ozone column density. This confirms similar studies based on radiosonde measurements in the arctic and demonstrates downward control by the stratosphere. If one is to exploit the potential of tropopause height as a metric for climate change at high latitude and elsewhere, it is imperative to observe and understand the processes which establish the tropopause – an understanding to which this study contributes.

5. Climate change impacts

2014 ◽  
pp. 68-97
Author(s):  
Mark Maslin
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Global Biodiversity ◽  
Dangerous Climate Change ◽  
Water And Food Security

What is dangerous climate change? What is our coping range? ‘Climate change impacts’ assesses the potential effects of climate change on the natural environment as well as on human societies and our economies. Climate change impacts will increase significantly as global temperature rises. Climate change will affect the return period and severity of floods, droughts, heat waves, and storms. Coastal cities and towns will be especially vulnerable as sea-level rise will worsen the effects of floods and storm surges. Water and food security and public health will become the most important problems facing all countries. Climate change also threatens global biodiversity and the well being of billions of people.

scholarly journals O8B.6 Occupational heat stress due to climate change: estimating future heat wave hazards

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. A73.2-A73
Author(s):  
Matthias Otto ◽  
Tord Kjellstrom ◽  
Bruno Lemke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
High Heat ◽  
Temperate Climate

Exposure to extreme heat negatively affects occupational health. Heat stress indices like Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) combine temperature and humidity and allow quantifying the climatic impact on human physiology and clinical health. Multi-day periods of high heat stress (aka. heat waves) affect occupational health and productivity independently from the absolute temperature levels; e.g. well-documented heat-waves in Europe caused disruption, hospitalisations and deaths (2003 French heat wave: more than 1000 extra deaths, 15–65 years, mainly men) even though the temperatures were within the normal range of hotter countries.Climate change is likely to increase frequency and severity of periods of high heat stress. However, current global grid-cell based climate models are not designed to predict heat waves, neither in terms of severity or frequency.By analysing 37 years of historic daily heat index data from almost 5000 global weather stations and comparing them to widely used grid-cell based climate model outputs over the same period, our research explores methods to assess the frequency and intensity of heat waves as well as the associated occupational health effects at any location around the world in the future.Weather station temperature extreme values (WBGT) for the 3 hottest days in 30 years exceed the mean WBGT of the hottest month calculated from climate models in the same grid-cell by about 2 degrees in the tropics but by 10 degrees at higher latitudes in temperate climate regions.Our model based on the relationship between actual recorded periods of elevated heat-stress and grid-cell based climate projections, in combination with population and employment projections, can quantify national and regional productivity loss and health effects with greater certainty than is currently the case.

scholarly journals Communicating Climate Change: Probabilistic Expressions and Concrete Events

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Raoni Demnitz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Change Beliefs ◽  
Unanimous Agreement

Abstract Despite near unanimous agreement among climate scientists about global warming, a substantial proportion of Americans remain skeptical or unconcerned. The two experiments reported here tested communication strategies designed to increase trust in and concern about climate change. They also measured attitudes toward climate scientists. Climate predictions were systematically manipulated to include either probabilistic (90% predictive interval) or deterministic (mean value) projections that described either concrete (i.e., heat waves and floods) or abstract events (i.e., temperature and precipitation). The results revealed that projections that included the 90% predictive interval were considered more trustworthy than deterministic projections. In addition, in a nationally representative sample, Republicans who were informed of concrete events with predictive intervals reported greater concern and more favorable attitudes toward climate scientists than when deterministic projections were used. Overall, these findings suggest that while climate change beliefs may be rooted in partisan identity, they remain malleable, especially when targeted communication strategies are used.

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