Perbandingan Metode Arima Box-Jenkins dan Holt-Winters No Seasonal pada Peramalan Jumlah Penderita ISPA di Kota Malang

ISPA is an acute respiratory disease with special attention to pneumonia (ISPA), and not an ear and throat disease. In order to make plans to reduce the number of ISPA sufferers in the regions with effective and responsible principles, valid forecasts are needed. There is a relatively large difference between targets and achievements in tackling ISPA sufferers in Malang City during 2017 - 2020, and given the importance of forecasting as an indicator of reducing ISPA sufferers, it is deemed necessary to conduct research on the application of the Box-Jenkins model in forecasting ISPA patients. This study aims to create an estimation model for patients with ISPA in Malang Regency using data from the Health Office from 2017 to 2020. The analytical technique applied is the Box-Jenkins model or the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results showed that by using data from the Malang City Health Office from 2014 to 2019, it was concluded that the best forecasting model was ARIMA(1,1,0). Researchers hope that the forecasting method and forecasting results can be used as additional information for the health department in Malang City in determining policies that must be taken in the prevention of ISPA sufferers according to the needs of patients in Malang City.

Monitoring of self­assessment by health care workers of the quality of own life during the pandemic of acute respiratory disease caused by SARS-­CoV­-2 coronavirus in 2020

Comparative analysis of changes in self-assessment of quality of life (QoL) indicators by young medical students during 2020 revealed certain correlations depending on the time during which they were forced to study and work against the background of the predominantly negative influence of the chronic stressful situation — the need to daily contact with different patients in conditions of many months of quarantine due to pandemic of acute respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. The overall negative impact of the infectious pandemic and the resulting fears on public consciousness were quite expected. Medical workers with different clinical experiences and qualifications (nursing students and doctors), quite emotionally reacted to the potential danger of being infected with coronavirus infection due to daily professional contacts with various patients who had somatic diseases, some of which might already be in the incubation period of clinical course of coronavirus pathology. This directly reduces their self-esteem of QOL and, in certain situations, can be a factor that leads to the appearance of psychosomatic disorders in them as a kind of somatic occupational pathology, especially with prolonged (many months) continuation of lockdown restrictions due to the high level of morbidity and mortality of the population. The monitoring of changes in self-esteem of individual components of QoL turned out to be quite dependent both on the expression of individual psychological traits of each tested person and on the time of the survey (spring—late summer—winter 2020—2021).

The importance of state ensuring the right of citizens to quality medical care in the conditions of COVID-19 vaccination

The article analyzes the state guarantee of the right of citizens to quality medical care in terms of vaccination from COVID-19. It is determined that in today's conditions it is extremely important to ensure the proper functioning of health care, the provision of quality medical services which in turn will guarantee proper medical care. The state must provide the citizens of Ukraine not only with the vaccine, but also with reliable information about the need for vaccination. It turns out that the small number of vaccinated in Ukraine is not only due to the slow pace of procurement and vaccination, but also the lack of awareness of citizens about all the benefits of the need for vaccination. It is concluded that the positive in today's conditions are: the efforts of the legislator still not to influence the subjective choice of every resident of Ukraine on the need for vaccination; regulatory support of the Center for Public Health, which in turn will strengthen the network of regional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CCP); creation of a Roadmap for the introduction of a vaccine against acute respiratory disease COVID-19 caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Interferon-Lambda Intranasal Protection and Differential Sex Pathology in a Murine Model of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. In this report, we used a preclinical mouse model to investigate the prophylactic and therapeutic value of intranasal IFN-λ for this acute respiratory disease.

The Activin/FLRG pathway associates with poor COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized patients

A subset of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, particularly the aged and those with co-morbidities, develop the most severe form of the disease, characterized by Acute Respiratory Disease Syndrome (ARDS), coincident with experiencing a “cytokine storm." Here, we demonstrate that cytokines which activate the NF-kappaB pathway can induce Activin A. Patients with elevated Activin A, Activin B, and FLRG at hospital admission were associated with the most severe outcomes of COVID-19, including the requirement for mechanical ventilation, and all-cause mortality. A prior study showed that Activin A could decrease viral load, which indicated there might be a risk to giving COVID-19 patients an inhibitor of Activin. To evaluate this, the role for Activin A was examined in a hamster model of SARS-CoV2 infection, via blockade of Activin A signaling. The hamster model demonstrated that use of an anti-ActivinA antibody did not worsen the disease and there was no evidence for increase in lung viral load and pathology. The study indicates blockade of Activin signaling may be beneficial in treating COVID-19 patients experiencing ARDS.

Organizational And Legal Study of Quarantine Restrictions in The Spread of Coronavirus Disease in Ukraine

The study is dedicated to legislative, normative, legal, and regulatory changes in the medical and educational sphere of activity, which occurred as a result of quarantine and introduction of restrictive anti-epidemic measures in order to prevent the spread of acute respiratory disease COVID-19 in Ukraine. It was noted that the changes in the legislation of Ukraine have significantly affected the medical and educational sphere of activity (doctors, pharmacists, teachers, students, listeners). The main prohibitions and permits in the work of specialists in medicine and education were given. The necessity of further studying the experience in the leading countries of the world on vaccination of different segments of the population is substantiated.

The effect of intravenous immunoglobulin on the course of acute respiratory disease COVID-19. Own observations

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected people in many countries around the world. The discovery of an effective treatment for this disease, especially in severe cases, has been the subject of intensive scientific research. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) administration in patients with severe COVID-19 infection. Patients with acute respiratory disease COVID-19 who received intravenous immunoglobulin in the intensive care unit were exami­ned. All patients underwent non-invasive ventilation and all patients had concomitant pathology. Twenty patients participated in the study, 10 patients received an infusion of intravenous immunoglobulin. Patients who received IVIG were on invasive pulmonary ventilation for an average of 7 days, the condition of patients improved by days 2–3. At the time of transfer to adjacent departments (on ave­rage, day 14), the dynamics of the disease improved. Respiration rate was 23 per 1 min. SpO2 without O2 was 92 %. All patients presented with lymphopenia and increased transaminases level, the values of which normalized by days 2–3. When ultrasound examination of the lungs, there were no pulmonary consolidations in patients. Mortality in the group of patients who received IVIG was lower compared to patients who did not receive IVIG.

The role of influenza vaccination in the prevention of pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease that causes annual epidemics and periodic pandemics with high mortality. It is characterized by the development of severe complications, the main of which are pulmonary and cardiovascular ones. The only effective method of preventing influenza, and therefore the influenza-associated complications, is vaccination, which is carried out annually on the basis of World Health Organization influenza vaccines composition recommendations. This article provides the review of the research data confirming the effective role of influenza vaccination in the prevention of pulmonary and cardiovascular pathologies (bibliography: 12 refs).