scholarly journals Some aspects of justification of acceptable risk levels in oil refineries

2021 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Kh.B. Gulieva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Oil Refineries ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Level Of Risk

Currently, the problems of environmental safety are facing society. The industry develops every year. In this critical economic situation, the oil industry is a stimulant for the economic sector in Azerbaijan. The level of development of this industry is also relevant due to other reasons: sociological, technological and features of the economy of Azerbaijan. The production activity of oil processing, concentrating harmful substances and energy, is a source of man-made danger and pollution of the natural environment. The risk management process mainly consists of three stages - risk safety analysis, risk assessment, which is carried out in comparison of calculated and actual risk levels, the so-called acceptable risk levels and the adoption of appropriate regulations and management decisions. One of the factors that should be taken into account when assessing risk and safety is to determine the necessary costs. Since these costs are paid directly to the company, they try to minimize them as much as possible, which reduce the accuracy of risk assessment. One of the objectives of the study is to determine the optimal value of the necessary costs. It is established that the less reliable the method, the lower is the cost of its implementation. The methodological basis of the work was scientific works on these problems of scientists-economists, mathematicians on safety and risk assessment at industrial enterprises. When developing the presented methodology, computational algorithms developed by Dow Chemical were used. This company has collected a large volume of material on accident statistics, taking into account damages. Based on the obtained and experimentally verified data, a system of indices has been developed, an assessment of various indicators for qualitative and quantitative risk assessment of oil refineries. The analysis of the technogenic danger of oil refineries makes it possible to determine ecological and economic losses and choose rational possibilities of acceptable risk. The required costs, depending on the level of risk, are determined based on an increase in the accuracy of calculating the probability of occurrence of the cause of risks. The article examines the relationship between the expected level of risk and economic losses during oil refining in separate technological units, which allow determining the required level of risk and the expected economic damage.

A neural network approach for retailer risk assessment in the aftermarket industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1631-1647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shirin Rezaei ◽  
Sajjad Shokouhyar ◽  
Mostafa Zandieh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Management Process

Purpose Given the competitive environment and complicated relationships in supply chains in the modern era, it is important to take into account internal and external risks. In addition, proper methods must be designed to evaluate these risks correctly. The purpose of this paper is to provide a suitable map based on the artificial neural network technique to assess and classify the risk levels of retailers who have interconnected rules in the downstream of the supply chain. Design/methodology/approach In this research, a model for risk assessment with a hexagonal grid and 2D self-organizing map was applied. Findings According to the results, the model used in the study can provide a basis for classification of retailers based on the specified risk levels defined by the experts and risk managers of the company. Also with the model’s visual output, managers can have a better understanding of the distribution of the risk level of retailers. Practical implications The proposed methodology can be adopted by managers to assess the risk of members involved in the supply chain, helping them to formulate the risk mitigation strategies based on the risk levels. Originality/value As a part of the risk management process, organizations can use this developed method to reduce the existing risks imposed by the members or customers on the company.

Assessment of Societal Risks Associated With Large Gas Transmission Pipeline Systems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongliang Lu ◽  
Alex Tomic ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Criteria ◽  
Alternative Method ◽  
Societal Risk ◽  
Pipeline Systems ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Level Of Risk

Abstract Risk assessment is the process of risk analysis and evaluation. It is a required component of pipeline integrity management programs (IMP) and is generally the first step in most IMPs. For the risk assessment of natural gas pipelines, the primary concern is the safety of population near the pipeline right of way (ROW). TC Energy’s SWRA uses a quantitative risk assessment model that considers the effect of the thermal radiation due to ignited pipeline rupture and evaluate the consequence on the surrounding population. The overall risk is then evaluated using two specific risk criteria: societal risk and individual risk, with the societal risk measuring the overall level of risk to a community or a group of people and the individual risk measuring the level of risk to specific individuals who are present within the pipeline hazard zone. Natural gas pipeline systems often extend hundreds or even thousands of miles. As such, societal risk criteria for pipelines are typically defined based on a given length of pipeline segment, usually in 1 km or 1 mile (1.6 km). To assess the societal risk of actual pipelines, different approaches are taken on how the risk along the length of a pipeline should be aggregated and compared to the criteria. For example, the PD8010-3 standard in the UK recommends the societal risk of a pipeline through a community to be aggregated and then normalized to the unit length to be compared with criteria; whereas the Dutch regulation requires societal risk at the worst location to be used. In the current SWRA, the societal risk along the length of a pipeline going through development areas or communities is aggregated following the recommendation of the UK PD8010-3, where the risk is aggregated and normalized to the pipeline length. Due to the vast scale of the pipeline system, it is impractical to manually review all development along the pipelines for conducting societal risk assessment on a system wide basis. As such, extent of communities and development areas is determined by a computer program using a simple set of rules. It was found to have led to unsatisfying granularity in the societal risk assessment in certain situations, with some interaction lengths being too long and thus failing to identify the more critical section within the interaction length, and certain development lengths being too short and thus not very meaningful from a societal risk perspective. To overcome issues with the current societal risk assessment method in SWRA, an alternative method largely following the direction of the Dutch approach is introduced in this paper. In this alternative approach, the societal risk is evaluated continuously along a pipeline with a predefined a sliding length, and thus variations in the societal risk levels along the entire length of a pipeline, including the locations with the highest societal risk levels, can be identified. Implantation details and computational efficiency were discussed. The results from the alternative method were compared to that from the current method. The sensitivity of the sliding length method to the predefined sliding length was also investigated. The study showed that this alternative method improves the accuracy and granularity of the societal risk assessment in the SWRA, and, although it is relatively computational commanding, with an efficient implementation, is still practical even for very large gas transmission systems.

scholarly journals PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF RISK ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA DEVELOPMENT IN MARITIME SHIPPING / PRAKTYCZNE ASPEKTY OKREŚLANIA KRYTERIÓW AKCEPTOWALNOŚCI RYZYKA W ŻEGLUDZE MORSKIEJ

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-98
Author(s):  
Teresa Abramowicz-Gerigk ◽  
Zbigniew Burciu ◽  
Piotr Kaminski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Safety Management Systems ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Maritime Shipping ◽  
Risk Acceptance

Abstract The paper presents practical aspects of development of acceptable risk levels in maritime shipping with respect to the cooperation of parties involved in maritime safety, commonly used risk acceptance principles, criteria and uncertainties related to their development. The results of analysis of risk assessment methods used for potentially hazardous operations on board ships performed on the basis of extensive studies on the onboard safety management systems is presented. The merits and drawbacks of the approach used in the development of risk acceptance criteria in onboard safety management systems are discussed.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF RISK ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES ACTIVITIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Basіurkina ◽  
V. Shaleny
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Methodology ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology ◽  
Level Of Risk

The article deals with the main theoretical aspects of risk assessment of industrial enterprises in theshort-and long-term periods. The main features of short-term and long-term risks inherent to industrial enterprises have been determined. Comprehensive risk assessment methodology has been developed based onobtaining coherent assessment of the level of short-term and long-term risks. This methodology can be implemented in the form of an express assessment (simplified risk assessment) and in the form of risk matrix(advanced assessment of risks), depending on the objectives of the assessment, available resources andother constraints. The expediency of using an express assessment is, first of all, in the analysis of dynamicsof the level of risk at the enterprise. By positioning the risk profile of an enterprise in a certain area of thematrix of risks, it is possible to determine the main reserves for reducing the overall level of risk and increasethe effectiveness of risk management. The assessment of the risk level dynamics of activity, obtained in theform of risk vector, also provides significant basis for decision making on risk management.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

THE MAIN DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC SUPPORT OF THE REGIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE POPULATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (11) ◽  
pp. 133-140
Author(s):  
E. V. DMITRIEVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
Security System ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crisis Situations

The article considers topical issues of economic support for the development of the regional security system of the population against various risks. The dependence of the impact of the scale of crisis situations on economic activities in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which become a serious barrier to the sustainable development of the regions of the country, was investigated. The increasing importance of risks of economic losses from accidents and disasters at potentially dangerous facilities as a result of the complex influence of natural, manmade and fire factors has been established. An analysis was carried out and proposals were developed to implement the key tasks of the state in the field of ensuring the protection of the population and territories of the country from disasters in order to ensure the stability of the economy. The organizational structure, division of tasks and functions between officials, crisis management structures and responding units were analyzed, taking into account the reduction in current financial costs. On the basis of a study of the peculiarities of the regions of the country, recommendations were formed to fulfill the necessary tasks by the anti-crisis management bodies in the field of reducing economic damage on the basis of preventing crisis situations and ensuring fire safety. It is proposed to organize the practical application of a complex automated security system based on modern developments with the application of improving the qualities and efficiency of anti-crisis management processes in order to increase economic efficiency. Initial data were formed to reduce potential threats of a natural, man-made, fire and other nature in the regions using financial and economic mechanisms. It is proposed to implement a set of priority measures to further improve and increase the potential of economic support for the anti-crisis management system. The materials of the article can be used in planning the main directions of the development of the regional population security system and the implementation of socio-economic development programs.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals Comparative Transcriptomic Analysis of Riptortus pedestris (Hemiptera: Alydidae) to Characterize Wing Formation across All Developmental Stages

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 226
Author(s):  
Siying Fu ◽  
Yujie Duan ◽  
Siqi Wang ◽  
Yipeng Ren ◽  
Wenjun Bu
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Mechanisms ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Average Length ◽  
Transcriptome Assembly ◽  
Expression Profiles ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Wing Formation ◽  
Riptortus Pedestris

Riptortus pedestris (Hemiptera: Alydidae) is a major agricultural pest in East Asia that causes considerable economic losses to the soybean crop each year. However, the molecular mechanisms governing the growth and development of R. pedestris have not been fully elucidated. In this study, the Illumina HiSeq6000 platform was employed to perform de novo transcriptome assembly and determine the gene expression profiles of this species across all developmental stages, including eggs, first-, second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-instar nymphs, and adults. In this study, a total of 60,058 unigenes were assembled from numerous raw reads, exhibiting an N50 length of 2126 bp and an average length of 1199 bp, and the unigenes were annotated and classified with various databases, such as the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), Clusters of Orthologous Groups (COG), and Gene Ontology (GO). Furthermore, various numbers of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were calculated through pairwise comparisons of all life stages, and some of these DEGs were associated with immunity, metabolism, and development by GO and KEGG enrichment. In addition, 35,158 simple sequence repeats (SSRs) and 715,604 potential single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified from the seven transcriptome libraries of R. pedestris. Finally, we identified and summarized ten wing formation-related signaling pathways, and the molecular properties and expression levels of five wing development-related genes were analyzed using quantitative real-time PCR for all developmental stages of R. pedestris. Taken together, the results of this study may establish a foundation for future research investigating developmental processes and wing formation in hemimetabolous insects and may provide valuable data for pest control efforts attempting to reduce the economic damage caused by this pest.

Brisa Experience – Risk Assessment and Capital Investment Planning at Brisa

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sónia Santos Santiago
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Maintenance Strategies ◽  
Informed Decisions ◽  
Level Of Risk

<p>This topic addresses the model developed by Brisa to assess risk and to prioritize actions on assets, aiming to enable informed decisions on the setup, maintenance, decommissioning and disposal of assets, providing awareness on the level of risk vs profitability and the capability to identify the optimum mix of capital investment and operations &amp; maintenance strategies, along the asset lifecycle.</p>

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