Why it is hard to be happy with what we have: A reinforcement learning perspective

The pursuit of happiness is not easy. Habituation to positive changes in lifestyle and constant comparisons leave us unhappy even in the best of conditions. Given their disruptive impact, it remains a puzzle why habituation and comparisons have come to be a part of cognition in the first place. Here, we present computational evidence that suggests that these features might play an important role in promoting adaptive behavior. Using the framework of reinforcement learning, we explore the benefit of employing a reward function that, in addition to the reward provided by the underlying task, also depends on prior expectations and relative comparisons. We find that while agents equipped with this reward function are less "happy", they learn faster and significantly outperform standard reward-based agents in a wide range of environments. The fact that these features provide considerable adaptive benefits might explain why we have the propensity to keep wanting more, even if it contributes to depression, materialism, and overconsumption.

On Comparing Cross-Validated Forecasting Models with a Novel Fuzzy-TOPSIS Metric: A COVID-19 Case Study

Time series cross-validation is a technique to select forecasting models. Despite the sophistication of cross-validation over single test/training splits, traditional and independent metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), are commonly used to assess the model’s accuracy. However, what if decision-makers have different models fitting expectations to each moment of a time series? What if the precision of the forecasted values is also important? This is the case of predicting COVID-19 in Amapá, a Brazilian state in the Amazon rainforest. Due to the lack of hospital capacities, a model that promptly and precisely responds to notable ups and downs in the number of cases may be more desired than average models that only have good performances in more frequent and calm circumstances. In line with this, this paper proposes a hybridization of the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy sets to create a similarity metric, the closeness coefficient (CC), that enables relative comparisons of forecasting models under heterogeneous fitting expectations and also considers volatility in the predictions. We present a case study using three parametric and three machine learning models commonly used to forecast COVID-19 numbers. The results indicate that the introduced fuzzy similarity metric is a more informative performance assessment metric, especially when using time series cross-validation.

Meeting the Real “Gini” of India:

Based on our fraught human history of widespread revolts, it is often presumed that income inequality can disrupt the status-quo. In recent years, researchers have come to question this connection between actual inequality and adverse political results. The findings show that most people around the world are unable to gauge societal inequality through relative comparisons, and are uncertain about both the magnitude and directionality of the gap. The aim of this study was twofold: 1) to assess the disparity between Indian respondents’ perceived and actual ratings of income inequality in India using a Gini Coefficient score; and 2) to identify factors that influenced these ratings. Almost 250 respondents from a wide cross-section of India participated in an online survey to give their perceived ratings of India’s Gini coefficient score along with the factors that influenced their responses. Over 90.2% considered the degree of inequality in India to be far higher than the actuality, thus showing the great extent to which they consider their country to be an unequal one. The analysis identifies “Quality of Governance” as the only statistically significant predictor for improving income inequality, showing that the government is considered to be the primary bearer of responsibility for providing quality education and healthcare, which is sadly lacking. Nonetheless, the findings constitute a “call to action” for the Indian Government to implement more effective policies to tackle these issues. Future studies could delve deeper into the problem to determine the extent to which governance influences perceived income inequality in India.

Performance of a Bog Hydrological System Dynamics Simulation Model in an Ecological Restoration Context: Soomaa Case Study, Estonia

We describe how a bog hydrology simulation model, developed in the System Dynamics environment, predicts the changes in the groundwater levels that result from drainage ditch closure and partial thinning of the surrounding forest stand. Five plots were selected in an area that was subjected to such ecological restoration, and the observed groundwater levels were compared with the simulated ones. Across the plots, the mean difference between the observed and simulated groundwater curves varied between 0.88 and 2.63 cm, and the RMSE between 0.28 and 0.71. Although the absolute difference between the predicted vs. observed values was greater in the plots with ditch closure, the curves co-varied more closely there over time. Therefore, hydrological System Dynamics models can be particularly useful for relative comparisons and risk-mapping of novel management scenarios.

When Sharing Isn’t Caring: The Influence of Seeking The Best on Sharing Favorable Word of Mouth about Unsatisfactory Purchases

Past research generally finds that if consumers share word of mouth about past purchases with others, the valence of the information tends to be congruent with actual perceptions. Thus, a negative purchase experience should elicit negative (vs. positive) word of mouth. We examine how a goal of attaining the best possible outcome, or maximizing, may alter this tendency. Drawing on prior work demonstrating that consumers may view their own personal failures more favorably through relative comparisons with others faring similarly or worse, we show that maximizing increases consumers’ propensity to share favorable word of mouth about unsatisfactory purchases, in an effort to encourage others to make the same poor choices, as they seek to enhance the perceived relative standing of and post-purchase feelings toward their own unsatisfying outcomes. We further show that consumers particularly exhibit this behavior when sharing with psychologically close (vs. distant) others, as comparisons with close others are especially relevant to relative standing. Finally, we consider the downstream consequences of such behavior, finding that when consumers successfully persuade close others to make the same bad decisions, they feel better about their own outcomes, but are also burdened with feelings of guilt that erode their overall wellbeing.

La “fortezza invisibile”: il telegrafo ottico Chappe nella Francia napoleonica

The “invisible fortress”: the Chappe optical telegraph in the Napoleonic FranceEven in the defensive and fortifying processes, two aspects can be found: the material component and the immaterial one. If all the constructive, material and structural procedures are the first, for example, all that concerns remote communications (maximum optics) belongs to the second, an indispensable tool to complete an optimal strategy for offensive and/or defensive operations. Remote optical transmissions are closely connected to the management of defensive systems: this is also what happens with the optical telegraph of Claude Chappe, conceived during the French Revolution and adopted by Napoleon for the potential inherent in the strategic and territorial logic, as for the organization, structuring and sending of encrypted messages (which since the sixteenth century had also seen the interest of Leon Battista Alberti. The densest part of the network spreads to France, from Paris to the borders of the nation. In Europe, you will see achievements in Spain, up to Russia. The Lyon-Paris-Venice line also led to the construction of a Lombard-Piedmontese section. The present contribution stems from a conspicuous research, founded on the twenty-year collaboration of Marotta with the FNARH (Fédération Nationale des Associations de Recherche Historique sur la Poste et les Télécommunications). The system included the installation in high positions (hills, towers or bell towers) of a mechanical device, which could be reached at a distance of kilometers. On top of a fixed pole of about 5 m, the apparatus consisted of a central axis (ordinateur) at the ends of which two mobile arms (indicateurs) were fixed which allowed (in the variation of the reciprocal positions and inclinations) to realize multiple signals, at the base of an entire encrypted visual alphabet, arrived in 1841 up to 61000 messages. Multiple types of models made. The contribution will return the chronological developments of the system, in time and space of territories involved, with the relative comparisons of types, models and languages, also through 3D modeling.

Estimating the Safety Effects of Congestion Warning Systems using Carriageway Aggregate Data

Is it possible to use just aggregate carriageway data for the evaluation of congestion warning systems (CWS) in large networks—or any system affecting traffic safety for that matter? In this paper, two hypotheses related to this question are tested. The first hypothesis is that it can be done by comparing large-scale congestion patterns on road stretches with and without CWS. The underlying rationale is that heterogeneous congestion patterns with many disturbances, frequent wide moving jams, and large speed differences result in more potentially unsafe traffic conditions than more homogeneous congestion patterns. The second hypothesis is that it is possible to compare differences in average (maximum) deceleration distributions into congestion waves between road stretches with and without CWS. Both hypotheses have been tested for similar bottlenecks with similar demand patterns and the results suggest the first hypothesis must be rejected. Although the idea seems plausible (CWS result in more homogeneous congestion patterns) there were too many confounding factors in the data to make the case. However, persuasive evidence was found for the second hypothesis. Statistically significant differences were found between (maximum) deceleration distributions on road stretches with and without CWS that suggest CWS do—as expected—contribute positively to traffic safety. It thus seems to be possible to monitor safety effects using just average speeds. However, the method is limited to providing relative comparisons. Furthermore, to fully rule out the effects of unobserved factors, more evidence and validation with microscopic data are needed.

Regret in Experience-Based Decisions: The Effects of Expected Value Differences and Mixed Gains and Losses

Previous research on experience-based decisions with full feedback supports the idea that people tend to prefer options that minimize the probability of regret. The current study explored whether this preference is modulated by differences in expected value (EV) and the presence or absence of occasional losses. Participants (n = 52) completed an online experiment that involved repeated choices between a safer and a riskier option while receiving full feedback. The riskier option yielded a better outcome on 80% of draws so that choosing it minimized the probability of regret. Preference for the riskier, regret-minimizing option was high when it had the same EV as the safer option and all outcomes were gains, but it decreased when the safer option had a higher EV and when both options included occasional losses. Outcome ratings that were obtained on 50% of trials showed large effects of regret and rejoicing, confirming that participants were sensitive to relative comparisons between obtained and forgone outcomes. Reinforcement-learning modeling indicated that the effects of unequal EVs and mixed outcomes could be accounted for by assuming combined encoding of absolute and relative outcomes and unequal weighting of gains and losses. Overall, these results demonstrate that the impact of regret can be modulated by structural features of the choice environment.

Experimental evaluation of strength degradation of orthodontic chain elastics exposed to cigarette combustion smoke

Introduction: Effects of cigars in the performance of dental restorative materials have been largely investigated; however, no information about the role of smoking cigars in strength degradation of orthodontic elastics has been revealed. Aim of the study: evaluate the effect of smoke derived from cigarette combustion on the strength degradation of orthodontic chain elastics. Materials and methods: Four distinct elastics from two different manufacturers were evaluated: Maximum Power Chain Pearl (OTP) (OrthoTechnology); Maximum Power Chain Pearl Tone Blue (OTPB) (OrthoTechnology); Orthodontic Elastic Chain Gray (MG) (Morelli); Orthodontic Elastic Chain Crystal (MC) (Morelli). Elastic segments were distended and exposed for eight minutes, twice a day with interval of 12 hours to cigarette combustion smoke. Elastic tension was evaluated at baseline, 7, 14 and 21 days. Results: the findings have shown that all elastics presented progressive tension reduction over the period evaluated. Statistically significant differences were evidenced from the baseline to 7 days and from 14 to 21 days period. The OTP and OTPB elastics presented greater initial tension when compared to the MG and MC elastics. This pattern was reproduced throughout the study periods. When test groups were compared to the control in the period of 21 days, it was observed that cigars combustion smoke reduced in a statistically significant manner the elastic strength in all groups tested. Relative comparisons between the tested samples and control in the period of 21 days indicated that smoke exposure promoted strength loss that varied from 7% (OTP) to 12% (OTPB). Conclusion: experimental exposure to cigarettes combustion smoke contributed for the strength degradation of orthodontic chain elastics in the period of 21 days.