The detection of delirium in admitted oncology patients: a scoping review

Purpose Delirium leads to poor outcomes for patients and careers and has negative impacts on staff and service provision. Cancer rates in elderly populations are increasing and frequently, cancer diagnoses are a co-morbidity in the context of frailty. Data relating to the epidemiology of delirium in hospitalised cancer patients are limited. With the overarching purpose of improving delirium detection and reducing the morbidity and mortality of delirium in cancer patients, we reviewed the epidemiological data and approach to delirium detection in hospitalised, adult oncology patients. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and SCOPUS databases were searched from January 1996 to August 2017. Key concepts were delirium, cancer, inpatient oncology and delirium screening/detection. Results Of 896 unique studies identified; 91 met full-text review criteria. Of 12 eligible studies, four applied recommended case ascertainment methods to all patients, three used delirium screening tools alone or with case ascertainment tools sub-optimally applied, four used tools not recommended for delirium screening or case ascertainment, one used the Confusion Assessment Method with insufficient information to determine if it met case ascertainment status. Two studies presented delirium incidence rates: 7.8%, and 17% respectively. Prevalence rates ranged from 18–33% for general medical or oncology wards; 42–58% for Acute Palliative Care Units (APCU); and for older cancer patients: 22% and 57%. Three studies reported reversibility; 26% and 49% respectively (APCUs) and 30% (older patients with cancer). Six studies had a low risk of bias according to QUADAS-2 criteria; all studies in the APCU setting were rated at higher risk of bias. Tool selection, study flow and recruitment bias reduced study quality. Conclusion The knowledge base for improved interventions and clinical care for adults with cancer and delirium is limited by the low number of studies. A clear distinction between screening tools and diagnostic tools is required to provide an improved understanding of the rates of delirium and its reversibility in this population.

Evaluation of the Completeness of ALS Case Ascertainment in the U.S. National ALS Registry: Application of the Capture-Recapture Method

Introduction: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Registry is the first national registry for a chronic neurologic disease in the U.S. and uses a combination of case-finding methods including administrative healthcare data and patient self-registration. Methods: We applied capture-recapture methodology to estimate the completeness of the Registry for ascertaining patients with ALS for the first full year and the fourth years of the Registry (2011, 2014). The Registry uses the combination of two national administrative claims databases (Medicare and Veterans Affairs) with a self-register option at the registry portal. We conducted descriptive analyses of the demographic and clinical characteristics of the ALS cases identified by each of the sources and estimated the completeness of case ascertainment for each of the three ALS Registry sources individually, pairwise, and in all combinations. Results: Case-finding completeness was 54% in 2011 and improved to 56% in 2014. A smaller proportion of ALS patients under age 65 were ascertained than those 65 or older and ascertainment was also lower for non-White than White patients. The uncorrected ALS prevalence was 4.3/100,000 in 2011 (in 2014 5.0/100,000), but after correction for under-ascertainment, annual prevalence in 2011 was 7.9/100,000 (95% CI 7.6-8.2) (in 2014 was 8.9/100,000 (95% CI 8.7-9.2)). Discussion/Conclusion: Our findings indicate that administrative healthcare databases are a very efficient method for identifying the majority of ALS prevalent cases in the National ALS Registry and that the inclusion of a web registry portal for patients to self-register is important to ensure a more representative population for estimating ALS prevalence. Nonetheless, more than 40% of ALS cases were not ascertained by the Registry, with individuals younger than age 65 and people of color underrepresented. Recommendations are provided for additional methods that can be considered to improve the completeness of case ascertainment.

Effect of public health interventions during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Cyprus: a modelling study

Background Cyprus addressed the first wave of SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) by implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The aims of this study were: a) to estimate epidemiological parameters of this wave including infection attack ratio, infection fatality ratio, and case ascertainment ratio, b) to assess the impact of public health interventions and examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented. Methods A dynamic, stochastic, individual-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model was developed to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression in the population of the Republic of Cyprus. The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use. Results By May 8th, 2020, the infection attack ratio was 0.31% (95% Credible Interval [CrI]: 0.15, 0.54%), the infection fatality ratio was 0.71% (95% CrI: 0.44, 1.61%), and the case ascertainment ratio was 33.2% (95% CrI: 19.7, 68.7%). If Cyprus had not implemented any public health measure, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed by April 14th. The interventions averted 715 (95% CrI: 339, 1235) deaths. If Cyprus had only increased ICU beds, without any social distancing measure, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed by April 19th. Conclusions The decision of the Cypriot authorities to launch early NPIs limited the burden of the first wave of COVID-19. The findings of these analyses could help address the next waves of COVID-19 in Cyprus and other similar settings.

Rapid incidence estimation from SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals decreased case detection in Europe during summer 2020

By October 2021, 230 million SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses have been reported. Yet, a considerable proportion of cases remains undetected. Here, we propose GInPipe, a method that rapidly reconstructs SARS-CoV-2 incidence profiles solely from publicly available, time-stamped viral genomes. We validate GInPipe against simulated outbreaks and elaborate phylodynamic analyses. Using available sequence data, we reconstruct incidence histories for Denmark, Scotland, Switzerland, and Victoria (Australia) and demonstrate, how to use the method to investigate the effects of changing testing policies on case ascertainment. Specifically, we find that under-reporting was highest during summer 2020 in Europe, coinciding with more liberal testing policies at times of low testing capacities. Due to the increased use of real-time sequencing, it is envisaged that GInPipe can complement established surveillance tools to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In post-pandemic times, when diagnostic efforts are decreasing, GInPipe may facilitate the detection of hidden infection dynamics.

EP.FRI.857 Audit and quality improvement project; data entry into the NELA database from Royal Stoke university hospital

Aims During the period December-2018 to November-2019 a total of 84 cases were entered on the NELA website, corresponding to HES data suggesting 392 laparotomies. This suggests a possible case acquisition of 21% prompting us to look at our data acquisition in detail. Methods Interrogation of the NELA data from January–March 2020 was done from NELA website and hospital records. Results Analysis revealed that during this period 45 patients had laparotomy recorded whereas hospital database recorded 68 laparotomies. Of the 45 cases entered on the NELA database, only 1 patient had a complete data set entered. 22 cases had 87% data entry and 22 cases had <50% of the data fields completed. Firstly, we were not capturing all patients who underwent an emergency laparotomy and secondly our data entry for the patients we did report was incomplete. This led us to engage in a quality improvement project with following measures - Conclusions We re-assessed the case ascertainment and completeness of data collection in the period April 2020 – June 2020 and case ascertainment rate increased to 54% and all the entries were complete and locked.

Sub-spreading events limit the reliable elimination of heterogeneous epidemics

We show that sub-spreading events, i.e. transmission events in which an infection propagates to few or no individuals, can be surprisingly important for defining the lifetime of an infectious disease epidemic and hence its waiting time to elimination or fade-out, measured from the time-point of its last observed case. While limiting super-spreading promotes more effective control when cases are growing, we find that when incidence is waning, curbing sub-spreading is more important for achieving reliable elimination of the epidemic. Controlling super-spreading in this low-transmissibility phase offers diminishing returns over non-selective, population-wide measures. By restricting sub-spreading, we efficiently dampen remaining variations among the reproduction numbers of infectious events, which minimizes the risk of premature and late end-of-epidemic declarations. Because case-ascertainment or reporting rates can be modelled in exactly the same way as control policies, we concurrently show that the under-reporting of sub-spreading events during waning phases will engender overconfident assessments of epidemic elimination. While controlling sub-spreading may not be easily realized, the likely neglecting of these events by surveillance systems could result in unexpectedly risky end-of-epidemic declarations. Super-spreading controls the size of the epidemic peak but sub-spreading mediates the variability of its tail.

Prevalence of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) in Greater Manchester, UK: an active case ascertainment study

Background: Despite high levels of prenatal alcohol exposure in the UK, evidence on the prevalence of fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) is lacking. This paper reports on FASD prevalence in a small sample. Methods: A two-phase active case ascertainment study was conducted in three mainstream primary schools in Greater Manchester, UK. Schools were located in areas that ranged from relatively deprived to relatively affluent. Initial screening of children aged 8-9 years used pre-specified criteria for elevated FASD risk (small for age; special educational needs; currently/previously in care; significant social/emotional/mental health symptoms). Screen positive children were invited for detailed ascertainment of FASD using gold standard measures. Results: Of 220 eligible children, 50 (23%) screened positive and 12% (26/220) proceeded to phase-two assessment. Twenty had a developmental disorder, four had FASD and four were assessed as possible FASD. The crude prevalence rate of FASD in these schools was 1.8% (95%CI: 1.0%,3.4%) and when including possible cases was 3.6% (2.1%,6.3%). None of these children had previously identified with a developmental diagnosis. Conclusions: FASD was found to be common in these schools, but limitations to the sampling restrict inferences to a population prevalence. Most of these children's needs had not previously been identified.