Emergence of Protests During The COVID-19 Pandemic: Quantitative Models To Explore The Contributions of Societal Conditions

Abstract The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a resurgence of protests. Various societal conditions of social systems, such as economic stability, demographic ageing, and political elites, are often associated to the emergence of civil resistance movements. Several qualitative and quantitative models have been developed to analyse the relationship between societal conditions and the emergence of protests. The existing models use the underlying assumptions that these conditions operate in similar time-scales. However, the analysis of social systems also shows the importance of considering explicitly the inherent time-scales particularly slow-fast dynamics. The sudden and dramatic disruptive force of the pandemic has yield fine-grained data sets that can be used to better grasp the different dynamics of this social phenom. This paper proposes an integrated approach to explore the relationship between societal conditions and the emergence of protests in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, a literature based causal-loop-diagram is constructed to conceptualise the emergence of civil resistance as a result of intertwined dynamics. Based on the derived factors in the literature study, a data set is constructed to enable this analysis. Furthermore, by means of statistical and computational modelling we conduct a quantitative analysis in which we compare the emergence of protests for 27 countries during the pandemic. Also based on the factors found in literature we have constructed a system dynamics model that explicitly models the development of societal strains and social mobilisation in order to provide a better quantitative explanation of the emergence of protests. We found that while fast-changing factors are better estimators for ‘when’ civil resistance emerges, slow-changing factors are better estimators of ‘how’ civil resistance manifests itself in terms of the relative intensity of the protests in specific countries.

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Demensi Etnik dalam Kerukunan Umat Beragama di Kota Pontianak Provinsi Kalimantan Barat

Panangkaran Jurnal Penelitian Agama dan Masyarakat ◽

10.14421/panangkaran.2018.0201-01 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Arnis Rachmadhani

Keyword(s):

Ethnic Groups ◽

Social Systems ◽

Negative Influence ◽

Positive Influence ◽

Literature Study ◽

West Kalimantan ◽

The Social ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

Relationship Of ◽

The Relationship

A study of qualitative research with data obtained from interviews, in-depth observation, and literature study was conducted in Pontianak City, West Kalimantan Province, describes the general social interaction in Pontianak City that leads to an associative form of interaction, although there is also a potential that leads to dissociative. Assositive interactions include accommodation in the form of a fairly tolerant attitude of religious life; assimilation in the form of cultural assimilation, especially the assimilation between religion and culture that strengthens the relationship of two things, and which strengthens the relationship between families, where cultural interaction strengthens inter-citizen harmony, especially among religious followers; as well as cooperation in the implementation of cultural activities antaretnik. However, dissociative interactions also occur that is the emergence of competition in the form of contradictions. The social systems in Pontianak influence the harmony between religious and inter-ethnic communities. These social systems are social systems built from ethnic Malay, Dayak, Bugis, Madurese, Javanese, and other ethnic groups. The process of working the social system on interethnic religious harmony in Pontianak City, West Kalimantan Province due to the diversity of ethnic groups that can have positive and negative impacts. Positive influence because strengthening the unity of ethnic intern and its negative influence is able to bring up the problem.

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Sifat-sifat Submodul Prima dan Submodul Prima Lemah

Journal of Mathematics, Computations, and Statistics ◽

10.35580/jmathcos.v2i2.12581 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 183

Author(s):

Hisyam Ihsan ◽

Muhammad Abdy ◽

Samsu Alam B

Keyword(s):

Prime Ideal ◽

Literature Study ◽

Prime Submodules ◽

Unitary Module ◽

Prime Submodule ◽

Definition Of ◽

The Relationship

Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kajian pustaka yang bertujuan untuk mengkaji sifat-sifat submodul prima dan submodul prima lemah serta hubungan antara keduanya. Kajian dimulai dari definisi submodul prima dan submodul prima lemah, selanjutnya dikaji mengenai sifat-sifat dari keduanya. Pada penelitian ini, semua ring yang diberikan adalah ring komutatif dengan unsur kesatuan dan modul yang diberikan adalah modul uniter. Sebagai hasil dari penelitian ini diperoleh beberapa pernyataan yang ekuivalen, misalkan suatu -modul , submodul sejati di dan ideal di , maka ketiga pernyataan berikut ekuivalen, (1) merupakan submodul prima, (2) Setiap submodul tak nol dari -modul memiliki annihilator yang sama, (3) Untuk setiap submodul di , subring di , jika berlaku maka atau . Di lain hal, pada submodul prima lemah jika diberikan suatu -modul, submodul sejati di , maka pernyataan berikut ekuivalen, yaitu (1) Submodul merupakan submodul prima lemah, (2) Untuk setiap , jika maka . Selain itu, didapatkan pula hubungan antara keduanya, yaitu setiap submodul prima merupakan submodul prima lemah.Kata Kunci: Submodul Prima, Submodul Prima Lemah, Ideal Prima. This research is literature study that aims to examine the properties of prime submodules and weakly prime submodules and the relationship between both of them. The study starts from the definition of prime submodules and weakly prime submodules, then reviewed about the properties both of them. Throughout this paper all rings are commutative with identity and all modules are unitary. As the result of this research, obtained several equivalent statements, let be a -module, be a proper submodule of and ideal of , then the following three statetments are equivalent, (1) is a prime submodule, (2) Every nonzero submodule of -module has the same annihilator, (3) For any submodule of , subring of , if then or . In other case, for weakly prime submodules, if given is a unitary -module, be a proper submodule of , then the following statements are equivalent, (1) is a weakly prime submodule, (2) For any , if then . In addition, also found the relationship between both of them, i.e. any prime submodule is weakly prime submodule.Keywords: Prime Submodules, Weakly Prime Submdules, Prime Ideal.

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PSVI-8 Meta-regression Analysis to Determine the Relationship Between Growing Pig Body Weight and Variation

Journal of Animal Science ◽

10.1093/jas/skab054.357 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 218-219

Author(s):

Andres Fernando T Russi ◽

Mike D Tokach ◽

Jason C Woodworth ◽

Joel M DeRouchey ◽

Robert D Goodband ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Body Weight ◽

Regression Analysis ◽

Sample Size ◽

Polynomial Regression ◽

Data Sets ◽

Regression Equations ◽

Prediction Equations ◽

Data Set ◽

Rate Of Increase ◽

The Relationship

Abstract The swine industry has been constantly evolving to select animals with improved performance traits and to minimize variation in body weight (BW) in order to meet packer specifications. Therefore, understanding variation presents an opportunity for producers to find strategies that could help reduce, manage, or deal with variation of pigs in a barn. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted by collecting data from multiple studies and available data sets in order to develop prediction equations for coefficient of variation (CV) and standard deviation (SD) as a function of BW. Information regarding BW variation from 16 papers was recorded to provide approximately 204 data points. Together, these data included 117,268 individually weighed pigs with a sample size that ranged from 104 to 4,108 pigs. A random-effects model with study used as a random effect was developed. Observations were weighted using sample size as an estimate for precision on the analysis, where larger data sets accounted for increased accuracy in the model. Regression equations were developed using the nlme package of R to determine the relationship between BW and its variation. Polynomial regression analysis was conducted separately for each variation measurement. When CV was reported in the data set, SD was calculated and vice versa. The resulting prediction equations were: CV (%) = 20.04 – 0.135 × (BW) + 0.00043 × (BW)2, R2=0.79; SD = 0.41 + 0.150 × (BW) - 0.00041 × (BW)2, R2 = 0.95. These equations suggest that there is evidence for a decreasing quadratic relationship between mean CV of a population and BW of pigs whereby the rate of decrease is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market. Conversely, the rate of increase of SD of a population of pigs is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market.

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Railroad Integration and Uneven Development on the European Periphery, 1870–1910

Social Science History ◽

10.1017/ssh.2021.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 45 (2) ◽

pp. 261-289

Author(s):

Eduard J. Alvarez-Palau ◽

Alfonso Díez-Minguela ◽

Jordi Martí-Henneberg

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Data Set ◽

Per Capita Gdp ◽

Catching Up ◽

Nation States ◽

Railroad Network ◽

Per Capita ◽

European Periphery ◽

The Relationship

AbstractThis study explores the relationship between railroad integration and regional development on the European periphery between 1870 and 1910, based on a regional data set including 291 spatial units. Railroad integration is proxied by railroad density, while per capita GDP is used as an indicator of economic development. The period under study is of particular relevance as it has been associated with the second wave of railroad construction in Europe and also coincides with the industrialization of most of the continent. Overall, we found that railroads had a significant and positive impact on the growth of per capita GDP across Europe. The magnitude of this relationship appears to be relatively modest, but the results obtained are robust with respect to a number of different specifications. From a geographical perspective, we found that railroads had a significantly greater influence on regions located in countries on the northern periphery of Europe than in other outlying areas. They also helped the economies of these areas to begin the process of catching up with the continent’s industrialized core. In contrast, the regions on the southern periphery showed lower levels of economic growth, with this exacerbating the preexisting divergence in economic development. The expansion of the railroad network in them was unable to homogenize the diffusion of economic development and tended to further benefit the regions that were already industrialized. In most of the cases, the capital effect was magnified, and this contributed to the consolidation of newly created nation-states.

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RESTING HEART RATE MODERATES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NEUROPSYCHIATRIC SYMPTOMS, MCI, AND ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igz038.2385 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. S641-S641

Author(s):

Shanna L Burke

Keyword(s):

Alzheimer’S Disease ◽

Alzheimer's Disease ◽

Heart Rate ◽

Relative Risk ◽

Neuropsychiatric Symptoms ◽

Cognitive Status ◽

Resting Heart Rate ◽

Data Set ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Little is known about how resting heart rate moderates the relationship between neuropsychiatric symptoms and cognitive status. This study examined the relative risk of NPS on increasingly severe cognitive statuses and examined the extent to which resting heart rate moderates this relationship. A secondary analysis of the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set was undertaken, using observations from participants with normal cognition at baseline (13,470). The relative risk of diagnosis with a more severe cognitive status at a future visit was examined using log-binomial regression for each neuropsychiatric symptom. The moderating effect of resting heart rate among those who are later diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Alzheimer’s disease (AD) was assessed. Delusions, hallucinations, agitation, depression, anxiety, elation, apathy, disinhibition, irritability, motor disturbance, nighttime behaviors, and appetite disturbance were all significantly associated (p<.001) with an increased risk of AD, and a reduced risk of MCI. Resting heart rate increased the risk of AD but reduced the relative risk of MCI. Depression significantly interacted with resting heart rate to increase the relative risk of MCI (RR: 1.07 (95% CI: 1.00-1.01), p<.001), but not AD. Neuropsychiatric symptoms increase the relative risk of AD but not MCI, which may mean that the deleterious effect of NPS is delayed until later and more severe stages of the disease course. Resting heart rate increases the relative risk of MCI among those with depression. Practitioners considering early intervention in neuropsychiatric symptomology may consider the downstream benefits of treatment considering the long-term effects of NPS.

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Spatial pattern and genetic diversity estimates are linked in stochastic models of population differentiation

Genetics and Molecular Biology ◽

10.1590/s1415-47572000000300007 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 541-544 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho ◽

Mariana Pires de Campos Telles

Keyword(s):

Genetic Diversity ◽

Spatial Pattern ◽

Stochastic Models ◽

Population Differentiation ◽

Real Data ◽

Population Heterogeneity ◽

Data Set ◽

Mantel’S Test ◽

The Relationship ◽

Diversity Estimates

In the present study, we used both simulations and real data set analyses to show that, under stochastic processes of population differentiation, the concepts of spatial heterogeneity and spatial pattern overlap. In these processes, the proportion of variation among and within a population (measured by G ST and 1 - G ST, respectively) is correlated with the slope and intercept of a Mantel's test relating genetic and geographic distances. Beyond the conceptual interest, the inspection of the relationship between population heterogeneity and spatial pattern can be used to test departures from stochasticity in the study of population differentiation.

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Evolution and evolvability: celebrating Darwin 200

Biology Letters ◽

10.1098/rsbl.2008.0639 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 44-46 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

John F.Y Brookfield

Keyword(s):

Genetic Variation ◽

Natural Selection ◽

Time Scales ◽

Evolutionary Change ◽

Adaptive Mutation ◽

Genetic Covariances ◽

The Relationship ◽

The Way

The concept of ‘evolvability’ is increasingly coming to dominate considerations of evolutionary change. There are, however, a number of different interpretations that have been put on the idea of evolvability, differing in the time scales over which the concept is applied. For some, evolvability characterizes the potential for future adaptive mutation and evolution. Others use evolvability to capture the nature of genetic variation as it exists in populations, particularly in terms of the genetic covariances between traits. In the latter use of the term, the applicability of the idea of evolvability as a measure of population's capacity to respond to natural selection rests on one, but not the only, view of the way in which we should envisage the process of natural selection. Perhaps the most potentially confusing aspects of the concept of evolvability are seen in the relationship between evolvability and robustness.

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Intergovernmental Organizations and Foreign Policy Behavior: Some Empirical Findings

American Political Science Review ◽

10.2307/1954893 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 73 (2) ◽

pp. 494-504 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

James M. McCormick ◽

Young W. Kihl

Keyword(s):

Foreign Policy ◽

Data Base ◽

Comparative Research ◽

Intergovernmental Organizations ◽

Data Set ◽

The World ◽

The Relationship ◽

Policy Behavior ◽

High Politics ◽

Foreign Policy Behavior

In this study, we evaluate whether the increase in the number of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) has resulted in their increased use for foreign policy behavior by the nations of the world. This question is examined in three related ways: (1) the aggregate use of IGOs for foreign policy behavior; (2) the relationship between IGO membership and IGO use; and (3) the kinds of states that use IGOs. Our data base consists of the 35 nations in the CREON (Comparative Research on the Events of Nations) data set for the years 1959–1968.The main findings are that IGOs were employed over 60 percent of the time with little fluctuation on a year-by-year basis, that global and “high politics” IGOs were used more often than regional and “low politics” IGOs, that institutional membership and IGO use were generally inversely related, and that the attributes of the states had limited utility in accounting for the use of intergovernmental organizations. Some of the theoretical implications of these findings are then explored.

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Learning from intelligent conversation

IMP Journal ◽

10.1108/imp-12-2015-0070 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 512-539 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Luitzen De Boer ◽

Poul Houman Andersen

Keyword(s):

System Theory ◽

Design Methodology ◽

Historical Analysis ◽

Research Field ◽

Literature Study ◽

Content Type ◽

Narrative Literature ◽

The Relationship ◽

Conceptual Research

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to contribute to further advancing of IMP as a research field by setting up and starting a theoretical conversation between system theory and the IMP. Design/methodology/approach The approach is based on a narrative literature study and conceptual research. Findings The authors find that system theory and cybernetics can be regarded as important sources of inspiration for early IMP research. The authors identify three specific theoretical “puzzles” in system theory that may serve as useful topics for discussion between system theorists and IMP researchers. Originality/value Only a handful of papers have touched upon the relationship between system theory and IMP before. This paper combines a narrative, historical analysis of this relationship with developing specific suggestions for using system theory as a vehicle for further advancement of IMP research.

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On the Relationship between Regional Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Height

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-16-0920.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 30 (22) ◽

pp. 9195-9211 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

John T. Fasullo ◽

Peter R. Gent

Keyword(s):

Time Scales ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Heat Content ◽

Sea Surface Height ◽

Ocean Heat Content ◽

Ocean Dynamics ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Altimeter Data ◽

Model Control ◽

The Relationship

Abstract An accurate diagnosis of ocean heat content (OHC) is essential for interpreting climate variability and change, as evidenced for example by the broad range of hypotheses that exists for explaining the recent hiatus in global mean surface warming. Potential insights are explored here by examining relationships between OHC and sea surface height (SSH) in observations and two recently available large ensembles of climate model simulations from the mid-twentieth century to 2100. It is found that in decadal-length observations and a model control simulation with constant forcing, strong ties between OHC and SSH exist, with little temporal or spatial complexity. Agreement is particularly strong on monthly to interannual time scales. In contrast, in forced transient warming simulations, important dependencies in the relationship exist as a function of region and time scale. Near Antarctica, low-frequency SSH variability is driven mainly by changes in the circumpolar current associated with intensified surface winds, leading to correlations between OHC and SSH that are weak and sometimes negative. In subtropical regions, and near other coastal boundaries, negative correlations are also evident on long time scales and are associated with the accumulated effects of changes in the water cycle and ocean dynamics that underlie complexity in the OHC relationship to SSH. Low-frequency variability in observations is found to exhibit similar negative correlations. Combined with altimeter data, these results provide evidence that SSH increases in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans during the hiatus are suggestive of substantial OHC increases. Methods for developing the applicability of altimetry as a constraint on OHC more generally are also discussed.

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