Forensic Investigation Into Petroleum Products Consumption, Subsidisation and Fiscal Spending in Nigeria by C. E. Alozie (PhD)

This paper analytically investigated petroleum products procurement, volume of consumption, fiscal expenditure on consumption subsidies, the utilisation of domestic crude-oil allocations in local refining production in satisfying consumption, discipline in the approved subsidy expenditure budget. Ex-post ‘facto’ materials were employed. Numerical descriptive statistics on volume of locally produced-supplied to imported products volume ratios, budget deviation indexing for fiscal discipline; simulated ‘produce or import simulation of prior fiscal expenditures. Results indicate that local refining output of petroleum products were partly the major root cause of insufficient source of supply of products procurements which in turn compelled Nigeria to be reliant on importation in satisfying consumption requirements. Domestic crude allocation utilisation for refining production indicates that only about 33 percent of average aggregate expected minimum refined petroleum products yields of average aggregate volume consumption requirements were recorded. Budget discipline is lacking. Gross undersupply of electricity induced constant rise in the consumption of petroleum products. The paper concludes that lack of proper routine maintenance of extant local refineries, production inefficiencies as well as grossly mismanagement of the daily domestic crude-oil allocations were primarily responsible for the huge fiscal subsidies expenditure. Nigeria’s indulgence in fuels importation and negligence of local refineries is tantamount to creating employment in those other refined fuels producing countries and escalating unemployment in Nigeria. T Fiscal spending on subsidies would have funded proper routine TAM and build four new refineries which is financing option that ought to have guaranteed ‘pareto optimality’ in the economy.

Fiscal Decentralization and Fiscal Multiplier in China

A fundamental aspect of China’s transition to a market economy is the change in fiscal decentralization marked by the tax reform in 1993. This paper examines the effect of revenue and expenditure decentralization and their divergences on fiscal spending multipliers in China using nationally aggregate and provincial-level data from 1978 to 2017. Our investigations show that expenditure decentralization weakens the efficacy of spending policies, while revenue decentralization enhances the efficacy. Moreover, the divergence of revenue and expenditure decentralization has significantly decreased the provincial spending multiplier, while its effect on the aggregate spending multiplier is insignificant. The provincial results are robust to the inclusion of off-budgetary expenditure and revenue, using different estimates of multipliers and different measures of fiscal decentralization, considering from a long-run perspective, and addressing the endogeneity issue.

Unpacking the ‘green’ recovery spending: an assessment of likely implications on greenhouse gas emissions towards 2030 for key emitters

This paper analyses how fiscal stimulus spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic supports the low-carbon transition. We developed a new framework to categorize rescue and recovery spending measures according to their level of greenness and their type of expected impact on greenhouse gas emissions. This framework allows to better capture how measures’ emission impacts may unfold over time and to identify the share of fiscal spending missing robust conditions or incentives to be considered low-carbon. We assess nearly 2,500 measures announced by 26 emitters as of May 2021, representing around 65% of global GHG emissions in 2018. Our findings show that the largest share (35%) of spending with potential GHG emission implications went to measures that supported the status quo in the respective countries when there were low-carbon alternatives. Our assessment reveals the different magnitudes to which the emitters have missed the opportunity for a green recovery. While low-carbon spending is also significative in size (22%) across countries, almost two-thirds of it can be considered enabling or catalytic in nature and will rather unfold its impact over time. This fiscal spending will trigger transformational change over time but will not necessarily lead to direct emission reduction impacts before 2030.

The Heterogeneous Impacts of Human Capital on Green Total Factor Productivity: Regional Diversity Perspective

That human capital improves the efficiency of Green Total Factor Productivity has been established in research fields, but the heterogeneous effects of human capital on GTFP and its sustainable mechanisms are unclear. This study examines the effects of human capital accumulation, fiscal spending on education, and innovation on GTFP efficiency under spatial and temporal diversity. Employing panel data from 30 provinces from 2001 to 2018 in China, we analyzed the dynamic and static efficiency of GTFP in different regions by three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA). The heterogeneous effects of human capital on GTFP were explored through Tobit regression. Results reveal that the average value of GTFP efficiency is an inverted U-shape and the presence of significant t geography differences. Human capital accumulation and fiscal spending on education have positive effects on GTFP efficiency; however, innovation negatively affects it. At the same time, marketization growth decreases the positive influence of human capital and education on GTFP efficiency. While, this effect was not observed regarding innovation, the implication of these results concerning the human capital heterogeneous effects of GTFP efficiency in a different geographic context. Establishing a fair and transparent system can reduce the endowments gap and effectively promote GTFP efficiency in developing countries.

Ireland faces economic uncertainty with OECD reforms

Significance This framework laid out two pillars of reform. Pillar One would see large companies liable for tax in the end-market jurisdiction where their goods or services are used or consumed. Pillar Two would set a minimum tax rate of 15%. Impacts Ireland will probably support the reforms by October, and in return it may get some concessions over implementation or sectoral coverage. Reduced corporate tax revenue may result in tighter fiscal spending, which would play into the hands of the opposition Sinn Fein. The corporate tax proposals come at a particularly bad time for the Irish economy, which is already facing the consequences of Brexit.

New Chile lockdown will add to wider uncertainties

Significance At the same time, a new Central Bank report suggests that, despite a sharp liquidity-driven economic rebound this year, the country faces a lean medium-term outlook. Impacts Lack of compliance with lockdowns has left the government with few tools, other than vaccination, for controlling the pandemic. Preliminary estimates suggest that fiscal spending will rise by a massive 25% in 2021. Monetary policy will face the challenge of balancing inflation risks against the lagging recovery of employment.

The Dynamic Impact of Agricultural Fiscal Expenditures and Gross Agricultural Output on Poverty Reduction: A VAR Model Analysis

China was the first developing country to achieve the poverty eradication target of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 10 years ahead of schedule. Its past approach has been, mainly, to allocate more fiscal spending to rural areas, while strengthening accountability for poverty alleviation. However, some literature suggests that poor rural areas still lack the endogenous dynamics for sustainable growth. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, based on data from 1990 to 2019, we find that fiscal spending plays a much more significant role in reducing the poverty ratio than agricultural development. When poverty alleviation is treated as an administrative task, each poor village must complete the spending of top-down poverty alleviation funds within a time frame that is usually shorter than that required for successful specialty agriculture. As a result, the greater the pressure of poverty eradication and the more funds allocated, the more poverty alleviation projects become an anchor for accountability, and the more local governments’ consideration of industry cycles and input–output analysis give way to formalism, homogeneity, and even complicity. We suggest using the leverage of fiscal funds to direct more resources to productive uses, thus guiding future rural revitalization in a more sustainable direction.