The Iris Effect: A Review

This study reviews the research of the past 20-years on the role of anvil cirrus in the Earth’s climate – research initiated by Lindzen et al. (Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 82:417-432, 2001). The original study suggested that the anvil cirrus would shrink with warming, which was estimated to induce longwave cooling for the Earth. This is referred to as the iris effect since the areal change hypothetically resembles the light control by the human eye’s iris. If the effect is strong enough, it exerts a significant negative climate feedback which stabilizes tropical temperatures and limits climate sensitivity. Initial responses to Lindzen et al. (Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 82:417-432, 2001) denied the existence and effectiveness of the iris effect. Assessment of the debatable issues in these responses will be presented later in this review paper. At this point, the strong areal reduction of cirrus with warming appears very clearly in both climate models and satellite observations. Current studies found that the iris effect may not only come from the decreased cirrus outflow due to increased precipitation efficiency, but also from concentration of cumulus cores over warmer areas (the so-called aggregation effect). Yet, different opinions remain as to the radiative effect of cirrus clouds participating in the iris effect. For the iris effect to be most important, it must involve cirrus clouds that are not as opaque for visible radiation as they are for infrared radiation. However, current climate models often simulate cirrus clouds that are opaque in both visible and infrared radiation. This issue requires thorough examination as it seems to be opposed to conventional wisdom based on explicit observations. This paper was written in the hope of stimulating more effort to carefully evaluate these important issues.

The Above-Anvil Cirrus Plume: An Important Severe Weather Indicator in Visible and Infrared Satellite Imagery

Intense tropopause-penetrating updrafts and gravity wave breaking generate cirrus plumes that reside above the primary anvil. These “above anvil cirrus plumes” (AACPs) exhibit unique temperature and reflectance patterns in satellite imagery, best recognized within 1-min “super rapid scan” observations. AACPs are often evident during severe weather outbreaks and, due to their importance, have been studied for 35+ years. Despite this research, there is uncertainty regarding why some storms produce AACPs but other nearby storms do not, exactly how severe are storms with AACPs, and how AACP identification can assist with severe weather warning. These uncertainties are addressed through analysis of severe weather reports, NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) severe weather warnings, metrics of updraft cloud height, intensity, and rotation derived from Doppler radars, as well as ground-based total lightning observations for 4583 storms observed by GOES super rapid scanning, 405 of which produced an AACP. Datasets are accumulated throughout storm lifetimes through radar object tracking. It is found that 1) AACP storms generated 14 times the number of reports per storm compared to non-AACP storms; 2) AACPs appeared, on average, 31 min in advance of severe weather; 3) 73% of significant severe weather reports were produced by AACP storms; 4) AACP recognition can provide comparable warning lead time to that provided by a forecaster; and 5) the presence of an AACP can increase forecaster confidence that large hail will occur. Given that AACPs occur throughout the world, and most of the world is not observed by Doppler radar, AACP-based severe storm identification and warning would be extremely helpful for protecting lives and property.

On the Development of Above-Anvil Cirrus Plumes in Extratropical Convection

Expansive cirrus clouds present above the anvils of extratropical convection have been observed in satellite and aircraft-based imagery for several decades. Despite knowledge of their occurrence, the precise mechanisms and atmospheric conditions leading to their formation and maintenance are not entirely known. Here, the formation of these cirrus “plumes” is examined using a combination of satellite imagery, four-dimensional ground-based radar observations, assimilated atmospheric states from a state-of-the-art reanalysis, and idealized numerical simulations with explicitly resolved convection. Using data from 20 recent events (2013–present), it is found that convective cores of storms with above-anvil cirrus plumes reach altitudes 1–6 km above the tropopause. Thus, it is likely that these clouds represent the injection of cloud material into the lower stratosphere. Comparison of storms with above-anvil cirrus plumes and observed tropopause-penetrating convection without plumes reveals an association with large vector differences between the motion of a storm and the environmental wind in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), suggesting that gravity wave breaking and/or stretching of the tropopause-penetrating cloud are/is more prevalent in plume-producing storms. A weak relationship is found between plume occurrence and the stability of the lower stratosphere (or tropopause structure), and no relationship is found with the duration of stratospheric penetration or stratospheric humidity. Idealized model simulations of tropopause-penetrating convection with small and large magnitudes of storm-relative wind in the UTLS are found to reproduce the observationally established storm-relative wind relationship and show that frequent gravity wave breaking is the primary mechanism responsible for plume formation.

Examining Deep Convective Cloud Evolution Using Total Lightning, WSR-88D, and GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Datasets*

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-14 (GOES-14) Imager operated in 1-min Super Rapid Scan Operations for GOES-R (SRSOR) mode during summer and fall of 2012 to emulate the high temporal resolution sampling of the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The current GOES operational scan interval is 15–30 min, which is too coarse to capture details important for severe convective storm forecasting including 1) when indicators of a severe storm such as rapid cloud-top cooling, overshooting tops, and above-anvil cirrus plumes first appear; 2) how satellite-observed cloud tops truly evolve over time; and 3) how satellite cloud-top observations compare with radar and lightning observations at high temporal resolution. In this paper, SRSOR data, radar, and lightning observations are used to analyze five convective storms, four of which were severe, to address these uncertainties. GOES cloud-top cooling, increased lightning flash rates, and peak precipitation echo tops often preceded severe weather, signaling rapid intensification of the storm updraft. Near the time of several severe hail or damaging wind events, GOES cloud-top temperatures and radar echo tops were warming rapidly, which indicated variability in the storm updraft that could have allowed the hail and wind gusts to reach the surface. Above-anvil cirrus plumes were another prominent indicator of impending severe weather. Detailed analysis of storms throughout the 2012 SRSOR period indicates that 57% of the plume-producing storms were severe and 85% of plumes from severe storms appeared before a severe weather report with an average lead time of 18 min, 9 min earlier than what would be observed by GOES operational scanning.

The Airborne Cloud–Aerosol Transport System: Overview and Description of the Instrument and Retrieval Algorithms

The Airborne Cloud–Aerosol Transport System (ACATS) is a Doppler wind lidar system that has recently been developed for atmospheric science capabilities at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). ACATS is also a high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL), uniquely capable of directly resolving backscatter and extinction properties of a particle from a high-altitude aircraft. Thus, ACATS simultaneously measures optical properties and motion of cloud and aerosol layers. ACATS has flown on the NASA ER-2 during test flights over California in June 2012 and science flights during the Wallops Airborne Vegetation Experiment (WAVE) in September 2012. This paper provides an overview of the ACATS method and instrument design, describes the ACATS HSRL retrieval algorithms for cloud and aerosol properties, and demonstrates the data products that will be derived from the ACATS data using initial results from the WAVE project. The HSRL retrieval algorithms developed for ACATS have direct application to future spaceborne missions, such as the Cloud–Aerosol Transport System (CATS) to be installed on the International Space Station (ISS). Furthermore, the direct extinction and particle wind velocity retrieved from the ACATS data can be used for science applications such as dust or smoke transport and convective outflow in anvil cirrus clouds.

Mammatus Clouds as a Response to Cloud-Base Radiative Heating

Mammatus clouds are the pouchlike lobes seen hanging from mid- to high-level clouds. They can look quite dramatic, but they are also interesting because they provide clues to what controls anvil cirrus dynamic evolution. Thus far, the most commonly accepted explanation for observed subsidence of mammatus lobes is that they are driven by evaporative cooling of precipitation, accelerated by mixing with dry subcloud air. Here, an alternative explanation is proposed: radiative temperature contrasts between cloud base and the lower troposphere destabilize cloudy air to create a rapidly deepening mixed layer, which creates positively buoyant intrusions of dry air into the cloud interior; mammatus lobes are just the descending branch of the resulting circulations. In this regard, mammatus cloud fields might be considered an upside-down analog to the radiatively driven formation of “cloud holes” seen at the tops of stratocumulus layers.

On the importance of small ice crystals in tropical anvil cirrus

In situ measurements of ice crystal concentrations and sizes made with aircraft instrumentation over the past two decades have often indicated the presence of numerous relatively small (< 50 μm diameter) crystals in cirrus clouds. Further, these measurements frequently indicate that small crystals account for a large fraction of the extinction in cirrus clouds. The fact that the instruments used to make these measurements, such as the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP) and the Cloud Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS), ingest ice crystals into the sample volume through inlets has led to suspicion that the indications of numerous small-crystals could be artifacts of large-crystal shattering on the instrument inlets. We present new aircraft measurements in anvil cirrus sampled during the Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) campaign with the 2-Dimensional Stereo (2D-S) probe, which detects particles as small as 10 μm. The 2D-S has detector "arms" instead of an inlet tube. Since the 2D-S probe surfaces are much further from the sample volume than is the case for the instruments with inlets, it is expected that 2D-S will be less susceptible to shattering artifacts. In addition, particle inter-arrival times are used to identify and remove shattering artifacts that occur even with the 2D-S probe. The number of shattering artifacts identified by the 2D-S interarrival time analysis ranges from a negligible contribution to an order of magnitude or more enhancement in apparent ice concentration over the natural ice concentration, depending on the abundance of large crystals and the natural small-crystal concentration. The 2D-S measurements in tropical anvil cirrus suggest that natural small-crystal concentrations are typically one to two orders of magnitude lower than those inferred from CAS. The strong correlation between the CAS/2D-S ratio of small-crystal concentrations and large-crystal concentration suggests that the discrepancy is likely caused by shattering of large crystals on the CAS inlet. We argue that past measurements with CAS in cirrus with large crystals present may contain errors due to crystal shattering, and past conclusions derived from these measurements may need to be revisited. Further, we present correlations between CAS spurious concentration and 2D-S large-crystal mass from spatially uniform anvil cirrus sampling periods as an approximate guide for estimating quantitative impact of large-crystal shattering on CAS concentrations in previous datasets. We use radiative transfer calculations to demonstrate that in the maritime anvil cirrus sampled during TC4, small crystals indicated by 2D-S contribute relatively little cloud extinction, radiative forcing, or radiative heating in the anvils, regardless of anvil age or vertical location in the clouds. While 2D-S ice concentrations in fresh anvil cirrus may often exceed 1 cm−3, and are observed to exceed 10 cm−3 in turrets, they are typically ~0.1 cm−3 and rarely exceed 1 cm−3 (<1.4% of the time) in aged anvil cirrus. We hypothesize that isolated occurrences of higher ice concentrations in aged anvil cirrus may be caused by ice nucleation driven by either small-scale convection or gravity waves. It appears that the numerous small crystals detrained from convective updrafts do not persist in the anvil cirrus sampled during TC-4.

On the importance of small ice crystals in tropical anvil cirrus

In situ measurements of ice crystal concentrations and sizes made with aircraft instrumentation over the past two decades have often indicated the presence of numerous relatively small (<50 μm diameter) crystals in cirrus clouds. Further, these measurements frequently indicate that small crystals account for a large fraction of the extinction in cirrus clouds. The fact that the instruments used to make these measurements, such as the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP) and the Cloud Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS), ingest ice crystals into the sample volume through inlets has led to suspicion that the indications of numerous small-crystals could be artifacts of large-crystal shattering on the instrument inlets. We present new aircraft measurements in anvil cirrus sampled during the Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) campaign with the 2-Dimensional Stereo (2D-S) probe, which detects particles as small as 10 μm. The 2D-S has detector "arms" instead of an inlet tube, and therefore is expected to be less susceptible to shattering artifacts than instruments such as CAS. In addition, particle inter-arrival times are used to identify and remove shattering artifacts that occur even with the 2D-S probe. The number of shattering artifacts identified by the 2D-S interarrival time analysis ranges from a negligible contribution to an order of magnitude or more enhancement in apparent ice concentration over the natural ice concentration, depending on the abundance of large crystals and the natural small-crystal concentration. The 2D-S measurements in tropical anvil cirrus suggest that natural small-crystal concentrations are typically one to two orders of magnitude lower than those inferred from CAS. The strong correlation between the CAS/2D-S ratio of small-crystal concentrations and large-crystal concentration suggests that the discrepancy is likely caused by shattering of large crystals on the CAS inlet. We argue that past measurements with CAS in cirrus with large crystals present may contain errors due to crystal shattering, and past conclusions derived from these measurements may need to be revisited. Further, we present correlations between CAS spurious concentration and 2D-S large-crystal mass from spatially uniform anvil cirrus sampling periods as an approximate guide for estimating quantitative impact of large-crystal shattering on CAS concentrations in previous datasets. We use radiative transfer calculations to demonstrate that in the maritime anvil cirrus sampled during TC4, small crystals indicated by 2D-S contribute relatively little to cloud extinction, radiative forcing, or radiative heating in the anvils, regardless of anvil age or vertical location in the clouds. While 2D-S ice concentrations in fresh anvil cirrus may often exceed 1 cm−3, and are observed to exceed 10 cm−3 in turrets, they are typically ~0.1 cm−3 and rarely exceed 1 cm−3 (<1.4% of the time) in aged anvil cirrus. It appears that the numerous small crystals detrained from convective updrafts do not persist in the anvil cirrus sampled during TC-4. We hypothesize that isolated occurrences of higher ice concentrations in aged anvil cirrus are caused by ice nucleation driven by gravity waves.