What’s happening to the locomotive of global economy, or The myths about the recovery of China

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused irreparable damage to all economies. Coping with the consequences by the leading players in the global economy is only expected. However, the worlds leading organizations have been trumpeting about overcoming the crisis in China. The aim of the research is to analyze the current state of the Chinese economy and answer the question whether it has overcome all the crisis phenomena. As part of the study, the authors analyzed indicators such as GDP, debt level, level of domestic demand, activity in the financial market and the MA market, as well as technological and social policies of China and the structure of trade. For the analysis of quantitative indicators, a combination of comparison and classification methods, media scanning, and crowdsourcing was used. The information base was grounded on annual reference books published by official institutions in Сhina, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, statistical data from international publications devoted to Chinese economy. The analysis showed the presence of trigger situations in the stock market, in the market for innovative investments and the banking sector. The state of the credit system is also a matter of concern. The authors have proven that enthusiastic statements about the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy are more an encouraging myth than a fait accompli. Today, China is only at the beginning of its recovery from the crisis caused by the pandemic. Will it be able to become the locomotive of global economic growth again, as in 2008? The answer to this question remains open.

Commercial Buildings in Town. The Influence of Discount Shops on the Trade Structure of a Small Town

Changes taking place in the spatial structure of trade in cities have been very dynamic in recent decades. The goal of the research was to determine the dynamics and direction of changes in shaping the traditional commercial structure of small towns, in the context of discount shops location. The subject matter of the research constituted more than ten towns in southern Poland. Traditional shops located there were analysed in terms of their location, the profile and length of their activity. Studies on global trade development processes are available, as well as detailed research results on individual trade assumptions. On the other hand, there is a research gap regarding studies involving the location of commercial buildings, especially in small towns. The research results are a valuable source of information for representatives of various scientific disciplines as well as city authorities. The presented research provides knowledge and constitutes the basis for further research for representatives of various research fields. The areas with the most intensive commercial activity in the last 30 years were correlated with the number of inhabitants. For a selected group of towns, their binding urban planning documentation was verified with respect to specifications facilitating or excluding the establishment of discount shops. The conclusions reached on the basis of the research do not confirm a popular view that discount shops have a negative effect on urban space. The performed analyses indicate that there is no simple relation between a discount shop location and the decreasing number of traditional shops in the investigated cities. The presented research results gain an additional advantage—they form an archive of the development of commerce structure in towns in the period starting with the fall of the centrally planned economy and finishing with the COVID–19 pandemic. The presented material forms a basis for further urban studies which will use the experience gained at this stage

A New Class of Revealed Comparative Advantage Indexes

This paper draws upon a critical analysis of the three RCA indexes in Vollrath (1991) to propose a new class of RCA indexes. The baseline RCA index in this new class rests on the overall structure of trade, is symmetric, avoids size bias and is compatible with the Kunimoto-Vollrath principle. Possible modifications of the baseline RCA index are subsequently suggested to take into account GDP per capita data and to use adjusted trade data with the aim of better measuring comparative advantages. These modified versions together with the baseline RCA index give rise to a whole new class of RCA indexes. An application to the Euro area indicates that this new class is able to rank countries according to their respective levels of comparative advantages in a more consistent way than alternative RCA indexes. Furthermore, the new class of RCA indexes provides second-best solutions for time stationarity and the desirable distributional characteristics of an RCA index.

Russia — Brazil: approval of the strategic partnership

The article examines the state and prospects for the development of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Brazil. The investment component of bilateral economic relations and military-technical cooperation are considered. Quantitative indicators on the volumes and dynamics of bilateral foreign trade turnover, the structure of trade operations are given. The emphasis is placed on the strategic partnership and technological alliance of the two countries declared at the interstate level. The reasons hindering the development of bilateral cooperation are analyzed. The areas where cooperation would contribute to the creation of technological alliances are highlighted. The peculiarities of Brazil`s foreign trade policy are studied, including in relation to Russian products imported by the country. In comparative terms, the main economic indicators of the two countries are given. In conclusion, the views aimed at strengthening and expanding Russian-Brazilian economic relations are expressed. The relevance of the topic is due to the approved in 2018 the national project «International cooperation and Export», aimed at increasing Russian non-primary non-energy exports.

Cuba – Asia y Oceanía: historical relations

The countries of Asia and Oceania occupy a prominent place in Cuba’s foreign policy orientation, which is especially relevant today when the country is facing another strengthening of restrictions by the United States, as well as trying to overcome the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. The author analyzes the history and potential of Cuba’s cooperation with Asia, which is the most dynamic region in the world economy, in order to demonstrate the level of existing interaction and the prospects of emerging opportunities. The article provides an overview of the process of Cuba’s establishing diplomatic relations with the countries of Asia and Oceania, reflecting on both the incentives and the difficulties that accompanied this dynamic. The author looks at different areas of cooperation with the countries of the region, including health care (exchange of medical professionals, support by sharing medical brigades, shipments of diagnostic equipment and medications), agriculture and food security, academic exchange, etc. Particular attention is paid to trade, where economic ties with key partners are examined, taking into account the structure of trade. In conclusion, the research stresses the essential importance of developing already consolidated and trending relations between Cuba and the Asia-Pacific region, both with its “giants” and with the smaller states. This thesis is also supported by political preconditions, in particular by the fact that, from the political perspective, the countries of the region have expressed support and agreement with Cuba in many bilateral and multilateral aspects, especially those related to the condemnation of the U.S. economic and financial embargo against Cuba.

Orchid Obscurity: Understanding Domestic Trade in Wild-Harvested Orchids in Viet Nam

Unsustainable and illegal wildlife trade is a well-known conservation issue, but there are still large gaps in our understanding of how trade chains operate for the majority of over-exploited wildlife products. In particular, the large-scale global plant trade is under-reported and under-researched, and this is even more pronounced when the trade takes place within a country’s borders. A clear example is the trade in orchids, all species of which are listed by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Although countries such as Viet Nam are known hotspots for the large-scale collection of wild orchids for the international horticultural trade, little is known about how plants move from the wild to the end-consumer, what role is played by domestic markets and the sustainability of this trade. We use a mixed-methods approach to determine the structure of trade chains for orchids in key trading areas of Northern Viet Nam, and use a thematic framework to identify five groups of actors trading wild-harvested orchids. Trade occurs both domestically and internationally, underpinned by demand for rare, wild plants. An important first step to address the illegal and unsustainable plant trade is to recognise it as a major and growing conservation issue, and develop diverse approaches that consider the complexity of the supply chains involved. It is imperative that the scale and process of domestic trade is understood, and its impact on long term conservation of these species assessed to make more informed decisions about effective interventions that take into account the full supply chain.

Bulgarian International Trade in the 2004-2019 Period

The article aims to analyze the changes in Bulgarian international trade for the 2004- 2019 period. Firstly, the general trends in dynamics of the country’s trade flows in terms of value and volume are summarized, which is followed by assessment of the economy’s dependence on international trade. The study then presents an analysis of the direction of Bulgarian trade and discusses the changes in the commodity structure of trade by analyzing the share of primary and manufactured products. The conclusion summarizes the main implications from the analysis and draws some recommendations regarding some possible measures in Bulgaria’s international trade policy.

Russia-China economic imbalance will deepen

Significance Despite high-level commitments, economic links do not correspond to the commitments to political cooperation expressed by Moscow and Beijing. The structure of trade and other economic relations is asymmetric and the failure of several promises and projects demonstrates that political support for bilateral commercial ventures is limited. Impacts Cooperation with China will benefit dominant Russian players: state-owned enterprises and monopolies and well-connected private companies. Russia's role will grow in infrastructure projects linking China with European markets as Beijing makes more use of the Northern Sea Route. Competition in third-party markets for exports of arms and nuclear technology may negatively influence Russian-Chinese political ties.

Forecast of International Trade of Lithium Carbonate Products in Importing Countries and Small-Scale Exporting Countries

As the raw material of lithium-ion batteries, lithium carbonate plays an important role in the development of new energy field. Due to the extremely uneven distribution of lithium resources in the world, the security of supply in countries with less say would be greatly threatened if trade restrictions or other accidents occurred in large-scale exporting countries. It is of great significance to help these countries find new partners based on the existing trade topology. This study uses the link prediction method, based on the perspective of the topological structure of trade networks in various countries and trade rules, and eliminates the influence of large-scale lithium carbonate exporting countries on the lithium carbonate trade of other countries, to find potential lithium carbonate trade links among importing and small-scale exporting countries, and summarizes three trade rules: (1) in potential relationships involving two net importers, a relationship involving either China or the Netherlands is more likely to occur; (2) for all potential relationships, a relationship that actually occurred for more than two years in the period in 2009–2018 is more likely to occur in the future; and (3) potential relationships pairing a net exporter with a net importer are more likely to occur than other country combinations. The results show that over the next five to six years, Denmark and Italy, Netherlands and South Africa, Turkey and USA are most likely to have a lithium carbonate trading relationship, while Slovenia and USA, and Belgium and Thailand are the least likely to trade lithium carbonate. Through this study, we can strengthen the supply security of lithium carbonate resources in international trade, and provide international trade policy recommendations for the governments of importing countries and small-scale exporting countries.