Modeling of COVID-19 Pandemic vis-à-vis Some Socio-Economic Factors

The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the socio-economic status of countries around the world should not be underestimated, when we consider the role it has played in various countries. Many people were unemployed, many households were careful about their spending, and a greater social divide in the population emerged in 14 different countries from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and from Africa (that is, in developed and developing countries) for which we have considered the epidemiological data on the spread of infection during the first and second waves, as well as their socio-economic data. We established a mathematical relationship between Theil and Gini indices, then we investigated the relationship between epidemiological data and socio-economic determinants, using several machine learning and deep learning methods. High correlations were observed between some of the socio-economic and epidemiological parameters and we predicted three of the socio-economic variables in order to validate our results. These results show a clear difference between the first and the second wave of the pandemic, confirming the impact of the real dynamics of the epidemic’s spread in several countries and the means by which it was mitigated.

The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Political Situation in France before 2022 Elections

The article explores the political situation in modern France the year before the next presidential election. It is revealed that during Emmanuel Macron’s presidency, a social divide between wealthy and poor social groups has taken root in the country manifested in the “yellow vests” movement and a wide-range public disagreement with the reforms proposed by the government. The negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which overlapped with the previous contradictions and aggravated them, is discussed. The article also shows that, apart from the “National Rally”, no other political forces now represent a real opposition to Macron’s policy, thus helping him to keep relatively high chances for re-election. This is especially true in case of two traditional parties – the Republicans and the Socialists – which have suffered from a profound internal crisis. In conclusion, regarding a likely contest between Macron and Le Pen in 2022, prospects of changes in domestic and foreign policy of France after the election are formulated. The author concludes that even in the “Le Pen wins” scenario, any innovations will have a limited impact, taking into account the role of continuity in the French state policy and the growing moderation of the far right platform.

The Construction of States and Societies in the Sahel

Today, there is a threatening divide between state and societies in Sahelian countries. Societies have become increasingly diversified and are permeated by growing divisions. In contrast, the states are relatively standardized. They are partly a legacy of the colonial legacy of the despotic state, but they also developed some original traits—for example, a very specific bureaucratic culture and a quasi-private monopolization by a business-oriented political elite. In a context of aid dependency and elite capture, Sahelian states are today confronted with widespread distrust on the part of their citizens and a serious crisis in relation to the delivery of state services. The social divide, the bias of development aid, the weakness of the political elites, and the failure of electoral democracy have paved the way for the rise of anti-Western and anti-state Islamic fundamentalism, and for politico-religious and politico-ethnic entrepreneurs.

Identity, Beliefs, and Political Conflict

We present a theory of identity politics that builds on two ideas. First, when policy conflict renders a certain social divide—economic or cultural—salient, a voter identifies with her economic or cultural group. Second, the voter slants her beliefs toward the stereotype of the group she identifies with. We obtain three implications. First, voters’ beliefs are polarized along the distinctive features of salient groups. Second, if the salience of cultural policies increases, cultural conflict rises, redistributive conflict falls, and polarization becomes more correlated across issues. Third, economic shocks hurting conservative voters may trigger a switch to cultural identity, causing these voters to demand less redistribution. We discuss U.S. survey evidence in light of these implications.

Life among the Econ: 50 years on

Almost 50 years ago, the Swedish econographer Axel Leijonhufvud (1973) wrote a seminal study on the Econ tribe titled ‘Life among the Econ.’ This study revisits the Econ and reports on their current state. Life has gotten more complicated since those bygone days. The cult of math modl-ing has spread far and wide, so that even lay Econs practice it. Fifty years ago the Econ used to say ‘Modl-ing is everything.’ Now they say ‘Modl-ing is the only thing.’ The math priesthood has been joined by a priesthood of economagicians. The fundamental social divide between Micro and Macro sub-tribes persists, but it has been diluted by a new doctrine of micro foundations. The Econ remain a fractious and argumentative tribe.

Social disintegration in Hungary from change of regime until present day in the light of self-sufficient farming

Income distribution reveals individuals who are the most successful making a significant income and the ones who are earning less. This distribution also shows the ratio of high and low incomes, and how both relate to the total income of all citizens. We examine the change of income and earnings over time in Hungary after the regime change of the 1990s. The country has struggled with difficulties of the capitalist system, which caused a significant social divide over the past 30 years. In addition to the continuous thinning of the middle class, the proportion of the lagging part of the society has swelled considerably. On the long run, this phenomenon not only a hindered the economic growth, but also represented an obstacle to meeting the basic needs of a large segment of population. Subsistence farming can provide an income supplement to the lagging strata and can support mitigation of the increasing effects of climate change by creating an ecologically sustainable and flexibly designed mosaic production structure. Our study should serve as a warning and support for both developed countries with advanced economic-social system and developing countries, as well.

Challenges in combatting female genital mutilation: narratives of black Sub-Saharan African (BSSA) women in the English west Midlands region

Purpose It is believed that more than 120 million women have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM) and more than 2 million young girls are at risk of undergoing FGM. FGM is practiced in different parts of the world. With globalisation and the increased movement of people across the globe, FGM is now a global problem. While ending FGM remains a priority, the approaches and strategies being used have generated contested views across the social divide. The purpose of this study is to explore the challenges in combatting FGM as experienced by Black Sub-Saharan African (BSSA) women in Diaspora. Design/methodology/approach This qualitative study used a phenomenological approach. Narratives were collected from 40 BSSA women from 20 Sub-Saharan African countries living in the English West Midlands region. A thematic approach underpinned by the four phases of data analysis in the Silences Framework were used to analyse the data. Findings The research study found that stigmatisation of survivors, utilisation of graphic images in FGM awareness, exclusion of practising communities’ gatekeepers in FGM interventions, conflation of religion and FGM practice and obsession with securing a conviction were obstacles in combating FGM. Diaspora community-driven studies exploring FGM and contested notions in addressing it from women perspectives are scarce. Originality/value This study pulls together the experiences of BSSA women and their perspectives on contested notions in combating FGM in the UK. The debate asserts the growing need to consider gender sensitive radical interventions, which involves educating perpetrators and gatekeepers among FGM practising communities.

The Occurrence of Conflicts and the Social Divide Do They Affect the Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Fragile Countries?

The article is an empirical analysis of the relationship between social divide, the occurrence of conflict and economic growth. By examining the impact of the social divide and conflict on the economic growth of six countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as the effects of predicted variables conflict and economic growth on the social divide, we use ARDL models from the econometric perspective to study the link between conflicts and growth then the Generalized Moments Method (GMM) to solve the endogeneity problem of our main variables and, this from dynamic panel data relating to the period 1980- 2008. The results reveal that conflict destroys economic growth and conversely, economic growth creates new social divides that increase the opportunity for conflict and depress activity. The intensity of the conflicts in these countries seems to be able to project fragile economies more quickly on trajectories which lead them less towards their level of long-term equilibrium growth. Indeed, conflict assessment should be a central concern of development economists for the sake of economic recovery. Finally, the poor performance in terms of growth cannot be blamed on the conflicts whose exacerbation is the cause, but must lead decision-makers to reflect on the structural causes.

Home Gardening and the Social Divide of Suburban Space: Methodological Proposal for the Spatial Analysis of a Social Practice in the Greater Paris Urban Area

This paper explores home gardening geography in metropolitan outskirts, seen as a major asset and challenge of the alternative suburban city model. Studies that estimate the domestic production of backyard gardens are scarce, but they all confirm the persistence of an ancient and “ordinary” phenomenon still firmly rooted in the food landscape of the globalised North cities. To fill a gap in European alternative urban and food systems studies, we focus on the case of two subsectors of the extended suburban belt of greater Paris agglomeration. We designed and performed a spatial analysis protocol that differentiates vegetable garden types to test spatial relationships between environmental and intrinsic factors and assess clustering patterns. We had to overcome several methodological barriers by building an original vegetable gardens database and applying distinct qualitative and quantitative methods. Our results show spatial home gardening patterns differentiation at three intertwined levels: At the micro-level of domestic space (according to the size and share of vegetable plots); at the house block level (according to their socio-economic and built environment profile); and at the level of the housing estates or urban agglomeration (according to the geography of social specialisation).