explanatory hypothesis
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2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 128-155
Author(s):  
Майя Андреевна Шмидт

This article looks at time banking ­– a system of exchange in which people trade services with one another using time instead of money as currency. Time banking is framed from a social work perspective as a social innovation that contributes to poverty alleviation and increasing inclusion. However, most such organizations fail to institutionalize as care providers and fail within the first three years. In this paper, I discuss a rare success story—a time bank in Nizhny Novgorod, the fourth largest city in Russia—which has been functioning for over 15 years and positioned itself as a non-charitable organization. I engage with sharing economy studies—a growing but ambiguous field—to explain the success of the time bank in Nizhny Novgorod. Research in the sharing economy has mostly concentrated on two extreme cases: business-to-customer operations or grassroots communities practicing radical alternatives to market exchange. The case studies have been united by an assumption that sharing economy organizations would generate social capital. However, there has been limited evidence to support this claim. In this article, I aim to test this hypothesis and explore whether the informal networks, norms of reciprocity and trust that are fostered among members of the Nizhny Novgorod time bank are the factors that explain the sustainability of this association. The study is informed by 22 in-depth interviews with the gatekeepers and members of this community. In the interviews, I paid attention to the socio-demographic characteristics of the participants and the structure of their social capital; the characteristics of the mode of exchange practiced in the community (the volume, direction, and range of services, the relatedness to professional activities and other spheres of life); their value set and worldview (egalitarianism, altruism, justice); and indicators of generalized trust. Results revealed that time bankers do not tend to create strong and sustainable relationships outside of the framework of the exchange. I put forward the following explanatory hypothesis: the calculativeness of time bankers, the market-driven valuations of ‘egalitarian’ service exchange and a unilateral attitude to the exchange are in conflict with a longing for Gemeinschaft—a community with strong bonding interdependence based on the norms of mutuality. This association failed to provide the conditions for generalized trust to emerge. The attempt to simultaneously create a tightly bonded community, but still answer the needs of the digital age resulted in a pastiche of a sharing economy platform. Beyond the case at hand, this study theorizes the rhetoric and reality of the sharing economy by summarizing the grounds for the expectations of generating social capital and explains why certain expectations could not be met.


Author(s):  
Sergio García Magariño ◽  
María Jiménez

This paper is the first of a series of papers which aims to address Islamist violent radicalization from different angles: the nature of violent radicalization in the context of Spain, a comparison between European, North American and Indian violent radicalization, the need to refine territorial radicalization indexes within the context of preventing violent radicalization and the relation between Islamist violent radicalization and other forms of violent radicalization in Europe. This set of articles builds upon the general theoretical framework set by the author on two previous works (García, 2018; 2019). These works are framed under the known conception of three layers of micro, meso and macro factors contributing to violent radicalization processes (McCauley, Moskalenko, 2017). The paper starts by defining Islamist violent radicalization, then it explores different theoretical explanations and finally proposes an explanatory hypothesis that is tested against, on the one hand, data proceeding from different institutional sources in Spain and, on the other, some initial conversations which will become life stories and a in depth interviews to Spanish security officials and people who whether radicalized and regretted or lived very close to others that did it.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-201
Author(s):  
Andreas Bilstrup Finsen ◽  
Gerard J. Steen ◽  
Jean H. M. Wagemans

Abstract The central metaphor in cognitive science is the computer metaphor of the brain. In previous work, we reconstructed the metaphor in a novel way, guided by the assumption that it functions as an explanatory hypothesis. We developed an argumentative pattern for justifying scientific explanations in which this metaphor functions as a standpoint supported by argumentation containing abduction and analogy. In this paper, we use the argumentative pattern as a heuristic to reconstruct recent scientific criticisms against the computer metaphor. The pattern generates expectations about the nature of these criticisms, and we show those expectations to be met in most respects. We then discuss the extent to which our findings render the reconstruction offered by the argumentative pattern feasible. A central question emerging from our analysis is whether the computer metaphor can be adequately characterized as an explanatory hypothesis based on abduction. We suggest some possibilities for future lines of inquiry in this respect.


Thorax ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. thoraxjnl-2020-216794
Author(s):  
James M Trauer ◽  
Andrew Kawai ◽  
Anna K Coussens ◽  
Manjula Datta ◽  
Bridget M Williams ◽  
...  

RationaleThe heterogeneity in efficacy observed in studies of BCG vaccination is not fully explained by currently accepted hypotheses, such as latitudinal gradient in non-tuberculous mycobacteria exposure.MethodsWe updated previous systematic reviews of the effectiveness of BCG vaccination to 31 December 2020. We employed an identical search strategy and inclusion/exclusion criteria to these earlier reviews, but reclassified several studies, developed an alternative classification system and considered study demography, diagnostic approach and tuberculosis (TB)-related epidemiological context.Main resultsOf 21 included trials, those recruiting neonates and children aged under 5 were consistent in demonstrating considerable protection against TB for several years. Trials in high-burden settings with shorter follow-up also showed considerable protection, as did most trials in settings of declining burden with longer follow-up. However, the few trials performed in high-burden settings with longer follow-up showed no protection, sometimes with higher case rates in the vaccinated than the controls in the later follow-up period.ConclusionsThe most plausible explanatory hypothesis for these results is that BCG protects against TB that results from exposure shortly after vaccination. However, we found no evidence of protection when exposure occurs later from vaccination, which would be of greater importance in trials in high-burden settings with longer follow-up. In settings of declining burden, most exposure occurs shortly following vaccination and the sustained protection observed for many years thereafter represents continued protection against this early exposure. By contrast, in settings of continued intense transmission, initial protection subsequently declines with repeated exposure to Mycobacterium tuberculosis or other pathogens.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James M Trauer ◽  
Andrew Kawai ◽  
Anna Coussens ◽  
Manjula Datta ◽  
Bridget M Williams ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundThe variable efficacy observed in studies of BCG vaccination is incompletely explained by currently accepted hypotheses, such as latitudinal gradient in non-tuberculous mycobacteria exposure. We investigated heterogeneity in BCG vaccination in the context of participant demography, diagnostic approach and TB-related epidemiological context.MethodsWe updated previous systematic reviews of the effectiveness of BCG vaccination to 31st December 2018. We employed an identical search strategy and inclusion/exclusion criteria to past reviews, but reclassified several studies and developed an alternative classification system.ResultsOf 21 included trials, those recruiting neonates and children aged under five were consistent in demonstrating considerable protection for several years. Trials in high-burden settings with shorter follow-up also showed considerable protection, as did most trials in settings of declining burden with longer follow-up. However, the few trials performed in high-burden settings with longer follow-up showed no protection, sometimes with higher case rates in the vaccinated than the controls in the later follow-up period.ConclusionsThe most plausible explanatory hypothesis is that BCG protects against TB that results from exposure shortly after vaccination. However, risk is equivalent or increased when exposure occurs later from vaccination, a phenomenon which is predominantly observed in adults in high-burden settings with longer follow-up. In settings of declining burden, most exposure occurs shortly following vaccination and the sustained protection thereafter represents continued protection against this early exposure. By contrast, in settings of continued intense transmission, initial protection subsequently declines due to repeated exposure to M. tuberculosis or other pathogens.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Luque ◽  
Sara Molinero

In this opinion letter we critical assess a new explanatory hypothesis for habitual behaviour in humans, the goal replacement hypothesis. This hypothesis claims that habits are other forms of goal-directed behaviour, what challenges one core assumption of reward learning models. However, we show in this letter that this hypothesis can only explain part of the literature; recent results using new methods for measuring habits cannot be accounted by the goal replacement hypothesis.


Author(s):  
Alkım Z. Avşar ◽  
Paul T. Grogan

Abstract Teams in engineering design tackle problems that exceed the abilities of individuals. Improved understanding of how personality traits influence human behaviors and interaction may help create new methods and tools to support design teams. This paper seeks to understand how the Locus of Control (LOC) personality trait influences designer behaviors and team performance. A designer experiment studies 12 participant pairs controlled for categorical LOC pairing factors (internal-internal, external-external, and internal-external). Each design team completes six simplified cooperative parameter design tasks to minimize completion time, yielding 72 total data points. Regression analysis shows LOC pairing affects team efficiency in agreement with literature outside engineering design: diverse LOC traits reduce design efficiency while similarity increases team effectiveness. Results contribute to an explanatory hypothesis that LOC pairing influences designer behaviors related to action effectiveness which, subsequently, affects team performance outcomes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 54 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca De Almeida Pititto ◽  
Sandra Roberta G. Ferreira

The coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic has caused a public health emergency worldwide. Risk, severity and mortality of the disease have been associated with non-communicable chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus. Accumulated evidence has caused great concern in countries with high prevalence of this morbidity, such as Brazil. This text shows the picture of diabetes in Brazil, followed by epidemiological data and explanatory hypothesis for the association between diabetes and covid-19. We emphasized how the burden of these two morbidities in a middleincome country has aggravated this pandemic scenario. The comprehension of this association and biological plausibility may help face this pandemic and future challenges.


Author(s):  
Moyn Samuel

This chapter argues that, although the Nuremberg proceedings, otherwise known as the International Military Tribunal (IMT), were heavily focused on the crime of aggression, international criminal law’s (ICL) emphasis has shifted dramatically. Since the reinvention of ICL in 1990s, it has foregrounded atrocity. ICL is often presented as following a smooth trajectory, but actually there was a reversal or massive shift, from a priority on aggression to its near exclusion. The focus on atrocity—and the aspiration to make war ‘clean’—may humanize war rather than stigmatize it, and perhaps even enable war instead of limit it. This chapter suggests, as an explanatory hypothesis, that Nuremberg took place during a ‘passing window of plausibility’: the USA has generally opposed the criminal prohibition of aggression, either because such a system might demand US intervention or because it might pass judgment on US interventions. Circumstances aligned to allow the Nuremberg proceedings, after which ICL stalled again, and the switch to an atrocity focus helped fill the resulting void.


2020 ◽  
pp. medethics-2019-105498
Author(s):  
Arthur Schafer

A recent study by Olivieri et al, published in PLOS ONE, reports that between 2009 and 2015 a third of patients with thalassaemia in Canada’s largest hospital were switched from first-line licensed drugs to regimens of deferiprone, an unlicensed drug of unproven safety and efficacy. Based on retrospective data from patient records, the PLOS Study reports that patients treated with deferiprone, either as monotherapy or in combination with first-line drugs, suffered serious (and often irreversible) adverse effects. The data reported by Olivieri et al give rise to a number of ethical issues. These ethical issues are identified, placed in historical context and analysed. For purposes of this analysis, reliance is placed on two core principles of research ethics, harm minimisation and informed consent, and also on the hospital’s mission statement. Then a mystery is explored: How and why did it happen that Toronto’s University Health Network treated large numbers of patients with an unlicensed drug over a period of many years? ‘Institutional conflict of interest’ is considered as a possible explanatory hypothesis.


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