Abstract. As glaciers adjust their size in response to climate
variations, long-term changes in meltwater production can be expected,
affecting the local availability of water resources. We investigate glacier
runoff in the period 1955–2016 in the Maipo River basin (4843 km2,
33.0–34.3∘ S, 69.8–70.5∘ W), in the semiarid Andes of Chile.
The basin contains more than 800 glaciers, which cover 378 km2 in total (inventoried
in 2000). We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of 26 glaciers
with the physically oriented and fully distributed TOPKAPI (Topographic Kinematic Approximation and Integration)-ETH
glacio-hydrological model and extrapolate the results to the entire basin.
TOPKAPI-ETH is run at a daily time step using several glaciological and
meteorological datasets, and its results are evaluated against streamflow
records, remotely sensed snow cover, and geodetic mass balances for the
periods 1955–2000 and 2000–2013. Results show that in 1955–2016 glacier mass balance had
a general decreasing trend as a basin average but also had differences between
the main sub-catchments. Glacier volume decreased by one-fifth (from
18.6±4.5 to 14.9±2.9 km3). Runoff from the initially
glacierized areas was 177±25 mm yr−1 (16±7 % of the
total contributions to the basin), but it shows a decreasing sequence of
maxima, which can be linked to the interplay between a decrease in
precipitation since the 1980s and the reduction of ice melt. Glaciers in the
Maipo River basin will continue retreating because they are not in
equilibrium with the current climate. In a hypothetical constant climate
scenario, glacier volume would reduce to 81±38 % of the year 2000
volume, and glacier runoff would be 78±30 % of the 1955–2016
average. This would considerably decrease the drought mitigation capacity of
the basin.