The Effect of Temporal Characteristics on Developing a Practical Rainfall-Induced Landslide Potential Evaluation Model Using Random Forest Method

With the unique rainfall patterns of typhoons, plum rains, and short-term heavy rainfalls, the frequent landslide and debris flow disasters have caused severe loss to people in Taiwan. In the studies of landslide susceptibility, the information of factors used for analysis was usually annual-based content, and it was assumed that the same elements from different years were independent between each year. However, the occurrence of landslides was usually not simply due to the changes within a year. Instead, landslides were triggered because the factors that affected the potential of landslides reached critical conditions after a cumulative change with time. Therefore, this study had well evaluated the influence of temporal characteristics and the ratios of antecedent landslide areas in the past five years in the landslide potential evaluation model. The analysis was conducted through the random forest (RF) algorithm. Additional rainfall events of 2017 were used to test the proposed model’s performance to understand its practicality. The analysis results show that in the study area, the RF model had considerably acceptable performance. The results have also demonstrated that the antecedent landslide ratios in the past five years were essential to describe the significance of cumulative change with time when conducting potential landslide evaluation.

Vegetation Dynamics and Climatological Drivers in Ethiopia at the Turn of the Century

Global change, particularly climate change, poses a risk of altering vegetation composition and health. The consequences manifest throughout Earth’s system as a change in ecosystem services and socioecological stability. It is therefore critical that vegetation dynamics are monitored to establish baseline conditions and detect shifts. Africa is at high risk of environmental change, yet evaluation of the link between climate and vegetation is still needed for some regions. This work expands on more frequent local and multinational scale studies of vegetation trends by quantifying directional persistence (DP) at a national scale for Ethiopia, based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between 2000 and 2016. The DP metric determines cumulative change in vegetation greenness and has been applied to studies of ecological stability and health. Secondary analysis utilizing panel regression methodologies is carried out to measure the effect of climate on NDVI. Models are developed to consider spatial dependence by including fixed effects and spatial weights. Results indicate widespread cumulative declines in NDVI, with the greatest change during the dry season and concentrated in northern Ethiopia. Regression analyses suggest significant control from climatic variables. However, temperature has a larger effect on NDVI, which contrasts with findings of some previous studies.

Understanding the climate impacts on decadal vegetation change in northern Alaska

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change. This research documents tundra vegetation changes near Atqasuk and Utqiaġvik, Alaska. At each location, 30 plots were sampled annually from 2010 to 2019 using a point frame. For every encounter, we recorded the height and classified it into eight groupings (deciduous shrubs, evergreen shrubs, forbs, graminoids, bryophytes, lichens, litter and standing dead vegetation); for vascular plants we also identified the species. We found an increase in plant stature and cover over time consistent with regional warming. Graminoid cover and height increased at both sites, with a fivefold increase in cover in Atqasuk. At Atqasuk shrub and forb cover and height increased. Species diversity decreased at both sites. Year was generally the strongest predictor of vegetation change suggesting a cumulative change over time; however, soil moisture and soil temperature were also predictors of vegetation change. We anticipate plants in the region will continue to grow taller as the region warms, resulting in greater plant cover, especially graminoids and shrubs. The increase of plant cover and accumulation of litter may impact nonvascular plants negatively. Continued changes in community structure will impact energy balance and carbon cycling and may result in regional and global consequences.

Environmental assessment of stormwater pond impacts on a Rouge River tributary

This study was conducted to evaluate impacts of stormwater ponds in the Municipality of the Town of Richmond Hill on select physical (temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH) chemical (nutrients) and biological (macroinvertebrate community, macrophyte and experimental Hyalella azteca and Daphnia magna enclosures) aspects of a Rouge River tributary. Over a five-month period five sites along the tributary close to the outfall of the stormwater ponds were sampled to determine if there were any impacts, cumulatively (with increasing number of pond outfalls along the tributary) and locally (above and below an outfall). Physical and nutrient parameters showed no signifiant degradation in water quality, either cumulatively or locally. Macrophytic data showed some decrease in biomass at downstream sites, but no decrease in diversity or species richness. Survivorship in the enclosures containing Hyalella azteca and Daphnia magna showed no significant cumulative change. Analysis of the macroinvertebrate community showed no cumulative or local impact until the farthest downstream site.

Environmental assessment of stormwater pond impacts on a Rouge River tributary

This study was conducted to evaluate impacts of stormwater ponds in the Municipality of the Town of Richmond Hill on select physical (temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH) chemical (nutrients) and biological (macroinvertebrate community, macrophyte and experimental Hyalella azteca and Daphnia magna enclosures) aspects of a Rouge River tributary. Over a five-month period five sites along the tributary close to the outfall of the stormwater ponds were sampled to determine if there were any impacts, cumulatively (with increasing number of pond outfalls along the tributary) and locally (above and below an outfall). Physical and nutrient parameters showed no signifiant degradation in water quality, either cumulatively or locally. Macrophytic data showed some decrease in biomass at downstream sites, but no decrease in diversity or species richness. Survivorship in the enclosures containing Hyalella azteca and Daphnia magna showed no significant cumulative change. Analysis of the macroinvertebrate community showed no cumulative or local impact until the farthest downstream site.

Shifting Ontology in an Era of Acceleration and Quantified Humanity

The idea that we are swept along in unforeseen consequences of our capitalist ideals of continuous progress stands in stark contrast to Kelly’s (1966) consideration of the active role that human activity plays in human evolution. The cumulative change of humanity behaving differently, and divergent behaviour changing humanity, produce acceleration, and for Kelly this acceleration is ontological. In this paper I explore three moments of accelerated change, associated with the ontologies of object, relation and trace. Object ontology encouraged the dehumanised subject, relational ontology a calculated embodied subject and trace ontology the responsible subject.Currently we find ourselves somewhere between the calculated embodied and the responsible subject, cognitively related to others, but not yet prepared to experience the other as me differed and deferred from myself.

Human impacts on global freshwater fish biodiversity

Freshwater fish represent one-fourth of the world’s vertebrates and provide irreplaceable goods and services but are increasingly affected by human activities. A new index, Cumulative Change in Biodiversity Facets, revealed marked changes in biodiversity in >50% of the world’s rivers covering >40% of the world’s continental surface and >37% of the world’s river length, whereas <14% of the world’s surface and river length remain least impacted. Present-day rivers are more similar to each other and have more fish species with more diverse morphologies and longer evolutionary legacies. In temperate rivers, where the impact has been greatest, biodiversity changes were primarily due to river fragmentation and introduction of non-native species.

Weight Change for Pediatric Completers in a National Weight Loss Program

Overweight and obese children in low-income households have limited access to weight loss programs. Low-cost programs should be evaluated in this population. The objective of the current study is to determine weight change among 7 to 17-year-old participants in Take Off Pounds Sensibly (TOPS), a national, low-cost weight loss program. This nonconcurrent prospective study analyzes the cumulative change in weight z-score for overweight and obese children and adolescents who joined TOPS from 2008 to 2011 and consecutively renewed their annual membership. The study includes 586 individuals. At 1-year, cumulative mean (SD) weight z-score change was −0.13 (31). In general, mean change in weight z-scores was no different in subsequent years. Mean weight z-score of children and adolescent TOPS participants who renew their program membership decreased significantly in the first year. Randomized controlled trials should prospectively evaluate this program in children and adolescents.

A model of the transition to behavioural and cognitive modernity using reflexively autocatalytic networks

This paper proposes a model of the cognitive mechanisms underlying the transition to behavioural and cognitive modernity in the Upper Palaeolithic using autocatalytic networks. These networks have been used to model life’s origins. More recently, they have been applied to the emergence of cognitive structure capable of undergoing cultural evolution. Mental representations of knowledge and experiences play the role of catalytic molecules, the interactions among them (e.g. the forging of new associations or affordances) play the role of reactions, and thought processes are modelled as chains of these interactions. We posit that one or more genetic mutations may have allowed thought to be spontaneously tailored to the situation by modulating the degree of (i) divergence (versus convergence), (ii) abstractness (versus concreteness), and (iii) context specificity. This culminated in persistent, unified autocatalytic semantic networks that bridged previously compartmentalized knowledge and experience. We explain the model using one of the oldest-known uncontested examples of figurative art: the carving of the Hohlenstein–Stadel Löwenmensch, or lion man. The approach keeps track of where in a cultural lineage each innovation appears, and models cumulative change step by step. It paves the way for a broad scientific framework for the origins of both biological and cultural evolutionary processes.

A Model of the Transition to Behavioral and Cognitive Modernity using Reflexively Autocatalytic Networks

This paper proposes a model of the cognitive mechanisms underlying the transition to behavioral and cognitive modernity in the Upper Paleolithic using autocatalytic networks. These networks have been used to model life’s origins. More recently, they have been applied to the emergence of cognitive structure capable of undergoing cultural evolution. Mental representations of knowledge and experiences play the role of catalytic molecules, the interactions among them (e.g., the forging of new associations or affordances) play the role of reactions, and thought processes are modeled as chains of these interactions. We posit that one or more genetic mutations may have allowed thought to be spontaneously tailored to the situation by modulating the degree of (1) divergence (versus convergence), (2) abstractness (versus concreteness), and (3) context-specificity. This culminated in persistent, unified autocatalytic semantic networks that bridged previously compartmentalized knowledge and experience. We explain the model using one of the oldest-known uncontested examples of figurative art: the carving of the Hohlenstein-Stadel Löwenmensch, or lion-man. The approach keeps track of where in a cultural lineage each innovation appears, and models cumulative change step by step. It paves the way for a broad scientific framework for the origins of both biological and cultural evolutionary processes.