scholarly journals Forecasting the Demand of Honey Product for Facing Panic Buying and Stockpile in Pandemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Putritamara ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Adaptive Strategy ◽  
Food Supplement ◽  
Frequency Wave ◽  
Exponential Method ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Consumer Journey

The threat on health sector has massive impacts, and one of them is on business internal management as the main factor of producers to consider design of their products. During pandemic, honey is categorized as food supplement. In a certain phase, when the demand upon honey is high, the price tends to be unstable due to an imbalance between supply and demand. Complexities of consumer during pandemics effect on food security system. Unpreparedness of the producers in facing the phenomenon of panic buying and stockpile causes scarcity. Objective of the research was forecasting the demand of honey following the second pandemic wave and supported SMEs to create adaptive strategy to face scarcity. Method of the research used secondary data and survey in the field, which was ended by FGD to decide strategy of the producer to minimize scarcity. Data analysis used MSE (Mean Squared Error) with exponential smoothing. Results of the research showed that the method of alpha exponential 5% has minimum error, which forecast that in December 2021, the demand of propolis honey may reduce after the 2nd wave of Covid in Indonesia and approach to normal forecasting system. The accuracy with exponential method is higher and may facilitate the producers to provide products when fear contagion and panic buying take place. Contribution of analysis result toward strategy of the producers is providing estimation that maximum amount of availability increases no more than 2 times of the real demand of the consumers when panic buying occurs. The most needed strategy is setting the timeline in the projection of consumer journey. This alternative is relevant to fear contagion phenomenon because it contributes to socio-psychology of the consumers in deciding to buy supplement of honey product. Novelty of this research is examining the frequency wave of product purchase intensity of the consumer journey with Covid-19 phenomenon.

Water-demand management: assessing impacts of climate and other changes on water usage in Central Arizona

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 288-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netra B. Chhetri
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Water Demand Management ◽  
Central Arizona

Planning for sustainable water management in the arid region of the southwestern USA is challenging mostly due to only partial understanding of factors converging around water supply and demand. Some of the factors that prompt concern about the adequacy of water resources are: (a) a growing urban population seeking a range of services, including the need to preserve and enhance aquatic ecosystems; (b) dwindling water storage due to multi-year drought conditions; and (c) the prospect of human-induced climate changes and its consequences in the hydrologic system of the region. This study analyzes the potential for water saving in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA) of Central Arizona, which includes the city of Phoenix, one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the country. Based on an extensive literature review and secondary data analysis, this paper investigates multiple factors that place increasing strain on current water resources, and attempts to extend this analysis to 2025. Outdoor water use within the residential landscape is the most important factor that strains water resources in Phoenix AMA. Any gain in efficiency through agricultural water demand management would not only improve the availability of water for other uses in the AMA, but would facilitate adaptation of the agricultural system to climate and other ongoing changes.

scholarly journals Operational ocean models in the Adriatic Sea: a skill assessment

Ocean Science ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Chiggiato ◽  
P. Oddo
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Operational Systems ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. In the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) project, the performance of regional numerical ocean forecasting systems is assessed by means of model-model and model-data comparison. Three different operational systems considered in this study are: the Adriatic REGional Model (AREG); the Adriatic Regional Ocean Modelling System (AdriaROMS) and the Mediterranean Forecasting System General Circulation Model (MFS-GCM). AREG and AdriaROMS are regional implementations (with some dedicated variations) of POM and ROMS, respectively, while MFS-GCM is an OPA based system. The assessment is done through standard scores. In situ and remote sensing data are used to evaluate the system performance. In particular, a set of CTD measurements collected in the whole western Adriatic during January 2006 and one year of satellite derived sea surface temperature measurements (SST) allow to asses a full three-dimensional picture of the operational forecasting systems quality during January 2006 and to draw some preliminary considerations on the temporal fluctuation of scores estimated on surface quantities between summer 2005 and summer 2006. The regional systems share a negative bias in simulated temperature and salinity. Nonetheless, they outperform the MFS-GCM in the shallowest locations. Results on amplitude and phase errors are improved in areas shallower than 50 m, while degraded in deeper locations, where major models deficiencies are related to vertical mixing overestimation. In a basin-wide overview, the two regional models show differences in the local displacement of errors. In addition, in locations where the regional models are mutually correlated, the aggregated mean squared error was found to be smaller, that is a useful outcome of having several operational systems in the same region.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINAN KESEJAHTERAAN ANAK DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 589
Author(s):  
Rilla Mariska ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Child Welfare ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
Income Per Capita ◽  
Library Studies ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Female Literacy

This study aims to find out determine of child welfare in Indonesia by using Composite Children Welfare Index. The data used are secondary data in the form of cross section in 2015, with documentation data collection techniques and library studies obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. The variables used are Child Welfare, Income per capita, Income Distribution, Female Literacy Rate, Goverment Expenditure in education and health sector. The research methods used are: (1) Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Analysis, (2) Classical Assumption Test. The results of the study show that (1) Income per capita is positive and not significant on the child welfare in Indonesia. (2) Income distribustion is positive and significant on the child welfare in Indonesia. (3) Female Literacy Rate is positive and significant on the child welfare in Indonesia. (4) Goverment expenditure in education sector is negative and not significant on the child welfare in Indonesia(5) Goverment expenditure in health sector is negative and not significant on the child welfare in Indonesia(5) Income per capita, distribution income, female literacy rate, and goverment expenditure in eduacation and health statistically significant on the child welfare. So, only income distribution and female rate literacy is significant on the child welfare.

scholarly journals Potret Kebijakan Inovasi Pelayanan Publik di Indonesia Tahun 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Suranto Suranto ◽  
Awang Darumurti ◽  
Dwian Hartomi Akta Padma Eldo ◽  
Akhmad Habibullah
Keyword(s):  
Problem Solving ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Service Innovation ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Policy Innovation ◽  
Innovation Practices

Public service innovation is the primary key to good governance development launched in most countries in the world, including Indonesia. There have been many innovative programs carried out by several Ministries, Institutions, and Local Governments in practice. Still, there is no comprehensive portrait related to the tradition of public service innovation. The study aims to obtain a complete description of the public service innovation practices in 2020 using indicators of innovators, types of innovation, goals and achievements of innovation, policy sector and geographical aspects. This descriptive-explorative research type applies an archival method that focuses on secondary data usage, and the results are then analyzed using both Nvivo 12 and SPSS. The result shows that: (1) Innovators are dominated by local governments because the scope of service issues is more varied and specific. (2) The type of policy innovation that is oriented to the process aspect dominates the proposed proposal because of the ease and implementation factor. (3) Most innovation outcomes are in problem-solving, which shows the orientation to problem-solving that is more practical and real impact. (4) The health sector is getting more attention in policy innovation because of the trend of actual needs in the field, making it the primary sector. (5) The institution participants in Java island are much higher than outside Java, showing the imbalance in the quality of human resources

scholarly journals Health in Brazil: examples for the world

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malaquias Batista Filho ◽  
Anete Rissin
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Health Care Services ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Rural Families ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Intervention Models ◽  
History Of ◽  
Demand For Health ◽  
Information Framework

In the year 2012, for the first time in the history of humanity, the urban population has exceeded the rural population. This change has been conditioned, in large part, by migratory flows in the direction of the field to the cities, singularizing the importance of the situation according to epidemiological, ecological, political, and social aspects. These issues are highlighted by the United Nations (UNICEF and WHO) especially considering the remarkable and growing relevance that the poverty condition of rural families exercises in this displacement, creating a remarkable adverse and conflictive environment, mainly in the health sector. This fact occurs because the infrastructure of urban services is not keeping up with the sprawls in the outskirts of the cities of medium and large sizes. These arguments, of universal character, assume a crucial importance in developing countries, as in the case of Brazil, Latin America, an Asian subcontinent and the greater part of Africa. It is a context that justifies the I Brazilian Workshop on the Health of Subnormal Urban Clusters (old slums) to be held in Recife, as a strategy to consolidate a basic information framework about the epidemiological scenario, the supply and demand for health care services in urban areas of poverty. With an propositional objective: establish an agenda for research and intervention models having as focus the priorities of health of these urban spaces submitted to socio-economic conditions of recognized vulnerability.

scholarly journals Development and Performance of the Pepper Industry in Malaysia: A Critical Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 1402-1423
Author(s):  
Harry Entebang ◽  
Swee-Kiong Wong ◽  
Zehnder Jarroop Augustine Mercer
Keyword(s):  
Rural Community ◽  
Household Income ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
National Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Farm Inputs

The National Commodity Policy 2011-2020 was developed to increase the national income by harnessing the potential of commodity export revenues. Despite continuous efforts implemented by various related agencies, the overall performance of major commodities, particularly pepper, remains unsatisfactory. Regarded as a sought-after ‘king of spices’, pepper has become one of the most prized and important commodities traded globally. This paper highlights the development and performance of the pepper industry in Malaysia and discusses practical strategies and recommendations to transform the pepper industry. Besides conducting interviews with the industry experts to gain first-hand information, content and thematic analysis was employed based on secondary data research in this study. The findings of the study show that even though pepper is mostly used in food-related industries, its potential in pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical sectors remains underexplored. Globally, the overall supply and demand of pepper continue to increase, though the demand has recently exceeded supply. However, continuous new planting and farmexpansion initiatives by major producers caused the total global pepper supply to exceed consumption in 2018. In fact, pepper prices have declined more than 70% since 2015, which affected the overall household income of the rural community engaged in pepper farming. While experiencing low prices, smallholder pepper farmers and the industry continue to struggle with low domestic consumption, low production, higher cost of farm inputs, lack of extension services, low impact of research, development and innovation, ageing farming population, intense competition from other producing countries, low prices for quality pepper, limited subsidy to support continuous farming, pepper-related diseases, lack of new technology, and poor investment in downstream activities. Given this, the performance of the Malaysian pepper industry has fallen below expectations.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Need on Specialist Doctors in East Java from 2020 to 2030 using the Spectrum Application

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Istianatul Ula ◽  
Rifanda Bachraini Firdaus
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Population Projection ◽  
Health Needs ◽  
Specialist Doctor

Human resources in the health sector need to be improved on both the aspects of quality and quantity. This is important for development planning. According to BPS in 2017 the population of East Java was 39,292,972 people, while in 2018 there were 39,500,851 people. Data from SISDMK revealed that there were 1,821specialist doctors in 2017 and 2,531 in 2018. This qualitative research was aimed at understanding and exploring deeply the secondary data obtained from the 2017–2018 SISDMK. The data was analyzed using Spectrum Software for population projection and human resource health needs. The results showed that the population projection of East Java kept increasing. In 2020 it will reach 39,886,288 people, and in 2030 there will be as many as 42,329,015 people. The projection of the number of specialist doctor needs in East Java in 2020 is 4,387, which will keep increasing to 5,079 in 2030. The ratio of specialist doctors in 2020 will be 36.26 per 100,000 population, and in 2030 it will be 35.27 per 100,000.

The Indonesia-Australia Cooperation In Responding To The Covid-19 Pandemic (2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 851-861
Author(s):  
Mentari Mentari
Keyword(s):  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Social Effects ◽  
Health Security ◽  
Library Research ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Data Collection Technique ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Descriptive Method

The COVID-19 pandemic began in Wuhan, China in late December 2019 and rapidly spread to all over the world. The COVID-19 caused by SARS-Cov-2 and more than one million people have been affected worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic not only impacts the health sector, but the pandemic triggered to the economic crisis with expansive social effects. Due to the impact of COVID-19, the international cooperation needs to be taken to responding and control the pandemic. Indonesia and Australia as a close neighbour, have worked closely in disaster risk management and currently cooperate to response the COVID-19. This study aims to describe the cooperation between Indonesia and Australia in responding the impacts of COVID-19. This study uses a qualitative approach with descriptive method. The data collection technique used based on secondary data in the form of literature review (library research) including books, journals, reports, organization’s websites, online articles, and scientific papers that are related to the study. The author uses the concept of cooperation to support the idea of cooperation between Indonesia and Australia to responding the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic. This study provides that the cooperation between Indonesia and Australia in responding the impacts of COVID-19 are divided into three sectors, namely health security, stability, and economic recovery.

ANALISIS PENGARUH PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH SEKTOR PENDIDIKAN DAN KESEHATAN, INFLASI DAN KEMISKINAN TERHADAP INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI SEBAGAI VARIABEL MODERATING DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 174-186
Author(s):  
A. Mahendra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Moderating Variables ◽  
Year 2000

This research is intended to know the influence of government expenditure on education and health sector, inflation, and poverty on human development index with economic growth as a moderating variables in Indonesia. Population in this research is Indonesia and 20 of them were selected to be the samples for this research through purposive sampling technique. Estimates conducted by the multiple regression analysis. The data that were used in this study were secondary data, consisted of Government Expenditure, Inflation, and Poverty to human development index for the year 2000-2019. The results of this research, that Based on the partial test (t test), the Poverty variable has no significant effect while the Inflation and Government Expenditure variables have a significant effect on the variables of the human development index in Indonesia, the simultan test (F test), government expenditure, inflation, and poverty have a significant effect on the variables of the human development index. The economic growth variables are unable to moderate the relationship between government expenditure, inflation and poverty on the human development index.

scholarly journals Designing the Tools of the Trade: How corporate social responsibility consultants and their tool-based practices created market shifts

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Pascal Gond ◽  
Luc Brès
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Social Concerns ◽  
Corporate Social

Combining insights from the sociology of markets and studies of consultants, this article examines the tool-based practices by which market actors enable the agencing of the supply and demand of the market in ways that shape the market’s trajectory. Building on 31 interviews and a rich set of secondary data, we provide an analysis of the development of a market for consultancy products and services for corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the province of Quebec (Canada). Through analytical induction we identified six tool-based practices by which consultants contributed to the agencing of the market, and our results show how these practices collectively created market shifts. Our analysis offers new insights into the processes by which consultants’ tool-based practices produce market shifts, embed environmental and social concerns within market mechanisms, and ‘vascularize’ markets.

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