Revisiting the Precipitous Terrain Classification from a Meteorological Perspective

Takeoff and landing maneuvers can be particularly hazardous at airports surrounded by complex terrain. To address this, the Federal Aviation Administration has developed a Precipitous Terrain classification, as a way to impose more restrictive terrain clearances in the vicinity of complex terrain and to mitigate possible altimeter errors and pilot control problems experienced while executing instrument approach procedures. The current Precipitous Point Value (PPV) algorithm relies on the terrain characteristics within a local area of 2 NM, and is therefore static in time. In this work, we investigate the role of meteorological effects leading to potential aviation hazards over complex terrain, namely turbulence, altimeter setting errors and density altitude deviations. To that end, we combine observations with high-resolution numerical weather forecasts within a 2° × 2° region over the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, containing three airports that are surrounded by Precipitous Terrain. Both available turbulence reports and model’s turbulence forecasts show little correlation with the PPV algorithm for the region analyzed, indicating that the static terrain characteristics cannot generally be used to reliably capture hazardous low-level turbulence events. Altimeter setting errors and density altitude effects are also found to be only very weakly correlated with the PPV algorithm. Altimeter setting errors contribute to hazardous conditions mainly during cold seasons, driven by synoptic weather systems, while density altitude effects are on the contrary predominantly present during the spring and summer months, and follow a very well-marked diurnal evolution modulated by surface radiative effects. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of high-resolution weather forecast information in determining aviation-relevant hazardous conditions over complex terrain.

Assessing the Risks of Vessel Icing and Aviation Hazards during Downslope Windstorms in the Russian Arctic

Downslope windstorms are known sources of hazardous weather, such as severe gusty winds, rapid temperature changes, ship icing, strong turbulence and others, posing a great danger to people and infrastructure. This paper investigates the risks of ship icing and aviation hazards (rapid changes in the angle of attack and gust load factor) during downslope windstorms in five regions in the Russian Arctic based on observational data, reanalysis, and mesoscale numerical modeling. The highest frequency of ship icing was found during downslope windstorms downstream from Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya. Icing is rare during Tiksi and Wrangel Island downslope windstorms due to almost permanent sea ice cover during the cold season, while icing is absent during very warm Pevek downslope windstorm even in the ice-free conditions. Conditions for heavy icing are rather frequent (up to 5% of cases in winter) during Novaya Zemlya downslope windstorms and less frequent (up to 0.5% in spring) during Svalbard windstorm. The presence of downslope windstorms in those regions causes an increase in the maximum icing rate by about 2 times. Strong aviation turbulence hazardous for light aircraft is typical for all considered regions with downslope windstorms; it is observed mainly at an altitude of 1 to 4 km above the surface. Hazardous turbulence for jet aircraft like Boeing 737 on its cruising flight levels was found on Svalbard and in Tiksi region in 10–15% of cases during strong downslope windstorms.

RUNWAY INCURSIONS IN NORWAY 2009-2019: A CASE STUDY OF EXTENDED INVESTIGATION REPORTS

The aim of the present study is to examine case studies from extended investigations of runway incursions in Norway from 2009-2019. Runway incursions involves an incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the runway and represents a relatively frequent threat to safety in the aviation industry. A content analysis and classification of the extended investigation reports (N=7) revealed 42 explanatory factors that could be condensed into four categories related to perception, procedural errors, memory and decision-making. When mapped onto the theoretical framework of situational awareness about 70% of the explanatory factors were related to misperception of information, improper comprehension of information or incorrect projection of future actions, respectively. The present study suggests that situational awareness can serve as a useful theoretical framework to identify deficits in human factors associated with runway incursion incidents. The results from this study contributes to inform investigation into aviation hazards and training of air traffic controllers.

Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash concentration risk for aviation

<p>During volcanic eruptions Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) produce forecasts of ash location and concentration. However, these forecasts are deterministic and do not take into account the inherent uncertainty in the forecasts due to incomplete knowledge of the volcano’s eruption characteristics and imperfect representation of atmospheric processes in numerical models. This means flight operators have incomplete information regarding the risk of flying following an eruption, which could result in overly conservative decisions being made. There is a need for a new generation of volcanic ash hazard charts allowing end users to make fast and robust decisions using risk estimates based on  state-of-the-art probabilistic forecast methods .</p><p> </p><p>In this presentation, a method for visualizing ash concentration matrix using a risk-matrix approach will be applied to two volcanic eruptions, Grimsvotn (2011) and Raikoke (2019). These risk-matrix graphics reduce the ensemble information into an easy-to-use decision-making tool. In this work the risk level is determined by combining the concentration of volcanic ash and the likelihood of that concentration occurring.</p><p> </p><p>When applying this technique to the Grimsvotn eruption, the airspace containing volcanic ash concentrations deemed to be associated with the highest risk (high likelihood of exceeding a high concentration threshold) to aviation are reduced by over 85% compared to using an ensemble that gives an ash distribution similar to the VAAC issued deterministic forecast. The reduction during the Raikoke eruption can be as much as 40% at a forecast lead time of 48 hours. This has the potential to reduce the disruption to airline operations.  This tool could be extended to include other aviation hazards, such as desert dust, aircraft icing and clear air turbulence.</p><p> </p>

An EARLINET early warning system for atmospheric aerosol aviation hazards

A stand-alone lidar-based method for detecting airborne hazards for aviation in near real time (NRT) is presented. A polarization lidar allows for the identification of irregular-shaped particles such as volcanic dust and desert dust. The Single Calculus Chain (SCC) of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) delivers high-resolution preprocessed data: the calibrated total attenuated backscatter and the calibrated volume linear depolarization ratio time series. From these calibrated lidar signals, the particle backscatter coefficient and the particle depolarization ratio can be derived in temporally high resolution and thus provide the basis of the NRT early warning system (EWS). In particular, an iterative method for the retrieval of the particle backscatter is implemented. This improved capability was designed as a pilot that will produce alerts for imminent threats for aviation. The method is applied to data during two diverse aerosol scenarios: first, a record breaking desert dust intrusion in March 2018 over Finokalia, Greece, and, second, an intrusion of volcanic particles originating from Mount Etna, Italy, in June 2019 over Antikythera, Greece. Additionally, a devoted observational period including several EARLINET lidar systems demonstrates the network's preparedness to offer insight into natural hazards that affect the aviation sector.

Detection and Avoidance of Atmospheric Aviation Hazards Using Infrared Spectroscopic Imaging

Atmospheric aviation hazards due to turbulence, poor visibility, high-altitude ice crystals and volcanic ash and gases are known problems for aviation and can cause both economic damage to engines and airframes as well as having the potential to cause the engines to stall in flight with possible loss of the aircraft. Current space- and ground-based assets allow observations of some of these hazards and their detection and movement can be forecast using modern computer weather forecasting and dispersion models. These largely strategic resources have proved very valuable but somewhat limited in the tactical sense, where commercial aviation must make rapid decisions in order to avoid an undetected or un-forecast hazardous cloud or atmospheric condition. Here we investigate the use of multi-spectral (two channels or more) infrared imaging from an aircraft perspective, and show that it is possible to use this information to provide tactical awareness tools for use by aviators and other stakeholders. This study has a strong focus on volcanic ash as an aviation hazard but also includes applications to some forms of clear air turbulence (CAT), to high-altitude ice crystals (HAIC) and windblown desert dust. For volcanic ash detection, the research shows that current two-channel satellite-based infrared techniques provide acceptable discrimination and quantification, but two-channel infrared imaging airborne solutions have significant drawbacks. Because of the limitation of two-channel methods, infrared spectroscopic techniques are investigated and it is shown they can significantly reduce the confusion caused by meteorological hydrometeors and potentially provide information on other atmospheric hazards to aviation, such as HAIC and some forms of turbulence. Not only are these findings important for on-going efforts to incorporate IR imaging onto commercial aircraft, but they also have relevance to the increasing use of drones for hazard detection, research and monitoring. Uncooled infrared bolometric imaging cameras with spectroscopic capabilities are available and we describe one such system for use on airborne platforms.

A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation

Volcanic eruptions comprise an important airborne hazard for aviation. Although significant events are rare, e.g. compared to the threat of thunderstorms, they have a very high impact. The current state of tools and abilities to mitigate aviation hazards associated with an assumed volcanic cloud was tested within an international demonstration exercise. Experts in the field assembled at the Schwarzenberg barracks in Salzburg, Austria, in order to simulate the sequence of procedures for the volcanic case scenario of an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection (based on artificial observations) of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings. Volcanic-emission-concentration charts were generated applying modern ensemble techniques. The exercise products provided an important basis for decision-making for aviation traffic management during a volcanic-eruption crisis. By integrating the available wealth of data, observations and modelling results directly into widely used flight-planning software, it was demonstrated that route optimization measures could be implemented effectively. With timely and rather precise warnings available, the new tools and processes tested during the exercise demonstrated vividly that a vast majority of flights could be conducted despite a volcanic plume being widely dispersed within a high-traffic airspace over Europe. The resulting number of flight cancellations was minimal.

EARLINET/ACTRIS Early Warning System for atmospheric aerosol aviation hazards

<p>Volcanic eruptions have the capacity to significantly impact human life, consequently, tools for mitigating them are of high importance. The early detection of a potentially hazardous volcanic eruption and the issuance of early warnings concerning volcanic hazards (e.g. ash dispersal), are key elements in the initiation of operational response procedures. Historically, lidars have not typically played a key operational role during volcanic eruptions, with other remote sensing instruments such as radars, infrared and ultraviolet cameras being preferred. Recently, a tailored product of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) for the early warning of the presence of volcanic ash and desert dust plumes at cruising altitudes has been developed. Here, we extend the applicability of this methodology to lidars and ceilometers near active volcanoes in Iceland and Mt. Etna in Italy. The tailored methodology and selected case studies will be presented, demonstrating its potential for real-time application during volcanic eruptions.</p><p><strong>Acknowledgements</strong>: This work has been conducted within the framework of the E-shape (Grant Agreement n. 820852) and EUNADICS-AV (Grant agreement no. 723986) H2020 projects. Furthermore, the authors acknowledge the ACTRIS-2 and ACTRIS Preparatory Phase projects that have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 654109) and from European Union’s Horizon 2020 Coordination and Support Action (grant agreement No. 739530), respectively.</p>

An EARLINET Early Warning System for atmospheric aerosol aviation hazards

A stand-alone lidar-based method for detecting airborne hazards for aviation in near-real-time (NRT) is presented. A polarization lidar allows for the identification of irregular-shaped particles such as volcanic dust and desert dust. The Single Calculus Chain (SCC) of the European Aerosol Lidar Network (EARLINET) delivers high resolution pre-processed data: the calibrated total attenuated backscatter and the calibrated volume linear depolarization ratio time series. From these calibrated lidar signals, the particle backscatter coefficient and the particle depolarization ratio can be derived in temporally-high resolution, and thus provide the basis of the NRT Early Warning System (EWS). In particular, an iterative method for the retrieval of the particle backscatter is implemented. This improved capability was designed as a pilot that will produce alerts for imminent threats for aviation. The method is applied to data during two diverse aerosol scenarios: first, a record breaking desert dust intrusion in March 2018 over Finokalia, Greece, and, second, an intrusion of volcanic particles originating from Mount Etna in June 2019 over Antikythera, Greece. Additionally, a devoted observational period including several EARLINET lidar systems demonstrates the network's preparedness to offer insight into natural hazards that affect the aviation sector.

A volcanic hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation

Volcanic eruptions comprise one of the most important airborne hazards for aviation. Although significant events are rare, they have a very high impact. The current state of tools and abilities to mitigate aviation hazards associated with an assumed volcanic cloud was tested within an international demonstration exercise. Experts in the field assembled at the Schwarzenberg barracks in Salzburg, Austria, in order to simulate the sequence of procedures for the volcanic case scenario of an artificial eruption of Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings. Volcanic emission concentration charts were generated applying modern ensemble techniques. The exercise products provided an important basis for decision making for aviation traffic management during a volcanic eruption crisis. By integrating the available wealth of data, observations and modelling results directly into a widely used flight planning software, it was demonstrated that route optimization measures could be implemented effectively. With timely and rather precise warnings available, the new tools and processes tested during the exercise demonstrated vividly that a vast majority of flights could be conducted despite a volcanic plume widely dispersed within a high-traffic airspace over Europe. The resulting number of flight cancellations was minimal.