scholarly journals Projected Moisture Index (MI) for Tropical Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Charuni Wickramarachchi ◽  
Jayanga T. Samarasinghe ◽  
Yousif Alyousifi ◽  
Upaka Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Moisture Index ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Projected Changes

Atmospheric moisture loading can cause a great impact on the performance and integrity of building exteriors in a tropical climate. Buildings can be highly impacted due to the changing climate conditions over the world. Therefore, it is important to incorporate the projected changes of moisture loads in structural designs under changing climates. The moisture index (MI) is widely used in many countries as a climate-based indicator to guide the building designs for their durability performance. However, this was hardly considered in structural designs in Sri Lanka, even though the country is one of the most affected countries under climate change. Therefore, this study investigates future climate change impacts on the environmental moisture in terms of MI, which can be used in climate zoning, investigating indoor air quality, understanding thermal comfort and energy consumption, etc. The moisture index was found as a function of the drying index (DI) and wetting index (WI) to the whole country for its four rainfall seasons. The temporal and spatial distributions were plotted as MI maps and showcased under two categories; including historical MI maps (1990–2004) and future projected MI maps (2021–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). Future projected MI maps were constructed using bias-corrected climatic data for two RCP climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results showed that the temporal and spatial variations of MIs are justifiable to the country’s rainfall patterns and seasons. However, notable increases of MIs can be observed for future projected MIs in two seasons, and thus a careful investigation of their impacts should be assessed in terms of the construction of buildings and various agricultural activities. Therefore, the outcome of this research can be essentially used in policy implementation in adapting to the ongoing climate changes in Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals Future climate change impacts on runoff of scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin using SDSM and RCPs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saira Munawar ◽  
Muhammad Naveed Tahir ◽  
Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Jhelum River ◽  
Jhelum River Basin

Abstract Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using the SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2015 using R2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using the MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89–0.95 and 0.8–1.02 for temperature and 0.86–0.96 and 0.57–1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 °C to 3.8 °C in temperature, 2–7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3–7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to the baseline period. Results depicted an increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin.

scholarly journals The Awareness of and Input into Cultural Heritage Preservation by Urban Planners and Other Municipal Actors in Light of Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 726
Author(s):  
Paul Carroll ◽  
Eeva Aarrevaara
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Town Planning ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Heritage Preservation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cultural Heritage Preservation

Future climate conditions need to be considered in planning for urban areas. As well as considering how new structures would best endure in the future, it is important to take into account factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings in the urban setting. Climate change can cause an increase in structural degradation. In this paper, a review of both what these factors are and how they are addressed by urban planners is presented. A series of inquiries into the topic was carried out on town planning personnel and those involved in cultural heritage preservation in several towns and cities in Finland and in a small number of other European countries. The target group members were asked about observed climate change impacts on cultural heritage, about present steps being taken to protect urban cultural heritage, and also their views were obtained on how climate change impacts will be emphasised in the future in this regard. The results of the inquiry demonstrate that climate change is still considered only in a limited way in urban planning, and more interaction between different bodies, both planning and heritage authorities, as well as current research on climate change impacts, is needed in the field.

scholarly journals Glacier ice archives nearly 15,000-year-old microbes and phages

Microbiome ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi-Ping Zhong ◽  
Funing Tian ◽  
Simon Roux ◽  
M. Consuelo Gazitúa ◽  
Natalie E. Solonenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Amplicon Sequencing ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Sampling Procedures ◽  
Functional Genome

Abstract Background Glacier ice archives information, including microbiology, that helps reveal paleoclimate histories and predict future climate change. Though glacier-ice microbes are studied using culture or amplicon approaches, more challenging metagenomic approaches, which provide access to functional, genome-resolved information and viruses, are under-utilized, partly due to low biomass and potential contamination. Results We expand existing clean sampling procedures using controlled artificial ice-core experiments and adapted previously established low-biomass metagenomic approaches to study glacier-ice viruses. Controlled sampling experiments drastically reduced mock contaminants including bacteria, viruses, and free DNA to background levels. Amplicon sequencing from eight depths of two Tibetan Plateau ice cores revealed common glacier-ice lineages including Janthinobacterium, Polaromonas, Herminiimonas, Flavobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Methylobacterium as the dominant genera, while microbial communities were significantly different between two ice cores, associating with different climate conditions during deposition. Separately, ~355- and ~14,400-year-old ice were subject to viral enrichment and low-input quantitative sequencing, yielding genomic sequences for 33 vOTUs. These were virtually all unique to this study, representing 28 novel genera and not a single species shared with 225 environmentally diverse viromes. Further, 42.4% of the vOTUs were identifiable temperate, which is significantly higher than that in gut, soil, and marine viromes, and indicates that temperate phages are possibly favored in glacier-ice environments before being frozen. In silico host predictions linked 18 vOTUs to co-occurring abundant bacteria (Methylobacterium, Sphingomonas, and Janthinobacterium), indicating that these phages infected ice-abundant bacterial groups before being archived. Functional genome annotation revealed four virus-encoded auxiliary metabolic genes, particularly two motility genes suggest viruses potentially facilitate nutrient acquisition for their hosts. Finally, given their possible importance to methane cycling in ice, we focused on Methylobacterium viruses by contextualizing our ice-observed viruses against 123 viromes and prophages extracted from 131 Methylobacterium genomes, revealing that the archived viruses might originate from soil or plants. Conclusions Together, these efforts further microbial and viral sampling procedures for glacier ice and provide a first window into viral communities and functions in ancient glacier environments. Such methods and datasets can potentially enable researchers to contextualize new discoveries and begin to incorporate glacier-ice microbes and their viruses relative to past and present climate change in geographically diverse regions globally.

scholarly journals Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camille Leclerc ◽  
Franck Courchamp ◽  
Céline Bellard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Insular Ecosystems

Abstract Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

Regional biogeographical model of vegetation zones in doctoral programme Regional Biography in Olomouc (Case study for Norway spruce)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Machar ◽  
Marián Halás ◽  
Zdeněk Opršal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Zones ◽  
Landscape Research

Regional climate changes impacts induce vegetation zones shift to higher altitudes in temperate landscape. This paper deals with applying of regional biogeography model of climate conditions for vegetation zones in Czechia to doctoral programme Regional Geography in Palacky University Olomouc. The model is based on general knowledge of landscape vegetation zonation. Climate data for model come from predicted validated climate database under RCP8.5 scenario since 2100. Ecological data are included in the Biogeography Register database (geobiocoenological data related to landscape for cadastral areas of the Czech Republic). Mathematical principles of modelling are based on set of software solutions with GIS. Students use the model in the frame of the course “Special Approaches to Landscape Research” not only for regional scenarios climate change impacts in landscape scale, but also for assessment of climate conditions for growing capability of agricultural crops or forest trees under climate change on regional level.

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 171-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Li ◽  
Ting Ren ◽  
Patrick L. Kinney ◽  
Andrew Joyner ◽  
Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Related Mortality

Inuit vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change in Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada

Polar Record ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tristan Pearce ◽  
Barry Smit ◽  
Frank Duerden ◽  
James D. Ford ◽  
Annie Goose ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northwest Territories ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Climate Conditions

ABSTRACTClimate change is already being experienced in the Arctic with implications for ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. This paper argues that an assessment of community vulnerability to climate change requires knowledge of past experience with climate conditions, responses to climatic variations, future climate change projections, and non-climate factors that influence people's susceptibility and adaptive capacity. The paper documents and describes exposure sensitivities to climate change experienced in the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories and the adaptive strategies employed. It is based on collaborative research involving semi-structured interviews, secondary sources of information, and participant observations. In the context of subsistence hunting, changes in temperature, seasonal patterns (for example timing and nature of the spring melt), sea ice and wind dynamics, and weather variability have affected the health and availability of some species of wildlife important for subsistence and have exacerbated risks associated with hunting and travel. Inuit in Ulukhaktok are coping with these changes by taking extra precautions when travelling, shifting modes of transportation, travel routes and hunting areas to deal with changing trail conditions, switching species harvested, and supplementing their diet with store bought foods. Limited access to capital resources, changing levels of traditional knowledge and land skills, and substance abuse were identified as key constraints to adaptation. The research demonstrates the need to consider the perspectives and experiences of local people for climate change research to have practical relevance to Arctic communities such as for the development and promotion of adaptive strategies.

scholarly journals Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
NA Cradock-Henry ◽  
J Connolly ◽  
P Blackett ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Development ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Visual Aids ◽  
Systems Methodology ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
New Research

New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology: • Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts; • Enhanced stakeholders’ understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and • Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Supharatid ◽  
J. Nafung ◽  
T. Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

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