Retrospective Analysis of the Emergency Risk Management Theory

A retrospective analysis of the emergency risk management theory is presented. A brief history of the origin of the main emergency risk management theory terms and concepts is presented in the article. The events that required theoretical comprehension of emergency situations, their legislative regulation and the need to search for new solutions are investigated. Special attention is paid to the evolution of the Seveso Directive of the European Union. The author analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the "absolute security" concept, justifies the inevitability of the transition to the "acceptable risk" concept. The quantitative measure of taking 10-6 per year as the maximum acceptable (or maximum permissible) individual risk and 10-8 per year as a negligible risk is justified.

Landslide Monitoring using Inclinometer with Micro Electromechanical System (MEMS)

Being located on the Pacific Ring of Fire and a tectonically active country, Indonesia has to cope with the constant risk of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods and landslides. Landslides and other mass movements are serious geo-environmental hazards in Indonesia. Following report from the Indonesia National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), landslides are among high disaster death toll throughout the archipelago. It claimed 248 lives last year alone. The number of landslides in Indonesia increase steadily to 376 in 2014 from 291 in 2012. Hence, landslide monitoring system is required to determine style of landslide movement, for risk and even emergency risk management assessments and to assist with the design of mitigation works. A landslide instrumentation program including an inclinometer is designed for landslide monitoring. The inclinometer, or tilt sensor, is an instrument used for measuring slope, tilt, or inclination. In this paper we use Micro Electromechanical System (MEMS) as a sensor to measure changes in an angle. Then information is transferred to a central server soon after real-time accelerations are monitored. A data logger also used as a data recording. With low-cost MEMS accelerometers, the results show this instrument is able to provide reliable ground-motion data in network-scale deployments.

Legal challenges of emergency risk management in the context of Eurasian integration (Armenian case)

In a rapidly changing world, the volume, quality and geography of emerging phenomena are also changing. Despite the fact that about 110 types of known natural hazards are specific to Armenia, it seemed that we already have enough experience to withstand various emergencies, pandemics, however, Covid-19 showed that not only The Republic of Armenia, but a number of other advanced states were not ready to face the pandemic that caused many deaths and economic crises. The member states of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are no exception among these states. In Armenia, more than 200000 people were infected by Covid-19 for about 1.5 years, as a result of which for about thousands of people died. The presented numbers already show, that in a republic with a small population, the healthcare system objectively appeared in a crisis situation and isn’t able to respond operatively in such situations. The same situation has been registered in the rest EAEU member states, as a result of which in the rest EAEU member states also thousands of people died. In this context, the issues of food security, as well as the implementation of large strategic infrastructure projects during pandemic, are of particular importance.

Traditional Festivals and COVID-19: Event Management and Digitalization in Times of Physical Distancing

The purpose of this research is to find out how the organization of events adapted to the COVID-19 lockdown and how digital transformation can be a solution for events when physical distancing is required. Using a qualitative approach based on case studies, the paper analyzes the changes in the organization of traditional festivals during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, focusing on the Spain’s five most populated cities. Complementary to the study, in-depth interviews were conducted with the heads of Protocol and Institutional Relations of the city councils in charge of organizing these events. The results show that, while some festivals were postponed, others were redesigned to be held without an audience, enhancing live streaming, strengthening communication through social media, and offering virtual tours. COVID-19 has been a catalyst for event digitalization. The existence as yet of only a small amount of scientific literature on how COVID-19 has impacted event and festival management makes this research a relevant contribution. This work provides insights for events crisis and emergency risk management, as well as for the digital transformation of festivals. The study highlights the need for contingency plans for organizing events in situations that require physical distancing and how online tools and virtual events can be part of this solution.

The Prediction for the Outbreak of COVID-19 for 15 States in USA by Using Turning Phase Concepts as of April 10, 2020

Based on a new concept called “Turning Period”, the goal of this report is to show how we can conduct the prediction for the outlook in the different stages for the battle with outbreak of COVID-19 currently in US, in particular, to identify when each of top 15 states in USA (basically on their populations) is going to enter into the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control by the criteria such as daily change of new patients is less than 10% smoothly. Indeed, based on the data of April 10, 2020 with the numerical analysis, we are able to classify 15 states of US into the following four different categories for the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Today and the main conclusion are:First, staring around April 14, 20202, three states which are Washington State, Louisiana and Indiana are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general.Second, staring aroundApril15, 20202, two states which are New Jersey, and New York are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general.Third, staring aroundApril16, 20202, seven states which are California, Florida, Georgia (GA), Illinois, Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general.Fourth, staring aroundApril17, 20202, three states which are Texas, Massachusetts, and Connecticut are entering the stage that the outbreak of COVID-19 is under the control, which means daily change of new patients is less than 10% and the gamma is less than zero in general.Finally, we want to reinforce that emergency risk management is always associated with the implementation of an emergency plan. The identification of the Turning Time Period is key to emergency planning as it provides a timeline for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.

Risk Management of COVID-19 by Universities in China

The rapid spread of new coronaviruses throughout China and the world in 2019–2020 has had a great impact on China’s economic and social development. As the backbone of Chinese society, Chinese universities have made significant contributions to emergency risk management. Such contributions have been made primarily in the following areas: alumni resource collection, medical rescue and emergency management, mental health maintenance, control of staff mobility, and innovation in online education models. Through the support of these methods, Chinese universities have played a positive role in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. However, they also face the problems of alumni’s economic development difficulties, the risk of deadly infection to medical rescue teams and health workers, infection of teachers and students, and the unsatisfactory application of information technology in resolving the crisis. In response to these risks and emergency problems, we propose some corresponding solutions for public dissemination, including issues related to medical security, emergency research, professional assistance, positive communication, and hierarchical information-based teaching.

THE JOINT RESEARCH PROJECT ANKOMMEN – EXPLORATION USING AUTOMATED UAV AND UGV

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Disasters such as floods, large fires, landslides, avalanches, or forest fires are often inevitable and cannot be fully prevented, but their impact can be minimized with sound disaster management strategies aided by the latest technological advancements. A key factor affecting these strategies is the time, where any delay can result in dramatic consequences and potentially human losses. Therefore, a quick situation report of the disaster is highly demanded, but still not an easy task because - in most cases - a priori known spatial information like map data or geo-databases, are outdated. In addition, visual and geometric information on the current situation is needed to help rescue teams and first responders. From this point of view, we came up to the main idea of the joint research project ANKommEn and its extension ANKommEn 2 (german acronym for Automated Navigation and Communication for Exploration). The project idea embodies an exploratory investigation to be smart in providing correct and timely geodata that can help in emergency cases; especially in support decision making in emergency risk management. For this purpose, automated unmanned systems, both ground (UGV) and airborne (UAV), are being developed to provide up-to-date information of rescue scenarios.</p>

Design of a hybrid intelligent system for the management of flood disaster risks

The frequency of occurrence and intensity of floods is a huge threat to environment, human existence, critical infrastructure and economy. Flood risk assessments depend on probabilistic approaches and suffer from non-existence of appropriate indices of acceptable risk, dearth of information and pieces of knowledge for explicit view and understanding of the characteristics and severity level of flood hazard. This paper proposes a hybridized intelligent framework comprising fuzzy logic (FL), neural network and genetic algorithm for clustering and visualization of flood data, prediction and classification of flood risks severity level. A multidimensional knowledge model of flood incidence using star, snowflake and facts constellation schemas was proposed for the knowledge warehouse. A six-layered adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system implementing mamdani’s inference mechanism was design to evaluate input features based on fuzzy rules held in the multidimensional data model. The system is aimed at predicticting and classifying flood risk severity levels. The perception of emergency risk management is very important in modern society. Therefore, this work provides a framework for the practical applications of data mining techniques and tools to emergency risk management. The work would assist to identify locations with significant flood risk.

Monitoring and Forecasting of Emergency Situations as Component Part of the Emergency Risk Management Framework

The article considers the issues of monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations in the implementation framework of the Russian Federation State politics in sphere of protection of population and territories from emergency situations. They are determined goals and tasks, highlighted special features and phases, revealed content of every one of enhancement directions of monitoring and forecasting of emergency situations as a component part of the emergency risk management framework.