New understanding on the principle of earthquake

Earthquake is a natural disaster that causes enormous losses to human society and its prediction is a major scientific challenge widely concerned by the society. However, the mechanism of earthquake is far from clear, and the mainstream view in the international seismology community is that earthquakes are unpredictable. Based on some new concepts and new knowledge developed in physics, this study scrutinizes the incubation and occurrence of earthquake from a novel perspective, and introduces a new understanding of earthquake principle. It is found that the view of earthquake unpredictability originates from the incorrect understanding of both earthquake principle and the self-organized criticality (SOC). That is to say, earthquake is consistent with the laws of SOC, which means it would be impossible to make a medium- or long-term prediction, yet the short-term prediction should still be possible. The preconditions for successful prediction include understanding correctly of earthquake principle, obtaining sufficient characteristic precursory information, and gathering relevant geological data. Traditional seismology is based on the solid continuum mechanics which holds the view that earthquakes are caused by brittle fracture of crustal rocks through the so-called “elastic rebound” mechanism. This point of view is seriously inconsistent with many field observations, cannot account for many seismic phenomena. It therefore cannot obtain and understand the earthquake precursory information correctly, and naturally reach the false conclusion that earthquake is unpredictable. Based on the simple fact that the crust is composed of rock blocks with fault gouges filling in between them, we treat the crust as a discrete system and understand the earthquake incubation process by means of granular physics. The new understanding gained is that the tectonic force propagates through force chains formed by the rock blocks, and the rock blocks move in the manner of stick-slip. Furthermore, by carefully analyzing how the strength of crustal rocks and the distributions of tectonic force vary with depth, we propose that the physical mechanism of earthquake is plastic sliding of rock and a jamming — unjamming transition of rock motion. Our novel theory on the earthquake principle and the earthquake processes can explain many seismological phenomena that could not be understood in terms of traditional seismology, such as the heat-flow paradox and the cause of deep-focus earthquake, etc. Based on this new understanding of earthquake principle, we put forward suggestions on how to obtain the earthquake precursory information correctly, so as to realize the goal of short-term prediction of earthquake.

Mechanism of Coal Bursts Induced by Horizontal Section Mining of Steeply Inclined Coal Seams and Application of Microseismic Multiparameter Monitoring in Early Warning

Coal bursts occurring in steeply inclined coal seams (SICSs) are increasingly severe. To solve this problem, a mechanical model for the distribution of static stress on coal-rock masses along panels and the distribution of dynamic load induced by the breakage of thick and hard roofs with propagation distance was established. The stress characteristics after a superposition of dynamic and static loads on the roof and floor roadways (Rr and Rf) were determined. In addition, precursory information characteristics and index sensitivities of four indices for dynamic loads and the CT index for static loads based on seismic tomography were separately analyzed. The monitoring and warning indices for SICSs and flat seams were compared. The results showed that the static stress of Rr was significantly higher than that of Rf, which provided a basis for the stress-triggering coal burst behaviors. Three indices for dynamic loads and seismic tomography results exhibited remarkable precursory information and high sensitivity. However, the performance of lack of shock index is poor. The continuous anomaly and the contradiction of indices at Rr and Rf can be considered as precursory information for predicting coal bursts.

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION ON MULTI-FRACTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF ACOUSTIC EMISSION OF COAL SAMPLES SUBJECTED TO TRUE TRIAXIAL LOADING–UNLOADING

Coal–rock dynamic disasters seriously threaten safe production in coal mines, and an effective early warning is especially important to reduce the losses caused by these disasters. The occurrence of coal–rock dynamic disasters is determined by mining-induced stress loading and unloading. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the precursory information of coal deformation and failure during true triaxial stress loading and unloading. In this study, the deformation and failure of coal samples subjected to true triaxial loading and unloading, including fixed axial stress and unloading confining stress (FASUCS), are experimentally investigated. Meanwhile, acoustic emission (AE) during the deformation of coal samples is monitored, and the multi-fractal characteristics of AE are analyzed. Furthermore, combined with the deformation and failure of coal samples, the precursory information of coal deformation and rupture during true triaxial stress loading and unloading is obtained. Finally, the relationship between multi-fractal characteristics and damage evolution of coal samples under FASUCS is discussed. The results show that the multi-fractal spectral widths of AE time series under the conditions of FASUCS with different initial confining stresses or unloading rates are quite different, but the dynamic changes of multi-fractal parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are similar. This indicates that the microscopic complexity of AE events of coal samples under different conditions of FASUCS differs, but the macroscopic generation mechanism of AE events has inherent uniformity. The dynamic changes of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] can reflect the stress and damage degree of coal samples. The dynamic change process of [Formula: see text] well accords with the damage evolution process of coal samples. A gradual decrease of [Formula: see text] corresponds to a slow increase of damage, while a sharp increase of it corresponds to a rapid growth of damage. At the same time, the mutation point of damage curve at distinct stress difference levels shares the same variation trend with the [Formula: see text] mutation point. The change of [Formula: see text] can reflect the damage process of coal samples, which can be used as precursor information for predicting coal–rock rupture. The finding is of great significance for the early warning of coal–rock dynamic disasters.

Assessing the Potential Earthquake Precursory Information in ULF Magnetic Data Recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000–2010: Distance and Magnitude Dependences

In order to clarify ultra-low-frequency (ULF) seismomagnetic phenomena, a sensitive geomagnetic network was installed in Kanto, Japan since 2000. In previous studies, we have verified the correlation between ULF magnetic anomalies and local sizeable earthquakes. In this study, we use Molchan’s error diagram to evaluate the potential earthquake precursory information in the magnetic data recorded in Kanto, Japan during 2000–2010. We introduce the probability gain (PG′) and the probability difference (D′) to quantify the forecasting performance and to explore the optimal prediction parameters for a given ULF magnetic station. The results show that the earthquake predictions based on magnetic anomalies are significantly better than random guesses, indicating the magnetic data contain potential useful precursory information. Further investigations suggest that the prediction performance depends on the choices of the distance (R) and size of the target earthquake events (Es). Optimal R and Es are about (100 km, 108.75) and (180 km, 108.75) for Seikoshi (SKS) station in Izu and Kiyosumi (KYS) station in Boso, respectively.

Energy Evolution and AE Failure Precursory Characteristics of Rocks with Different Rockburst Proneness

Mastering the precursory information of rock failure is the basis of scientifically predicting rockburst, and AE technology is an effective means to solve this problem. The conventional uniaxial loading and cyclic loading/unloading tests of metagabbro and granite were carried out with GAW-2000 uniaxial electrohydraulic rigid testing machine to evaluate rockburst proneness. The energy evolution and AE characteristics of rocks with different rockburst proneness during loading are revealed. The results show that the rockburst proneness of granite is obviously stronger than that of metagabbro based on the comprehensive evaluation method of multiple rockburst proneness index. The reasons for different rockburst proneness are analyzed from the perspective of mineral composition and microstructure. Rockburst proneness is positively correlated with energy storage capacity. The elastic energy ratio of granite is obviously larger than that of metagabbro before peak stress. The intensity of AE signals generated in the failure process of strong rockburst rock (granite) is significantly higher than that of moderate rockburst rock (metagabbro). However, the peak frequency bands and amplitude all increase obviously before failure. The b-value and memory characteristics of rock with different rockburst proneness have obvious similar change rules.

Time-varying probabilities of earthquake occurrence in central New Zealand based on the EEPAS model compensated for time-lag

SUMMARY The ‘Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale’ (EEPAS) model treats every earthquake as a precursor of larger earthquakes to follow it within a time-span ranging from months to decades, depending on magnitude. Each earthquake contributes a transient increment to the expected rate of earthquake occurrence in its vicinity, based on empirical predictive scaling relations associated with the precursory scale increase phenomenon. Incomplete information on precursory earthquakes causes the EEPAS model to underpredict the expected number of earthquakes, in particular when forecasting across a time-lag for periods beginning several years ahead. We demonstrate how the model can be modified to compensate for such time-lags when calculating future forecasts. Given the model parameters, the completeness of precursory information can be expressed as a function of the target earthquake magnitude and the time-lag. We consider two end-members for compensating the model for incompleteness. In one end-member, only the background smoothed-seismicity component of the EEPAS model is compensated, in the other, only the time-varying component of the EEPAS model is compensated. We estimate an optimal mixture of these two end-members for time-lags out to 12 yr, using several different versions of the EEPAS model and subsets of the New Zealand earthquake catalogue to which the models were previously fitted. Performance is checked on an independent test period. The optimal compensated model has increasingly high information gains over the original EEPAS model with increasing time-lags. Using catalogue data complete to 2018, the compensated models forecast increased annual probabilities of earthquake occurrence above magnitude thresholds from 6.0 to 8.0 in central New Zealand in the period 2019–2030 relative to the preceding period 2008–2018.

Quantitative Precursory Information of Weak Shocking Failures of Composite Soft Roof

To reveal the mechanism of weak roof shocking in mine roadway arranged in weakly consolidated soft rock strata commonly observed in western China, a bearing system of composite roof composed of weakly consolidated soft rocks and coal layers was proposed. Then, theoretical analysis and numerical calculation were applied for instability failures of the mass bearing system with strong body and weak body. Eventually, precursory information and criteria of instability failures of the bearing system were developed. The main conclusions obtained are as follows: (1) as the elastic energy released at the postpeak failure stage of weak body contributes to system failures, the equivalent stiffness for system failures consists of the stiffness of strong body and the deterioration stiffness of weak body at softening stage; (2) during the loading process of the two-body system, isochronous sudden jumps of the deformation rate in either body can be regarded as the precursory information of weak impact failures; (3) the frequency of sudden jumps of deformation rate is significantly related to the stiffness, indicating that weak impact failures are readily observed in composite soft roof as stiffnesses of weakly consolidated soft rocks and coal seam are close to each other. This study provides references for prevention and control of weak shocking disasters of composite roofs in western China.

Study on Multiparameter Precursory Information Identification of the Fracture of Yellow Sandstone

In order to explore the disaster caused by uncontrollable instability of coal and rock mass, a multiparameter fusion system is constructed to predict and predict disasters more accurately by identifying the mechanical and acoustic precursors of coal and rock fracture. In order to explore the precursor information of yellow sandstone rupture, the damage evolution process of yellow sandstone is analyzed from the four aspects of rock mechanics, acoustic emission time domain, frequency domain, and characteristic parameters, and the body strain, dissipated energy and acoustic emission counting, acoustic emission energy, average frequency, peak frequency, b value, and entropy value precursor information identification points are obtained, and 8 parameters are analyzed by time series fusion. The specific conclusions are as follows: body strain in the violent stage of damage evolution, the slope is zero, the zero end point is the precursor information identification point, the dissipative energy curve overall shows the “s” type, the early growth rate is faster—the medium-term stability—the later period is slowed down, and the upper slope boundary point of the “s” type curve is used as the precursor information identification point. In the violent stage of damage evolution, the layered features of the acoustic emission count are obvious, the specific gravity shift is more obvious, and the high count appears as the precursor information identification point; the acoustic emission energy accumulates the high-energy signal and is accompanied by the steady and rapid growth of energy as the precursor information identification point. The effects of shearing main cracks, shear microcracks, tensile cracks, and composite cracks on the acoustic emission count and energy in the damage evolution process are analyzed. The increase of medium- and high-frequency signals and the reduction of high-frequency signals predict the rupture. The average frequency signal change law is continuous high frequency-blank-continuous high frequency, with the blank period end point as the damage precursor identification point; the b value damage evolution stage shows a continuously steady increase to a rapid increase, with the continuous stable growth starting point as the crack identification point. In the process of damage evolution, the sample entropy presents an orderly, chaotic, disordered, and orderly process. The end of chaos and the beginning of disorder are used as the prejudging demarcation points. Based on the time sequence, an eight-parameter comprehensive early warning system is constructed. The indicators are classified into five levels for early warning in the stage of severe damage evolution. The identification of multiparameter precursory information of yellow sandstone provides a new research idea and analysis angle and method for the failure of other coal and rock masses.