The extreme warm summer 2018 in Sweden - set in a historical context

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renate Wilcke ◽  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Anders Moberg ◽  
Changgui Lin
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Observation Time ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Weather Observations ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Heat Indices ◽  
The Given

<p>Long-lasting high-pressure dominated weather resulting in remarkably warm and dry conditions in large parts of northern Europe during summer 2018. As a consequence, Sweden experienced a very long warm period with an unusual high number of warm days, which could be felt in many parts of the society. Groundwater shortage, many extensive forest fires (requiring assistance on European scale), health impacts on people, drought related shortage of food for livestock leading to emergency slaughter in many regions.According to SMHIs weather observations the average over Sweden for the four-month period May-August was on average 3.3K warmer than the 1961-1990 climatological mean.</p><p>Here, we evaluate climate conditions in Sweden during the summer 2018 in relation to the historical climate, reaching back to pre-industrial times. Basing the evaluation on long observation time series (150 years for some station across Sweden, and 250 years for Stockholm) as well as on 5 large ensembles from different global models, we want to assess to what extent an extreme event like the summer of 2018 may have changed as a result of global warming.</p><p>To grasp the character of summer 2018, not only daily values are considered, but also periods of heat days and heat indices describing the amplitude and length of an event.</p><p>With the extended length of the summer season, on account of an exceptional warm May, 2018 sets its record for many heat related indices and would have very unlikely been observed in pre-industrial times according to the given model data.</p>

Climate change attribution with large ensembles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Kirchmeier-Young ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Hui Wan
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
Robust Detection ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>The large sample sizes from single-model large ensembles are beneficial for a robust attribution of climate changes to anthropogenic forcing. This presentation will review examples using large ensembles in two types of attribution:  standard detection and attribution of spatio-temporal changes and extreme event attribution. First, increases in extreme precipitation have been attributed to anthropogenic forcing at large scales (global and hemispheric). We present results from a study that used three large ensembles, including two Earth System Models and one Regional Climate Model, to find a robust detection of a combined anthropogenic and natural forcing signal in the intensification of extreme precipitation at the continental scale and some regional scales in North America. Second, we use six large ensembles to assess the robustness of the attribution of extreme temperature and precipitation events. An event attribution framework is used and each large ensemble is treated as a perfect model. Robustness of the attribution is defined based on consistent agreement between the different models on a significant change in the probability of an event with the inclusion of anthropogenic forcing. We demonstrate that the attribution of extreme temperature events is robust. Meanwhile, the attribution of extreme precipitation events becomes robust in many regions under additional warming, but uncertainties pertaining to changes in atmospheric dynamics hinder attribution confidence in other regions. We also demonstrate that smaller ensembles bring larger uncertainty to event attribution.</p>

scholarly journals A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1165-1180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Schittek ◽  
Sebastian T. Kock ◽  
Andreas Lücke ◽  
Jonathan Hense ◽  
Christian Ohlendorf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Altitude ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The 19Th Century

Abstract. High-altitude cushion peatlands are versatile archives for high-resolution palaeoenvironmental studies, due to their high accumulation rates, range of proxies, and sensitivity to climatic and/or human-induced changes. Especially within the Central Andes, the knowledge about climate conditions during the Holocene is limited. In this study, we present the environmental and climatic history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland (CTP), located in the dry Puna of NW Argentina, based on a multi-proxy approach. X-ray fluorescence (XRF), stable isotope and element content analyses (δ13C, δ15N, TN and TOC) were conducted to analyse the inorganic geochemistry throughout the sequence, revealing changes in the peatlands' past redox conditions. Pollen assemblages give an insight into substantial environmental changes on a regional scale. The palaeoclimate varied significantly during the last 2100 years. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that in situ moisture changes were coupled to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). A period of sustained dry conditions prevailed from around 150 BC to around AD 150. A more humid phase dominated between AD 200 and AD 550. Afterwards, the climate was characterised by changes between drier and wetter conditions, with droughts at around AD 650–800 and AD  1000–1100. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century (1815 Tambora eruption) seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes. In the past, the peatland recovered from climatic perturbations. Today, CTP is heavily degraded by human interventions, and the peat deposit is becoming increasingly susceptible to erosion and incision.

scholarly journals Translating Fire Impacts in Southwestern Amazonia into Economic Costs

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley Campanharo ◽  
Aline Lopes ◽  
Liana Anderson ◽  
Thiago da Silva ◽  
Luiz Aragão
Keyword(s):  
Land Tenure ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Conservation Areas ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Burned Areas

Between 1998 and 2017, climate-related disasters represented 91% of all occurrences worldwide, causing approximately US$ 2.245 billion of direct economic losses. In the Amazon region, fire is used as a widely spread technique for land clearing, agricultural management, hunting, and religious rituals. However, over the past 20 years, severe droughts caused a major amplification of fire occurrences, leading to several socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Particularly in Acre state, located in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon, the occurrence of extensive fires, associated with extreme climatic events, has been reported since 2005. However, fire dynamics, land tenure relationships, and associated impacts are poorly quantified. In this study, we aim to investigate the following: (1) The spatiotemporal variability of fire dynamics during anomalously dry and regular climate conditions; (2) the attribution of fire occurrence and land tenure relationship, and (3) the environmental, social, and economic impacts caused by fires and its consequences for Acre’s economy. We analyzed information on the spatial patterns of fire, its direct impacts on land use and land cover, carbon stocks, CO2 emissions, the indirect impact on human illness, and finally the costs of these impacts from 2008 to 2012. During the studied period, burned areas were concentrated around the major cities and roads, forming polygons up to 0.6 km2. However, in 2010, an extremely dry year, fires spread to remote areas, impacting protected private areas and sustainable-use conservation areas. In 2010, the total area affected by forest fires was approximately 16 times greater than in meteorologically normal years. The total economic loss estimated in 2010 was around US$ 243.36 ± 85.05 million and for the entire period, US$ 307.46 ± 85.41 million. These values represent 7.03 ± 2.45% and 9.07 ± 2.46% of Acre’s gross domestic product (GDP), respectively.

Insights into the African Humid Period from fossil stromatolites and Etheria elliptica shells from the Chew Bahir Basin, southern Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Nickolaus ◽  
Monika Markowska ◽  
Hubert Vonhof ◽  
Hervé Bocherens ◽  
Ashley Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Resolution ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Southern Ethiopia ◽  
Rift System ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
East African Rift System ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Humid Period

<p>In the context of human evolution and dispersal in Africa, it is important to understand past climate conditions and changes as possible drivers of these processes. One of the most recent climatic events was the end of the African Humid Period (AHP) at around 5 ka BP. This was marked by a decrease in precipitation following a long wet-phase in northern and eastern Africa, which caused many lakes to decrease in size or even desiccate. Although the termination of the AHP is well known, the timing and rate of the transition from wet to dry conditions is still heavily debated. To investigate the termination of the AHP at a high temporal resolution (subdecadal and subannual), fossil stromatolites and <em>Etheria elliptica</em> shells from paleo-shorelines in the Chew Bahir Basin, southern Ethiopia, were collected. Today, Lake Chew Bahir is a deltaic swamp, however in past pluvials a large lake was present that likely overflowed and connected to other basins similar to other amplifier lakes in the East African Rift System. Radiocarbon dating, oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses, trace element analyses and petrographic mapping of stromatolite laminae structure were conducted. A strong correlation between δ<sup>18</sup>O and δ<sup>13</sup>C shows that paleo-lake Chew Bahir likely experienced highly evaporative conditions and indicate an endorheic state of the basin in times of stromatolite growth at 7.1, 5.8, 4.7 and 4.6 ka BP. Furthermore, our findings suggest highly fluctuating environmental conditions during these times and demonstrate that the transition to drier conditions was not a strictly linear trend. In summary, the stromatolites and <em>Etheria elliptica</em> shells are an excellent environmental archive due to their high temporal resolution, precise dating (± 30 yrs) and an indication of the paleo-lake water depth. These types of records provide insights to past changes in freshwater availability, the variability of which would have had large consequences for humans living in the region.</p>

scholarly journals Sustainable food production with greenhouse technologies

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gy. Gonda ◽  
Y. M. Mubarak Al-AliNoor ◽  
M. Fekete-Farkas ◽  
L. Helyes
Keyword(s):  
Food Supply ◽  
Food Production ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Vegetable Production ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Sustainable Food ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Given ◽  
Desert Climate ◽  
Market Restructuring

The greenhouse fruit and vegetable production is one important area which supports sustainability. To achievesustainable economy and growth, the given natural resources have to be used in a smarter, renewable way in order to avoiddepleting them. New technologies and new methods are developed and implemented to utilize resources in more optimized way.Sustainable food supply is essential globally for the world, however it has to be managed and achieved on local levels. We presentthe greenhouse production market restructuring with new players. What kind of difficulties arise in the open field vegetableproduction and what benefits can be realized by the customers and producers from the covered greenhouse technology in thecontinental and desert climate? What are the technical boundary conditions to establish and operate greenhouse production indifferent regions and what are the benefits realized from local food production? As an example, we analyse Qatar’s energetics,climate conditions and food resources, Qatar’s food supply process and its barriers. We will show how the sustainability andfood safety appear in Qatar’s National Strategy Plan.

scholarly journals Detection and Monitoring a Forest Fire using GSM Module

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VII) ◽  
pp. 1914-1922
Author(s):  
Patil N S
Keyword(s):  
Internet Of Things ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Residential Area ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Simulation Program ◽  
Fire Detector ◽  
The Given

In the present arena, wildlife and forest departments are facing the problem of movement of animals from forest area to residential area. The number of trees has reduced drastically from the forest that creates an unhealthy environment for animals to survive in the forest. It has been found in a survey that 80% losses are caused due to fire. This could have been avoided if the fire was detected in the early stages. This project proposes a system for tracking and alarming for the protection of trees against forest fires. Nowadays IOT (Internet of Things) devices and sensors allow the monitoring of different environmental variables, such as temperature, humidity, moisture etc. Arduino platform based IOT enabled fire detector and monitoring system is the solution to this problem. In this project we have built fire detector using ESP32 which is interfaced with a fire sensor and a buzzer. In order to implement this project, we will be using GSM which is used to provide the final SMS to the user through the given number in the simulation program. The sensor data is displayed on LCD. Whenever a fire occurs, the system automatically senses and alerts the user by sending an alert to an app installed on user’s android mobile.

scholarly journals Productivity and elements of its structure of the new pea lines

2018 ◽  
pp. 26-28
Author(s):  
A. R. Ashiev ◽  
М. V. Skulova ◽  
K. N. Khabibullin
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Standard Variety ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Grain Productivity ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Economically Valuable Traits ◽  
The Given ◽  
Fineness Of Grain ◽  
Seed Growing ◽  
Variety Testing

The studies were carried out in 2016–2018 in the competitive variety testing of peas on the crop rotation fields belonging to the laboratory of legume breeding and seed-growing of the FSBSI “Agricultural Research Center “Donskoy”, located in the part of the Rostov region with unstable humidity (Zernograd). During the years of research, the meteorological conditions of the pea vegetation were contrast that made it possible to objectively estimate the pea lines in the given weather and climate conditions. In the com­petitive variety testing, the 18 lines were studied according to economically valuable traits (seed productivity, productivity elements, adaptability to machine harvesting). As a result of the study, the 6 pea lines were identified: 2 lines of the mustache morphotype “G-1002”, “G-1003”; 4 leafy lines “G-1010”, “G-1011”, “G-1013” and “G-1015”. In the group of the mustache morphotype, 2 lines “G-1002” (on 0.30 t/ha), “G-1003” (on 0.39 t/ha) exceeded the grain productivity of the standard variety for 3 years of study on aver­age. The productivity increase was from 12.4 to 16.1%. In the group of variety samples of the leafy morphotype, the line “G-1010” (on 0.31 t/ha) significantly exceeded grain productivity of the standard variety. All the selected lines were tolerant to their seed-shedding. The line “G-1010” (48.8 pc per plant) showed the highest seed yield per plant. The lines “G-1003” (222.1 g), “G-1011” (209.5 g) and “G-1013” (207.8 g) had the largest fineness of grain. The line “G-1010” (8.85 g/plant) demonstrated the highest productivity per plant. However, having a low coefficient of resistance to lodging (0.35), this line has the greatest loss of seeds during harvesting. The iden­tified lines will be used in further breeding work according to a number of their economically valuable traits.

scholarly journals STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS IN FORESTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-52
Author(s):  
Natal'ya Evsikova ◽  
V. Lisitsyn ◽  
I. Terekhina
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Woody Plants ◽  
Gaussian Function ◽  
Temperature Fluctuations ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Degree Of Certainty ◽  
Sufficient Degree ◽  
The Given

When forecasting forest fires, particular importance is attached to the analysis of air temperature changes. Along with data such as precipitation and wind speed, temperature is a basic parameter for determining the drying rate of combustible materials and determining the parameters of the threat of fires (Nesterov index). At the same time, little importance is attached to studies of the patterns of changes in the probability distribution of the temperature fluctuations magnitude during the year. Temperature studies are descriptive, as a rule, estimates diverge, and the boundaries of the given intervals are blurred. The paper has analyzed the nature of the probability distribution of daily temperature fluctuations in the period from January to May. The analysis is based on known and regularly measured data. The results of the analysis of the data of measurements of the temperature of the day and evening showed that the probability distribution can be modeled by the Gaussian function with a sufficient degree of certainty. The parameters of Gaussian function characterize the features of the processes stimulated by temperature changes in the trunks of woody plants. In addition, it turned out that the most likely value of fluctuations is steadily increasing from January to March. It is known that in March intense sap flow occurs in the absence of transpiration currents. Therefore, we can confidently assume that at this time the upward currents in the tree trunks are thermally stimulated.

scholarly journals Wie oft brannte der Walliser Wald im 20. Jahrhundert? | Forest fire occurrences in Canton Valais in the 20th century

2004 ◽  
Vol 155 (10) ◽  
pp. 437-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urs Gimmi ◽  
Matthias Bürgi ◽  
Thomas Wohlgemuth
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
The Past ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Swiss Canton ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Forest Use

In August 2003, a disastrous fire destroyed some 300 ha of forest near Leuk in the Swiss Canton of Valais. This extreme event heightened, for a time at least, public awareness of forest fires and triggered various research activities. Forest fires play an important part in the forest dynamics of the Valais. In this article we present a historical database, which contains data on outbreaks of fire over the past 100 years. The temporal variability of forest fires is analysed and possible relations to climate change and changes in forest use discussed. Three of the largest fires are presented as case studies (Ochsenboden in July 1921, Aletschwald/Riederhorn in May 1944 and Pfynwald in July 1962). Although wide areas of forest have been burnt in past fires, no outbreak in the last 100 years reached the extent of the forest fire of Leuk in 2003.

scholarly journals Professional Self-Development of a Teacher of a Higher Education Institution: Interdisciplinary Aspect

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Olesia Smolinska ◽  
Khrystyna Dzyubynska
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Educational Institution ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Education Institution ◽  
Dual Nature ◽  
Self Development ◽  
Generalized Patterns ◽  
Professional Self ◽  
The University ◽  
The Given

This article deals with the urgent problem of teacher’s professional self-development at a higher educational institution, based on normative and acmeological aspects. In the process of achieving this goal – which is the study of the peculiarities of professional self-development in the terms of Ukrainian higher education in its cultural and historical context – the analysis of such problems, as the transformation of forms of consciousness into educational interactions; professional archetype of a teacher; the transformation of the content of professional self-development, was conducted. The given problem has practical meaning. It means that there are a number of objective factors, which influence the essence of a teacher's professional self-development, as a process, connected with the concept of lifelong education, and turn it into a component of the creation of professional identity. We came to the following conclusions: firstly, concerning the dual nature of professional and personal identity (real and imaginary, virtual), which is objectified in the cultural and educational space of the university; secondly, studying the peculiarities of the teacher's self-development,special attention should be paid to appropriate archetypes as culturally conditioned generalized patterns; thirdly, a change in the type of teacher’s professional self-development is caused by both the transformation of the character of the person’s identity and the change of archetype 

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