scholarly journals Forecast of Changes in Air Temperatures and Heat Indices in the Sevastopol Region in the 21st Century and Their Impacts on Viticulture

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 954
Author(s):  
Elena Vyshkvarkova ◽  
Evgeniy Rybalko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Limiting Factor ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Temperature Indices ◽  
Heat Indices

Climate is a limiting factor in viticulture, as it defines favorable areas, grape cultivars, and agrotechnical activities. In the Sevastopol region, viticulture is the main and promising agricultural branch. Using the outputs of the regional climate models from the CORDEX project, the projections of agroclimatic conditions in the Sevastopol region for two future periods (2021–2045 and 2046–2070) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained. The results in our study show the trend of temperature indices rise (average growing season temperature, effective heat sum, Winkler and Huglin indices) and the region’s transition to higher classes, especially during the second future period (2046–2070). However, despite the higher temperature indices, the Sevastopol region will remain suitable for the growing of grapes cultivars with all ripening periods.

scholarly journals Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6923-6935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael A. Rawlins ◽  
Raymond S. Bradley ◽  
Henry F. Diaz ◽  
John S. Kimball ◽  
David A. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

Abstract This study used air temperatures from a suite of regional climate models participating in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) together with two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to investigate changes in freezing days (defined as days with daily average temperature below freezing) likely to occur between 30-yr baseline (1971–2000) and midcentury (2041–70) periods across most of North America. Changes in NARCCAP ensemble mean winter temperature show a strong gradient with latitude, with warming of over 4°C near Hudson Bay. The decline in freezing days ranges from less than 10 days across north-central Canada to nearly 90 days in the warmest areas of the continent that currently undergo seasonally freezing conditions. The area experiencing freezing days contracts by 0.9–1.0 × 106 km2 (5.7%–6.4% of the total area). Areas with mean annual temperature between 2° and 6°C and a relatively low rate of change in climatological daily temperatures (<0.2°C day−) near the time of spring thaw will encounter the greatest decreases in freezing days. Advances in the timing of spring thaw will exceed the delay in fall freeze across much of the United States, with the reverse pattern likely over most of Canada.

scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON PROJECTED PV POWER POTENTIAL UNDER RCP 8.5 SCENARIO IN BURUNDI

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Marc Niyongendako ◽  
Agnidé Emmanuel Lawin ◽  
Célestin Manirakiza ◽  
Serge Dimitri Yikwé Buri Bazyomo ◽  
Batablinlè Lamboni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Potential Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Near Future

This work focuses on analysis of climate change effects on Photovoltaic (PV) power output in the Eastern and Northeastern of Burundi. Monthly temperature data from meteorological stations and solar irradiance data provided by SoDa database were considered as observed dataset for the historical period 1981-2010. Projection climate data from eight Regional Climate Models of CORDEX for Africa were used over the near future period 2021-2050. The change in temperature and solar irradiance were analyzed and the effects of these climate changes were assessed to show their impacts on PV power potential. The results indicated increasing trends and change in temperature for about 2°C over this near future period. The solar irradiance change was revealed negative with a high interannual variation for all regions and the mean decrease ranges between 2 and 4 W/m². The findings revealed also a negative change in PV power potential close to zero for all regions with a high change occurred in NLL. Indeed, the contribution of each parameter to PV power potential change was negative all over regions. However, the projected climate change does not predict a huge PV power potential change by 2050. Therefore, Burundi may invest in producing electricity energy from PV systems.

scholarly journals Towards the use of dynamic growing seasons in a chemical transport model

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 12137-12180 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sakalli ◽  
D. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Two Parameters

Abstract. Chemical transport models (CTMs), used for the prediction of, for example, nitrogen deposition or air quality changes, require estimates of the growing season of plants for a number of reasons. Typically, the growing seasons are defined in a very simplified way in CTMs, using e.g. fixed dates or simple functions. In order to explore the importance of more realistic growing season estimates, we have developed a new and simple method (the “T5” method) for calculating the start of the growing season (SGS) of birch (which we use as a surrogate for deciduous trees), suitable for use in CTMs and other modelling systems. We developed the “T5” method from observations, and here we compare with these and other methodologies, and show that with just two parameters “T5” captures well the spatial variation in SGS across Europe. We use the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model to illustrate the importance of improved SGS estimates for ozone and two metrics associated with ozone-damage to vegetation. This study shows that although inclusion of more realistic growing seasons has only small effects on annual average concentrations of pollutants such as ozone, the metrics associated with vegetation-risk from ozone are significantly affected. This work demonstrates a strong need to include more realistic treatments of growing seasons in CTMs. The method used here could also be suitable for other types of models which require information on vegetation cover, such as meteorological and regional climate models. In future work, the “T5” and other methods will also be further evaluated for use with agricultural and grassland land-covers, which are important for emissions and deposition of reactive nitrogen compounds.

scholarly journals FUTURE DROUGHT PROJECTION FOR THE GREEK REGION

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1038
Author(s):  
C. Anagnostopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Spi Index ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Greek Region

Drought is one of the most important factors of change. The epi-drops drought in one area are complex because they simultaneously affect many areas, such as climate, agriculture, the economy and in general the structure of society. This study deals only with the meteorological drought, particularly considering the phenomenon of drought through the index Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Greece is characterized by frequent drought episodes that often exceed 10 consecutive days of drought (dry spells). Also, in recent years the area probably climate models have been used in a wide study of the impact of climate change in different regions on the planet. Rainfall data from five regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to calculate the SPI index in the Greek area, the reporting period and two subsequent periods by the end of the 21st century. All models show a decreasing trend of the SPI median during the period studied. For the first future period 2021-2050, there is a clear signal for a dry decade towards the end of the period that is most apparent in southern and island regions. On the other hand, in the second future period 2071-2100, there is an increasing trend resulting to normal or wetter years.

scholarly journals The Effects of Climate Change on Variability of the Growing Seasons in the Elbe River Lowland, Czech Republic

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Potopová ◽  
Pavel Zahradníček ◽  
Luboš Türkott ◽  
Petr Štěpánek ◽  
Josef Soukup
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Elbe River ◽  
Study Region ◽  
The Elbe River ◽  
Projected Changes

This research aimed to identify an approach for adaptation of agriculture to increased climate variability and projected changes, taking into account regional specificity of climate change. Changes in the timing of growing season (GS) parameters for both observation and models data were computed using daily mean temperatures for three thresholds that correspond to the physiological requirements of the vegetable types. This research included a new assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the GS of vegetables grown in the Elbe River lowland, one of the largest farmed vegetable regions in Central Europe. To accomplish this, a comprehensive analysis was conducted of the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the beginning of the growing season (BGS), the date of the end of the growing season (EGS), and the length of the growing season (GSL) for the period 1961–2011. In addition, an assessment was made of the potential changes in the dates of the BGS, EGS, and GSL for the Elbe River lowland, simulated using the regional climate models. Prospective areas for growing thermophilic vegetables in the study region were also determined.

scholarly journals Towards the use of dynamic growing seasons in a chemical transport model

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 5161-5179 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sakalli ◽  
D. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Two Parameters

Abstract. Chemical transport models (CTMs), used for the prediction of, for example, nitrogen deposition or air quality changes, require estimates of the growing season of plants for a number of reasons. Typically, the growing seasons are defined in a very simplified way in CTMs, using fixed dates or simple functions. In order to explore the importance of more realistic growing season estimates, we have developed a new and simple method (the T5 method) for calculating the start of the growing season (SGS) of birch (which we use as a surrogate for deciduous trees), suitable for use in CTMs and other modelling systems. We developed the T5 method from observations, and here we compare with these and other methodologies, and show that with just two parameters T5 captures well the spatial variation in SGS across Europe. We use the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model to illustrate the importance of improved SGS estimates for ozone and two metrics associated with ozone damage to vegetation. This study shows that although inclusion of more realistic growing seasons has only small effects on annual average concentrations of pollutants such as ozone, the metrics associated with vegetation risk from ozone are significantly affected. This work demonstrates a strong need to include more realistic treatments of growing seasons in CTMs. The method used here could also be suitable for other types of models that require information on vegetation cover, such as meteorological and regional climate models. In future work, the T5 and other methods will be further evaluated for other forest species, as well as for agricultural and grassland land covers, which are important for emissions and deposition of reactive nitrogen compounds.

Regional Climate Scenarios for use in Nordic Water Resources Studies

2003 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 399-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rummukainen ◽  
J. Räisänen ◽  
D. Bjørge ◽  
J.H. Christensen ◽  
O.B. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Soil Frost ◽  
Nordic Region ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

scholarly journals Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Mahoney ◽  
James D. Scott ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
Rachel McCrary ◽  
Mimi Hughes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Projected Change

AbstractUnderstanding future precipitation changes is critical for water supply and flood risk applications in the western United States. The North American COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (NA-CORDEX) matrix of global and regional climate models at multiple resolutions (~ 50-km and 25-km grid spacings) is used to evaluate mean monthly precipitation, extreme daily precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western United States, with a sub-regional focus on California. Results indicate significant model spread in mean monthly precipitation in several key water-sensitive areas in both historical and future projections, but suggest model agreement on increasing daily extreme precipitation magnitudes, decreasing seasonal snowpack, and a shortening of the wet season in California in particular. While the beginning and end of the California cool season are projected to dry according to most models, the core of the cool season (December, January, February) shows an overall wetter projected change pattern. Daily cool-season precipitation extremes generally increase for most models, particularly in California in the mid-winter months. Finally, a marked projected decrease in future seasonal SWE is found across all models, accompanied by earlier dates of maximum seasonal SWE, and thus a shortening of the period of snow cover as well. Results are discussed in the context of how the diverse model membership and variable resolutions offered by the NA-CORDEX ensemble can be best leveraged by stakeholders faced with future water planning challenges.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document