Proportion and distribution of rain and snow in China from 1960 to 2018

Rainfall and snowfall have different effects on energy balance calculations and land-air interactions in terrestrial models. The identification of precipitation types is crucial to understand climate change dynamics and the utilization of water resources. However, information regarding precipitation types is not generally available. The precipitation obtained from meteorological stations across China recorded types only before 1979. This study parameterized precipitation types with air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure from 1960 to 1979, and then identified precipitation types after 1980. Results show that the main type of precipitation in China was rainfall, and the average annual rainfall days (amounts) across China accounted for 83.08% (92.55%) of the total annual precipitation days (amounts). The average annual snowfall days (amounts) in the northwestern region accounted for 32.27% (19.31%) of the total annual precipitation days (amounts), which is considerably higher than the national average. The average annual number of rainfall and snowfall days both displayed a downward trend while the average annual amounts of these two precipitation types showed an upward trend, but without significance at 0.1 levels. The annual number of rainfall and snowfall days in the southwestern region decreased significantly (-2.27 d/decade and -0.31 d/decade, p < 0.01). The annual rainfall amounts in the Jianghuai region increased significantly (40.70 mm/decade, p < 0.01), and the areas with the most significant increase in snowfall amounts were the northwestern (3.64 mm/decade, p < 0.01). These results can inform our understanding of the distribution and variation of precipitation with different types in China.

Mud volcanism as a dangerous phenomenon for oil and gas facilities

The research dwells on the danger of mud volcanism for human economic activity, namely, oil and gas production. We performed quantitative assessment of mud volcanoes activities, using Azerbaijan and Kerch-Taman region as examples. Average annual number of mud volcanoes eruptions is 3–4 for Azerbaijan and 1–2 for Kerch-Taman region. We estimate the catalogues of mud volcanic eruptions for those areas to be 52 % and 39 % complete, respectively. Mud volcanoes eruptions are quite frequent. In both regions, over 50 % of all recorded eruptions occur within ten years of the latest eruption. Analysis of mud volcanic eruptions catalogues shows that the volume of breccia ejected during an eruption is practically not related to how long the mud volcano was quiescent. Analysis of potential impact of seismicity on mud volcanic activity shows that the probability of mud volcanoes responding to an earthquake is 6 % and 10 % for Azerbaijan and Kerch-Taman region, respectively.

Effects of Interval Flooding Stress on Physiological Characteristics of Apple Leaves

As a result of the continuous global warming in recent years, the average annual number of rain days in China has been on the decline, while the number of rainstorm days has gradually increased. These conditions make it extremely easy to form a waterlogging environment, which has an adverse impact on plant growth and development. In many apple-producing areas in China, apples are subject to severe flooding during planting. In this study, two-year-old apple rootstock M9T337 was used to explore the effects of interval water stress on the morphological and physiological parameters of apple leaves. The purpose was to determine the plant’s adaptability to waterlogged environments and provide theoretical reference for management and maintenance after waterlogging. The results showed that the effect on flooded (T2) on apple stock was greater than that of waterlogged (T1), Short-term (7 d) waterlogging (T1) did not affect the growth of seedlings but was conducive to the accumulation of dry matter. Furthermore, the initial stress was be imprinted on the plants, which could directly affect their response to later stress. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that PC1, PC2, and PC3 explained 26.92%, 17.46%, and 13.03% of the physiological changes under water stress, respectively. By calculating the weight of each indicator, we concluded that high-frequency resistance r, relative chlorophyll content (SPAD) and maximum photochemical efficiency Fv/Fm are important parameters for apple rootstocks affected by water stress.

Impact of demographic processes on the regional economy

В статье проведена работа по описанию теоретико-методологической базы прогнозирования демографических процессов в контексте их влияния на социально-экономическое развитие территории, в частности, на промышленный сектор экономики. В проведенном исследовании были спрогнозированы значения объема отгруженных товаров собственного производства, выполненных работ и услуг собственными силами; среднегодовой численности занятых в экономике и производительности труда в Ростовской области к 2020 г. и 2030 г., а также представлен комплекс правительственных инициатив, направленных на улучшение демографической ситуации мерами социально-экономической политики. Актуальность статьи обусловлена тем, что в современных условиях одним из ключевых индикаторов качества управления регионом со стороны органов исполнительной власти является демографическая ситуация, формирующая человеческий капитал как основу экономического роста региона, и, как, следствие, его конкурентоспособности. Рассматриваемая в данной статье тема будет интересна, в первую очередь, специалистам, занимающимся демографической политики в региональных органах исполнительной власти, а также широкому кругу экономистов, изучающих вопросы социально-экономического развития. The article describes the theoretical and methodological basis for forecasting demographic processes in the context of their impact on the socio-economic development of the territory, in particular, on the industrial sector of the economy. In the study, the values of the volume of shipped goods of own production, works and services performed on their own were predicted; the average annual number of people employed in the economy and labor productivity in the Rostov region by 2020 and 2030, as well as a set of government initiatives aimed at improving the demographic situation by means of socio-economic policy. The relevance of the article is due to the fact that in modern conditions one of the key indicators of the quality of regional management on the part of the executive authorities is the demographic situation, which forms human capital as the basis of economic the growth of the region, and, as a consequence, its competitiveness. The topic considered in this article will be useful for specialists involved in demographic policy in regional executive bodies, as well as to a wide range of economists studying issues of socio-economic development.

VETERINARY SERVICE OF THE DAIRY COMPLEX: PROBLEMS AND WAYS TO SOLVE THEM

The article analyzes the activities of the veterinary service of a large livestock enterprise during which it was found that the average annual number of sick cows with one or another non-infectious pathology is 968 heads (30 % of the total livestock), while medical work is only 16 % of the total labor costs. in addition, the responsibilities of veterinary specialists include conducting diagnostic studies, preventive vaccinations, measures for the prevention of non-communicable pathology at the complex, veterinary and sanitary work, etc. The analysis of the need for veterinary specialists of the analyzed agricultural organization was carried out to establish the compliance of the existing number of veterinary service workers with the standards, calculations found that 13 veterinary specialists are needed for effective veterinary service of the farm, with 8 available.

COMPARISON OF WORLD WIDE LIGHTNING LOCATION NETWORK (WWLLN) DATA AND STANDARD OBSERVATIONS AT WEATHER STATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN RUSSIAN FAR EAST

Standard observations at 20 weather stations were compared with data of the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) in the south of the Russian Far East for the period of 2009-2018. Using two statistical methods, the estimates are obtained of the radii of the circular region of the WWLLN data sample, at which the best consistency of the WWLLN data with the number of days with thunderstorms according to weather station data is observed. It is shown that these radii are in the range from 12 to 36 km for all stations, with an average value of 23 km. Daytime radii are smaller than nighttime ones, the average values for all stations are equal to 21 and 26 km, respectively. It is demonstrated that an increase/decrease in the radius of the WWLLN data sample by 1 km leads to an increase/decrease in the average annual number of days with WWLLN lightnings relative to weather reports by ~1 day.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of mechanisms for eliminating flooding of urbanized areas with surface runoff

Подтопления урбанизированных территорий, когда вода в периоды ливневых дождей поднимается на поверхность, затапливая улицы и подвалы, наблюдаются достаточно часто. Происходят они по разным причинам или их совокупности. Перечень мероприятий для сокращения количества таких подтоплений в мировой практике отработан. К ним можно отнести мероприятия, направленные на уменьшение коэффициента стока водосборных площадей, а также на увеличение свободных регулирующих объемов сетей и коллекторов и т. п. Однако оценка их эффективности в Российской Федерации затруднена в связи с тем, что нормативный метод гидравлического расчета предусматривает учет значений периодов однократного превышения расчетных интенсивностей дождей p, который указывает, с какой периодичностью переполняются сети. Но этот метод не отвечает на вопрос, с какой периодичностью pp происходят затопления территорий в результате выхода воды на поверхность. На примере Санкт-Петербурга приведен расчетный метод для определения среднегодового числа затоплений, а также результаты оценки эффективности мероприятий, направленных на их сокращение. Flooding of urbanized areas happens quite often, while, during periods of heavy rains, water rises to the surface flooding streets and basements. Flooding occurs for different reasons or due to their combination. The list of measures to reduce the flooding rate has been worked out in the world practice. These include measures aimed at reducing the runoff coefficient of drainage areas, as well as increasing the spare regulating capacities of the networks and sewers, etc. However, evaluating their effectiveness in the Russian Federation is complicated by the fact that the standard method of hydraulic calculation provides for taking into account the values ​​of the periods of one-time excess of the calculated rainfall rates p that indicates the overflow rate in the networks. However, this method does not determine the rate pp of area flooding that results from the water spills. Through the example of St. Petersburg, a calculation method is presented for determining the average annual number of floods, as well as the results of evaluating the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing them.

Analysis and numerical comparative assessment of risks of emergency situations of technogenic character in the territory of Ukraine

Subject. Processes of man-made emergencies on the territory of the state and its regions. Theme of work. Analysis and quantitative comparative assessment of risks of man-made emergencies on the territory of Ukraine. The purpose of the work. Comprehensive analysis of risks of man-made emergencies on the territory of the state and determination of the most technogenic regions of the country. Research methodology. Comparative assessment of the state of man-made threats of the territory and population of the regions of the state is carried out by comparing the average annual number of man-made emergencies in each region and the state as a whole, taking into account the density of the population. Criteria for classification of the territory and population of the regions of the state according to the level of man-made threats are proposed: relatively optimal, relatively acceptable, unacceptable. Research results. The method of quantitative comparative assessment of risks of emergencies of technogenic character on the territory of the state is offered and regions of the country with rather optimum, rather admissible and unacceptable level of technogenic threats for the territory and the population of regions of the state are defined. Conclusions and scope of research results. The analysis of the state of man-caused danger in the regions of Ukraine showed that each of them has its own levels of man-made threat, which must be taken into account to adequately respond to emergencies of different nature. As a result of research on the basis of the proposed methodology, it is established that the unacceptable level of man-made threats to the territory and population is typical for Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Lviv regions. This indicates the low effectiveness of measures to prevent man-made emergencies in these areas of the country. The obtained results of the research are the foundation for substantiation of organizational and technical measures to prevent and adequately respond to civil defense forces to emergencies of man-made nature both in the state and its regions.

ABOUT VALIDATION OF MODELS OF FUNCTIONING OF HIERARCHICAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

The aim of the study is to test the hypothesis about the possibility of using models of the functioning of hierarchical socioeconomic systems for a shortterm forecast. The models of the power multiplicative form – production functions describing the dependence of the volume of the gross domestic product by region on the cost of fixed production assets, the average annual number of employees and investments in fixed assets for the section «Manufacturing» (NACE) are considered. Three types of models based on data for the regions of the Central Federal District for 2007–2018 were tested. The parameters of the first model used in calculating the standards for each of the regions were found using OLS for a combined sample for a set of regions. The parameters of the models of the second type were obtained from the data for each of the regions separately by solving the optimization problem taking into account the constraints on changes in the coefficients of the model of the first type with a 95% confidence probability. The parameters of the models of the third type were found from samples for each of the regions without taking into account constraints on the coefficients of the model using OLS. A comparative analysis of the calculated (according to three models) and actual values of the gross domestic product by region volume was carried out using the average relative error according to the 2019 data for each of the regions and the district as a whole. With the exception of the Moscow region, all values fall within the specified range of values predicted by the normative model. The hypothesis is partially confirmed.

Analysis of the meteorological situation in the conditions of icing and ice

The article is devoted to the study of the problem of ensuring the safety of aircraft on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and, directly, on the territory of the Minsk airfield. Icing and ice are some of the most dangerous meteorological phenomena for aviation. In order to prevent accidents related to these phenomena, it is necessary to have a clear idea of the laws of their occurrence and distribution, as well as their relationship to each other. To study the spatial and temporal patterns of ice distribution, the actual meteorological data of Belhydromet for 1989–2016 were processed at all meteorological stations of the Republic of Belarus. Also, charts of the chronological progress of the average monthly number of days with ice and the average annual number of days with ice at all meteorological stations on the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the above period were constructed and analyzed. The tendency to change the average annual number of days with ice over the period from 1989 to 2016 is analysed. The icing analysis for 2014–2018 was also carried out according to the data of the Civil Aviation Meteorological Station «Minsk». The accompanying meteorological elements, such as the shape of the clouds, the direction and strength of the wind, air temperature, as well as the synoptic situation, are analysed. The map of the spatio-temporal distribution of ice is constructed using ArcGIS by the method of equal intervals.