Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Does Spending Composition Matter?

This paper studies whether changes in the composition of public spending affect the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations. Based on a sample of 44 developing countries and 26 advanced economies during 1980-2019, results show that while fiscal consolidations tend to be on average, contractionary, the size of the output fall depends on the behavior of public investment vis-a-vis public consumption during the fiscal adjustment, with heterogeneous responses growing over time. When public investment is penalized relative to public consumption and thus, its share in public expenditures decreases, a 1 percent of GDP consolidation reduces output by 0.7 percent within three years of the fiscal shock. In contrast, safeguarding public investment from budget cuts vis-a-vis public consumption can neutralize the contractionary effects of fiscal adjustments on impact, and can even spur output growth over the medium term. The component of GDP that mostly drives the heterogeneity between both types of adjustments is private investment. The results hold up to a number of robust-ness tests, including alternative identification strategies of fiscal shocks. The findings have policy implications for the design of fiscal adjustment strategies to protect economic growth as countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic.consolidation reduces output by 0.7 percent within three years of the fiscal shock. In contrast, safeguarding public investment from budget cuts vis-a-vis public consumption can neutralize the contractionary effects of fiscal adjustments on impact, and can even spur output growth over the medium term. The component of GDP that mostly drives the heterogeneity between both types of adjustments is private investment. The results hold up to a number of robustness tests, including alternative identification strategies of fiscal shocks. The findings have policy implications for the design of fiscal adjustment strategies to protect economic growth as countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Effects of Copyrights on Science: Evidence from the WWII Book Republication Program

Copyrights, which establish intellectual property in music, science, and other creative goods, are intended to encourage creativity. Yet, copyrights also raise the cost of accessing existing work—potentially discouraging future innovation. This paper uses an exogenous shift toward weak copyrights (and low access costs) during World War II to examine the potentially adverse effects of copyrights on science. Using two alternative identification strategies, we show that weaker copyrights encouraged the creation of follow-on science, measured by citations. This change is driven by a reduction in access costs, allowing scientists at less affluent institutions to use existing knowledge in new follow-on research. (JEL I23, K11, L82, N42, O34, Z11)

A model based on Bayesian confirmation and machine learning algorithms to aid archaeological interpretation by integrating incompatible data

The interpretation of archaeological features often requires a combined methodological approach in order to make the most of the material record, particularly from sites where this may be limited. In practice, this requires the consultation of different sources of information in order to cross validate findings and combat issues of ambiguity and equifinality. However, the application of a multiproxy approach often generates incompatible data, and might therefore still provide ambiguous results. This paper explores the potential of a simple digital framework to increase the explanatory power of multiproxy data by enabling the incorporation of incompatible, ambiguous datasets in a single model. In order to achieve this, Bayesian confirmation was used in combination with decision trees. The results of phytolith and geochemical analyses carried out on soil samples from ephemeral sites in Jordan are used here as a case study. The combination of the two datasets as part of a single model enabled us to refine the initial interpretation of the use of space at the archaeological sites by providing an alternative identification for certain activity areas. The potential applications of this model are much broader, as it can also help researchers in other domains reach an integrated interpretation of analysis results by combining different datasets.

Determinants of green growth in developed and developing countries

Considering the need for environmental sustainability while ensuring economic growth and development by 2030, this study uses data on 123 developed and developing countries to examine factors that influence green growth. The empirical results show that economic development positively influences green growth. However, trade openness is detrimental to green growth. Regarding energy-related factors, we find energy consumption negatively affecting green growth, but renewable energy consumption significantly improves green growth. In further analysis, we find that the influence of these factors differs between developed and developing countries. The result implies that countries at a different development level will require different strategies in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in 2030. The results are robust to alternative identification strategies such as the System Generalised Method of Movement, which accounts for potential endogeneity.

Morphometric analysis of the His bundle (atrioventricular fascicle) in humans and other animal species, associated with electrophysiological variables. Histological and immunohistochemical study

His bundle is a part of the specialized electrical conduction system that, in the normal or anormal hearts, provides connection between the atrial and ventricular myocardial compartments. The aim of this study was to perform a morphometric analysis of the characteristics of His bundle and its association with predetermined electrophysiological variables in humans, dogs, horses, and pigs. We used five hearts of the species studied. Histological sections of 5 µm thickness were obtained and stained with hematoxylin-eosin and Masson's trichrome. We also used the desmin and PAS method for precise identification of cells. His bundle was longer in horses (2.85 x 0.82 mm) and pigs (1.77 x 0.44 mm) than in dogs (1.53 x 0.26 mm) and humans, which was the shortest (1.06 x 0.23 mm). In His bundle cells, the area and diameters were significantly larger in pigs and horses than in humans (p < 0.001) and dogs (p < 0.001). We have found two patterns of organization of the components of His bundle: Group I, with large cells and a high amount of collagen fibers in ungulates (pigs and horses); group II, with smaller cells and less amount of collagen fibers in humans and dogs. Documenting differences in cell size in His bundle allows us to obtain an additional, alternative identification criterion to commonly used ones such as anatomical location. Morphological characteristics of His bundle and its cells in the different species studied coincide with rapid or slow transmission of the electrical impulse when compared with the predetermined electrophysiological variables.

Cognitive predictors of hybrid and alternative identification in multicultural environment: review of foreign studies

In the modern world, the processes of globalization, migration, increased social mobility, the availability of tourism and other ways of meeting cultures lead to the activation of intercultural communication. More and more people become bearers of more than one culture (biculturals). The choice of an identity model in scientific publications is often considered as a result of environmental influences, but intrapsychic factors, including cognitive styles, are not sufficiently considered. Existing studies give a rather vague picture. The purpose of this work is to generalize the available data on the role of the cognitive component in the identification processes, to identify possible predictors of hybrid and alternative identification, to build a model of the influence of cognitive factors on the choice of an identification model. The author's hypothetical model of cognitive predictors of hybrid or alternative identity (in the schema format) is proposed. We see further prospects for working on the problem in the empirical testing of the proposed model.

Supporting Gifted Education in Rural Schools

In this “promising practices” piece, we draw from lessons learned from a larger research study exploring how alternative identification processes and curricular interventions might influence gifted education programming for students in rural school districts. In the larger study we sought to (a) increase the number of rural students identified for gifted education services and (b) provide support for those programs in the form of a place-based language arts curriculum. As we implemented an innovative identification and curricular option for historically underrepresented students from low-income rural areas, we encountered hurdles stemming from four sources: conceptions of giftedness, teacher time and expertise, expectations for students, and fidelity of implementation. This article illuminates those challenges and discusses efforts to mitigate them and negotiate a path through to success—seeing the possible rather than limitations set forth by imposed systems affecting rural schools and communities.

Tournament Incentives and Acquisition Performance

This paper examines the impact of promotion-based tournament incentives on corporate acquisition performance. Measuring tournament incentives as the compensation ratio between the CEO and other senior executives, we show that acquirers with greater tournament incentives experience lower announcement returns. Further analysis shows that the negative effect is driven by the risk-seeking behavior of senior executives induced by tournament incentives. Our results are robust to alternative identification strategies. Our evidence highlights that senior executives, in addition to the CEO, play an influential role in acquisition decisions. (JEL G30, G34, G41, J31, J33, J62) Received: November 5, 2018; editorial decision January 6, 2020 by Editor Isil Erel.

Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks

This paper documents large revisions in a widely-used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical results about the effects of news shocks. We trace these revisions to changes in estimated factor utilization that are evocative of cyclical measurement issues with productivity. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to these measurement issues. Applied to U.S. data, the shock predicts delayed productivity growth while simultaneously generating strong responses of novel indicators of technological innovation and forward-looking variables. The shock does not lead to comovement in macroeconomic aggregates.