Visibility and Ceiling Nowcasting Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Aviation Applications

This work presents a novel approach for simulating visibility (Vis) and ceiling base height (Hc) in up to 1 h using several machine learning (ML) algorithms. Ten years of meteorological data at 15 min intervals for Santos Dumont airport (SDA), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil were used in the ML method training and testing process. In the investigation, several categorical and regressive algorithms were trained and tested, and the results were verified with observations. The forecast results reveal that the categorical methods produced satisfactory results only up to 15 min for visibility prediction with the probability of detection greater than 85%. On the other hand, the regressive methods were found to be more capable of generating an accurate prediction of Vis and Hc compared to categorical method up to 60 min. The forecast evaluation metrics for Vis and Hc had correlation coefficients of 0.99 ± 0.00 and 0.96 ± 0.00, with mean absolute errors of 324 ± 77 m, and 167 ± 21 m, respectively. Results suggested that ML methods can improve the prediction of Vis and Hc up to 1 h when accurate observations are used for the analysis.

WeatherBench Probability: Medium-range weather forecasts with probabilistic machine learning methods.

<p>Because the atmosphere is inherently chaotic, probabilistic weather forecasts are crucial to provide reliable information. In this work, we present an extension to the WeatherBench, a benchmark dataset for medium-range, data-driven weather prediction, which was originally designed for deterministic forecasts. We add a set of commonly used probabilistic verification metrics: the spread-skill ratio, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and rank histograms. Further, we compute baseline scores from the operational IFS ensemble forecast. </p><p>Then, we compare three different methods of creating probabilistic neural network forecasts: first, using Monte-Carlo dropout during inference with a range of dropout rates; second, parametric forecasts, which optimize for the CRPS; and third, categorical forecasts, in which the probability of occurrence for specific bins is predicted. We show that plain Monto-Carlo dropout does not provide enough spread. The parametric and categorical networks, on the other hand, provide reliable forecasts, with the categorical method being more versatile.</p>

Model of social and pedagogical protection of sobriety

The article deals with approaches to the study of the problem of approval and preservation of sobriety. Issues of protection of sobriety of the younger generation are considered. Some reasons of inefficiency, the current “Concept of prevention of substance use in the educational environment” are analyzed. The mechanism for forming a program for self-management of alcohol and tobacco poisons is explained. The role of sobriety public organizations and public teachers - sobriety teachers in maintaining sobriety is emphasized. A model of a system of social and pedagogical protection of sobriety, built using the categorical method “Functional System Diagram”, is proposed. Conclusions are made about the social and pedagogical essence of the sobriety protection system. The author hopes that a number of the proposals made will be useful in improving the mechanism for protecting the sobriety of children and adolescents.

Research of the goal system of an interactive form of education (on the example of teaching Russian as a foreign language in a Master’s Degree Programm)

Interactive learning, according to a review of scientific and methodic literature, is the most effective way to optimize the educational process at different stages of its formation, and es-pecially when teaching foreign languages and Russian as a foreign language. However, along with the highlighted values and advantages of interactive learning, there are a number of significant problems, the reason for which lies in insufficient attention to the systemic organization of the in-teractive learning process, which also creates an obstacle to building an effective management system for the evolution of this phenomenon. The purpose of this study is to identify patterns, conditions and factors that influence the formation and development of interactive learning. As a result of applying the methods of content analysis of literature and the categorical method “Order of goals”: 1) interactive learning is presented in the form of 3 categories (OK, Pk, IK), each of which reflects its qualitative certainty; 2) the goals of each category are determined; 3) a qualitative model of the object is constructed, where the interactive learning itself is a system, and the selected categories are subsystems; 5) revealed a typology of possible contradictions between the goals of each subsystem and the system as a whole; 6) predicted possible consequences and resolution of contradictions for the development of interactive learning. The results obtained make it possible to effectively resolve the contradictions arising in the system of goals of the object and between their carriers, and to create a model for managing the functioning of the interactive learning. It is concluded that the description of the methods of productive resolution of the revealed contradictions will allow building a qualitative process of training optimization, including foreign languages and Russian as a foreign language.

Psychological aspects of political participation and protest readiness of the youth of Primorsky Krai

Changes that take place in the Russian society generate conflicts that are often implemented in  form of a protest. Youth is the peculiar actor of protest behavior. The subject of this research is the psychological, namely emotional aspect of the attitude towards politics and its engagement into political interest and political behavior (including protest behavior) of youth of the Far East. The research involved 254 students from several universities of Primorsky Krai. Questionnaire that included a number of blocks aimed at studying emotions, interest in politics, political participation, and protest behavior was used for collecting the information. Application of the categorical method of key components, the author determined the two forms of potential protest behavior: “radical” and “moderate”. “Radical protest” reveals correlation with an entire range of negative emotions, while “moderate protest” has relatively few emotional correlates and is more typical among female respondents. “Radical” protest indicates high political activity: its supporters actively participate in politics in one or another way; “moderate” protest does not indicate such correlates. Therefore, politically active youth is more likely to have radical protest moods. The analysis of emotional attitude towards government can be considered as a marker of protest potential and its vector towards “softer” or “aggressive” forms of protest. The acquired results are valuable for government authorities, political parties, and educational institutions.

Psycholinguistic Peculiarities of the Development of Communicative Competence of Teachers of Secondary Schools

The purpose of the article is to analyze psycholinguistic peculiarities of the development of communicative competence in the structure of social intelligence of teachers and directors of secondary schools in contemporary Ukrainian society. Methods of the Research. The following theoretical methods of the research were used to solve the tasks formulated in the article: a categorical method, structural and functional methods, the methods of the analysis, systematization, modeling, generalization. Also we used empirical methods – the methods of observation, conversation, testing with the aim to study the structure of communicative competence and social intelligence of teachers; psychological and pedagogical experiment in a form of the research of the development of the structure of communicative competence and social intelligence of teachers. The results of the Research. In the content of communicative competence of teachers we can emphasize the ability to optimize interpersonal relationships in the group; social sensitivity; a set of communicative skills, behavior patterns and communication techniques; a communicative potential; the interpretative competence. Teachers with a low level of communication competence have characterized by communicative failures caused by a violation of their orientation onto the process of communication: non-motivated change of speech strategies, mental orientations and the register of speech; failure by the speaker communicate postulates; neglecting by the speaker the linguistic means, which involve the maxim of the tact; unsuccessful choice by the speaker the tone and the register of communication. Scripts of role deixis, explicit and implicit pragmatic constituents in the structure of teacher’s communicative competence were formulated, their content was revealed. Conclusions. Psycholinguistic peculiarities of the development of communicative competence of the teachers and the directors of schools were established: the composite assessment of the teacher’s communicative competence positively correlates with social intelligence, reflexive and empathic personal abilities; communicative competence of the teacher depends on the actualization of scripts of role deixis, explicit and implicit pragmatic constituents in its structure, etc.

Crops' sensitivity and adaptive capacity to drought occurrence

In the context of sustainable agricultural management, drought monitoring plays a crucial role assessing the vulnerability of agriculture to drought occurrence. Drought events are very frequent in the Iberian Peninsula (and in Portugal in particular) and an increase of frequency of these extreme events are expected in a very near future. Therefore, the quantitative assessment of the natural ecosystems vulnerability to drought is still very challenging, mainly due to the difficulties of having a common definition of vulnerability. Consequently, several methods have been proposed to assess agricultural vulnerability. In this work, a principal component analysis (PCA) was performed based on the components which characterize the Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptative Capacity of the agricultural system to drought events with the aim of generating maps of vulnerability of agriculture to drought in Portugal. Several datasets were used to describe these components, namely drought indicators, vegetation indexes and soil characterization variables. A comparison between the PCA-based method and a subjective non-automatic categorical method using the same indicators was performed. Results show that both methods identify Minho and Alentejo as regions of low and extreme vulnerability, respectively. The results are very similar between the two methods, with small differences on certain vulnerability class. However, the PCA method has some advantages over the categorical method, namely the ability to identify the sign of the indicators, not having to use the indicator-component subjective relationship, nor calculating weights. Furthermore, the PCA method is fully statistical and presents results according to a prior knowledge of the region and the data used.

The Theory of Self-Identification and Categorical Research Method

This article presents a categorical method for analyzing the complex processes of personal identity. Human experiences are a result of conscious generalizations that dominate culture and are fixed in semantic categories. The rapid transformation of society fragments a life into many identifying parameters. Therefore, «a self-concept» and a semantic category of being may not be consistent with each other. The harmonious level of self-organization is manifested in the sensory coherence of people: an intention and an expectation. And fragmentation is a chaos of self-awareness and loss of an emotional stability. In a complicating society, the identity of a person becomes multiple and ambiguous. These studies will determine not only the social level of human self-organization, but begin the search for a method to maintain them. The article attempts to consider a categorical method for analyzing the self-identification properties of a people.

KINERJA PENILAIAN INDIVIDU MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS KATEGORI YANG TEPAT DALAM PROSES PEMILIHAN KARYAWAN

For employers the process of employee selection is an important activity in the effort to get a workforce or adequate workers in receiving assignments to perform certain types of work. Many methods can be used in the employee selection process, one such method is category analysis. Whatever type of selection method, of course the company expects to achieve an accurate selection results. In writing this article the researcher wants to show one form of application of the method so that the selection result can give a picture of transparent result. This method is numerical using a score approach through a focus group discussion process. This categorical method is no less accurate than other similar methods in the recruitment selection process of employees in the company because it is quite objective.