Low Religion or No Religion? Improving Research with the Logic of Machine Learning

Social science research is interested in the growing number of Americans who express no religious affiliation on surveys, but concerns about underreporting, misreporting, and inconsistency in lived religion raises a question about our most common survey measure of nonreligious self-identification. What is the predictive validity of our current explanations for why people disaffiliate? I advance the current literature using a logistic regression model for no religious affiliation fit on eleven samples from the General Social Survey (1988-2014) to predict respondents’ affiliation in the 2016 and 2018 samples. Results show our explanations can yield a fairly accurate predictive model, but errors are important and informative. The model is more likely to misclassify religiously unaffiliated respondents as affiliated. Analysis using model estimates shows that selection effects into non-affiliation explain differences in political views on culture wars issues. These findings challenge the use of categorical measures for nonreligion alone, because they suggest that measures of “low religion,” rather than “no religion,” are more useful for researchers seeking to overcome survey measurement error in studying this group.

Bribery and the Role and Social Value Orientation: A Multi-Site Experimental Study in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands

Bribery is a complex phenomenon rooted in both individual motives and the greater institutional context. Experimental research into causal mechanisms that drive bribing behavior is still scarce. To date, there is no empirical evidence on how the society-regarding motivational survey measure of Public Service Motivation (PSM) and the other-oriented motivational measure of Social Value Orientation (SVO) can help explain why some people are more susceptible to engage in the act of bribing than others. Based on a multi-site triple-replication, and a vignette-based research design, quasi-experimental evidence from Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands shows that both measures interact and that—paradoxically—people with higher SVO are more likely to be willing to engage in bribery.

Validation of Maternal Recall of Iron Folic Supplementation During Antenatal Care in Rural Southern Nepal

Objectives This study's primary objective is to examine the validity of maternal recall of iron folate supplementation during antenatal care and factors associated with accuracy of maternal recall. Methods A longitudinal cohort design was employed for the validation study. The direct observation of all iron folate supplementation (IFA) received during all antenatal care visits at the five study health posts served as the “gold standard” to the maternal report of IFA received collected during a postpartum interview. Individual-level validity was assessed by calculating indicator sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The inflation factor (IF) measured population-level bias, comparing the true coverage to the survey measure (maternal report) coverage of IFA. A multivariable log-binomial model was used to assess factors associated with accurate recall. Results The majority (95.8%) of women were observed receiving IFA during pregnancy. Women overreported the number IFA tablets received compared to what was observed during ANC visits. On average the reported number of tablets received was 45 tablets greater than the number observed. Individual-level accuracy of maternal report of any IFA receipt was moderate (AUC = 0.60) and population bias was low (IF = 1.01). However, the individual-level validity was poor across the seven IFA tablet count categories; the AUC for categories ranged from 0.47 to 0.58, indicating a performance that at best was slightly better than a random guess and at worst, misleading. Driven by the trend of maternal overreport, the inflation factor indicated that the survey measure drastically underestimated the prevalence of lower tablet categories and overestimated the prevalence of higher tablet counts. Accuracy of maternal report was not associated with months since last ANC observation nor any maternal characteristics. Conclusions Maternal report of the amount IFA supplementation received during pregnancy produced extremely biased population prevalence and performed comparably to or worse than a random guess for individual level validity. It's imperative to improve this indicator for future use, as it is included in global frameworks, initiatives and national program planning. Funding Sources This research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Preferences and Civil War in Northern Uganda: Post-Traumatic Growth Reconsidered

We exploit the largely exogenous character of abduction and displacement in northern Uganda during the recent civil war to estimate the effects of each on experimental measures of risk tolerance, altruism, trust and trustworthiness, as well as a survey measure of patience. Our analysis reveals the limitations of the ‘post-traumatic growth’ hypothesis. In most cases preferences are unaffected by these traumas and in the one domain in which we identify a significant effect, it is contrary to the hypothesis—people who were both abducted and displaced are 21 percentage points less likely to take a risk.

Developing a measure of information seeking about phishing

Phishing e-mails are fraudulent e-mails used to gain access to sensitive information or secure computer systems. They persuade users to click on malicious links, download attachments or provide sensitive information, such as usernames or passwords. One approach that aims to reduce people’s susceptibility to phishing is the provision of information to users regarding the phishing threat and the techniques used within phishing e-mails. In line with this, awareness campaigns are often used within organizations and wider society to raise awareness of phishing and encourage people to engage with protective information. However, the potential effectiveness of such approaches in reducing susceptibility remains uncertain. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating (i) whether the propensity to access such information may in itself influence susceptibility to phishing and (ii) the different factors that motivate people to engage with information in the first place. In order to understand how current and future interventions regarding phishing may be consumed by users, as well as their potential impact on phishing susceptibility, it is important to conduct theoretically based research that provides a foundation to investigate these issues. This study provides a first step in addressing this by developing and validating a theoretically based survey measure across two studies centred upon the constructs of protection motivation theory (perceived vulnerability, severity, self-efficacy and response efficacy) to assess the factors that influence whether people choose to keep up to date with protective information about phishing. This survey measure is then used within Study 2 to provide an initial investigation of the role of these constructs in (i) self-reported user intentions to keep up to date with phishing techniques in the future and (ii) phishing discrimination ability, assessed using a phishing quiz. Overall, higher perceived threat severity, self-efficacy and response efficacy were associated with greater intentions, while greater perceived vulnerability was associated with lower intentions. No relationship was found with phishing discrimination ability. By understanding the factors that influence user intention to maintain knowledge and seek information about phishing threats, it will be possible to ensure that, as effective interventions are developed, their potential impact can be maximized.

How to Measure Retirement Age? A Comparison of Survey and Register Data

Due to an increasing heterogeneity in retirement transitions, the measurement of retirement age constitutes a major challenge for researchers and policymakers. In order to better understand the concept of retirement age, we compare a series of measures for retirement age assessed on the basis of survey and register data. We use data from Sweden, where flexible retirement schemes are implemented and register data are available. We link survey data from the Swedish Level of Living Survey with register data from the Swedish Longitudinal Integration Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies. We create four measures of retirement age based on these datasets, applying approaches that have been used in previous literature. We analyse the means and distributions of these measures and evaluate the correlations between them. Finally, we regress common predictors of retirement age such as gender or education on the four measures of retirement age to examine potential differences in size, direction and statistical significance of the associations. We find that the survey measure of retirement age resembles the following two ways of defining retirement age in the register data: first, the age at which people receive more than half their income from old-age or disability pension and, second, the age at which they were not gainfully employed for at least 2 years. This insight gives us a better understanding of when in the retirement transition process, individuals identify with retirement. Moreover, it provides decision support for researchers working with register data to determine which measure to use.

Conceptualization and Assessment of Adolescents’ Engagement and Disengagement in School

Increasing school engagement is critical for improving academic achievement and reducing dropout rates. In order to increase student engagement and identify those students who are most disengaged from school, we need to conceptualize and measure student engagement appropriately. This study used a mixed method sequential exploratory design to develop and validate a student survey measure of school engagement that reflects a multidimensional conceptualization of engagement. Psychometric tests were conducted with a large racially and socioeconomically diverse sample of 5th–12th graders in the United States ( N = 3,632). Findings demonstrated that a bifactor multidimensional model fit the data appropriately and provided evidence of measurement invariance, construct, and predictive validity. Results provided a psychometrically sound foundation for capturing the behavioral, emotional, cognitive, and social aspects of student engagement and disengagement in school.

Individual investors’ sophistication and expectations of risk and return

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between individual investors’ level of sophistication and their expectations of risk and return in the stock market. Design/methodology/approach The author combines survey and registry data on individual investors in Sweden to obtain 11 sophistication proxies that previous research has related to individuals’ financial decisions. These proxies are related to a survey measure regarding individual investors’ expectations of risk and return in an index fund using linear regressions. Findings The findings in this paper indicate that sophisticated investors have lower risk and higher return expectations that are closer to objective measures than those of less-sophisticated investors. Originality/value These results are important, since they enhance the understanding of the underlying mechanisms through which sophistication can influence financial decisions.

The Development and Construct Validity of a Team Processes Survey Measure

Marks, Mathieu, and Zaccaro (2001) advanced a theory and framework of team processes that has garnered much attention and guided numerous investigations. They proposed that 10 first-order constructs (e.g., strategy formulation, coordination, conflict management) would map to three second-order constructs (i.e., transition, action, and interpersonal). Despite the popularity of this framework, we are unaware of any validated multiitem measures of the team processes they identified. Accordingly, we develop and demonstrate content and construct validity of 50-, 30-, and 10-item versions of a survey measure of team processes. Using data from over 700 teams, we test Marks et al.’s higher-order model and find results that are largely consistent with both their 10 first-order dimensions and the 10:3 second-order framework. Using samples of global virtual knowledge teams and health care employees, we provide evidence of the discriminant validity of our team process measure versus a measure of team empowerment. We provide recommendations for the use of these measures in future research and practice and encourage their use as part of a portfolio of measures of team processes.

Attitudes Toward Economic Inequality: The Illusory Agreement

Recent studies of attitudes toward economic inequality suggest that most people around the world prefer very low levels of inequality, despite well-known trends toward greater inequality within many countries. Even within countries, people across the political spectrum are said to be in remarkable agreement about the ideal level of economic inequality. Using survey data from 40 countries and a novel survey experiment in the United States, we show that this apparent agreement is illusory. When relying on a widely used cross-national survey measure of Ideal Pay Ratios, preferred levels of inequality are heavily influenced by two well-documented sources of perceptual distortion: the anchoring effect and ratio bias. These effects are substantial and many times larger than the influence of fundamental political predispositions. As a result, these cross-national survey measures tapping preferences regarding economic inequality produce misleading conclusions about desired levels of inequality.