Predictors and Correlates of Criminal Trajectory Groups

This chapter reviews the literature on developmental predictors and correlates of high-rate-chronic offense trajectories identified in trajectory studies. A number of studies have identified that a small group of offenders account for a disproportionate number of offenses. Therefore, understanding the developmental precursors of this pernicious group may inform early intervention and prevention programs. To set the stage for the discussion, key terms, such as risk factors, correlates, and causal risk factors, are differentiated and defined to provide conceptual clarification. Findings across studies suggest that no one variable in childhood or adolescence emerged as a significant predictor or correlate of the high rate, chronic trajectory group. Rather, multiple variables across various life domains (e.g., family, peer, school, and neighborhood) predicted trajectory membership. Further research is needed to understand the potential causal mechanisms linking risk factors to criminal outcomes.

Developmental and Life-Course Models of Crime

This chapter provides an overview of theoretical process models for the explanation of crime in developmental context. It introduces key propositions from leading developmental and life-course theories of offending, including the dual taxonomy of antisocial behavior, coercion theory, interactional theory, and age-graded theory of informal social control, and stresses the need for further elaboration of the role of human agency in criminal trajectories across the life span. The chapter also describes the core tenets of the relational developmental systems framework, which serves as a major metamodel that undergirds contemporary developmental science. It is argued that developmental science theories of intentional self-regulation across the life span hold great promise to enrich criminological theorizing on human agency.

Methodological Approaches to Modeling Criminal Trajectories

Criminal offenders compose a heterogeneous population. Criminal trajectory research aims to capture this heterogeneity in terms of the frequency or severity of offending. This chapter describes the concept a criminal trajectory and the statistical technique used to derive trajectories from longitudinal data. Both the semiparametric group-based trajectory modeling (SGBTM) and latent growth mixture modeling (GMM) approaches are described in nontechnical terms, and the differences between them are noted. Despite some similarities, these approaches are also distinguished from conventional growth curve modeling. Guidelines and factors to consider in building and testing trajectory models are discussed. Last, extensions of SGBTM and GMM are presented.

Introduction

This chapter develops the thesis that a developmental perspective is essential to advancing knowledge about criminal trajectories and to gaining a deeper, more nuanced understanding of criminal behavior across the life span. In discussing criminal trajectories, an emphasis is placed on the importance of longitudinal data, person-oriented analyses, developmental processes, a life-span approach, and dynamic transactions between the individual and the environment. Last, the chapter details three premises on which the book is based (a) crime is a product of developmental processes, (b) criminals compose a heterogeneous population, and (c) process models are essential to understand criminal behavior in a developmental context.

Later Life Outcomes, Turning Points, and Desistance

Prior reviews of the criminal trajectory literature mostly excluded findings on the relation of criminal trajectory groups to later life outcomes, turning points, and desistance. To set the stage for the review of this literature, the chapter first draws on the broader literature to define key terms, such as desistance and turning points, and to describe influential theories of desistance from crime and empirical findings. It is argued that criminal trajectory research needs to better integrate with these independent strands of research to advance the understanding of desisting offender trajectory groups. The chapter also details how emerging, innovative methodological approaches for the examination of turning point effects can help strengthen future criminal trajectory research on these issues. Next, the findings of criminal trajectory studies on later life outcomes and desistance are reviewed. Future research needs are identified to move the field forward. Last, the chapter seeks to make the case for a programmatic agenda that ties criminal trajectory research to developmental science models of intentional self-regulation across the life span, such as tripartite Selection, Optimization, and Compensation theory from Paul Baltes, to help explore the role of human agency in the development of crime.

Debates and Controversies

In spite of the tremendous growth in trajectory research over the past 25 years, the trajectory methodology is not without controversy. Debates and controversies remain a central feature of the literature. This chapter presents an overview of the major controversial issues and provides guidelines and suggestions for moving the research forward with greater clarity and reduced confusion. This chapter also picks up on the discussion of model-building considerations introduced in Chapter 2. Specifically, issues pertaining to (a) statistical criteria for class enumeration; (b) distributional issues, model misspecification, and overextraction of trajectory classes; (c) dependency on antecedents and covariates; and (d) robustness or sensitivity of trajectory solutions in relation to various methodological factors are detailed.

Theoretical Backdrop

This chapter presents the history and theoretical underpinnings of criminal trajectory research. The chapter distinguishes between a short historical view and long historical view of theoretical contributions. The key concepts, theories, and studies discussed are drawn from the criminal career notion, Moffitt's dual taxonomy model, important longitudinal investigations, developmental criminology, developmental psychopathology, and the life-course sociological and life-span psychological theoretical frameworks of Glen Elder and Paul Baltes, respectively.

Implications for Policy and Practice

This chapter explores how findings from criminal trajectory research might be used to inform the development of policies and programs both within the criminal justice system (e.g., for assessment, treatment, and rehabilitation of offenders) and outside the criminal justice system (e.g., for early intervention and prevention). Although some scholars may be sceptical of the applied relevance of criminal trajectory research, given the controversies discussed in Chapter 3, we hold a more optimistic position. We argue that trajectory research has applied relevance if viewed broadly, from the developmental systems, developmental and life course criminology, and criminal career perspectives. When viewed from these frameworks, trajectory research reminds us that a person-centered, developmentally informed approach to working with individuals involved in the justice system, as well as young people at risk for contact with the justice system, yields positive outcomes. Understanding the developmental processes (e.g., role of developmental tasks and adaptive functioning), developmental risk factors, and later life outcomes for different trajectory groups may help identify areas to target for prevention, early intervention, treatment, and rehabilitation.

Findings on the Number and Shape of Criminal Trajectories

This chapter presents findings from select studies from the criminal trajectory literature to highlight the heterogeneity among offender populations and subpopulations, specifically female offenders and sex offenders. The chapter contributes a state-of-the-art overview of what is known about criminal trajectories and what this work tells us about the nature and pattern of offending over time within and across individuals. It describes and synthesizes the results of research in terms of the number of trajectory groups derived, their shape, peak, length, size, and crime mix and offers insights into the reasons for the variability across studies along these dimensions. In order to present the broad range of topics to which trajectory research has been applied in the criminal justice field, results are also presented on four novel areas: (a) patterns of risk assessment scores over time scores, (b) code-of-the-street beliefs, (c) cross-national terrorism, and (d) monetary costs of crime across trajectory groups.

Conclusion

It has been 25 years since the criminal trajectory methodology was first introduced. Scientists from multiple fields have now arrived at a much more balanced view of its strengths and weaknesses. The final chapter of this book looks back at the accumulated research on criminal trajectories and renews the call on criminological trajectory researchers to interface better with contemporary developmental science frameworks. This call is not intended to replace extant developmental and life-course theories of crime but, rather, to complement them by incorporating meta-theoretical propositions from the field of developmental science. To this end, this chapter offers 12 suggestions for the next generation of trajectory researchers. They range from methodological issues, including the need for stricter reporting standards and greater methodological rigor, to substantive research needs, such as the exploration of the role of biological processes, and the study of prospective links to trajectory groups of distinct behaviors and intentional self-regulatory strategies that foster desisting pathways of crime.