scholarly journals Tracking accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts: Findings from a long‐term Canadian study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Daniel Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Tracking Accuracy ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Strategic Intelligence

scholarly journals Long-term Safety and Dosing of OnabotulinumtoxinA: A Prospective, Observational Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 742-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore Wein ◽  
Mandar Jog ◽  
Meetu Bhogal ◽  
Sonja Dhani ◽  
Robert Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cerebral Palsy ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Therapeutic Indication ◽  
Prospective Observational Study ◽  
Muscular Weakness ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Safety Population ◽  
Risk Balance

ABSTRACT:Background:Although therapeutic treatments are intended to help alleviate symptoms associated with disease, safety must be carefully considered and monitored to confirm continued positive benefit/risk balance. The objective of MOBILITY was to study the long-term safety of onabotulinumtoxinA for treatment of various therapeutic indications.Methods:A prospective, multicenter, observational, Phase IV Canadian study in patients treated with onabotulinumtoxinA for a therapeutic indication. Dosing was determined by the participating physician. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded throughout the study.Results:Patients (n= 1372) with adult focal spasticity, blepharospasm, cerebral palsy, cervical dystonia, hemifacial spasm, hyperhidrosis, or “other” diagnoses were enrolled into the safety cohort. Eighty-three patients (6%) reported 209 AEs; 44 AEs in 24 patients (2%) were considered treatment-related AEs. Seventy-two serious AEs were reported by 38 patients (3%); 10 serious AEs in 5 patients (0.4%) were considered treatment related. Most commonly reported treatment-related AEs were muscular weakness (n= 7/44) and dysphagia (n= 6/44).Conclusions:In patients with follow-up for up to six treatments with onabotulinumtoxinA, treatment-related AEs were reported in <2% of the safety population over the course of nearly 5 years. Our findings from MOBILITY provide further evidence that onabotulinumtoxinA treatment is safe for long-term use across a variety of therapeutic indications.

scholarly journals Tracking Accuracy of Strategic Intelligence Forecasts: Findings from a Long-Term Canadian Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel ◽  
Daniel Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Vital Role ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Tracking Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Strategic Intelligence ◽  
Intelligence Assessment ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Of Canada ◽  
Verbal Probability ◽  
High Degree

Forecasting plays a vital role in intelligence assessment and contributes to national security decision-making by improving strategic foresight. Remarkably, most intelligence organizations do not proactively track their forecasting accuracy and, therefore, do not know how accurate their forecasts are or what types of biases intelligence analysts (or organizations) might exhibit. We review research on geopolitical forecasting and a roughly decade-long program of research to assess the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts produced by and for the Government of Canada. This research is described in three phases corresponding to previously published research, following which novel analyses (drawing from the data used in the earlier phases) are reported. The findings reveal a high degree of forecasting accuracy as well as significant underconfidence. These results were evident regardless of whether analysts assigned numeric probabilities to their forecasts. However, the novel analyses clarified that there is a substantial cost to accuracy if end-users rely on their own interpretations of verbal probability terms used in the forecasts. We recommend that intelligence organizations proactively track forecasting accuracy as a means of supporting accountability and organizational learning. We also recommend that intelligence organizations use numeric probabilities in forecasts as a means of improving intelligence producer-consumer agreement in the interpretation of forecasts and other probabilistic assessments.

Non-myopic sensor scheduling for low radiation risk tracking using mixed POMDP

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-lin Shan ◽  
Zi-ning Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Target Tracking ◽  
Radiation Risk ◽  
Problem Solution ◽  
Sensor Scheduling ◽  
Tracking Accuracy ◽  
Active Sensors ◽  
Unscented Transformation ◽  
Discrete State ◽  
Continuous State

This paper addresses a non-myopic sensor-scheduling problem of how to select and assign active sensors for trading off the tracking accuracy and the radiation risk, where the radiation risk is incurred by the fact that the emission energy originating from active sensors for target tracking can be intercepted by the enemy target. This problem is formulated as a mixed partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) composed of a continuous-state POMDP for target tracking and a discrete-state POMDP for emission control. Based on the idea of foresight optimization, the long-term accuracy reward is evaluated by the combination of unscented transformation sampling and Kalman filtering, whereas the long-term radiation cost is derived from hidden Markov model filter. Because the problem can be converted into a decision tree, a branch and bound algorithm is developed for problem solution. A simulation example illustrates the effectiveness of our approach.

Long-Term Care Service Trajectories and Their Predictors for Persons Living With Dementia: Results From a Canadian Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denise S. Cloutier ◽  
Margaret J. Penning ◽  
Kim Nuernberger ◽  
Deanne Taylor ◽  
Stuart MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Daily Living ◽  
Older Persons ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Care Service ◽  
Aging In Place ◽  
Publicly Funded ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Transition Analysis

Objective: We used latent transition analysis to explore common long-term care (LTC) service trajectories and their predictors for older adults with dementia. Method: Using linked administrative data collected over a 4-year interval (2008-2011), the study sample included 3,541 older persons with dementia who were clients of publicly funded LTC in British Columbia, Canada. Results: Our results revealed relatively equal reliance on home care (HC) and facility-based residential care (RC) as starting points. HC service users were further differentiated into “intermittent HC” and “continuous HC” groups. Mortality was highest for the RC group. Age, changes in cognitive performance, and activities of daily living were important predictors of transitions into HC or RC. Discussion: Reliance on HC and RC by persons with dementia raises critical questions about ensuring that an adequate range of services is available in local communities to support aging in place and to ensure appropriate timing for entry into institutions.

scholarly journals Use of glucocorticoids in acute spinal cord injuries: a last decade analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Dantas Campos Pinto ◽  
Gabriela Arcoverde Wanderley ◽  
Gustavo Sales Santa Cruz ◽  
Luís Eduardo Nobrega Nogueira Alves ◽  
Wagner Gonçalves Horta
Keyword(s):  
Spinal Cord ◽  
Spinal Cord Injuries ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Neurological Outcomes ◽  
Cord Injury ◽  
Early Use ◽  
American Academy Of Neurology

Introduction: The early use of methylprednisolone (MP) pulse represents the only treatment suggested to stop neurological outcomes in non-operable acute spinal cord injuries (ASCI). The protocol of the drug use dates from the 1990s and results of the NASCIS 2 randomized clinical trial. However, such conduct is still an issue for discussion, due to limited evidence. Objective: To compare the results of the main studies about the use of MP in the ASCI published in the last decade. Methods: This is a narrative review of the use of MP in the ASCI. A search was carried out using the keywords “acute spinal cord injury” and “methylprednisolone” on PubMed and Cochrane, in April 2021. Indexed meta- analysis from 2011 to 2020 were used as filters. All studies (3) were selected for analysis and comparison of their results. Results: Cochrane meta-analysis, in 2012 concluded that MP administration results in an improvement of the neurological outcome and presents good safety margin. Although it agrees with the drug harmless, a Canadian study in 2017 pointed out the MP offers a poor motor function benefit in the long term. Recently, in 2019, a meta-analysis from the American Academy of Neurology, did not recommend the use of MP in the ASCI, because of the lack of benefit in neurological function and increased occurrence of complications after the adoption of the therapy. Conclusion: Data from the last ten years of analysis demonstrates a progressive decrease in the evidence in favor of the use of MP in the ASCI.

scholarly journals Current Studies on Two Separate Topics: Breastfeeding Postpartum Length of Hospital Stay

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-46
Author(s):  
Mary Lou Moore
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
The United States ◽  
Urgent Care ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Cesarean Births ◽  
Milk Substitute ◽  
Reduced Risk

In this column, the author examines recent research on two separate topics: 1) breastfeeding; 2) postpartum length of hospital stay. Recent studies suggest long-term effects of breastfeeding that benefit both mother and infant. Benefits include a reduced risk of breast cancer in breastfeeding mothers and a reduced level of total and LDH cholesterol in adults who were breastfed as infants. Infants of mothers with maternal asthma had lower rates of asthma if the mother breastfed. In a study of women in the United States who planned to breastfeed, those mothers who breastfed exclusively and planned to breastfeed more than three months were more likely to achieve their goals than mothers who planned to combine breast and human-milk substitute feeds and to breastfeed less than three months.In a Canadian study, shortened postpartum stays led to increased re-admission to hospital for mothers with cesarean births. In contrast, in a Massachusetts study, shortened postpartum stays did not lead to an increase in infant visits for urgent care. However, the Massachusetts study did not reflect a decrease in maternity-related costs associated with shortened length of postpartum stay.

Long-term Outcomes of Carotid Endarterectomy Versus Stenting in a Multicenter Population-based Canadian Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 268 (2) ◽  
pp. 364-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamad A. Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Mamdani ◽  
Jack V. Tu ◽  
Gustavo Saposnik ◽  
Badr Aljabri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carotid Endarterectomy ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Long Term Outcomes

scholarly journals Proceedings of the Canadian Thyroid Cancer Active Surveillance Study Group 2019 national investigator meeting

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Goldstein ◽  
Sangeet Ghai ◽  
Martin Corsten ◽  
Eric Bissada ◽  
Nathalie Audet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Papillary Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Active Surveillance ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Study Group ◽  
Papillary Thyroid ◽  
Canadian Study ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Active Research

Abstract Active surveillance (AS) in the management of small, low risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) as an alternative option to thyroidectomy, is an area of active research. A national Canadian study is proposed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of patients with small, low risk PTC who choose AS or surgery. This letter describes the proceedings of a national investigator meeting to plan the study. Graphical abstract

scholarly journals Understanding the use of strategic intelligence as a strategic management tool in the long-term insurance industry in South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
René Pellissier ◽  
J-P. Kruger
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Management ◽  
South African ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
The South ◽  
Strategic Intelligence ◽  
Term Insurance

The purpose of this research paper was to explore the extent to which strategic intelligence is utilised within the South African long-term insurance industry and whether it could be used to identify opportunities or threats within the global environment to remain competitive, create greater innovation, and corporate advantage.The paper obtained the qualitative views and opinions of strategic decision makers, on an executive managerial level within the South African long-term insurance industry, on their organisations use of strategic intelligence. It was found that there are marked differences in the conformity and usage of strategic intelligence and its components between the organisations surveyed, with a measurable difference between large and small organisations. It is, however, generally viewed that the use of a strategic intelligence framework could greatly enhance decision-making.Data collection for the research undertaken was limited to the 82 long-term insurance companies, which were registered with the South African Financial Services Board. More specifically the focus was on the organisations listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange within the Life Assurance sector, within which a final response rate of 36.1% was achieved, including the 100% response rate from the six listed organisations.By understanding the extent to which strategic intelligence is utilised in the South African longterminsurance industry, and the benefits or problems that are experienced by implementing and using strategic intelligence as an input to the strategic management process we can comprehend the value that strategic intelligence adds in the decision making process. The originality of this work concludes in the identification and utilisation of the most important factors of a strategic intelligence framework that will greatly enhance global corporate decisionmakingand result in competitive advantage and constant innovation within the South African business environment.

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