scholarly journals Mortality of Supercentenarians: Estimates from the Updated IDL

2020 ◽  
pp. 29-35
Author(s):  
Jutta Gampe
Keyword(s):  
Human Mortality ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Probability Of Death

AbstractMortality after age 110 has been estimated to be flat at a level corresponding to an annual probability of death of 50% (Gampe, Supercentenarians. Springer, Berlin, 2010). Since the publication of these results, the IDL has been substantially updated, and the number of supercentenarians in the database has roughly doubled. Here we report the results obtained from the updated database (N = 1219 supercentenarians). The broad conclusions regarding human mortality at the highest ages still hold.

Framework for Developing Fragility and Consequence Models for Local Personal Risk

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1325-1345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Crowley ◽  
Barbara Polidoro ◽  
Rui Pinho ◽  
Jan van Elk
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Analytical Methodology ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Collapse Mechanisms ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
Complete Collapse

For the estimation of “local personal risk,” i.e., the annual probability of fatality for a hypothetical person continuously present in or near a building, an analytical methodology based on the probability of partial and complete collapse mechanisms (fragility models) and the probability of death given those collapse mechanisms (consequence models) for a building stock exposed to induced seismicity ground shaking is presented.

scholarly journals Avalanche hazard zoning in Iceland based on individual risk

2004 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 285-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Þorsteinn Arnalds ◽  
Kristján Jónasson ◽  
Sven Sigurðsson
Keyword(s):  
Individual Risk ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
The Public ◽  
Avalanche Hazard ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Hazard Zoning ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
Using Data

AbstractAvalanche hazard is a threat to many residential areas in Iceland. In 1995 two avalanche accidents, causing a total of 34 fatalities in areas thought to be safe, prompted research on avalanche hazard assessment. A new method was developed, and in 2000 a new regulation on avalanche hazard zoning was issued. The method and regulation are based on individual risk, or annual probability of death due to avalanches. The major components of the method are the estimation of avalanche frequency, run-out distribution and vulnerability. The frequency is estimated locally for each path under consideration, but the run-out distribution is based on data from many locations, employing the concept of transferring avalanches between slopes. Finally the vulnerability is estimated using data from the 1995 avalanches. Under the new regulation, new hazard maps have been prepared for six of the most vulnerable villages in Iceland. Hazard zones are delineated using risk levels of 0.2×10–4, 0.7×10–4 and 2×10–4 a–1, with risk less than 0.2×10–4 a–1 considered acceptable. When explaining the new zoning to the public, a measure of annual individual risk that allows comparison with other risks in society has proven advantageous.

scholarly journals The Human Longevity Record May Hold for Decades: Jeanne Calment’s Extraordinary Record Is Not Evidence for an Upper Limit to Human Lifespan

2020 ◽  
pp. 49-55
Author(s):  
Adam Lenart ◽  
José Manuel Aburto ◽  
Anders Stockmarr ◽  
James W. Vaupel
Keyword(s):  
Human Longevity ◽  
List Type ◽  
Human Lifespan ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Probability Of Death

AbstractSince 1990 Jeanne Louise Calment has held the record for human longevity. She was born on 21 February 1875, became the longest-lived human on 12 May 1990 when she was 115.21 and died on 4 August 1997 at age 122.45 years. In this chapter, we use data available on 25 September 2017 on people who reached age 110, supercentenarians, to address the following questions: How likely is it that a person has reached age 122.45? How unlikely is it that Calment’s record has not yet been broken? How soon might it be broken? Assuming a constant annual probability of death of 50% after age 110, we found that the probability that a person who survived to age 110 would have lived to 122.45 by 25 September 2017 is 17.1%. Furthermore, we calculated that there was only a 20.3% chance that Calment’s record would have been broken after 1997 but before 2017. Finally, we estimated that there is less than a 50% chance that someone will surpass Calment’s lifespan before 2045. Jeanne Louise Calment’s record is exceptional but not impossible. It does not provide evidence that her lifespan is an upper limit to human lifespans.

Quick Consult: Quick Consult: Acromioplasty

2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 4-5
Keyword(s):  
Glasgow Coma Scale ◽  
Outcome Assessment ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Vegetative State ◽  
Behavioral Impairment ◽  
Whole Person ◽  
Ordinal Scales ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Assessment Scales

Abstract Different jurisdictions use the AMA Guides to the Evaluation of Permanent Impairment (AMA Guides) for different purposes, and this article reviews a specific jurisdictional definition in the Province of Ontario of catastrophic impairment that incorporates the AMA Guides. In Ontario, a whole person impairment (WPI) exceeding 54% or a mental or behavioral impairment of Class 4 or 5 qualifies the individual for catastrophic benefits, and individuals who do not meet the test receive a lesser benefit. By inference, this establishes a parity threshold among dissimilar injuries and dissimilar outcome assessment scales for benefits. In Ontario, the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) identifies patients who have a high probability of death or of severely disabled survival. The GCS recognizes gradations of vegetative state and disability, but translating the gradations for rating individual impairment on ordinal scales into a method of assessing percentage impairments cannot be done reliably, as explained in the AMA Guides, Fifth Edition. The AMA Guides also notes that mental and behavioral impairment in Class 4 (marked impairment) or 5 (extreme impairment) indicates “catastrophic impairment” by significantly impeding useful functioning (Class 4) or significantly impeding useful functioning and implying complete dependency on another person for care (Class 5). Translating the AMA Guides guidelines into ordinal scales cannot be done reliably.

Das rupturierte infrarenale Aortenaneurysma – eine kritische Analyse

VASA ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bürger ◽  
Meyer ◽  
Tautenhahn ◽  
Halloul
Keyword(s):  
Aortic Aneurysm ◽  
Aortic Rupture ◽  
Anesthetic Management ◽  
Objective Evaluation ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Apache Ii ◽  
Apache Ii Score ◽  
Infrarenal Aortic Aneurysm ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Probability Of Death

Background: Objective evaluation of the management of patients with ruptured infrarenal aortic aneurysm in emergency situations has been described rarely. Patients and methods: Fifty-two consecutive patients with ruptured infrarenal aortic aneurysm (mean age, 70.3 years; range, 56–89 years; SD 7.8) were admitted between January 1993 and March 1998. Emergency protocols, final reports, and follow-up data were analyzed retrospectively. APACHE II scores at admission and fifth postoperative day were assessed. Results: The time between the appearance of first symptoms and the referral of patients to the hospital was more than 5 hours in 37 patients (71%). Thirty-eight patients (71%) had signs of shock at time of admission. Ultrasound was performed in 81% of patients as the first diagnostic procedure. The most frequent site of aortic rupture was the left retroperitoneum (87%). Intraoperatively, acute left ventricular failure occurred in four patients, and cardiac arrest in two others. The postoperative course was complicated significantly in 34 patients. The overall mortality rate was 36.5% (n = 19). In 35 patients, APACHE II score was assessed, showing a probability of death of more than 40% in five patients and lower than 30% in 17 others. No patient showing probability of death of above 75% at the fifth postoperative day survived (n = 7). Conclusions: Ruptured aortic aneurysm demands surgical intervention. Clinical outcome is also influenced by preclinical and anesthetic management. The severity of disease as well as the patient’s prognosis can be approximated using APACHE II score. Treatment results of heterogenous patient groups can be compared.

A Six Year Prospective Study of Fibrinogen and Other Risk Factors Associated with Mortality in Stable Claudicants

1992 ◽  
Vol 68 (03) ◽  
pp. 261-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
A K Banerjee ◽  
J Pearson ◽  
E L Gilliland ◽  
D Goss ◽  
J D Lewis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Intermittent Claudication ◽  
Fibrinogen Level ◽  
Past History ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Arterial Disease ◽  
Plasma Fibrinogen ◽  
Plasma Fibrinogen Level ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Probability Of Death

SummaryA total of 333 patients with stable intermittent claudication at recruitment were followed up for 6 years to determine risk factors associated with subsequent mortality. Cardiovascular diseases were the underlying cause of death in 78% of the 114 patients who died. The strongest independent predictor of death during the follow-up period was the plasma fibrinogen level, an increase of 1 g/l being associated with a nearly two-fold increase in the probability of death within the next 6 years. Age, low ankle/brachial pressure index and a past history of myocardial infarction also increased the probability of death during the study period. The plasma fibrinogen level is a valuable index of those patients with stable intermittent claudication at high risk of early mortality. The results also provide further evidence for the involvement of fibrinogen in the pathogenesis of arterial disease.

scholarly journals Death Rate Due to COVID-19 in Alzheimer’s Disease and Frontotemporal Dementia

2020 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 537-541
Author(s):  
Jordi A. Matias-Guiu ◽  
Vanesa Pytel ◽  
Jorge Matías-Guiu
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Frontotemporal Dementia ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Relevant Factor ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
Probability Of Death

We aimed to evaluate the frequency and mortality of COVID-19 in patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD). We conducted an observational case series. We enrolled 204 patients, 15.2% of whom were diagnosed with COVID-19, and 41.9% of patients with the infection died. Patients with AD were older than patients with FTD (80.36±8.77 versus 72.00±8.35 years old) and had a higher prevalence of arterial hypertension (55.8% versus 26.3%). COVID-19 occurred in 7.3% of patients living at home, but 72.0% of those living at care homes. Living in care facilities and diagnosis of AD were independently associated with a higher probability of death. We found that living in care homes is the most relevant factor for an increased risk of COVID-19 infection and death, with AD patients exhibiting a higher risk than those with FTD.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Assessment of Roof Snow Load and the Calibration of Shape Coefficients in the Eurocodes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2984
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Conversion Factor ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
Snow Load ◽  
Shape Coefficient ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Wind Exposure ◽  
Design Values ◽  
One Year

In modern structural codes, the reference value of the snow load on roofs is commonly given as the product of the characteristic value of the ground snow load at the construction site multiplied by the shape coefficient. The shape coefficient is a conversion factor which depends on the roof geometry, its wind exposure, and its thermal properties. In the Eurocodes, the characteristic roof snow load is either defined as the value corresponding to an annual probability of exceedance of 0.02 or as a nominal value. In this paper, an improved methodology to evaluate the roof snow load characterized by a given probability of exceedance (e.g., p=0.02 in one year) is presented based on appropriate probability density functions for ground snow loads and shape coefficients, duly taking into account the influence of the roof’s geometry and its exposure to wind. In that context, the curves for the design values of the shape coefficients are provided as a function of the coefficient of variation (COVg) of the yearly maxima of the snow load on the ground expected at a given site, considering three relevant wind exposure conditions: sheltered or non-exposed, semi-sheltered or normal, and windswept or exposed. The design shape coefficients for flat and pitched roofs, obtained considering roof snow load measurements collected in Europe during the European Snow Load Research Project (ESLRP) and in Norway, are finally compared with the roof snow load provisions given in the relevant existing Eurocode EN1991-1-3:2003 and in the new version being developed (prEN1991-1-3:2020) for the “second generation” of the Eurocodes.

scholarly journals Comparison of Short- and Long-Term Prognosis between ST-Elevation and Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Frédéric Bouisset ◽  
Jean-Bernard Ruidavets ◽  
Jean Dallongeville ◽  
Marie Moitry ◽  
Michele Montaye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Confounding Factors ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
St Elevation ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
Long Term Prognosis

Background: Available data comparing long-term prognosis according to the type of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are scarce, contradictory, and outdated. Our aim was to compare short- and long-term mortality in ST-elevated (STEMI) and non-ST-elevated myocardial infarction (non-STEMI) ACS patients. Methods: Patients presenting with an inaugural ACS during the year 2006 and living in one of the three areas in France covered by the Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) registry were included. Results: A total of 1822 patients with a first ACS—1121 (61.5%) STEMI and 701 (38.5%) non-STEMI—were included in the study. At the 28-day follow-up, the mortality rates were 6.7% and 4.7% (p = 0.09) for STEMI and non-STEMI patients, respectively, and after adjustment of potential confounding factors, the 28-day probability of death was significantly lower for non-STEMI ACS patients (Odds Ratio = 0.58 (0.36–0.94), p = 0.03). At the 10-year follow-up, the death rates were 19.6% and 22.8% (p = 0.11) for STEMI and non-STEMI patients, respectively, and after adjustment of potential confounding factors, the 10-year probability of death did not significantly differ between non-STEMI and STEMI events (OR = 1.07 (0.83–1.38), p = 0.59). Over the first year, the mortality rate was 7.2%; it then decreased and stabilized at 1.7% per year between the 2nd and 10th year following ACS. Conclusion: STEMI patients have a worse vital prognosis than non-STEMI patients within 28 days following ACS. However, at the 10-year follow-up, STEMI and non-STEMI patients have a similar vital prognosis. From the 2nd year onwards following the occurrence of a first ACS, the patients become stable coronary artery disease patients with an annual mortality rate in the 2% range, regardless of the type of ACS they initially present with.

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