scholarly journals Avalanche hazard zoning in Iceland based on individual risk

2004 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 285-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
Þorsteinn Arnalds ◽  
Kristján Jónasson ◽  
Sven Sigurðsson
Keyword(s):  
Individual Risk ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
The Public ◽  
Avalanche Hazard ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Hazard Zoning ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
Using Data

AbstractAvalanche hazard is a threat to many residential areas in Iceland. In 1995 two avalanche accidents, causing a total of 34 fatalities in areas thought to be safe, prompted research on avalanche hazard assessment. A new method was developed, and in 2000 a new regulation on avalanche hazard zoning was issued. The method and regulation are based on individual risk, or annual probability of death due to avalanches. The major components of the method are the estimation of avalanche frequency, run-out distribution and vulnerability. The frequency is estimated locally for each path under consideration, but the run-out distribution is based on data from many locations, employing the concept of transferring avalanches between slopes. Finally the vulnerability is estimated using data from the 1995 avalanches. Under the new regulation, new hazard maps have been prepared for six of the most vulnerable villages in Iceland. Hazard zones are delineated using risk levels of 0.2×10–4, 0.7×10–4 and 2×10–4 a–1, with risk less than 0.2×10–4 a–1 considered acceptable. When explaining the new zoning to the public, a measure of annual individual risk that allows comparison with other risks in society has proven advantageous.

scholarly journals NEW SAFETY STANDARDS FOR COASTAL FLOOD DEFENCES IN THE NETHERLANDS

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman ◽  
Ruben Jongejan ◽  
Bob Maaskant ◽  
Han Vrijling
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Safety Policy ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Safety Standards ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Societal Risk ◽  
The Individual

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision-making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the South Western part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Actual Incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Emergent Hotspots: The Example of Hokkaido, Japan during February–March 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2392
Author(s):  
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ◽  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Sung-Mok Jung ◽  
Natalie M. Linton ◽  
Ryosuke Omori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Actual Incidence

Following the first report of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sapporo city, Hokkaido Prefecture, Japan, on 14 February 2020, a surge of cases was observed in Hokkaido during February and March. As of 6 March, 90 cases were diagnosed in Hokkaido. Unfortunately, many infected persons may not have been recognized due to having mild or no symptoms during the initial months of the outbreak. We therefore aimed to predict the actual number of COVID-19 cases in (i) Hokkaido Prefecture and (ii) Sapporo city using data on cases diagnosed outside these areas. Two statistical frameworks involving a balance equation and an extrapolated linear regression model with a negative binomial link were used for deriving both estimates, respectively. The estimated cumulative incidence in Hokkaido as of 27 February was 2,297 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 382–7091) based on data on travelers outbound from Hokkaido. The cumulative incidence in Sapporo city as of 28 February was estimated at 2233 cases (95% CI: 0–4893) based on the count of confirmed cases within Hokkaido. Both approaches resulted in similar estimates, indicating a higher incidence of infections in Hokkaido than were detected by the surveillance system. This quantification of the gap between detected and estimated cases helped to inform the public health response at the beginning of the pandemic and provided insight into the possible scope of undetected transmission for future assessments.

scholarly journals Punishment Strategies across Societies: Conventional Wisdoms Reconsidered

Games ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Ramzi Suleiman ◽  
Yuval Samid
Keyword(s):  
Public Goods ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Social Environments ◽  
Public Goods Game ◽  
The Public ◽  
Free Riders ◽  
The World ◽  
Emergence Of Cooperation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Cost

Experiments using the public goods game have repeatedly shown that in cooperative social environments, punishment makes cooperation flourish, and withholding punishment makes cooperation collapse. In less cooperative social environments, where antisocial punishment has been detected, punishment was detrimental to cooperation. The success of punishment in enhancing cooperation was explained as deterrence of free riders by cooperative strong reciprocators, who were willing to pay the cost of punishing them, whereas in environments in which punishment diminished cooperation, antisocial punishment was explained as revenge by low cooperators against high cooperators suspected of punishing them in previous rounds. The present paper reconsiders the generality of both explanations. Using data from a public goods experiment with punishment, conducted by the authors on Israeli subjects (Study 1), and from a study published in Science using sixteen participant pools from cities around the world (Study 2), we found that: 1. The effect of punishment on the emergence of cooperation was mainly due to contributors increasing their cooperation, rather than from free riders being deterred. 2. Participants adhered to different contribution and punishment strategies. Some cooperated and did not punish (‘cooperators’); others cooperated and punished free riders (‘strong reciprocators’); a third subgroup punished upward and downward relative to their own contribution (‘norm-keepers’); and a small sub-group punished only cooperators (‘antisocial punishers’). 3. Clear societal differences emerged in the mix of the four participant types, with high-contributing pools characterized by higher ratios of ‘strong reciprocators’, and ‘cooperators’, and low-contributing pools characterized by a higher ratio of ‘norm keepers’. 4. The fraction of ‘strong reciprocators’ out of the total punishers emerged as a strong predictor of the groups’ level of cooperation and success in providing the public goods.

scholarly journals Paranoid styles and innumeracy: implications of a conspiracy mindset on Europeans' misperceptions about immigrants

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Sergio Martini ◽  
Mattia Guidi ◽  
Francesco Olmastroni ◽  
Linda Basile ◽  
Rossella Borri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Factors ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Common Phenomenon ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
The Public ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Socio Demographic Factors ◽  
Influence Perceptions ◽  
Western Democracies

Abstract Innumeracy, that is, the inability to deal with numbers and provide correct estimates about political issues, is reported to be widespread among the public. Yet, despite the recognition that a conspiracy mindset is an increasingly common phenomenon in Western democracies, this has not been considered as a potential correlate of innumeracy. Using data from an online sample of respondents across 10 European countries, we show that those with a higher propensity to hold a conspiracy worldview tend to overestimate the actual share of the immigrant population living in their own country. This association holds true when accounting for country heterogeneity and other cognitive, affective and socio-demographic factors. Employing a comparative design and refined measurements, the article contributes to our understanding of how a conspiracy mentality may influence perceptions of relevant political facts, questioning basic processes of democratic accountability.

A Psychological Process of Bureaucratic Whistleblowing: Applying the Theory of Planned Behavior

2021 ◽  
pp. 027507402110033
Author(s):  
Hongseok Lee ◽  
Minsung Michael Kang ◽  
Sun Young Kim
Keyword(s):  
Theory Of Planned Behavior ◽  
Planned Behavior ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Structural Equation Models ◽  
Behavioral Control ◽  
Perceived Behavioral Control ◽  
Psychological Process ◽  
Public Employees ◽  
The Public ◽  
Using Data

Whistleblowing is a psychological process that involves the calculation of risks and benefits. While there exists a broad range of research on whistleblowing in the public sector, previous studies have not examined its entire process due to the limited focus on either whistleblowing intention or whistleblowing behavior. This study aims to fill this gap by applying the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to the whistleblowing context. Specifically, we examine how individual beliefs about the likely consequences of whistleblowing (attitude toward whistleblowing), others’ expectations about whistleblowing (subjective norm), and the capability of blowing the whistle (perceived behavioral control) influence public employees’ actual whistleblowing by way of their intention to report wrongdoings. A series of structural equation models are tested using data from the 2010 Merit Principles Survey. The findings show that the more the employees perceive that the consequences of whistleblowing are important, the more the key referents support whistleblowing, and the more the protections for whistleblowers are available, the more likely are their intentions to disclose wrongdoings and then actually engage in whistleblowing behavior. We conduct additional analyses for internal and external whistleblowers separately and find that there are both meaningful similarities and differences between the two groups. This study provides support for the validity of TPB as a theoretical framework for better understanding and explicating the psychological process of bureaucratic whistleblowing.

scholarly journals Electoral Incentives and the Allocation of Public Funds

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederico Finan ◽  
Maurizio Mazzocco
Keyword(s):  
Electoral System ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Public Funds ◽  
Term Limit ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Electoral Incentives ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The One ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Politicians allocate public resources in ways that maximize political gains, and potentially at the cost of lower welfare. In this paper, we quantify these welfare costs in the context of Brazil’s federal legislature, which grants its members a budget to fund public projects within their states. Using data from the state of Roraima, we estimate a model of politicians’ allocation decisions and find that 26.8% of the public funds allocated by legislators are distorted relative to a social planner’s allocation. We then use the model to simulate three potential policy reforms to the electoral system: the adoption of approval voting, imposing a one-term limit, and redistricting. We find that a one-term limit and redistricting are both effective at reducing distortions. The one-term limit policy, however, increases corruption, which makes it a welfare-reducing policy.

Audit Assessment of the Effectiveness of Public Procurement Procedures

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. s085-s107
Author(s):  
Iryna Drozd ◽  
Mariia Pysmenna ◽  
Nataliia Pohribna ◽  
Nataliya Zdyrko ◽  
Anna Kulish
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Individual Values ◽  
State Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Efficiency Cost ◽  
Procurement Procedure ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Risk Parameters

The article seeks describing the benefits and challenges faced by auditors in assessing the effectiveness of public procurement procedures in terms of applying the methodology for calculating efficiency, economy and effectiveness, taking into account the risks of procurement in e-auctions. Quantitative risk parameters are calculated using data of probabilistic indicators of procurement risk assessment according to the ratio of the number of relevant procedures (sub-threshold and above-threshold) to the total number of procurement procedures. Statistical valuation methods are used for the cost risk assessments and calculation of the aggregate risk indicator of public procurement. The calculations are performed using the data of the open e-procurement system ProZorro for all announced procurements in 2018-2019. We analyzed the methods, indicators and the extent to which the study of the public procurement effectiveness via bibliographic and case studies is performed. As a result, the majority of methods cover four components of assessing the public procurement efficiency - targeted efficiency, cost-effectiveness, organizational efficiency, efficiency of budget expenditures for public procurement. This does not provide an assessment of the automated systems’ impact on the procurement procedures results and on possible savings due to the use of certain procurement procedures. To comprehensively assess the procurement efficiency in e-bidding, the authors propose considering four key risks: the risk of cancellation of the procurement procedure, the risk that the procurement procedure will not take place, the risk of appealing the procurement, the risk of disqualification. As a result of risks calculations under the sub-threshold and above-threshold procurement, individual values of risks and their aggregate indicator are determined. This will adjust the scope of audit procedures to verify individual procurements and identify weaknesses in the procurement management system. We believe that the methodology of auditing the procurement effectiveness, taking into account the quantitative and qualitative parameters of procurement risks, will be a useful audit tool to determine the effectiveness of the use of public funds under individual procurements and identify areas of cost-effectiveness for the state budget funds.

The Public Sector Mediation Process

1978 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. Kochan ◽  
Todd Jick
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Municipal Governments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Situational Characteristics ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

This paper develops and tests a model of the labor mediation process using data from a sample of negotiations involving municipal governments and police and firefighter unions in the State of New York. The test of the model also incorporates an estimate of the impact of a change in the statutory impasse procedures governing these groups. The model examines the impact of (1) alternative sources of impasse, (2) situational characteristics, (3) strategies of the mediators, and (4) personal characteristics of the mediators on the probability of settlement, percentage of issues resolved in mediation, movement or compromising behavior, and the tendency to hold back concessions in mediation. The results indicate that the change in the impasse procedure had a marginal affect on the probability of settlement in the small to medium cities in the sample but little or no effect on the larger cities. Furthermore, a number of other measures of the sources of impasse and mediator strategies and characteristics had a stronger impact on the effectiveness of the mediation process than the nature of the impasse procedure.

scholarly journals Strategi Humas Universitas Negeri Makassar Dalam Meningkatkan Citra Positif Masyarakat

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Risma Niswaty ◽  
Sri Wulandari ◽  
Sirajuddin Saleh ◽  
Muh. Rizal S
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Mutual Understanding ◽  
State University ◽  
Data Presentation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
Using Data

This study aims to determine the public relations strategy of Makassar State University in increasing the positive image of Makassar State University in the community. To find out these objectives, the researchers used a type of qualitative descriptive research. The informants in this study were as many as five people using data collection techniques carried out through observation, interviews and documentation. Data obtained from research results are processed using data analysis techniques consisting of data reduction, data presentation and conclusion drawing. The results showed that Public Relations devised a strategy so that the function could run in accordance with the objectives of Makassar State University, among others, trying to create a conducive climate between institutions and the public in order to do persuasive and educative approaches to the public, trying to create two-way communication by disseminating information from institutions to public parties. educate and provide information, in order to create mutual understanding, respect, understanding and also strive to foster harmonious relations between organizations and various groups, both in and out relations to enhance cooperation. Public Relations seeks to socialize the Makassar State University mission to be accepted or received support from the public / public.

scholarly journals THE PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS TOWARDS SORENG DANCE AT LEMAHIRENG VILLAGE BAWEN, SEMARANG

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Restu Lanjari ◽  
Anis Kairunisa
Keyword(s):  
Public Perception ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sociological Approach ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Approach Method ◽  
Using Data ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Village

Soreng dance is a kind of populist dance in the village Lemahireng. Dance Soreng describe the morale of the troops brave choice soldiers prepared for war games. Issues examined in this study are: Public perception of the Dance in the Village Lemahireng Soreng Bawen District of Semarang District. Goals to be achieved in this research is to determine the public perception in the village Lemahireng Bawen District of Semarang District and to determine the measures to be undertaken by the Department of Education and Culture. This study uses qualitative research methods and conduct research with a sociological approach method. Data were analyzed using data reduction, data presentation and conclusion. The results showed that of some perceptions obtained from the community about Tari Soreng. Perception is not present in the community to support children age (12-17 years) and younger age (17-25 years) and that support tends society in old age (25-85 years). Factors that affect the public perception of dance in the village Soreng Lemahireng Bawen District of Semarang District is the background for the birth of the perception of the community as a high level of education makes way people view more open and modern. The effort to do Office of Education and Culture of Semarang District is to provide guidance Dance Soreng should start with their own community in their respective regions, also carried out by a group of community Soreng kridho Wargo budhoyo, one form of effective formation is to hold a festival or competition. The conclusions of the study are: Problems sector in the public perception depends on your viewpoint and how to view an art. Dance Soreng perception of change in different elements of society Lemahireng village along with the advancement of age. Suggestions for the Education and Culture District of Semarang, to further maximize conservation efforts in the utilization of Dance Soreng in science and tourism. The younger generation is expected to be more easily studied dance Soreng and is expected to preserve and develop it.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document