Predictability of Time Averages: Part I: Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means

1984 ◽  
pp. 109-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Monthly Means ◽  
Time Averages

scholarly journals Discontinuous Daily Temperatures in the WATCH Forcing Datasets

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 465-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henning W. Rust ◽  
Tim Kruschke ◽  
Andreas Dobler ◽  
Madlen Fischer ◽  
Uwe Ulbrich
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Climatic Research Unit ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Monthly Means ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The Water and Global Change (WATCH) forcing datasets have been created to support the use of hydrological and land surface models for the assessment of the water cycle within climate change studies. They are based on 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) or ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) with temperatures (among other variables) adjusted such that their monthly means match the monthly temperature dataset from the Climatic Research Unit. To this end, daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures within one calendar month have been subjected to a correction involving monthly means of the respective month. As these corrections can be largely different for adjacent months, this procedure potentially leads to implausible differences in daily temperatures across the boundaries of calendar months. We analyze day-to-day temperature fluctuations within and across months and find that across-months differences are significantly larger, mostly in the tropics and frigid zones. Average across-months differences in daily mean temperature are typically between 10% and 40% larger than their corresponding within-months average temperature differences. However, regions with differences up to 200% can be found in tropical Africa. Particularly in regions where snowmelt is a relevant player for hydrology, a few degrees Celsius difference can be decisive for triggering this process. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the same regions, but in a less severe way.

scholarly journals On Takens’ last problem: tangencies and time averages near heteroclinic networks

Nonlinearity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1876-1910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel S Labouriau ◽  
Alexandre A P Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
Time Averages

scholarly journals Amines in boreal forest air at SMEAR II station in Finland

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6367-6380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marja Hemmilä ◽  
Heidi Hellén ◽  
Aki Virkkula ◽  
Ulla Makkonen ◽  
Arnaud P. Praplan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Gas Phase ◽  
Particle Number ◽  
Detection Limits ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Monthly Means ◽  
Ammonium Ions ◽  
Quadrupole Mass ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Diurnal Variability

Abstract. We measured amines in boreal forest air in Finland both in gas and particle phases with 1 h time resolution using an online ion chromatograph (instrument for Measuring AeRosols and Gases in Ambient Air – MARGA) connected to an electrospray ionization quadrupole mass spectrometer (MS). The developed MARGA-MS method was able to separate and detect seven different amines: monomethylamine (MMA), dimethylamine (DMA), trimethylamine (TMA), ethylamine (EA), diethylamine (DEA), propylamine (PA), and butylamine (BA). The detection limits of the method for amines were low (0.2–3.1 ng m−3), the accuracy of IC-MS analysis was 11–37 %, and the precision 10–15 %. The proper measurements in the boreal forest covered about 8 weeks between March and December 2015. The amines were found to be an inhomogeneous group of compounds, showing different seasonal and diurnal variability. Total MMA (MMA(tot)) peaked together with the sum of ammonia and ammonium ions already in March. In March, monthly means for MMA were < 2.4 and 6.8 ± 9.1 ng m−3 in gas and aerosol phases, respectively, and for NH3 and NH4+ these were 52 ± 16 and 425 ± 371 ng m−3, respectively. Monthly medians in March for MMA(tot), NH3, and NH4+ were < 2.4, 19 and 90 ng m−3, respectively. DMA(tot) and TMA(tot) had summer maxima indicating biogenic sources. We observed diurnal variation for DMA(tot) but not for TMA(tot). The highest concentrations of these compounds were measured in July. Then, monthly means for DMA were < 3.1 and 8.4 ± 3.1 ng m−3 in gas and aerosol phases, respectively, and for TMA these were 0.4 ± 0.1 and 1.8 ± 0.5 ng m−3. Monthly medians in July for DMA were below the detection limit (DL) and 4.9 ng m−3 in gas and aerosol phases, respectively, and for TMA these were 0.4 and 1.4 ng m−3. When relative humidity of air was > 90 %, gas-phase DMA correlated well with 1.1–2 nm particle number concentration (R2=0.63) suggesting that it participates in atmospheric clustering. EA concentrations were low all the time. Its July means were < 0.36 and 0.4 ± 0.4 ng m−3 in gas and aerosol phases, respectively, but individual concentration data correlated well with monoterpene concentrations in July. Monthly means of PA and BA were below detection limits at all times.

Ultradian rhythms of autonomic, cardiovascular, and neuroendocrine systems are related in humans

1996 ◽  
Vol 270 (4) ◽  
pp. R873-R887 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. S. Shannahoff-Khalsa ◽  
B. Kennedy ◽  
F. E. Yates ◽  
M. G. Ziegler
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Power ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Autonomic Tone ◽  
Ejection Time ◽  
Index Stroke Volume ◽  
Nasal Cycle ◽  
Index Stroke ◽  
Fast Orthogonal Search ◽  
Time Averages ◽  
Ventricular Ejection Time

Autonomic, cardiovascular, and neuroendocrine activities were monitored for 5-6 h in 10 normal adult resting humans (8 males, 2 females). The nasal cycle, a measure of lateralized autonomic tone, was measured at 4 Hz. Impedance cardiography (BoMed NCCOM3) was used to measure cardiac output, thoracic fluid index, heart rate, ejection velocity index, stroke volume, and ventricular ejection time (averages of 12 heart beats). Systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial pressures were measured with an automated cuff at 7.5-min intervals. Separate blood samples were taken every 7.5 min simultaneously from both arms with the use of indwelling venous catheters. Assays for adrenocorticotropic hormone, luteinizing hormone, norepinephrine, epinephrine, and dopamine were performed on samples from each arm. Time-series analysis, using the fast orthogonal search method of Korenberg, was used to detect variance structure. Significant spectral periods were observed in five windows at 220-340, 170-215, 115-145, 70-100, and 40-65 min. The greatest spectral power was observed in the lower frequencies, but periods at 115-145, 70-100, and 40-65 min were common across variables. Significant correlation coefficients for linear regressions of all paired variables in each subject were observed in 38.87% of the comparisons (subject range, 18.05-48-9.70%) with r > 0.30. These results suggest that either a common oscillator (the hypothalamus) or mutually entrained oscillators regulate these systems.

scholarly journals Impact of temperature field inhomogeneities on the retrieval of atmospheric species from MIPAS IR limb emission spectra

2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 1487-1507 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kiefer ◽  
E. Arnone ◽  
A. Dudhia ◽  
M. Carlotti ◽  
E. Castelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Field ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Emission Spectra ◽  
Monthly Means ◽  
Atmospheric Species ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Observation Strategy ◽  
Ch4 And N2o ◽  
Relative Differences

Abstract. We examine volume mixing ratios (vmr) retrieved from limb emission spectra recorded with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on board Envisat. In level 2 (L2) data products of three different retrieval processors, which perform one dimensional (1-D) retrievals, we find significant differences between species' profiles from ascending and descending orbit parts. The relative differences vary systematically with time of the year, latitude, and altitude. In the lower stratosphere their monthly means can reach maxima of 20% for CFC-11, CFC-12, HNO3, H2O, 10% for CH4 and N2O. Relative differences between monthly means of 1-D retrieval results and of the true atmospheric state can be expected to reach half of these percentage values, while relative differences in single vmr profiles might well exceed those numbers. Often there are no physical or chemical reasons for these differences, so they are an indicator for a problem in the data processing. The differences are generally largest at locations where the meridional temperature gradient of the atmosphere is strong. On the contrary, when performing the retrieval with a tomographic two dimensional (2-D) retrieval, L2 products generally do not show these differences. This suggests that inhomogeneities in the temperature field, and possibly in the species' fields, which are accounted for in the 2-D algorithm and not in standard 1-D processors, may cause significant deviations in the results. Inclusion of an externally given adequate temperature gradient in the forward model of a 1-D processor helps to reduce the observed differences. However, only the full tomographic 2-D approach is suitable to resolve the horizontal inhomogeneities. Implications for the use of the 1-D data, e.g. for validation, are discussed. The dependence of the ascending/descending differences on the observation strategy suggests that this problem may affect 1-D retrievals of infrared limb sounders, if the line of sight of the instrument has a significant component in the direction of the horizontal temperature variation.

scholarly journals Assessment of a vertical high-resolution distributed-temperature-sensing system in a shallow thermohaline environment

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1081-1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Suárez ◽  
J. E. Aravena ◽  
M. B. Hausner ◽  
A. E. Childress ◽  
S. W. Tyler
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Temperature Sensing ◽  
Distributed Temperature Sensing ◽  
Temperature Resolution ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Solar Pond ◽  
Salt Gradient ◽  
Time Averages ◽  
Corrosive Environments ◽  
And Storage

Abstract. In shallow thermohaline-driven lakes it is important to measure temperature on fine spatial and temporal scales to detect stratification or different hydrodynamic regimes. Raman spectra distributed temperature sensing (DTS) is an approach available to provide high spatial and temporal temperature resolution. A vertical high-resolution DTS system was constructed to overcome the problems of typical methods used in the past, i.e., without disturbing the water column, and with resistance to corrosive environments. This paper describes a method to quantitatively assess accuracy, precision and other limitations of DTS systems to fully utilize the capacity of this technology, with a focus on vertical high-resolution to measure temperatures in shallow thermohaline environments. It also presents a new method to manually calibrate temperatures along the optical fiber achieving significant improved resolution. The vertical high-resolution DTS system is used to monitor the thermal behavior of a salt-gradient solar pond, which is an engineered shallow thermohaline system that allows collection and storage of solar energy for a long period of time. The vertical high-resolution DTS system monitors the temperature profile each 1.1 cm vertically and in time averages as small as 10 s. Temperature resolution as low as 0.035 °C is obtained when the data are collected at 5-min intervals.

scholarly journals Observatory crustal magnetic biases during CHAMP satellite mission

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 495-508
Author(s):  
G. Verbanac ◽  
M. Mandea ◽  
M. Bandić ◽  
S. Subašić
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
External Field ◽  
Personal Communication ◽  
Field Pattern ◽  
Monthly Means ◽  
Satellite Mission ◽  
Champ Satellite ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Oscillatory Pattern ◽  
Short Period

Abstract. Taking advantage of nine years of CHAMP satellite mission (June 2000–August 2009), we investigate the temporal evolution of the observatory monthly crustal magnetic biases. To determine biases we compute X (northward), Y (eastward) and Z (vertically downward) monthly means from 42 observatory one-minute or hourly values, and compare them to synthetic monthly means obtained from a GRIMM3 core field model (V. Lesur, personal communication, 2014). Both short period variations and long term trends in the monthly bias time series are analyzed. A comparison with biases based on MAGSAT and Ørsted satellite data, related to the 1979.92 and 1992.92 epochs is performed. Generally, the larger biases averaged over nine years and the larger differences between biases based on different models are found in Z component. This can be the signature of the induced magnetic fields. Although annual trends in most bias series are observed, no clear evidence that the constant crustal field changed significantly over the studied period is found. Time series of monthly biases exhibit distinct oscillatory pattern in the whole time span, which we assign to the external field contributions. The amplitudes of these variations are linked with the phase of the solar cycle, being significantly larger in the period 2000–2005 than in the period 2006–2009. Clear semi-annual variations are evident in all components, with extremes in spring and fall months of each year. Common external field pattern is found for European monthly biases. A dependence of the bias monthly variations on geomagnetic latitudes is not found for the non-European observatories. The results from this study represent a base to further exploit the observatory and repeat stations magnetic biases together with the data from the new satellite mission SWARM.

scholarly journals A systematic assessment of water vapor products in the Arctic: from instantaneous measurements to monthly means

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 4829-4856
Author(s):  
Susanne Crewell ◽  
Kerstin Ebell ◽  
Patrick Konjari ◽  
Mario Mech ◽  
Tatiana Nomokonova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Characterization ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Monthly Means ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Retrieval Algorithms ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Water vapor is an important component in the water and energy cycle of the Arctic. Especially in light of Arctic amplification, changes in water vapor are of high interest but are difficult to observe due to the data sparsity of the region. The ACLOUD/PASCAL campaigns performed in May/June 2017 in the Arctic North Atlantic sector offers the opportunity to investigate the quality of various satellite and reanalysis products. Compared to reference measurements at R/V Polarstern frozen into the ice (around 82∘ N, 10∘ E) and at Ny-Ålesund, the integrated water vapor (IWV) from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) L2PPFv6 shows the best performance among all satellite products. Using all radiosonde stations within the region indicates some differences that might relate to different radiosonde types used. Atmospheric river events can cause rapid IWV changes by more than a factor of 2 in the Arctic. Despite the relatively dense sampling by polar-orbiting satellites, daily means can deviate by up to 50 % due to strong spatio-temporal IWV variability. For monthly mean values, this weather-induced variability cancels out, but systematic differences dominate, which particularly appear over different surface types, e.g., ocean and sea ice. In the data-sparse central Arctic north of 84∘ N, strong differences of 30 % in IWV monthly means between satellite products occur in the month of June, which likely result from the difficulties in considering the complex and changing surface characteristics of the melting ice within the retrieval algorithms. There is hope that the detailed surface characterization performed as part of the recently finished Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) will foster the improvement of future retrieval algorithms.

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