The most extreme heat waves in Amazonia happened under extreme dryness

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duarte F. Costa ◽  
Helber B. Gomes ◽  
Maria Cristina L. Silva ◽  
Liming Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat

Abstract P069: Heat, Heat Waves and Hospital Admissions in Indianapolis, Indiana

Circulation ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Apparent Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Background: The association between heat and hospital admissions is well studied, but in Indiana where the regulatory agencies cites lack of evidence for global climate change, local evidence of such an association is critical for Indiana to mitigate the impact of increasing heat. Methods: Using a distributed-lag non-linear model, we studied the effects of moderate (31.7 °C or 90 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)), severe (33.5 °C or 95 th percentile of daily mean apparent temperature (AT)) and extreme (36.4 °C or 99 th percentile of AT) heat on hospital admissions (June-August 2007-2012) for cardiovascular (myocardial infarction, myocardial infarction, heart failure) and heat-related diseases in Indianapolis, Indiana located in Marion County. We also examined the added effects of moderate heat waves (AT above the 90 th percentile lasting 2-6 days), severe heat waves (AT above the 95 th percentile lasting 2-6 days) and extreme heat waves (AT above the 99 th percentile lasting 2-6 days). In sensitivity analysis, we tested robustness of our results to 1) different temperature and lag structures and 2) temperature metrics (daily min, max and diurnal temperature range). Results: The relative risks of moderate heat, relative to 29.2°C (75 th percentile of AT), on admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF), and heat-related diseases (HD) were 0.98 (0.67, 1.44), 6.28 (1.48, 26.6), 1.38 (0.81, 2.36) and 1.73 (0.58, 5.11). The relative risk of severe heat on admissions for CVD, MI, HF, and HD were 0.93 (0.60, 1.43), 4.46 (0.85, 23.4), 1.30 (0.72, 2.34) and 2.14 (0.43, 10.7). The relative risk of extreme heat were 0.79 (0.26, 2.39), 0.11 (0.087, 1.32), 0.68 (0.18, 2.61), and 0.32 (0.005, 19.5). We also observed statistically significant added effects of moderate heat waves lasting 4 or 6 days on hospital admission for MI and HD and extreme heat waves lasting 4 days on hospital admissions for HD. Results were strengthened for people older than 65. Conclusions: Moderate heat wave lasting 4-6 days were associated with increased hospital admissions for MI and HD diseases and extreme heat wave lasting 4 days were associated with increased admissions for HD.

scholarly journals An underestimated record breaking event: why summer 1540 was very likely warmer than 2003

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 2695-2730
Author(s):  
O. Wetter ◽  
C. Pfister
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Net Photosynthesis ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Drought Effect ◽  
Independent Evidence ◽  
Maximum Latewood Density ◽  
Latewood Density ◽  
Warm Anomaly ◽  
Time Of Harvest

Abstract. This paper challenges the argument obtained from the analysis of grape harvest (GHD) and maximum latewood density (MXD) data that the 2003 heat-wave in Western Europe was the most extreme warm anomaly in the last millennium. We have evidence that the heat and drought in 1540 known from numerous contemporary narrative documentary reports is not adequately reflected in these estimates. Vines severely suffered from the extreme heat and drought which led vine-growers to postpone the harvest in hope for a rain spell. At the time of harvest many grapes had already become raisins. Likewise, many trees suffered from premature leaf fall probably as a result of a decreased net photosynthesis, as it was measured in 2003. To more realistically assess 1540's spring–summer (AMJJ) temperature we present a new Swiss series of critically evaluated GHD. Basing on three different approaches considering the drought effect on vines, temperatures were assessed between 4.3 °C and 6.3 °C (including the Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) of 0.52 °C) above the 1901–2000 mean which is significantly higher than the value of 2.9 °C measured in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for extreme heat-waves this result still needs to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation from independent evidence.

scholarly journals Heat Waves, the New Normal: Summertime Temperature Extremes Will Impact Animals, Ecosystems, and Human Communities

Physiology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathon H. Stillman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
New Normal ◽  
The Past ◽  
Intense Heat ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

A consequence of climate change is the increased frequency and severity of extreme heat waves. This is occurring now as most of the warmest summers and most intense heat waves ever recorded have been during the past decade. In this review, I describe the ways in which animals and human populations are likely to respond to increased extreme heat, suggest how to study those responses, and reflect on the importance of those studies for countering the devastating impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Excess Mortality in Istanbul during Extreme Heat Waves between 2013 and 2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (22) ◽  
pp. 4348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Günay Can ◽  
Ümit Şahin ◽  
Uğurcan Sayılı ◽  
Marjolaine Dubé ◽  
Beril Kara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Intervention Studies ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Morbidity Risks ◽  
Excess Deaths

Heat waves are one of the most common direct impacts of anthropogenic climate change and excess mortality their most apparent impact. While Turkey has experienced an increase in heat wave episodes between 1971 and 2016, no epidemiological studies have examined their potential impacts on public health so far. In this study excess mortality in Istanbul attributable to extreme heat wave episodes between 2013 and 2017 is presented. Total excess deaths were calculated using mortality rates across different categories, including age, sex, and cause of death. The analysis shows that three extreme heat waves in the summer months of 2015, 2016, and 2017, which covered 14 days in total, significantly increased the mortality rate and caused 419 excess deaths in 23 days of exposure. As climate simulations show that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Europe region to the increased intensity of heat waves until the end of the 21st century, further studies about increased mortality and morbidity risks due to heat waves in Istanbul and other cities, as well as intervention studies, are necessary.

scholarly journals Heat Vulnerability and Heat Island Mitigation in the United States

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 558 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jungmin Lim ◽  
Mark Skidmore
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Heat Vulnerability

Heat waves are the deadliest type of natural hazard among all weather extremes in the United States. Given the observed and anticipated increase in heat risks associated with ongoing climate change, this study examines community vulnerability to extreme heat and the degree to which heat island mitigation (HIM) actions by state/local governments reduce heat-induced fatalities. The analysis uses all heat events that occurred over the 1996–2011 period for all United States counties to model heat vulnerability. Results show that: (1) Higher income reduces extreme heat vulnerability, while poverty intensifies it; (2) living in mobile homes or rental homes heightens susceptibility to extreme heat; (3) increased heat vulnerability due to the growth of the elderly population is predicted to result in a two-fold increase in heat-related fatalities by 2030; and (4) community heat island mitigation measures reduce heat intensities and thus heat-related fatalities. Findings also show that an additional locally implemented measure reduces the annual death rate by 15%. A falsification test rules out the possibility of spurious inference on the life-saving role of heat island mitigation measures. Overall, these findings inform efforts to protect the most vulnerable population subgroups and guide future policies to counteract the growing risk of deadly heat waves.

Forecasting climate extremes to aid decisions on multi-week timescales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine de Burgh-Day ◽  
Debbie Hudson ◽  
Oscar Alves ◽  
Morwenna Griffiths ◽  
Andrew Marshall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Defensive Responses ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

<p>Extreme events such as droughts, heat waves and floods can have significant and long lasting financial, infrastructural and environmental impacts. While probabilistic seasonal outlooks are commonplace, there are relatively few probabilistic outlooks available on multiweek timescales. Additionally, many services focus on the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes – e.g., forecasts of probability of above or below median, or probability of mean conditions exceeding some threshold. These do not encompass the types of extreme events that can be the most damaging, such as several consecutive days of extreme heat, unusually large numbers of cold days in a season, or an extended period where rainfall is in the lowest decile of historical years.</p><p>Advance warning of extreme events that impact particular industries enable managers to put in place response measures which can help to reduce their losses. This can involve:</p><ul><li>Active responses which aim to reduce the severity of the impact. For example, losses in dairy production due to extreme heat can be mitigated by adjusting grazing rotations such that cows are in shadier paddocks during these events</li> <li>Defensive responses which aim to account for any losses incurred due to an event. For example, the purchase of new farm equipment can be deferred if a forecast extreme event indicates a likely unavoidable financial loss in the near future</li> </ul><p>To meet this need, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is developing a suite of forecast products communicating risk of extreme events using data from the Bureau’s new seasonal forecasting system ACCESS-S. Each prototype forecast product is trialed with external users through a webpage to assess usefulness and popularity.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew E. McKechnie ◽  
Blair O. Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Survival Times ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Hot Weather

Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150–200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

Community plan for extreme heat waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 326-328
Author(s):  
Margo Kunze ◽  
LuAnne Leistner
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat

Heat Island Effect Aggravates Mortality

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaufui V. Wong ◽  
Andrew Paddon ◽  
Alfredo Jimenez
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
The Body ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Island Effect ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
The U.S

Cases of death during heat waves are most commonly due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, with the main contribution from the negative effect of heat on the cardiovascular system. In an attempt to control the body temperature, the body’s natural instinct is to circulate large quantities of blood to the skin. However while trying to protect itself from overheating, the body actually harms itself by inducing extra strain on the heart. This excess strain has the potential to trigger a cardiac event in those with chronic health problems, such as the elderly. Those in the U.S.A. between the ages of 65 and 74 are at a higher risk of mortality during heat waves when they are single, have a history of chronic pulmonary disease, or suffer from a psychiatric disorder. In the older group, 75+, single people are again more vulnerable as well as women. The relationship of mortality and temperature creates a J-shaped function, showing a steeper slope at higher temperatures. Records show that more casualties have resulted from heat waves than hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes together. The significance of this is that the U.S. suffers the highest damage total from natural catastrophes annually. Studies held from 1989–2000 in 50 U.S. cities recorded 1.6% more deaths during cold temperature events, as opposed to a staggering 5.7% increase during heat waves. People are at risk when living in large metropolitan areas, especially those mentioned above, due to the heat island effect. Urban areas suffer heat increases from the combination of global warming effects as well as localized heat island properties. It is flawed to claim that the contribution of anthropogenic heat generation to the heat island effect is small. Analyzing the trend of extreme heat events (EHEs) between 1956 and 2005 showed an increase on average of 0.20 days/year, on a 95% confidence interval with uncertainty of ±0.6. This trend follows the recorded data for 2005 with 10 more heat events per city than in 1956. Compact cities experience an average of 5.6 days of extreme heat conditions annually, compared to that of 14.8 for sprawling cities. The regional climate, city populace, or pace of population growth however does not affect this effect. Statistics from the U.S. Census state that the U.S. population without air conditioning saw a drop of 32% from 1978 to 2005, resting at 15%. Despite the increase in air conditioning use, the positive affects of it may have run their course as a critical point may have been reached. A study done by Kalkstein through 2007 proved that the shielding effects of air conditioning reached their terminal effect in the mid-1990s. Heat-related illnesses and mortality rates have slightly decreased since 1980, regardless of the increase in temperatures. This may be in part to the increase in availability of air conditioning, and other protective measures, to the public. Protective factors have mitigated the danger of heat on those vulnerable to it, however projecting forward the heat increment related to sprawl may exceed physiologic adaptation thresholds.

scholarly journals Computation of extreme heat waves in climate models using a large deviation algorithm

2017 ◽  
Vol 115 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Ragone ◽  
Jeroen Wouters ◽  
Freddy Bouchet
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Physics ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Large Deviation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Sampling Efficiency ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations to observe those extremely rare events. In physics, chemistry, and biology, rare event algorithms have recently been developed to compute probabilities of events that cannot be observed in direct numerical simulations. Here we propose such an algorithm, specifically designed for extreme heat or cold waves, based on statistical physics. This approach gives an improvement of more than two orders of magnitude in the sampling efficiency. We describe the dynamics of events that would not be observed otherwise. We show that European extreme heat waves are related to a global teleconnection pattern involving North America and Asia. This tool opens up a wide range of possible studies to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change.

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