Phenological response to temperature variability and orography in Central Italy

AbstractEven if the sensitivity of vegetation phenology to climate change has been accepted on global and continental scales, the correlation between global warming and phenotypic variability shows a modulated answer depending on altitude, latitude, and the local seasonal thermal trend. To connect global patterns of change with local effects, we investigated the impact of the observed signal of warming found in Central Italy on two different willow species, Salix acutifolia and Salix smithiana, growing in three phenological gardens of the International Phenological Gardens’ network (IPG) located in different orographic positions. The time series of temperatures and phenological data for the period 2005–2018 were analysed first to find trends over time in the three gardens and then to correlate the recent local warming and the change in the two species phenology. The results confirmed the correlation between phenological trends and local trend of temperatures. In particular: budburst showed a trend of advancement of 1.4 days/year on average in all three gardens; flowering showed a divergent pattern between the gardens of either advancement of 1.0 days/year on average or delay of 1.1 days/year on average; while senescence showed a delay reaching even 3.3 days/year, although significant in only two gardens for both species. These trends were found to be correlated mainly with the temperatures of the months preceding the occurrence of the phase, with a shift in terms of days of the year (DOY) of the two species. Our conclusion is that the observed warming in Central Italy played a key role in controlling the phenophases occurrences of the two willow species, and that the orographic forcing leads to the different shift in DOY of phenophases (from 5 to 20 days) due to the local thermal forcing of the three phenological gardens.

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Willow phenological modelling at different altitudes in central Italy

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment ◽

10.1007/s10661-020-08702-7 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 192 (11) ◽

Author(s):

Fabio Orlandi ◽

Luigia Ruga ◽

Marco Fornaciari

Keyword(s):

Central Italy ◽

Historical Record ◽

Practical Application ◽

Prediction Tools ◽

Willow Species ◽

Full Flowering ◽

Phenological Modelling ◽

The Impact ◽

Vegetative Phases ◽

Different Altitudes

AbstractIn order to estimate the impact of climate change on the phenological parameters and to compare them with the historical record, a decision support system (DSS) has been applied employing a Phenological Modelling Platform. Biological observations of two willow species (Salix acutifolia and smithiana Willd) in 3 gardens at different altitudes located in Central Italy were utilized to identify suitable phenological models related to four main vegetative phase timings (BBCH11, BBCH91, BBCH 94, BBCH95), and male full flowering (BBCH 65) clearly identifiable in these species. The present investigation identifies the best phenological models for the main phenophases allowing their practical application as real-time monitoring and plant development prediction tools. Sigmoid model revealed high performances in simulating spring vegetative phases, BBCH11 (First leaves unfolded), and BBCH91 (Shoot and foliage growth completed). Salix acutifolia Willd. development appeared to be more related to temperature amount interpreted by phenological models in comparison to Salix smithiana Willd. above all during spring (BBCH11 and 91), probably due to a different grade of phenotypic plasticity between the 2 considered species.

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Conclusion

10.1093/oso/9780198748915.003.0010 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Manuel Fröhlich ◽

Abiodun Williams

Keyword(s):

Security Council ◽

International Context ◽

Peace And Security ◽

Executive Action ◽

Trends Over Time ◽

The Impact ◽

Over Time ◽

The Way ◽

Guiding Questions

The Conclusion returns to the guiding questions introduced in the Introduction, looking at the way in which the book’s chapters answered them. As such, it identifies recurring themes, experiences, structures, motives, and trends over time. By summarizing the result of the chapters’ research into the interaction between the Secretaries-General and the Security Council, some lessons are identified on the changing calculus of appointments, the conditions and relevance of the international context, the impact of different personalities in that interaction, the changes in agenda and composition of the Council as well as different formats of interaction and different challenges to be met in the realm of peace and security, administration, and reform, as well as concepts and norms. Taken together, they also illustrate the potential and limitations of UN executive action.

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Ontogenetic shift in the trophic role of the invasive killer shrimp Dikerogammarus villosus: a stable isotope study

Biological Invasions ◽

10.1007/s10530-021-02472-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Francesco Mancini ◽

Raffaele De Giorgi ◽

Alessandro Ludovisi ◽

Salvatrice Vizzini ◽

Giorgio Mancinelli

Keyword(s):

Dietary Habits ◽

Trophic Position ◽

Ecological Impact ◽

Central Italy ◽

Local Conditions ◽

Dikerogammarus Villosus ◽

Isotopic Signatures ◽

Depth Analysis ◽

Stable Isotope Study ◽

The Impact

AbstractThe introduction of the amphipod Dikerogammarus villosus in European fresh waters is to date recognized as a threat to the integrity of invaded communities. Predation by D. villosus on native benthic invertebrates is assumed as the key determinant of its ecological impact, yet available information describe the species as a primary consumer as well as a carnivore depending on local conditions. Here, we assessed the trophic position (TP) of D. villosus in Lake Trasimeno, a recently invaded lentic system in central Italy, using the CN isotopic signatures of individuals captured in winter spanning two orders of magnitude in body size. TP estimations were compared with those characterizing the native amphipod Echinogammarus veneris and other representative invertebrate predators. On average, D. villosus showed a trophic position higher than E. veneris, and comparable with that of odonate nymphs. An in-depth analysis revealed that large-sized individuals had a trophic position of 3.07, higher than odonates and close to that of the hirudinean predator Erpobdella octoculata, while small-sized specimens had a trophic position of 2.57, similar to that of E. veneris (2.41). These findings indicate that size-related ontogenetic shifts in dietary habits may per se vary the nature of the interaction between Dikerogammarus villosus and native invertebrates from competition to predation. Information collated from published isotopic studies corroborated the generality of our results. We conclude that intra-specific trophic flexibility may potentially amplify and make more multifaceted the impact of the species on other invertebrate species in invaded food webs.

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Evaluation of the Impact of Timber Truck Configuration and Tare Weight on Payload Efficiency: An Australian Case Study

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12070855 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 855

Author(s):

Mark W. Brown

Keyword(s):

Load Management ◽

Vehicle Design ◽

Forest Industry ◽

Post Operation ◽

Gross Vehicle Weight ◽

Australian Case ◽

Trends Over Time ◽

The Impact

The forest industry tends to plan, and model transportation costs based on the potential payload benefits of increased legal gross vehicle weight (GVW) by deploying different configurations, while payload benefits of a configuration can be significantly influenced by the vehicle design tare weight. Through this research the relative benefit of increased legal GVW of different configurations is compared across Australia over a 13-year period from 2006 to 2019, by examining data collected post operation across multiple operations. This approach is intended to offer realistic insight to real operations not influenced by observation and thus reflect long-term operating behaviour. The inclusion of the three most common configuration classes in Australian forestry over a 13-year period has also allowed the exploration of load management between configurations and potential trends over time. When considering the legal GVW and the tare weight impacts across the fleets, the semi-trailer has an 8 t payload disadvantage compared to B-Doubles and 19.6 t disadvantage compared to road trains.

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The Impact of Probability Density Functions Assessment on Model Performance for Slope Stability Analysis

Geosciences ◽

10.3390/geosciences11080322 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 322

Author(s):

Evelina Volpe ◽

Luca Ciabatta ◽

Diana Salciarini ◽

Stefania Camici ◽

Elisabetta Cattoni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Probability Density ◽

Central Italy ◽

Model Performance ◽

Probability Density Functions ◽

Slope Instability ◽

Complex Nature ◽

Density Functions ◽

Umbria Region ◽

Input Variables ◽

The Impact

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall events represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to the climate change effect on territories, as several studies demonstrate that an increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall-induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria region of central Italy. The study revealed that the use of uniform pdfs for the random input variables, often considered when a detailed geotechnical characterization for the soil is not available, could be inappropriate.

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Functional ANOVA approaches for detecting changes in air pollution during the COVID-19 pandemic

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ◽

10.1007/s00477-021-02071-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Christian Acal ◽

Ana M. Aguilera ◽

Annalina Sarra ◽

Adelia Evangelista ◽

Tonio Di Battista ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Air Quality ◽

Functional Data ◽

Central Italy ◽

Principal Component ◽

Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽

Area Of Interest ◽

Pm 10 ◽

The Impact ◽

Monitoring Stations

AbstractFaced with novel coronavirus outbreak, the most hard-hit countries adopted a lockdown strategy to contrast the spread of virus. Many studies have already documented that the COVID-19 control actions have resulted in improved air quality locally and around the world. Following these lines of research, we focus on air quality changes in the urban territory of Chieti-Pescara (Central Italy), identified as an area of criticality in terms of air pollution. Concentrations of $$\hbox {NO}_{{2}}$$ NO 2 , $$\hbox {PM}_{{10}}$$ PM 10 , $$\hbox {PM}_{2.5}$$ PM 2.5 and benzene are used to evaluate air pollution changes in this Region. Data were measured by several monitoring stations over two specific periods: from 1st February to 10 th March 2020 (before lockdown period) and from 11st March 2020 to 18 th April 2020 (during lockdown period). The impact of lockdown on air quality is assessed through functional data analysis. Our work makes an important contribution to the analysis of variance for functional data (FANOVA). Specifically, a novel approach based on multivariate functional principal component analysis is introduced to tackle the multivariate FANOVA problem for independent measures, which is reduced to test multivariate homogeneity on the vectors of the most explicative principal components scores. Results of the present study suggest that the level of each pollutant changed during the confinement. Additionally, the differences in the mean functions of all pollutants according to the location and type of monitoring stations (background vs traffic), are ascribable to the $$\hbox {PM}_{{10}}$$ PM 10 and benzene concentrations for pre-lockdown and during-lockdown tenure, respectively. FANOVA has proven to be beneficial to monitoring the evolution of air quality in both periods of time. This can help environmental protection agencies in drawing a more holistic picture of air quality status in the area of interest.

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Modelling Acacia saligna invasion on the Adriatic coastal landscape: An integrative approach using LTER data

Nature Conservation ◽

10.3897/natureconservation.34.29575 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 34 ◽

pp. 127-144 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Flavio Marzialetti ◽

Manuele Bazzichetto ◽

Silvia Giulio ◽

Alicia T.R. Acosta ◽

Angela Stanisci ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Propagule Pressure ◽

Vascular Plant ◽

Central Italy ◽

Coastal Dunes ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Theory And Practice ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Adriatic Coast ◽

The Impact

Invasive Alien Species (IAS) pose a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. Even if preventing biological invasions should be the most cost-effective way to minimise the impact of IAS on biodiversity, new efforts are necessary to identify early signs of invasion and to assess invasion risk. In this context, the implementation of invasive Species Distribution Models (iSDMs) could represent a sound instrument that merits further research. Acaciasaligna is an Australian vascular plant introduced into Europe during the last half century and is one of the most aggressive IAS in the Mediterranean basin. In this work, we model the occurrence of A.saligna in the coastal landscapes of central Italy (Adriatic coast) while accounting for the simultaneous effect of multiple factors (propagule pressure, abiotic, biotic factors). The iSDM for A.saligna was implemented on a representative tract of the Adriatic coast in central Italy (Molise region), largely included in two Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites which actively contribute to the description of the considered ecosystem status and possible future trends. By using a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with a binomial distribution of errors based on field and cartographic geo-referenced data, we examined the statistical relationship between the occurrence of A.saligna and a comprehensive set of environmental factors. The iSDM effectively captured the role of the different variables in determining the occurrence of A.saligna in the coastal dunes. Its occurrence is primarily related to Wooded dunes with Pinuspinea and/or P.pinaster (EU Habitat 2270) and distance from the sea and, to a lesser extent, with distance from roads and rivers. This research provides a first exploratory analysis of the environmental characteristics that promote the rapid growth and development of A.saligna in Italian dune ecosystems, identifying the habitats that are mainly affected by the invasive process in coastal areas and, by doing so, contributing to filling the gap between theory and practice in conservation decision-making. Finally, the LTER network benefitted from this research, confirming its relevance in providing useful information for modelling and monitoring invasion processes.

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Variability and adaptive norm in the system "man-technology-environment, MTE"

On-line Journal Naukovedenie ◽

10.15862/108tvn517 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (5) ◽

Author(s):

Ruben Kazarian ◽

Nikolay Komarov ◽

Vitaly Chulkov ◽

Dora Cazarian

Keyword(s):

Human Body ◽

Phenotypic Variability ◽

Reaction Norm ◽

Living System ◽

Human Society ◽

Enzymatic Regulation ◽

Physico Chemical ◽

Functional Control ◽

Adaptive Nature ◽

The Impact

Distinguish between hereditary (mutational and combinative) and non-hereditary (modification or phenotypic) variability in the human body. Modificational variability arises as a result of interaction with the surrounding environment, the effects of factors which different people react differently. There is the concept of "reaction norm" as the limit of modification variability, within the capabilities of a particular person. In most cases, modification is a useful adaptive response of the organism, is adaptive in nature (adaptive norm). Adaptive nature is usually inherent in modifications that are caused by the impact of typical factors of a particular environment. If the organism falls under the influence of an unusual factor (for example, exposure to chemicals and radiation), or the intensity of the usual factor is sharply increased, then non-adaptive modifications (morphoses) often manifest themselves as deformities. The wider the norm of the reaction, the higher the human adaptation potential. Unlike mutations, modifications have a different degree of resistance. Many modifications disappear soon after the factor that caused them ceases to function. Others can persist in a person throughout his life. The article considers the possibility of using the achievements of molecular and physico-chemical biology in a comprehensive study of the problem of the normal functioning of the human body in conditions of heightened activity in construction. The authors believe that it is extremely necessary to study the patterns of changes in the state of the adaptive norm of the human body at the level of the genetic apparatus, using the latest developments in nanotechnology. The possibility of enzymatic regulation of alternative ways of regulation by transhypophyseal mechanisms is considered. The concept of the norm of a living system as a hierarchy of structure and functional control is proposed. This hierarchical principle unites the levels of atomic and molecular interactions, realized at negligible distances, to the level of interactions in human society that take place at very great distances, and thanks to which society is an organized system.

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Climate Change and Fruit-Picking Tourism: Impact and Adaptation

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2016/9783646 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2016 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jun Liu ◽

Fan Chen ◽

Quansheng Ge ◽

Yunyun Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Rural Tourism ◽

Dynamic Changes ◽

Tourism Impact ◽

Phenological Data ◽

Monthly Average ◽

Fruit Maturity ◽

Tourism Activity ◽

The Impact

The purpose of this work is to present phenology as a valid indicator and methodology for monitoring and assessing the impact of climate change on plant-based tourist activities. Fruit-picking has become a popular rural tourism activity worldwide. However, fruit maturity dates (FMD) have been affected by climate change (CC), which has in turn profoundly affected fruit-picking tourism activities (FPTA). In this paper, phenological data on the FMD for 45 types of plants in 1980–2012, dates for more than 200 fruit-picking festivals, and data on monthly average air temperature in 1980–2013 were used to assess the impact of CC on FPTA by wavelet and correlation analyses. The findings indicated that the study area had been significantly affected by CC. Prevailing temperatures at one or three months prior have a decisive influence on FMD. Among the 11 plants directly related to FPTA, the FMD of four were significantly advanced, while 6-7 were significantly delayed owning to increased temperature. Of the 11 FPTA, only two had realized the impact of CC and had adjusted festival opening dates based on dynamic changes. However, a considerable number of festival activities remained fixed or scheduled on the weekends.

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Investigating triggering mechanisms for the large hailstorm event of July 10th, 2019 on the Adriatic Sea

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3662 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Antonio Ricchi ◽

Vincenzo Mazzarella ◽

Lorenzo Sangelantoni ◽

Gianluca Redaelli ◽

Rossella Ferretti

Keyword(s):

Adriatic Sea ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Central Italy ◽

Radar Data ◽

Sensitivity Study ◽

Convective Cell ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Microphysics Scheme ◽

The Balkans ◽

The Impact

<div> <p><span>A severe weather events hit Italy on July 9-10, 2019 causing heavy damages by the falling of large-size hail. A trough from Northern Europe affected Italy and the Balkans advecting cold air on the Adriatic Sea. The intrusion of relatively cold and dry air on the Adriatic Sea, in a first stage through the "Bora jets" generated by the Dinaric Alps gave rise to a frontal structure on the ground, which rapidly moved from North to South Adriatic. The large thermal gradient (also with the sea surface), the interaction with the complex orography and the coastal zone, generated several storm structures along the eastern Italian coast. In particular, on 10 July 2019 between 8UTC and 12UTC a deep convective cell (probably a supercell) developed along the coast North of the city of Pescara, producing intense rainfall (accumulated rainfall reaching 130 mm/3h) and a violent hailstorm with hailstones larger than 10 cm in diameter. The storm quickly moved southward, evolving into a complex multicellular structure clearly visible by observing radar data. In this work the frontal dynamics and the genesis of the storm cell are investigated using the numerical model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting system). Numerical experiments are carried out using a 1 km grid on Central Italy, initialized using the ECMWF dataset and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) taken by MFS-CMEMS Copernicus dataset. The sensitivity study investigated both the impact of the initial conditions, the quality and the anomaly of the SST on the Adriatic basin in those days. Furthermore, in order to quantify the importance of the use of different microphysics, Planetary boundary Layer (PBL) and radiative schemes, several experiments are performed. The role of orography in the development and location of the convective cell is also investigated. Preliminary results show that initialization and SST played a fundamental role. In particular, the initialization several hours before the event, coupled with a detailed SST allows to correctly reproduce the atmospheric fields. The microphysics scheme turned out to play a key role for this event by showing a significant greater impact than the PBL, in terms of frontal genesis on both the synoptic and local scale. </span></p> </div>

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